Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales1

Arnell, Nigel W., 2011. Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):541‐549. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00548.x Abstract: Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private‐sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.     

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how – or if at all – adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.     

An examination of the efficacy of the precautionary principle as a robust environmental planning and management protocol

The precautionary principle is regularly cited in cases that involve development in eco-sensitive locations. We investigated whether the precautionary principle provides the basis for a coherent framework to prevent environmental harm, and does it work in practice? We suggest that, in principle, the precautionary principle makes good sense. In practice, however, it is imprecise in policy and law and fails to fulfil its promise because it is loosely defined and thus lacks substance and clarity. Consequently, it operates in a framework that is ambiguous, leaving it open to manipulation by discretionary powers. To counter such deficiencies, human-induced environmental harm should be formally observed as ‘criminogenic’ and environmental protection prioritised against which other competing priorities (e.g., ‘year on year’ economic growth) are measured. This would overcome the politico-legal obfuscation and contestations of climate change policy that currently impedes the precautionary principle's practical application.     

Government response to climate change in China: a study of provincial and municipal plans

In this paper, we provide an overview of local and regional climate change plans in China by scrutinizing planning documents from 16 cities, four autonomous regions, and 22 provinces. We develop and apply an evaluation protocol to understand goals, process, and strategies in these plans. We also conduct interviews with government officials to provide a context for subnational climate change planning. The results indicate that current climate change planning in China is characterized by the ‘top-down’ approach, in which the central governmental incentives play a vital role in shaping provincial and municipal plans. In addition, most plans have the following issues: vague definition of what characterizes a low-carbon city/region; deficiency in the quality of greenhouse gas inventory and reduction targets; insufficient strategies provided to respond to climate change; inadequate stakeholder engagement; and weak horizontal coordination. Finally, we offer recommendations to improve climate change planning in China.     

Heat as emergency,heat as chronic stress: policy and institutional responses to vulnerability to extreme heat

Increasingly commonplace in cities, extreme heat events introduce multi-stress vulnerability, affecting people’s health and well-being, financial situation, mobility, social relations, and access to basic services. Planning to reduce heat vulnerability has become part of government business and to some extent community-level responses, cutting across a number of sectors including public health, emergency management, social services, critical infrastructure, and housing. This planning is often framed around heat as an emergency, focusing on preventing loss of life and severe health impacts, yet a vulnerability perspective also draws attention to the chronic and persistent impacts of heat. Our research, based on interviews and desktop research in Melbourne, Australia, found tensions between addressing heat as an emergency and heat as a source of chronic stress, with emergency responses taking precedence over responses addressing the chronic dimensions of heat. Each approach results in different but nonetheless related programmatic priorities for reducing vulnerability. In complex institutional settings, improving relations between policy and programme managers, non-government organisations, and vulnerable people themselves would enable the multiple stresses associated with extreme heat to be more effectively addressed. Policy and institutional responses that better appreciate the interconnections between the emergency and chronic aspects of heat would likely reduce vulnerability and contribute to more just approaches to urban sustainability.     

Place-based local governance and sustainable communities: lessons from Canadian biosphere reserves

The quest for sustainable communities might be fostered by a new ‘place-based’ governing approach that engages civil society and other actors in local decision-making processes. In Canada, lessons can be learned from the establishment and maintenance of biosphere reserves by networks of local communities of interests and other organisations. Biosphere reserves are created to promote conservation, biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods. Municipal and public participation in these reserves can be encouraged, promoting a local sense of place as well as sustainable community and regional development. An examination of two Canadian biosphere reserves, Riding Mountain and Long Point, illustrates how local governments and these reserves might assist each other in their mutual goals of long-term sustainability while offering a worthwhile model of local collaborative, place-based governance.     

