The world budget constraint

The fact the resources of the earth are limited implies a budget constraint for the world economy, under the assumption of preserving the natural capital. Using recent data on the ecological footprint, the world product, and population, it is estimated that we are currently located in a non-feasible area. It is also estimated that if the present level of per capita product is to be sustained, the size of the world population must be reduced to 2.5 billion people. Given our natural resource endowment and the relationship between material income and happiness, suggested in recent research, there appears to be an obvious need for reconsidering our lifestyles, our consumption patterns, and our policies for population reduction.     

市场信任对农户生物农药施用行为的影响 ——基于制度环境的调节效应分析

生产者市场信任缺失将导致绿色农产品供给严重不足，并由供给缺位引致食品供给侧结构性失衡。基于湖北省804份水稻种植户的微观调研数据，探讨了市场信任、制度环境对农户生物农药施用行为的影响。研究发现：（1）农户不仅对市场上售卖的农产品缺乏消费信任，而且缺乏绿色农产品生产信任，67.79%的样本农户对绿色农产品的市场销售表露担忧；（2）市场信任对农户施用生物农药行为具有显著的促进作用，与激励制度相比，市场约束制度对农户施用生物农药的影响更显著，且市场激励与约束制度能有效弥补农户市场信任不足；（3）政府和企业对农户生物农药施用行为的影响存在差异，企业和政府监管都能显著促进农户的生物农药施用，但企业对农户生产行为的约束效果要优于政府。因此，要提升农户的绿色农产品市场信任，加强激励与约束制度环境的建设，倡导多元共治以弥补政府职能的有限性。     

配额免费分配法下市场结构对碳交易市场运行效率的影响

在产品市场和碳交易市场均为完全竞争的市场结构中,碳交易机制是一种有效的环境政策,但在现实环境下,产品市场和碳交易市场往往都是不完全竞争的。本文采用复杂适应系统仿真的方法,构建基于SWARM的碳交易市场仿真模型,建立碳排放权交易市场仿真系统,研究产品市场和碳交易市场结构对碳交易市场的运行效率的综合影响,同时为了降低产品市场垄断企业对碳交易市场运行效率的影响,本文通过增加碳交易市场配额缺口和增加参与交易的中小控排企业数量两种方式,探寻如何在产品市场不完全竞争的环境中设计合适碳交易机制。研究发现:1产品市场垄断会导致碳交易市场流动性不稳定,出现波动聚集等现象。2在产品市场处于相同结构时,碳交易市场垄断会导致成交量和成交额减少,流动性降低。3不同市场结构对碳交易市场的价格波动没有显著影响。4产品市场的市场结构会影响碳交易市场运行的有效性,完全竞争的产品市场下,碳交易市场的收益波动符合随机游走,而垄断力会改变这一特征。5市场流动性随着碳配额缺口的扩大发生显著变化,成交量和成交额随之显著增加,在产品市场垄断的市场结构中,通过加紧配额供给,可以增加碳交易市场的流动性,改变碳交易市场低迷的交易状况。6鼓励小企业参与市场交易对碳交易市场的流动性没有产生显著影响,但会在一定程度上降低垄断企业在碳交易市场上的支配力,从而改善碳交易市场的有效性。     

基于地块尺度的耕地非农化驱动力空间异质性研究——以武汉市为例

土地用途管制和基本农田保护制度下,耕地非农化概率值和其驱动力的空间作用强度分布在土地资源配置和耕地保护方面有积极的指示性。基于武汉市2000~2011年耕地非农化地块的微观数据,通过比较分析Logistic回归模型和地理加权Logistic回归模型参数估计结果,验证了耕地非农化驱动力的空间异质性,并对异质性的空间分布规律和政策涵义做出总结分析。研究表明:1耕地间的空间依赖效应和建设用地对耕地的空间溢出效应在耕地非农化过程中具有显著影响力,且耕地非农化驱动力存在显著的空间异质性;2地理加权Logistic回归模型由于考虑到数据的空间非平稳状态所以比Logistic回归模型有更好的拟合效果;3耕地非农化驱动力的异质性在空间上呈现出一定规律,这些受到产业布局、经济和城市发展特点等的影响,根据不同驱动力空间异质性产生的原因进行差异化土地管理可以解决耕地保护和建设用地供给间的矛盾。研究结果能从地块尺度上反映出耕地非农化驱动因素的空间异质性,实现了驱动因素作用强度空间分布的可视化,并能为国土资源差异化管理提供理论和实践参考。     

