The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.     

1999—2009年我国不同收入水平下的碳排放差异分析

碳排放差异研究对于科学合理地制定我国节能减排政策具有重要的指导意义。在利用IPCC参考方法对中国1999—2009年期间各省（市）CO2排放量计算的基础上,引入Theil指数,定量分析了中国不同收入水平下的CO2省际差异及其与人均收入水平之间的关系。结果表明,1999—2003年中国人均CO2排放量随着人均收入水平的提高而增加,2003—2009年中国各收入水平省份的人均排放量近似于不规则的＂M＂型增长趋势,中等偏低收入省份的人均排放量迅速增加,并超过中等收入省份;不同收入水平省份之间和各省份内部的人均CO2排放水平均存在较大的差距,但省份之间的排放不平等水平明显大于省份内部的不平等水平。因此,中国在制定节能减排政策时,要充分考虑经济发展和人均收入水平的条件下,兼顾区域和省域碳排放的特征,制定合理有效的减排目标和计划。     

长期不同施肥条件下红壤小麦和玉米季CO_2、N_2O排放特征

基于中国农业科学院红壤实验站红壤旱地小麦-玉米轮作长期定位试验,采用静态箱/气相色谱法,研究红壤旱地连续施肥16 a后,不同施肥条件下小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2和N2O的排放特征。结果表明,CO2和N2O排放具有明显的季节性,施肥对土壤CO2和N2O排放有明显影响,且有机肥的施用显著促进了土壤CO2和N2O排放。不施肥对照(CK)、氮磷配施(NP)、氮钾配施(NK)、氮磷钾配施(NPK)和有机无机肥配施(NPKM)处理小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2累积排放量分别为5 904、8 062、4 298、9 235、14 098和4 708、7 530、5 435、7 089、15 472 kg.hm-2,土壤N2O累积排放量分别为0.34、0.63、0.44、0.62、1.00和0.25、0.39、0.35、0.52、1.73 kg.hm-2,小麦休闲期土壤CO2和N2 O累积排放量平均占小麦生长季的63.52%和28.43%,玉米休闲季平均占玉米生长季的49.98%和32.72%,说明休闲期土壤CO2和N2O累积排放量不容忽视。除玉米季NP、NK、NPK处理外,其他各处理小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2排放通量与5 cm深处土...     

A causal investigation on the determinants of CO2 in China

ABSTRACT

This article examines the causal relationship among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, per capita economic growth, and international trade using temporal econometric models with serial data for the period 1980–2017 in China. In the Armax model all regressors are significant in having influenced the dependent CO2 variable. Subsequently, unidirectional causalities are identified from energy consumption and from commercial opening to carbon dioxide emissions, from commercial opening to energy consumption, from carbon dioxide emissions to per capita economic growth and from economic growth to commercial opening. These results show that, over time, more energy consumption in China results in more carbon dioxide emissions so there will be more environment pollution.     

长期不同施肥条件下红壤小麦和玉米季CO2、N2O排放特征

基于中国农业科学院红壤实验站红壤旱地小麦-玉米轮作长期定位试验,采用静态箱/气相色谱法,研究红壤旱地连续施肥16 a后,不同施肥条件下小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2和N2O的排放特征。结果表明,CO2和N2O排放具有明显的季节性,施肥对土壤CO2和N2O排放有明显影响,且有机肥的施用显著促进了土壤CO2和N2O排放。不施肥对照（CK）、氮磷配施（NP）、氮钾配施（NK）、氮磷钾配施（NPK）和有机无机肥配施（NPKM）处理小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2累积排放量分别为5 904、8 062、4 298、9 235、14 098和4 708、7 530、5 435、7 089、15 472 kg.hm-2,土壤N2O累积排放量分别为0.34、0.63、0.44、0.62、1.00和0.25、0.39、0.35、0.52、1.73 kg.hm-2,小麦休闲期土壤CO2和N2 O累积排放量平均占小麦生长季的63.52%和28.43%,玉米休闲季平均占玉米生长季的49.98%和32.72%,说明休闲期土壤CO2和N2O累积排放量不容忽视。除玉米季NP、NK、NPK处理外,其他各处理小麦季和玉米季土壤CO2排放通量与5 cm深处土壤温度显著相关;而土壤N2O排放通量与土壤温度间均未表现出显著相关性;除NPKM处理外,其他各处理土壤CO2或N2O排放通量与土壤水分间相关性均未达显著水平。     

