Environmental impacts of two kind of ponds for shrimp production at Northwest Mexico

Aquaculture offers a major opportunity for the economic development of Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico. The severely limited freshwater supply and the geographic isolation of the state place limits on other productive activities. Despite the aridity, the natural vegetation of BCS is diverse and structurally complex with a high percentage (20%) of endemic species. In this work we compare the environmental impacts produced by two kinds of aquaculture systems: coastal ponds vs. inland ponds. Construction and operation of coastal ponds does not require destruction of the natural vegetation and, as is true for inland ponds. Coastal ponds are also compatible with conservation of mangroves, sea grasses and sensitive habitats for fish and mollusks. To reduce the negative impacts of aquaculture and to protect the vegetation of Baja California Sur, we recommend the use of coastal ponds for shrimp production.     

A Screening-Level Assessment of Lead, Cadmium, and Zinc in Fish and Crayfish from Northeastern Oklahoma, USA

The objective of this study was to evaluate potential human and ecological risks associated with metals in fish and crayfish from mining in the Tri-States Mining District (TSMD). Crayfish (Orconectes spp.) and fish of six frequently consumed species (common carp, Cyprinus carpio; channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus; flathead catfish, Pylodictis olivaris; largemouth bass, Micropterus salmoides; spotted bass, M. punctulatus; and white crappie, Pomoxis annularis) were collected in 2001--2002 from the Oklahoma waters of the Spring River (SR) and Neosho River (NR), which drain the TSMD. Samples from a mining-contaminated site in eastern Missouri and from reference sites were also analyzed. Individual fish were prepared for human consumption in the manner used locally by Native Americans (headed, eviscerated, and scaled) and analyzed for lead, cadmium, and zinc. Whole crayfish were analyzed as composite samples of 5--60 animals. Metals concentrations were typically higher in samples from sites most heavily affected by mining and lowest in reference samples. Within the TSMD, most metals concentrations were higher at sites on the SR than on the NR and were typically highest in common carp and crayfish than in other taxa. Higher concentrations and greater risk were associated with fish and crayfish from heavily contaminated SR tributaries than the SR or NR mainstems. Based on the results of this and previous studies, the human consumption of carp and crayfish could be restricted based on current criteria for lead, cadmium, and zinc, and the consumption of channel catfish could be restricted due to lead. Metals concentrations were uniformly low in Micropterus spp. and crappie and would not warrant restriction, however. Some risk to carnivorous avian wildlife from lead and zinc in TSMD fish and invertebrates was also indicated, as was risk to the fish themselves. Overall, the wildlife assessment is consistent with previously reported biological effects attributed to metals from the TSMD. The results demonstrate the potential for adverse effects in fish, wildlife, and humans and indicate that further investigation of human health and ecological risks, to include additional exposure pathways and endpoints, is warranted.This study was conducted by the Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and cooperating organizations and government agencies. All field and laboratory procedures conformed to the “Guidelines for the use of fishes in research” of the American Fisheries Society (AFS), Institute of Fishery Research Biologists (AIFRB), and American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists (ASIH) Use of Fishes in Research Committee (AFS, AIFRB, and ASIH 2004), and with all USGS and CERC guidelines for the humane treatment of test organisms during culture and experimentation. Use of trade names does not constitute USGS or U.S. government endorsement.     

毒死蜱对我国南方稻区水域中12种淡水鱼的毒性

毒死蜱作为稻田常用农药,普遍存在于稻区沟渠、池塘和河流中,从而对生活在其中的鱼类具有潜在风险。通过短期暴露试验,比较了毒死蜱在纯水、水-沉积物体系中对淡水鱼的毒性效应,进一步研究了毒死蜱在不同鱼体内的生物富集作用,以及对鱼脑Ach E活性的影响。试验结果表明:毒死蜱对12种淡水鱼均表现为高毒或剧毒,最敏感的是太阳鱼,但体系中沉积物的存在会通过吸附作用降低农药对鱼类的毒性;毒死蜱在鱼体内表现为中等或高富集性,其中斑马鱼的富集系数最大;毒死蜱对鱼脑Ach E酶活性有明显抑制作用,其中以虹鳟最敏感。研究结果为稻田常用农药对水生态环境中鱼类安全的风险性评价提供了科学依据。     

Sensory ecology in a changing world: salinity alters conspecific recognition in an amphidromous fish, Pseudomugil signifer