湖南省农村城市化问题成因及对策研究

农村城镇化是经济现代化进程的大势所趋．是湖南建设全面小康社会的必然选择。农村城镇化不仅有利于湖南解决好“三农”问题,而且有利于促进湖南农村经济的快速、健康发展.目前湖南农村城镇化存在水平偏低、分布不平衡、数量增长超过规模的扩张和质量的提升等问题。主要原因在于长期的政策制约、规划滞后性、建设随意性、建设资金不足、建设管理不到位以及基础设施建设落后等,本文根据产业集聚理论．客观地分析制约农村城镇化水平的原因．从而有针对性地提出了提高湖南农村城镇化的基本对策。     

《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献下的新市场机制探析

环境产权化理论与生态现代化理论演绎出的碳市场被奉为解决碳排放"负外部性"的有效手段。《京都议定书》开创了"自上而下"模式的国际碳市场,但因未充分尊重缔约方自主和平等参与而成为一个封闭的"碳交易俱乐部"。京都机制的实践不足与碳市场的理论争议引发《巴黎协定》碳市场存废之争。《巴黎协定》的"国家自主贡献"标志着全球气候治理由"强制约束"向"自觉责任"的转向。基于新履约模式,缔约方形成四种新市场机制方案:基线与信用及碳交易机制、基线与信用"自上而下"或"自下而上"机制以及国际碳交易机制。为保障有效减缓并兼顾自主与平等参与,《巴黎协定》建立了"自上而下"基线与信用机制,但采取了与京都机制"项目"基线不同的"部门"基线。新市场机制对信用交易不再特殊限定,尊重缔约方参与和适用的自愿性;且以"部门"的总量约束为准入门槛对所有缔约方统一要求,体现出平等参与的特点;减排单位中植入可持续发展标准从而对新机制实施的总体效益予以"硬约束"。新机制将促进部门内的减排单位统一,为国际碳市场奠定规则基础。但其市场淡化与可持续发展植入亦将影响国家及区域碳市场异质化发展,不利于国际碳市场构建,其背弃配额交易,独采信用交易亦会抑制碳货币形成。中国建立国家碳市场旨在促进能源市场化改革和产业结构调整,将有利于中国履行"碳强度"和"非化石能源比重"的自主承诺,还将扭转经济增长对高碳排放的依赖,为未来中国履行强制减排责任奠定基础。     

Factor input structure,environmental policies,and the export quality upgrade: a perspective of heterogeneity

In the analysis of how environmental regulation affects the comparative advantage of trade, existing literature ignores industry’s inherent heterogeneity, which draws remarkably different conclusions. In view of this, the paper analyzed the mechanism of environmental regulation on the export quality of different industries from the perspective of factor input structure heterogeneity. Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry, the paper used the system generalized method of moments method to examine the heterogeneity influence of environmental regulation on manufacturing export quality. The study found that, first, environmental regulation affected the export quality upgrade of the manufacturing sector through offset effect and compensation effect, and the direction of the impact would mainly depend on the industry’s factor input structure. Second, for industries with larger fixed-asset investment (FAI) ratio in the factor input structure, the current environmental regulation policy was not conducive to the export quality upgrading of the industries. However, there was a significant U-shaped dynamic relationship between them. As environmental regulations became stricter, when regulatory stringency went beyond the inflection point, the policy would promote the upgrading of export quality. But for industries with smaller proportion of FAI, environmental regulation exerted a favorable impact on the export quality upgrade, following a J-shaped marginal growth curve. Third, for industries with different factor input structure, their export quality had been effectively upgraded as expected by factors like human capital investment, independent R&D, technology introduction, and foreign direct investment; but raising per capita capital stock and expanding enterprise size did not produce significant direct impact on export quality upgrade. These conclusions remained robust after using different measurement methods and replacing with other variables. Therefore, this paper suggests that governments should take industry heterogeneity into consideration and formulate differentiated hierarchical environmental policies. Besides, they should strengthen the enforcement of the current environmental regulation policies. By doing so, enterprises are forced to improve their technology and product quality so that they can better cope with rising compliance costs, eliminate backward industries, and resolve excess capacity. In this way, the economic structure would be transformed and upgraded from the supply side.     