德国可再生能源利用现状与减少CO2排放量的探讨

联邦德国为了降低矿物燃料的消耗并减少ＣＯ２的排放量,在发展和利用再生能源方面作出了巨大的努力。本文阐述了德国可再生能源的利用现状,分析了利用可再生能源的技术,经济方面的问题,讨论了减少ＣＯ２排放理的有效方法。     

持续农业内涵的目标界定

本文试用持续农业的目标来界定持续农业的内涵。持续农业就是具有农业生产可持续性、经济可持续性、生态可持续性和农村社会可持续性的农业。首先分别阐述了持续农业的４个目标，然后就目标之间的相关与独立关系、轻重缓急关系做了分析     

Analysis of the relations between circular economy and sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

Since the United Nations approved the eight Millennium Development Goals in 2000 and, 15 years later, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the highest political institutions in the world have not stopped worrying about achieving the sustainability of the planet. Also in 2015, the European Commission prepared the European Union Action Plan for the Circular Economy, seeking a transition towards a less linear economy, in which products, materials, and resources are kept in the system for as long as possible and in which the generation of waste is minimized.

Since then, the European Union has continued issuing reports and communications to accelerate this process in search of a circular economy, making continuous references to the fact that, through circular economy initiatives, the SDGs would be fulfilled. In this context, the objectives of this paper are 1) to determine, through exploratory factor analysis and correlation analysis, whether there is a statistically significant relationship between circular economy initiatives undertaken in the EU and compliance with the SDGs; 2) to check, through a cluster analysis, if there are homogeneous groups of countries worldwide in terms of compliance with the SDGs; and 3) using this same technique, to check whether the countries that make up the EU achieve similar results in terms of compliance with the SDGs.     

Trends of SO2emission in the European union, 1985–1997

The trends of yearly emission of sulphur dioxide are analysed for the European Union during a period of time from 1985 to 1997. To achieve the above matter the method of the least squares model has been used. Major SO₂emissions were found in Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy and France. However, high SO₂emissions by km²were found in Germany, the United Kingdom and Belgium. The most remarkable results of the trend analysis appears as follows: 12 countries with significant downward trends, 2 countries with significant upward trends and 1 country with no significant trend. A decreasing trend is evident for the most part of the E.U., although Portugal and Greece generated significant increasing trends of SO₂emission for the mentioned year period.     

The determinants of CO2 emissions in MENA countries: a responsiveness scores approach

This paper examines the relationship among carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, GDP, and energy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries by using a Responsiveness Scores (RS) approach. Empirical results over the period 1971–2013 suggest that GDP per capita and energy consumption show positive RSs, while trade and urban population negative ones. Moreover, energy consumption and urban population reveal moderate increasing returns to scale, while GDP per capita exhibits decreasing positive returns. Furthermore, three-way factors analysis sets out that most of the countries lays on regions with moderate negative Total Responsiveness Scores (TRS). This means that when all factors are jointly increased, CO₂ emissions have a moderate decrease. In addition, some GCC countries present a different pattern compared to the average pattern of MENA countries. Finally, radar plots indicate that, overall, RS pattern over factors is moderately heterogeneous within GCC countries, with larger variability appearing in the response to urban population and GDP.     