Group fission and fusion processes are driven by state dependence, risk and the availability of information from others. Yet the availability of information changes under different environmental conditions, thus aiding or inhibiting group formation and maintenance. Chemical cues provide information on the location of individuals and can act as a mechanism for individuals to group together, although they can be greatly affected by environmental conditions. Using a flow channel, we studied how one shoaling fish species, the Pacific blue-eye (Pseudomugil signifer), responds to conspecific chemical cues (CCCs) in different environmental conditions (salinities). This species lives in estuarine environments, ranging in salinity from fresh to fully marine. P. signifer responded to CCCs in freshwater but not in saltwater. Furthermore, P. signifer did not respond to saltwater with CCCs added from freshwater. It took significantly longer for fish in saltwater, than in freshwater, to locate and join a shoal when only CCCs from the shoal were present. Finally, fish formed more cohesive shoals in freshwater than in brackish or saltwater. These results suggest that these fish do not rely on chemical cues in saltwater to locate conspecific shoals. Furthermore, the reduced amounts of these cues in saltwater may inhibit the maintenance of tight shoal structures. We suggest that fish utilise different sensory modalities in fresh or saltwater in order to locate one another, or the social structure of these groups is fundamentally different between these two water types. The importance of this study in relation to understanding how animals utilise and change different sensory modalities in varying environmental conditions is discussed.     

Habitat loss through disruption of constrained dispersal networks.

Large losses of habitat could be caused by land use change that disrupts the dispersal networks used by migratory species. We assessed the relative losses of habitat for diadromous fish (i.e., those migrating between sea and freshwater) due to physical barriers, degradation of migratory passage associated with catchment land use, and site-scale land use characteristics on the West Coast, South Island, New Zealand. Fish occurrence, land use data, and river network models were analyzed in a GIS and subjected to a three-level hierarchical analysis. To identify accessible habitat not restricted by physical barriers, we used the migratory distance and maximum downstream slope encountered to identify accessible sites in least-impacted catchments and applied the results to all catchments within the study area. For two fish species, banded kokopu (Galaxias fasciatus) and koaro (G. brevipinnis), sites modeled as accessible using logistic regression in least-impacted catchments were then used to assess the impacts of catchment-scale deforestation and downstream land uses on habitat loss. Finally, sites not restricted by physical barriers or land-use-related impacts on migratory passage were used to model the effects of local land use. The models indicated that koaro and banded kokopu potentially had access to 28,000 km and 5300 km, respectively, of the 40,600 km of streams within the study area. Impacts due to intensive agricultural land use downstream in catchments affecting migratory passage were predicted to reduce the accessible habitats for koaro and banded kokopu by 55% and 70%, respectively. Local land use further reduced koaro and banded kokopu habitats to 70% and 90%, respectively, of total accessible habitat. Habitat lost through disruption of the dispersal network was disproportionately large because potentially useable habitat was rendered inaccessible.     

Vectors and Timing of Freshwater Invasions in Great Britain

Abstract: Nonindigenous freshwater species cause large ecological and economic impacts in Great Britain. In response the government is in the process of implementing a broad, new nonindigenous species strategy. We assembled a list of all nonindigenous freshwater species that are or were established in Great Britain, their date of first record, and their vector of introduction. This list provides a baseline against which the success of new policies can be assessed. Because the biota of Great Britain has been well recorded, our results provide a highly resolved case study of the vectors and drivers of species transport and establishment. A total of 117 nonindigenous freshwater species are currently established in Great Britain; a further 17 species were once established but are now extirpated. Between 1800 and 2000 the number of established species increased at an accelerating rate, and this increase correlated with the growth in human population and gross domestic product. The construction of large reservoirs in Great Britain occurred over a short period and overlapped high rates of new species establishment, indicating that habitat modification may have been an important driver of establishment. Nonindigenous species now account for 24% of fish, 12% of plant, 54% of amphibian, and 88% of decapod crustacean freshwater species richness in Great Britain. The ornamental trades have been responsible for the greatest percentages of intentionally (73%) and unintentionally (34%) introduced species that have become established. Shipping and aquaculture have also been strong vectors. These vectors should be prioritized for management within the new nonindigenous species strategy.     