基于不同卫星降雨产品的澴水花园流域径流模拟比较研究

卫星降雨产品作为缺资料或无资料地区估算流域降雨径流的一种途径,适用性尚需大量实验研究。以澴水花园流域为研究区,综合评估了TRMM(3B42V7)、TRMM_RT(3B42V7)、PERSIANN CDR和CMORPH 4个卫星降雨产品在流域平均雨量计算与径流模拟中的精度,设置多方案与多种水文模拟情景全面检验各降雨产品的可靠性与适用性。研究表明：(1)在研究期2002~2013年,没有一个卫星降雨产品对所有精度评价指标均表现最优,PERSIANN始终表现为最差;(2)各卫星降雨产品对于不同年代和不同统计时段的精度差异明显,且一般汛期精度高于全年精度。各年代精度最高的卫星降雨产品在年与汛期尺度上与实测雨量相关系数均超过0.9;(3)各卫星降雨产品对有雨日降雨探测能力较强,但空报率较高,所有卫星降雨产品对于年最大1 d、3 d和7 d降雨估算误差较大,无法达到可利用精度;(4)采用卫星降雨产品进行径流模拟时,以相应的卫星降雨进行水文模型参数率定可获得更高的模拟精度。TRMM_RT与CMORPH日径流模拟精度较好,CMORPH月径流模拟精度较好。总体而言,CMORPH更适用于径流模拟。对于典型的3场大洪水模拟结果表明,TRMM_RT和CMORPH对洪峰与洪量（径流深）的模拟精度相对较高。     

区域龙头企业对地方政府环境规制影响研究

当政府基于公共利益对企业实施规制,政府所代表的公共利益与龙头企业的经济利益冲突时,政府的规制行为与规制效率是否会受龙头企业影响?已有的研究较少涉及这一公共管理的重要问题。本研究从环境规制视角出发,基于1999—2013年的中国31个省级层面的面板数据,结合工业企业数据库微观数据,在省级层面实证检验了当存在利益冲突和规制能力约束时,区域环境规制水平是否会受到龙头企业以规模衡量的能力影响;如是,其方向和机制又是什么。本文研究发现:(1)龙头企业规模越大,区域环境规制水平越严格;(2)龙头企业规模对区域环境规制的影响主要通过两种路径实现,一是龙头企业所在行业的区域经济地位,行业的区域经济地位越重要,越容易引来政府的环境规制关注;二是龙头企业在所在行业的经济地位,某企业在行业的比重越高,越容易引来政府的环境规制关注;(3)龙头企业规模与区域环境规制水平间关系是政府有限环境规制能力有效运用的结果,当政府规制能力不足时,政府在规制中会"抓大放小",重点加强对龙头企业的环境规制;随着政府规制能力上升,企业规模与区域环境规制水平的正相关关系不仅回归系数会逐步下降,而且会在统计上不再显著;最终,当政府掌握充分的环境规制能力后,企业的规模可能会在降低区域环境规制水平上发挥一定作用。本文的研究结果证实当政府与企业存在利益博弈时,政府的利益首先得到满足,仅当政府的利益得到满足后,企业才可能利用其实力影响政府规制以获取规制利益最大化。本文的研究一方面消除了"政商勾结"污染环境的忧虑,另一方面也提示要严格限制政府这只"看得见的手"的利益诉求范围。     

Evaluation on the development degree of China’s seven pilot carbon markets

China is preparing to establish a nationwide carbon market in 2017, and in order to facilitate this goal, seven pilot carbon markets have been under study for the past few years. This paper summarizes the operation experience and challenges of the seven pilot carbon markets in China. It has been widely accepted that the essence of a carbon market is to solve environmental problems through market mechanisms, with environmental benefit being the fundamental purpose, market mechanism being the key measure, and policies and regulations being an important guarantee for an orderly carbon market. Therefore, this paper constructs an evaluation index system composed of 34 detailed sub-indexes in three dimensions, such as environmental constraint force, market resource allocation ability, and supporting policies and facility completeness. Through analyzing the operation data from 2013 to 2016, the weights of the sub-indexes are obtained. In addition, the study obtains experts’ opinions from over 10 carbon permits exchanges, consultancy firms and research institutions in China, and conducts a comprehensive evaluation on the development degree of the seven pilot carbon markets. Results show that the pilot carbon markets that include private SMEs as the covered entities for emissions control present relatively higher environmental constraint force. But too many covered entities could increase the difficulty of market performance management, while the pilots that include high energy-consuming state-owned enterprises as the entities for emissions control demonstrate a phenomenon of “high market compliance rate with low trading volume”. The resource allocation capability of China’s carbon market has not been effectively brought into play, and low degree of market participation has become an important constraint factor for market development. Due to the lack of laws and regulations at the national macro-level, the legally binding force of the pilot markets construction is obviously insufficient, and the supporting policies are lacking foresights. Generally, the development of China’s pilot carbon markets is still in such a fragmented state as in the aspects of environment, market and policy development, and the market operation has not yet achieved the purpose of solving environmental problems through market mechanisms. Accordingly, policy recommendations pointed out by this study are that tightening the allowance of free quota and progressively increasing the auction proportion, improving legal construction, increasing the services and products of carbon finance and standardizing the order of market transactions, enhancing capacity building of local governments and promoting the participation willingness and capability of emissions control entities, will be necessary.     