Drivers of carbon dioxide emissions: an empirical investigation using hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering methods

The mitigation of CO2 emissions requires a global effort with common but differentiated responsibilities. In this paper, we identify clusters of CO2 emissions across 72 countries. First, using the stochastic version of the IPAT and employing the dynamic common correlated effects technique, we identify three key determinants affecting CO2 emissions (non-renewables, population, and real GDP). In the second step, both hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering methods are considered to identify the optimal number of clusters. We identify two to four clusters with different member countries, and in particular establish that in most cases, a 2-cluster solution appears to be optimal. The contents of clusters vary slightly according to the clustering methods for each period. The clustering results from using only the overall CO2 emissions indicate that the countries we consider form three clusters, with China and the USA each within a single member cluster. The remaining 70 countries form the third cluster. Our findings reflect the prominent roles of China and the USA in overall CO2 emissions. Analyses with sub-period and largest emitters reflect a different clustering structure. Some policy recommendations in setting emission reductions are made, considering different clusters across countries.     

Inclusive development,oil extraction and climate change: a multilevel analysis of Kenya

There has been considerable research on North–South issues on climate change; however, little work has been done on how the recent discovery of oil in some developing countries could affect North–South relations, the prospects for development for the South, climate change and local socio-environmental issues. Using the theory of inclusive development, the concept of the Right to Development, and their relation to stranded assets, this paper addresses the question: what does inclusive development imply at the national and global level in dealing with oil extraction in the context of climate change? Based on a literature review and a layered case study of Kenya, this paper concludes that (a) Kenyans argue that Kenya has a right to extract and use oil resources and that rich countries should reduce their extraction and use; (b) such a claim could be integrated in an appropriate emissions trading scheme; and that (c) Kenya should also account for the national and local socioecological aspects to reduce potential local conflict, yet the conditions favoring inclusive development are not yet established. However, such an argument may also lead to perverse results. If addressing climate change requires phasing out fossil fuels, this argument may lead to stranded assets in both developed and developing countries, and may ironically leave developing countries poorer off as stranded assets are possibly more expensive than having stranded resources.     

Holistic correlation of world’s largest social safety net and its outcomes with Sustainable Development Goals

The five largest social safety net (SSN) programmes in the world are being implemented in India, China and Brazil. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is one of these programmes and regarded as the world’s largest SSN. MGNREGA aims at enhancing livelihood security of households in rural India by providing guaranteed wage employment. The scheme has resulted in the creation of sustainable assets that promote the economic and infrastructure development. More than 33 million assets were built in the process of MGNREGA. These assets were spread out in 262,380 smallest units of administration covering 6887 sub-districts with the participation of more than 250 million human manpower. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) aims to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The 17 goals tackle the root cause of poverty and attempts to make a positive change for both people and planet. Ecological regeneration or rejuvenation during the development of the assets generated numerous tangible and intangible benefits to the community in a sustainable way. MGNREGA, a federal government-sponsored scheme, using a decentralized approach is directly or indirectly helping to achieve all the 17 goals of sustainable development in India. This article takes a holistic approach to correlate and map the concepts and outcomes of MGNREGA programme with SDG. This article emphasises the fact that community-based participation in the planning and development activities at the regional levels will yield benefits to the biosphere, society and economy at the national level.     

Renewable energy,non-renewable energy and sustainable development

The purpose of the present study is to analyse the effects of renewable energy and non-renewable energy on sustainable development. This study is pioneering in this respect because it analyses the effect of renewable energy on adjusted net savings, which is a good sustainable development variable. For this purpose, the data of 40 developed and 73 developing countries were included. According to the estimation results obtained in the study, renewable energy has a positive and statistically significant effect on sustainable development both in developed countries and in developing countries. The impact of renewable energy on sustainable development is greater than the impact of non-renewable energy. In this respect, as the renewable energy amount increases, the level of sustainable development increases. According to these results, the fact that countries use renewable energy more than non-renewable energy sources is extremely important in terms of making progress towards sustainability of development and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.     