Global conservation status of sponges

Sponges are important for maintaining ecosystem function and integrity of marine and freshwater benthic communities worldwide. Despite this, there has been no assessment of their current global conservation status. We assessed their status, accounting for the distribution of research effort; patterns of temporal variation in sponge populations and assemblages; the number of sponges on threatened species lists; and the impact of environmental pressures. Sponge research effort has been variable; marine sponges in the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean and freshwater sponges in Europe and North America have received the most attention. Although sponge abundance has increased in some locations since 1990, these were typically on coral reefs, in response to declines in other benthic organisms, and restricted to a few species. Few data were available on temporal trends in freshwater sponge abundance. Despite over 8500 described sponge species, only 20 are on threatened species lists, and all are marine species from the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. Of the 202 studies identified, the effects of temperature, suspended sediment, substratum loss, and microbial pathogens have been studied the most intensively for marine sponges, although responses appear to be variable. There were 20 studies examining environmental impacts on freshwater sponges, and most of these were on temperature and heavy metal contamination. We found that most sponges do not appear to be threatened globally. However, little information is available for most species and more data are needed on the impacts of anthropogenic‐related pressures. This is a critical information gap in understanding sponge conservation status. Estado Global de la Conservación de Esponjas     

Movements of albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) in the South Pacific: Evidence from parasites

Parasites were collected from over 400 albacore (Thunnus alalunga) caught by surface trolling and longlining in the south-west Pacific between 1985 and 1988. Parasites found included 1 apicomplexan, 3 nematode species, 4 cestode species, 1 acanthocephalan, 12 digenean species and 3 copepod species. Twelve of these parasite species which could be accurately recognised and counted were used in the subsequent analyses. Parasite data from albacore caught around New Zealand show a decrease in prevalence of three didymozoid parasites with increasing fish length up to a fork length of 70 to 79 cm. The subsequent increase in prevalence of these didymozoids in large longline-caught fish is consistent with fish returning from spawning in tropical waters where re-infection is presumed to occur. Albacore collected at widely separate locations in the south-west Pacific have differences in parasite prevalence, supporting an hypothesis that juvenile albacore move south to New Zealand from the tropics and do not return until the onset of sexual maturity. Albacore appear to move along the subtropical convergence zone, as indicated by a decline in prevalence and abundance ofAnisakis simplex andHepatoxylon trichiuri from New Zealand to the central South Pacific. This is supported by tagging and seasonal movements of the fishery.     

Environmental issue of exotic catfish culture in Uttar Pradesh

A survey was conducted in Uttar Pradesh to enlist the available exotic fish species in culture. The culture and feeding details of unofficially introduced Clarias gariepinus was collected from 419 ponds existing in rural areas of 23 districts of Uttar Pradesh. The data indicated that 32% ponds were culturing exotic fishes of which 79% cases are of monoculture of exotic African catfish. Feeding analysis of these exotic African catfish revealed that 7% cases subsist on natural pond feed while 29% cases are fed on slaughter house waste. In 32% cases of the exotic magur monoculture, chicken waste was given whereas 11% cases were recorded with fish waste feeding. The possible threats and environmental risks of such unauthorised and indiscreminate culture of exotic magur has been discussed in this paper.     

The imperiled fish fauna in the Nicaragua Canal zone

Large‐scale infrastructure projects commonly have large effects on the environment. The planned construction of the Nicaragua Canal will irreversibly alter the aquatic environment of Nicaragua in many ways. Two distinct drainage basins (San Juan and Punta Gorda) will be connected and numerous ecosystems will be altered. Considering the project's far‐reaching environmental effects, too few studies on biodiversity have been performed to date. This limits provision of robust environmental impact assessments. We explored the geographic distribution of taxonomic and genetic diversity of freshwater fish species (Poecilia spp., Amatitlania siquia, Hypsophrys nematopus, Brycon guatemalensis, and Roeboides bouchellei) across the Nicaragua Canal zone. We collected population samples in affected areas (San Juan, Punta Gorda, and Escondido drainage basins), investigated species composition of 2 drainage basins and performed genetic analyses (genetic diversity, analysis of molecular variance) based on mitochondrial cytb. Freshwater fish faunas differed substantially between drainage basins (Jaccard similarity = 0.33). Most populations from distinct drainage basins were genetically differentiated. Removing the geographic barrier between these basins will promote biotic homogenization and the loss of unique genetic diversity. We found species in areas where they were not known to exist, including an undescribed, highly distinct clade of live bearing fish (Poecilia). Our results indicate that the Nicaragua Canal likely will have strong impacts on Nicaragua's freshwater biodiversity. However, knowledge about the extent of these impacts is lacking, which highlights the need for more thorough investigations before the environment is altered irreversibly.     