甘南州生态补偿区域空间选择方案的比较

在预算约束和无预算约束条件下，分别模拟了6种不同的生态补偿区域选择方案，并采用比较研究方法，从补偿资金效率、补偿对象特征、吸纳的贫困人口、补偿额的分配情况、生态重要性、生态脆弱性和项目成本等7个方面对6种方案进行了对比分析。结果表明：风险效益成本比标准方案的补偿资金效率最高，在生态重要性和生态脆弱性方面占优势，但方案的参与率最低，补偿的乡镇数量和贫困人口最少，在项目成本方面占劣势；效益成本比标准方案的补偿资金效率和参与率较高，补偿乡镇数量较多，贫困人口的参与率最高，在生态重要性和项目成本方面占优势，但在生态脆弱性方面占劣势；效益标准方案的补偿资金效率较高，补偿的乡镇数量较多，参与率最高，补偿的贫困人口最多，在生态重要性和生态脆弱性方面占优势，但补偿面积最少，在项目成本方面占劣势；成本标准方案的补偿面积最大，补偿的乡镇数量最多，参与率较高，补偿的贫困人口也较多，在生态重要性和项目成本方面占优势，但补偿资金效率最低，在生态脆弱性方面占劣势；如果不存在预算约束，只考虑生态脆弱性，风险标准方案最合适，可避免处于退化风险的草地没有得到补偿；统一标准方案可补偿整个区域，亩均补偿额相同，补偿额在补偿区上分配公平，方案实施便利，简单易行，但需要庞大的资金预算，且实施困难较大,补偿资金效率很低     

Carbon Budget Proposal： An Institutional Framework for an Equitable and Sustainable World Climate Regime

Consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been reached at the technical and political level.However,as the issue involves economic costs and the right to develop,the international institutional framework for addressing greenhouse gas emissions has consistently failed to balance the demands of impartiality and sustainability.However,a sustainable carbon budget proposal is undoubtedly achievable if the global carbon budget (the total amount of carbon permitted by climate security) is made an absolute constraint.If a preliminary distribution was made among the world’s population on a per capita basis,the total limited global carbon budget could not only meet basic needs but also ensure the proposal’s equitable.Taking into account historical emission levels and future needs,we should carry out carbon budget transfer payments and devise a corresponding funding mechanism to ensure efficient allocation under the proposal.Unlike the phase-by-phase progress and provisional goals of the Kyoto Protocol,the carbon budget proposal outlined above is a comprehensive and holistic package.Due to the politicization of the climate change issue,however,many technical issues can only be worked out through international political and diplomatic negotiations.     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

“一带一路”战略背景下金属产业国际产能合作研究

随着全球经济发展放缓,金属资源国内需求结构变化,资源约束压力、产能过剩等问题更加突出。如何通过国际产能合作化解金属产业难题是亟待解决的一个现实问题。本文从中国金属产业的现状出发,借鉴美、日产能转移的成功经验,在"一带一路"战略的大背景下探索适合中国金属产业开展产能合作的新模式并提出相应的政策建议。研究认为,中国已成为世界金属生产和消费大国且工业化进入中后期,具有进行国际产能合作的现实需求,"一带一路"战略为中国金属产能国际转移带来了历史契机。这种契机主要表现在沿线国家的基础设施建设热潮带来全球金属资源消费新的增长点,中国主导的"一带一路"战略构建了一种新型地缘政治格局,既能增强中国在沿线国家中的贸易话语权,也为中国开展国际产能合作提供了条件。研究指出,在"一带一路"战略下,中国金属产业的产能转移应以"互利共赢"为基础创新产能合作模式:即以产能合作推动产能转移,达到产业互补经济互惠的目的;以产能输出取代产品输出,有效回避西方国家针对中国的"双反"政策;以基础设施援建消化部分产能,在帮助沿线国家发展基础设施建设的同时消化自身部分富余产能。在合作策略上,应注重六个方面:一是充分利用"一带一路"的战略合作关系;二是实施低端转移高端做强的策略方针;三是全方位开放和深化产能合作;四是开展境外产业园区建设和有色金属精深加工工程;五是大力鼓励民营资本参与;六是创新金属矿业投资模式。     