Irrigation Reliability Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Modeling Investigation in a River‐Based Irrigation Scheme in New Zealand1

Srinivasan, M.S., J. Schmidt, S. Poyck, and E. Hreinsson, 2011. Irrigation Reliability Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Modeling Investigation in a River‐Based Irrigation Scheme in New Zealand. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1261–1274. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00568.x Abstract: The impact of climate change (CC) on irrigation reliability in a river‐based irrigation scheme in New Zealand was investigated. Reliability was defined as the river’s ability to meet the demand. Two future periods were considered, 2030‐49 (“2040”) and 2080‐99 (“2090”), and reliability at these periods were compared against those in 1980‐99 (“current”). A hydrology model, calibrated and validated for current condition, was applied to simulate flows for CC scenarios. Annual precipitation and mean temperatures were predicted to increase under CC scenarios over current condition. Occurrence of high intensity rainfall events indicated large flows under CC scenarios, though these increases could be occurring outside the irrigation season (September‐April). Compared to current condition, under CC scenarios, the number of days per season supply falling below demand could increase by 5 (2040) to 17% (2090). Snow storage plays a major role in sustaining flows in early spring under current condition. However, with increasing temperatures under CC scenarios, the average annual snow water storage could decrease from 155 mm (current) to 97‐134 mm (2040) and 40‐90 mm (2090). Under CC scenarios, to sustain the current levels of land and water uses in this scheme, storage options need to be explored.     

Climate change and indigenous natural resource management: a review of socio-ecological interactions in the Alinytjara Wilurara NRM region

This article examines key socio-ecological interactions identified during a climate change vulnerability assessment in the Alinytjara Wilurara natural resources management (NRM) region of South Australia. The complex local socio-ecological interactions are highlighted to guide a response to the challenge of adapting to climate change within the region. Recognising several key desert drivers which perpetuate degraded socio-ecological systems, this article recommends that a range of strategies be employed simultaneously to enhance local environmental management in association with remote indigenous communities, including: linking people and NRM more closely; tracking funding but ensuring systems can withstand periods of limited financial support; developing cross-sectoral and cross-institutional links; empowering and engaging communities; communicating effectively; and actively supporting local and traditional environmental knowledge. Unless climate change adaptation responses within the region are conceptualised and enacted within the context of complex local socio-ecological systems, NRM will not improve and social vulnerability will increase.     

Stream Temperature Surges Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Data,Models, and Responses1

ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species.     

Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.     

Value reclamation from informal municipal solid waste management: green neoliberalism and inclusive development in Lagos,Nigeria

ABSTRACT

Lagos is undoubtedly the cultural capital and economic hub of the West African sub-region. The challenge of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in the megacity has remained intractable due partly to the increasing rate of population growth. While solid waste policy reforms, investments, and management practices in Lagos are in the upswing in the formal economy, the role of the informal economy in engendering sub-regional material linkages and livelihoods remain unexplored. Adopting a multi-stakeholder approach and data from interviews, this study critically examines how value reclamation from informal MSWM advances green neoliberalism and inclusive development. It shows that while informal transboundary trade of recyclable materials in the West African sub-region have previously been left out of analyses of MSWM in Lagos, the informal economy of waste and new investments in MSWM have neoliberal underpinnings beyond the megacity scale. The paper concludes that integrating the informal economy in framing MSWM policy in the megacity offers scope for evolving an inclusive development strategy while also enabling sustainable MSWM in the post-2015 era.     

Field Evaluation of DRAINMOD 5.1 Under a Cold Climate: Simulation of Daily Midspan Water Table Depths and Drain Outflows1

Abstract: The hydrologic performance of DRAINMOD 5.1 was assessed for the southern Quebec region considering freezing/thawing conditions. A tile drained agricultural field in the Pike River watershed was instrumented to measure tile drainage volumes. The model was calibrated using water table depth and subsurface flow data over a two‐year period, while another two‐year dataset served to validate the model. DRAINMOD 5.1 accurately simulated the timing and magnitude of subsurface drainage events. The model also simulated the pattern of water table fluctuations with a good degree of accuracy. The R² between the observed and simulated daily WTD for calibration was >0.78, and that for validation was 0.93. The corresponding coefficients of efficiency (E) were >0.74 and 0.31. The R² and E values for calibration/validation of subsurface flow were 0.73/0.48 and 0.72/0.40, respectively. DRAINMOD simulated monthly subsurface flow quite accurately (E > 0.82 and R² > 0.84). The model precisely simulated daily/monthly drain flow over the entire year, including the winter months. Thus DRAINMOD 5.1 performed well in simulating the hydrology of a cold region.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.     