三种典型渔药对大型溞(Daphnia magna)的急性毒性及其关键环境影响因子分析

测试了三种典型渔药三氯异氰尿酸(Trichloroisocyanuricacid,TCCA)、叔丁基对羟基茴香醚(Butylatedhydroxyanisole,BHA)、盐酸环丙沙星(Ciprofloxacinhydrochloride,CPFX)对大型(Daphniamagna)的急性毒性。结果表明,对于大型的毒性由大到小的顺序为:三氯异氰尿酸,叔丁基对羟基茴香醚,盐酸环丙沙星,48hLC50分别为0.19mg·L-1,3.15mg·L-1和135.15mg·L-1。通过三因素三水平正交试验分析了主要环境因子pH值、硬度、腐殖酸对三种渔药对大型毒性的影响,发现pH显著影响TCCA的毒性,硬度显著影响CPFX的毒性,而BHA毒性受环境因素影响不显著。     

Fecundity as a Basis for Risk Assessment of Nonindigenous Freshwater Molluscs

Abstract:  The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.     

The effect of Chlorpyrifos, an organophosphate in acetyl cholinesterase activity in freshwater fishes

The freshwater fish Catla catla, Labeo rohita and Cirrhinus mrigala are exposed to the toxicant chlorpyrifos, an organo phosphate commonly used in agriculture as well as in aquaculture. The effect was studied on the enzyme acetyl cholinesterase activity which was inhibited in the selected tissues of the fish. In different tissues and in brain, the maximum inhibition was observed.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

Public perception of river fish biodiversity in four European countries

Public support for biodiversity conservation is shaped by people's values and their knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes toward the environment. We conducted the first multinational representative survey of the general public's perceptions of river fish biodiversity in France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. For the online survey, 1000 respondents per country were randomly selected from large panels following country-specific quotas set on age, gender, and educational level. Questions covered people's level of knowledge, beliefs, values, and attitudes toward river fish, environmental threats, and conservation measures. We found that the public had limited knowledge of freshwater fishes. Two non-native species, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), were widely perceived as native, whereas native Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) was mostly classified as native in Scandinavia and largely as non-native in central Europe. These results suggest an extinction of experience paralleling the extirpation or decline of salmon stocks in countries such as Germany and France. Respondents thought pollution was the dominant threat to riverine fish biodiversity. In reality, habitat loss, dams, and the spread of non-native fishes are equally important. Despite limited biological knowledge, respondents from all countries held an overwhelmingly proecological worldview, supported conservation stocking, and appreciated native fishes, although only a minority interacted with them directly. Differences among the 4 countries related to several conservation issues. For example, threats to biodiversity stemming from aquaculture were perceived as more prevalent in Norway compared with the other 3 countries. Promoting fish conservation based on charismatic species and use values of fishes may work well in countries with a strong economic and cultural link to the freshwater environment, such as Norway. In countries where people rather abstractly care for nature, focusing conservation messaging on broader ecosystem traits and non-use values of fishes is likely to win more support.     

Concentration of arsenic in water, sediments and fish species from naturally contaminated rivers

Arsenic (As) may occur in surface freshwater ecosystems as a consequence of both natural contamination and anthropogenic activities. In this paper, As concentrations in muscle samples of 10 fish species, sediments and surface water from three naturally contaminated rivers in a central region of Argentina are reported. The study area is one of the largest regions in the world with high As concentrations in groundwater. However, information of As in freshwater ecosystems and associated biota is scarce. An extensive spatial variability of As concentrations in water and sediments of sampled ecosystems was observed. Geochemical indices indicated that sediments ranged from mostly unpolluted to strongly polluted. The concentration of As in sediments averaged 6.58 μg/g ranging from 0.23 to 59.53 μg/g. Arsenic in sediments barely followed (r = 0.361; p = 0.118) the level of contamination of water. All rivers showed high concentrations of As in surface waters, ranging from 55 to 195 μg/L. The average concentration of As in fish was 1.76 μg/g. The level of contamination with As differed significantly between species. Moreover, the level of bioaccumulation of As in fish species related to the concentration of As in water and sediments also differed between species. Whilst some fish species seemed to be able to regulate the uptake of this metalloid, the concentration of As in the large catfish Rhamdia quelen mostly followed the concentration of As in abiotic compartments. The erratic pattern of As concentrations in fish and sediments regardless of the invariable high levels in surface waters suggests the existence of complex biogeochemical processes behind the distribution patterns of As in these naturally contaminated ecosystems.     