The impact of government subsidy and tax policy on the competitive decision-making of remanufacturing supply chains

In this paper, we consider a two-period competition model of a remanufacturing supply chain consisting of three members: a new product manufacturer, a recycler and a remanufacturer. The manufacturer supplies new products in the first period and the remanufacturer participates in the competition in the second period. We consider three scenarios in the second period: (1) there is no government subsidy in the competition; (2) there is only government subsidy in the competition; (3) there are both government subsidy and tax in the competition. First, we give the optimal decision-making of the manufacturer, the remanufacturer and the government in the three scenarios; second, we analyse changes in the decision-making of the manufacturer and remanufacturer in the three scenarios and compare their results. We analyse the effects of government subsidy and tax and their asymmetric use on manufacturers’ and remanufacturers’ decision-making variables and competitive performance. We also take consumer awareness of environmental protection into account and examine its impact on subjects’ decisions. Lastly, we operate a numerical example to show the results.     

武汉城市圈水资源及水环境承载力分析

水资源及水环境承载力是衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标,对区域经济的发展规划具有重要的指导意义。以可承载的人口数量和GDP作为承载力的表征指标,分别运用单位GDP综合用水量评判法和河流一维水质模型及湖库均匀混合模型计算武汉城市圈不同水平年的水资源及水环境承载力,并用承载度来评价水资源及水环境的承载状态。结果表明:2012、2020和2030年武汉城市圈水资源承载力都处于合理承载状态,但是其水环境承载力处于轻度超载状态。可见,水环境承载力对武汉城市圈的用水限制更为严格。随着社会经济的发展及污水处理技术的进步,水环境状况虽然会有所好转,但与水资源数量这一因素相比,水环境仍是制约武汉城市圈经济社会发展的关键因素。     

A multi-path routing-inventory problem for a closed-loop supply chain considering the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles

In this paper, the inventory-routing problem is studied for a closed-loop supply chain. This closed-loop supply chain considers suppliers, manufacturers, whole-sellers, and disposal centers. To formulate this problem, a mixed integer linear programming model is proposed. This mathematical model minimizes the total costs of the supply chain, including the fixed and variable costs of vehicles, and holding inventory costs of final products and scraps. The proposed model considers the road roughness degree, multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which increases its flexibility and the quality of solutions. Then, two symmetry-breaking constraints are proposed to reduce the complexity of the mathematical model. In order to evaluate the integrity of the proposed model, 20 instances of different sizes are randomly generated and solved. Finally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to five key features of the problem, such as the impact of the symmetry-breaking constraints on the CPU time, multi-path setting, fixed cost of vehicles, heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, and lost sales. The results indicate that the consideration of multi-path setting and the heterogeneous fleet of vehicles improves the quality of solutions significantly.     

碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响及应对策略

碳关税是美国提出的针对国际贸易中高能耗进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。从表面上看,碳关税的提出是为了缓解全球气候变暖的现实,促进全球贸易的公平竞争。实质上,碳关税的提出是美国国内政治经济博弈的结果,其目的是为了夺取世界经济新的话语权,同时也是为了制衡中国在内的发展中国家。碳关税对我国出口的影响机制有二:第一,碳关税产生的价格效应促使出口商品成本上升,出口量下降,造成出口国净福利损失。第二,长期来看,碳关税的环境规制效应会促使出口企业实施创新、改进效率,企业竞争力增强。但是,就短期来说,由于我国尚不具备"波特假说"成立的前提条件,碳关税会促使成本上升,出口产品竞争力下降。本文系统分析了我国出口商品结构和地理方向,指出碳关税的推出将对我国当前出口贸易形成严峻的挑战,长期看将有利于我国市场结构、产业结构和出口结构的改善。基于以上的分析,文章提出了政府"环境外交"、逐步开征国内碳税、构建绿色制造体系等政策建议。