Using the sustainable development goals towards a better understanding of sustainability challenges

The United Nations General Assembly agreed and approved in September 2015 the document ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’, which contains a set of measures aiming to balance economic progress and protection of the environment, whilst at the same time remain aware of the need to address the many disparities still seen between industrialised and developing countries. The Agenda document consists of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which among many other tasks, intend to eradicate poverty and create better health conditions in both developed and developing countries. But despite the need for and the relevance of the SDGs, it is unclear how they may help to address present and future sustainability challenges. Based on the need to shed some light on such a relationship, this paper describes each of the SDGs, and offers an analysis of the extent to which their implementation may offer support to ongoing attempts to handle some of the pressing problems seen in pursuing sustainable development. Three case studies are presented to show in practice how best the SDGs can be handled. The paper concludes that the process of implementing the SDGs offers unrivalled opportunities to advance equal opportunity and foster economic empowerment, helping countries to promote the cause of sustainable development in their territories, hence benefiting their populations.     

免耕和秸秆覆盖对农田土壤温室气体排放的影响

农业土壤是重要的温室气体排放源,各种农业措施对温室气体排放产生重要的影响。免耕和秸秆覆盖作为两种重要的保护性耕作措施正在被越来越广泛的应用,但是其对土壤温室气体排放的影响还不明确,结果存在分歧。通过对免耕和秸秆覆盖措施下农田三种主要的温室气体（CO2、CH4和N2O）排放的相关研究进行对比分析,探讨两种保护性农业措施对温室气体排放的影响。研究表明,免耕减少土壤干扰,增加团聚体的稳定性,有利于难分解碳的形成,减少土壤CO2排放;与常规耕作相比,免耕有利于CH4氧化,增强甲烷氧化菌活性,降低CH4排放;免耕对N2O排放的影响与气候类型和土壤性质有密切的相关关系,在干燥的气候条件下,免耕增加通气条件差的土壤的N2O排放,对通气好的土壤影响不大。而在湿润的气候条件下,不同的土壤性质结论不一致。秸秆覆盖增加土壤CO2排放,并随着秸秆覆盖量的增加而增大;秸秆覆盖对CH4排放的影响有很大的不确定性,与覆盖方式和覆盖秸秆性质有密切联系;大部分研究认为秸秆覆盖增加N2O排放,但也有研究认为秸秆覆盖对N2O排放无影响或降低N2O排放量,秸秆覆盖对N2O排放机理复杂,需要进一步研究。通过综述发现随着保护性农业措施的推广,大量的研究集中在其对作物产量、土壤水分利用率、土壤性质等方面的研究;而保护性农业措施对温室气体排放的研究相对较少,特别是对三种温室气体的综合影响研究并不多见。因此,需结合不同土地类型,开展不同气候类型下免耕和秸秆覆盖对三种主要温室气体排放影响的综合研究,预测增温潜势,为不同气候带保护性农业措施下温室气体排放提供基础数据,并为制定合理的耕作和秸秆覆盖措施提供理论支持。运用同位素示踪等新技术明确秸秆覆盖对温室气体排放的直接和间接贡献率,结合不同研究区?     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions: evidence from Malaysia’s tourism industry

The most important question raised from issues of environmental degradation is how economic activities bring about changes that will result in pollution. In the pursuit of tourism economy, contrary to popular interest, the travel and tourism (T&T) industry may cause environmental damages through the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from energy consumption in areas such as transportation and delivery of amenities. Given this major concern, this paper attempts to investigate the linkage between tourism and CO₂ emissions in Malaysia between 1981 and 2011. In particular, this study fills the knowledge gap by taking a closer look at the impact of international tourist arrivals on CO₂ emissions by sector – electricity and heat generation and transport. Results from the bound test method suggest that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under consideration when CO₂ emissions become the dependent variable. The original result is similarly robust to alternatives, which are CO₂ emissions from sectors of electricity and heat generation and transport. Furthermore, the vector error correction model causality analysis indicates a causal relationship between tourism and CO₂ emissions by transport and electricity and heat generation. Subsequently, several tourism-related policies are drawn from these findings.     