An integrated modeling framework for performing environmental assessments: Application to ecosystem services in the Albemarle-Pamlico basins (NC and VA, USA)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing complexity and interdisciplinary nature of modern environmental problems has necessitated a new generation of integrated modeling technologies. Environmental modelers are now faced with the challenge of determining how data from manifold sources, types of process-based and empirical models, and hardware/software computing infrastructure can be reliably integrated and applied to protect human health and the environment.In this study, we demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that allows us to predict the state of freshwater ecosystem services within and across the Albemarle-Pamlico Watershed, North Carolina and Virginia (USA). The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is a hardware and software parallel-computing interface with pre/post-processing analysis tools, including parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In this application, five environmental models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities: the Soil Water Assessment Tool predicts watershed runoff; the Watershed Mercury Model simulates mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index model predicts physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator predicts fish growth and production, as well as exposure and bioaccumulation of toxic substances (e.g., mercury).Using this Framework, we present a baseline assessment of two freshwater ecosystem services-water quality and fisheries resources-in headwater streams throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico. A stratified random sample of 50 headwater streams is used to draw inferences about the target population of headwater streams across the region. Input data is developed for a twenty-year baseline simulation in each sampled stream using current land use and climate conditions. Monte Carlo sampling (n = 100 iterations per stream) is also used to demonstrate some of the Framework's experimental design and data analysis features. To evaluate model performance and accuracy, we compare initial (i.e., uncalibrated) model predictions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, fish density, and methylmercury concentration within fish tissue) against empirical field data. Finally, we ‘roll-up’ the results from individual streams, to assess freshwater ecosystem services at the regional scale.     

Statistical modeling of seasonal and environmental influences on the population dynamics of an estuarine fish community

A statistical modeling study was performed on the population fluctuations of the 15 commonest fish species frequenting the tidal Scheldt estuary in Belgium. These included marine juvenile and seasonal visitors, estuarine residents and diadromous fish species that were recorded on the filter screens of a power plant cooling-water intake between September 1991 and April 2001. The species population abundance was regressed against a candidate set of 6 environmental variables and 13 instrumental variables, accounting for seasonality and long-term trends present in the data. Population abundances of the different species were, in general, best described by seasonal variables. Seasonal components contributed, on average, up to 63.8% of the variance explained by the models. Ten species were found to show a slightly negative, though significant, trend over the period of the survey. Most models also included at least one environmental variable, and 25.4% of the explained variance could be attributed to environmental fluctuations. Of all physico-chemical variables, dissolved oxygen was the most important predictor of fish abundance, suggesting that the estuary suffered from poor water quality during the survey. Temperature, salinity, freshwater flow, suspended solids and chlorophyll a concentrations were minor determinants of fish abundance.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Sulfur isotopes link overwinter habitat use and breeding condition in Double-crested Cormorants.

North American Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) populations have increased greatly. Both breeding and overwintering ground factors have likely contributed to these increases. However, demonstrating how overwintering conditions may affect breeding birds has not been possible because of the difficulty in linking breeding birds to their wintering grounds. Here, we demonstrate the utility of stable sulfur isotopes to elucidate overwintering habitat use by cormorants breeding on Lake Erie. Sulfur isotopes in feathers grown on overwintering grounds provided insights into the degree to which birds used freshwater vs. marine environments. The proportion of birds utilizing freshwater habitats increased through time. This change may have reflected increases in freshwater aquaculture (i.e., catfish) in the U.S. south. Examination of body condition in birds returning to breed on Lake Erie indicated that those individuals that solely used marine habitats for at least a portion of the overwintering period were in poorer condition than birds using freshwater. Enhanced foraging opportunities at aquaculture facilities may improve the fitness of individuals that have returned to breed after overwintering at such locations. This study is the first to demonstrate a linkage between overwinter habitat use and breeding ground parameters in Double-crested Cormorants. These results underscore that factors throughout the Mississippi flyway are likely acting together to regulate cormorant populations.     

Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges.

Evaluations of the potential distribution of invasive species can increase the efficiency of their management by focusing prevention measures. Generally, ecological models are built using occurrence data from a species' native range to predict the distribution in areas that the species may invade. However, historical and geographical constraints can limit a species' native distribution. Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), an ecological niche modeling program, was used to predict the potential distribution of the invasive, freshwater New Zealand mudsnail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum, in Australia and North America. We compared the strength of the predictions made by models built with data from the snail's native range in New Zealand to models built with data from the locations invaded by the species. A time-series analysis of the Australian models demonstrated that range-of-invasion data can make better predictions about the potential distribution of invasive species than models built with native range data. Large differences among the model forecasts indicate that uncritical choice of the data set used in training the GARP models can result in misleading predictions. The models predict a large expansion in the range of P. antipodarum in both Australia and North America unless prevention measures are implemented rapidly.