Adaptation Bridges and Barriers in Water Planning and Management: Insight from Recent Extreme Droughts in Arizona and Georgia1

Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity.     

Local air pollution and global climate change taxes: a distributional analysis for the case of Spain

Global climate change measures are difficult to implement. In this context, local air pollution measures may play an important role in the political agenda since their effects are felt more immediately by citizens. Distributional implications are one of the main barriers for implementing environmental policies. This paper explores the distributional implications of air pollution taxes and compares them to climate change taxes. For the comparison, both tax schemes were set to yield the same revenue. Methodologically, the study uses a top–down approach linking a macro model to a micro model. We find that taxes on local air pollutants are more regressive than those levied on CO₂. This is because the goods implicitly taxed have a greater weight in the consumer basket of low-income groups, even if the tax revenues are recycled. Furthermore, the revenue-neutral recycle scheme increases both taxes efficiency, but, at the same time, can increase regressivity.     

Enhancing climate technology transfer through greater public–private cooperation: Lessons from Thailand and the Philippines

This article contributes to debates about climate change policy and technology transfer by analyzing the success factors underlying collaboration between private companies and communities in developing countries. To date, much attention to capacity building for enabling environments — including public–private collaboration — under the climate change convention has focused on state‐led initiatives and on the innovation and development of technologies. This article, instead, focuses on how private‐sector investors and host communities may collaborate in the diffusion of technologies, by reducing the costs of technology transfer, and making technology more appropriate to developing countries. The article describes cases of collaboration concerning waste management and waste‐to‐energy in Thailand and the Philippines. The article argues that successful public–private partnerships between investors and communities depends on minimizing transaction costs, strengthening collaborative (or assurance) mechanisms, and in maximizing public trust and accountability of partnerships. Lessons are then drawn for enhancing capacity building for technology transfer under the climate change convention and applications such as the Clean Development Mechanism.     

The economic dimensions of integrating flood management and agri-environment through washland creation: a case from Somerset, England

In many river floodplains in the UK, there has been a long history of flood defence, land reclamation and water regime management for farming. In recent years, however, changing European and national policies with respect to farming, environment and flood management are encouraging a re-appraisal of land use in rural areas. In particular, there is scope to develop, through the use of appropriate promotional mechanisms, washland areas, which will simultaneously accommodate winter inundation, support extensive farming methods, deliver environmental benefits, and do this in a way which can underpin the rural economy. This paper explores the likely economic impacts of the development of flood storage and washland creation. In doing so, consideration is given to feasibility of this type of development, the environmental implications for a variety of habitats and species, and the financial and institutional mechanisms required to achieve implementation.     

Scenario Modeling Potential Eco-Efficiency Gains from a Transition to Organic Agriculture: Life Cycle Perspectives on Canadian Canola,Corn, Soy,and Wheat Production

We used Life Cycle Assessment to scenario model the potential reductions in cumulative energy demand (both fossil and renewable) and global warming, acidifying, and ozone-depleting emissions associated with a hypothetical national transition from conventional to organic production of four major field crops [canola (Brassica rapa), corn (Zea mays), soy (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum aestivum)] in Canada. Models of these systems were constructed using a combination of census data, published values, and the requirements for organic production described in the Canadian National Organic Standards in order to be broadly representative of the similarities and differences that characterize these disparate production technologies. Our results indicate that organic crop production would consume, on average, 39% as much energy and generate 77% of the global warming emissions, 17% of the ozone-depleting emissions, and 96% of the acidifying emissions associated with current national production of these crops. These differences were almost exclusively due to the differences in fertilizers used in conventional and organic farming and were most strongly influenced by the higher cumulative energy demand and emissions associated with producing conventional nitrogen fertilizers compared to the green manure production used for biological nitrogen fixation in organic agriculture. Overall, we estimate that a total transition to organic production of these crops in Canada would reduce national energy consumption by 0.8%, global warming emissions by 0.6%, and acidifying emissions by 1.0% but have a negligible influence on reducing ozone-depleting emissions.