陆地碳平衡对大气CO_2升高的响应及其机制

研究陆地碳平衡对大气CO2浓度升高的响应,能为揭示碳失汇之迷提供有力证据,为制定缓解全球变化的合理政策措施提供理论依据.综述了陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应及其町能的机制,由于陆地生态系统的复杂性,以及不同的研究在具体的对象、时间、地点、方法和角度的差异,目前有关陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应还存在很大的分歧.陆地碳库主要可分为植被碳库和土壤碳库,大气CO2浓度升高主要是通过影响光合作用、土壤养分、水分供应、光照条件、群落组成、光合产物分配等方式影响植被碳库;而土壤碳库的响应机理主要包括光合产物向土壤的输入量、脱落物质量、养分循环、光合产物分配、根系周转期、微生物活性等的响应.关于陆地碳平衡对全球大气CO2升高的响应今后应该主要集中在:(1)不同生态系统影响全球植被碳库变化的主导因子;(2)大气CO2浓度升高与其他环境因子的互作效应;(3)大气CO2浓度升高对植物光合作用的促进效应与光合作用适应性间的关系;(4)地上碳库与地下碳库间的相关性,及其对大气CO2浓度升高的分别响应;(5)克服目前实验方法存在的局限性.     

中国碳排放权交易市场运行状况、问题和对策研究

排污权交易理论的提出解决了发展经济与治理环境不能并行的难题。以欧盟碳排权交易体系为标志的世界范围内的碳排放权交易市场已逐步形成,碳排放权交易的实施减缓了全球气候变暖的速度,改善了人类赖以生存的生态环境,从长期看也促进了该政策实施地经济的发展。CDM机制下拥有世界上最大碳供应量的中国在国际碳排放权交易市场上却一直处于价格接受者的地位,辛苦的减排成果却给国外买家创造了丰厚的利润。国内有关碳排放权交易的理论研究与交易市场的试点运行早已在前几年展开,目前也取得了较大的进展。全国7个碳交易试点运行市场在2014年6月达到了交易的高峰期,交易量达到285.9227万吨,交易额达到了16398.2325万元。另据国家发改委统计,截至2014年10月,7个碳交易试点省市共完成交易1375万吨二氧化碳,累计成交金额超过5亿元人民币。然而这样的交易额对蕴含巨大减排潜力的中国而言远远不足,中国的碳排放权交易市场还不够成熟,试点地区的碳交易市场也比较分散,尚未形成全国统一的排放权交易市场。碳排放企业参与碳交易市场的积极性不足,导致碳排放配额流动性过低,市场交易量较低,交易市场的活跃度不够,这对想要在2016年运行全国统一性碳排放权交易市场的中国来说是一重大挑战。文章首先分析对比了国内外排污权交易市场的运行机制与现状,其次对目前中国7大碳排放交易试点地区的市场成交额与成交量等交易状况基础进行分析,找出碳排放交易市场发展缓慢的根本原因,结合碳排放权金融市场的发展与碳金融衍生产品的创新,为中国在国际排放权市场上赢得话语权以及争取是“十三五”期间构建相对成熟稳定的国内排放权交易市场的给出建议。     

Tourism effects on the environment and economic sustainability of sub-Saharan Africa

This paper integrates tourism, economic growth, and environmental issues in a multivariate format. Unlike recent research on this topic, a panel data of selected sample nations of sub-Saharan Africa is adopted by using cointegration and panel regression models. The current research discovers both long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics between economic growth, tourism, energy use, and carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, tourism and energy use show a highly significant direct impact on economic growth. In addition, tourism, energy use, and economic growth yield a highly significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Dissecting the region into oil producers and non-oil producers further suggests that the economic growth of sub-Saharan Africa has been accomplished by strong growth in tourism and energy use. However, there is highly significant evidence that in oil producing countries, CO₂ emissions are directly affected by energy use and economic growth and not by tourism. For non-oil producing countries, tourism and energy use but not economic growth incur a highly significant positive impact on carbon emissions.