能源消费结构对京津冀经济发展的影响研究——基于Panel-Data模型

能源是经济发展的重要引擎,能源消费结构对区域经济发展质量有着重要影响。作为我国重要的经济增长极之一,京津冀地区能源消费巨大,能源消费结构改善关系到区域经济协同发展、人们生活水平提高和环境保护。通过选取京津冀2000—2014年的煤炭、石油、天然气、电力等能源消费结构和经济发展指标数据,建立能源消费结构与经济发展指标的面板数据模型。研究发现,京津冀能源消费总量对人均地区生产总值具有正向作用,电力对人均地区生产总值具有正向影响,而煤炭、石油具有反向影响。在此基础上,提出在改善区域能源供给方面采用适度提高能源总量,减少煤炭等重污染能源比重的政策措施,以有效促进京津冀的经济协同发展和人们生活水平提高。     

西藏农村能源消费及环境影响研究

西藏农村人口现有220多万,占全区总人口80％以上,农村经济落后,城乡差距很大。西藏农村能源资源主要有水力、地热、太阳能、风力、林木和畜粪等,煤炭、石油、天然气等高热值的优质能源很少。在这种经济发展水平及能源资源基础条件下,农村能源消费中高热值的现代能源比重很低,主要以生物质能如薪柴、牛粪、草皮等为主。这种低水平的能源消费结构已经对西藏脆弱的生态环境造成了巨大的破坏,西藏未来的能源发展战略迫切需要改变农村目前的消费结构,应发展太阳能、风能、农村小水电及输入高热值的化石能源替代目前生物质能的消费,减少因能源消费对西藏生态环境的破坏。     

资源环境约束下煤炭产业生态效率测评及其影响因素分析

通过文献回顾和理论分析,构建由资源效率指标和环境效率指标共同构成的煤炭产业生态效率评价体系,运用DEA方法分别测算煤炭产业的生态效率、资源效率和环境效率,通过构建Tobit回归模型,实证分析了我国煤炭产业生态效率的影响因素。结果表明:煤炭产业的资源效率、环境效率和生态效率总体偏低,资源效率是制约煤炭产业生态发展的主要因素;研发投入强度、利用外资水平和所有制结构对煤炭产业生态效率的提高发挥着积极的作用,而外部监督与生态效率呈现负相关,能源消费结构对生态效率的影响不显著。     

我国能源消费结构与产业发展影响分析

能源消费结构和产业结构的发展都遵循着一定规律,二者之间相互影响,分析产业发展对能源消费结构的影响,对协调能源结构和产业结构发展具有指导作用。从各产业对能源的需求发展趋势,可以局部分析产业需求量对能源结构的影响;建立模型分析各产业生产总值与能源消费结构的关系,可以从量上考察产业发展对能源消费结构的影响,利用上述方法能揭示产业与能源消费结构发展之间相互影响的部分规律。     

中国区域能源效率及其影响因素——基于面板随机前沿模型的分析CSSCI

基于2000—2015年省级面板数据,利用面板随机前沿模型估计了我国30个省份的区域能源效率,并通过对无效率项的条件期望估计,检验了人均GDP、城镇化率、工业结构、对外贸易和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响。能源效率估计结果显示,我国能源效率整体上呈逐年上升趋势,但区域间的差异较明显,呈现东部高、中西部低的分布特征。无效率项的估计结果表明,人均GDP和城镇化率对我国能源效率均存在显著的积极影响,对外贸易则不利于我国能源效率的改善,工业结构和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响在统计上不显著,但从弹性系数的估计值看,工业比重和煤炭消费比重的增加倾向于降低我国的能源效率。     

工业能源消费对环境质量影响的灰色关联分析——以湘潭市为例

能源消费引起了严重的环境污染,降低了环境质量,影响了经济发展.将灰色关联分析引入到湘潭市的能源消费和环境质量关系研究中,利用统计数据进行定量分析,探索现有能源消费结构和其环境影响的内在灰色关联,确定各种能源消费对湘潭市环境质量的不同影响程度,为调整能源消费结构、最小化环境压力、改善环境质量提供科学依据.     

中国区域能源效率及其影响因素——基于面板随机前沿模型的分析

基于2000—2015年省级面板数据,利用面板随机前沿模型估计了我国30个省份的区域能源效率,并通过对无效率项的条件期望估计,检验了人均GDP、城镇化率、工业结构、对外贸易和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响。能源效率估计结果显示,我国能源效率整体上呈逐年上升趋势,但区域间的差异较明显,呈现东部高、中西部低的分布特征。无效率项的估计结果表明,人均GDP和城镇化率对我国能源效率均存在显著的积极影响,对外贸易则不利于我国能源效率的改善,工业结构和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响在统计上不显著,但从弹性系数的估计值看,工业比重和煤炭消费比重的增加倾向于降低我国的能源效率。     

从减排视角重新审视核电发展

我国是煤炭大国,在一次能源消费结构中煤炭几乎占据70%的份额,相对于全球平均水平的28%而言,我国是以煤炭消耗为主的少数国家之一。从环保角度看,调整能源结构是改善环境质量必要的经济和行政手段之一,快速发展核电是调整能源结构的重要措施     

修订《大气污染防治法实施细则》的思考

ViewsonTheAmendmentofImplementationDetailsofAirPollutionPreventionLaw一、修订《大气污染防治法实施细则》十分必要和非常迫切《大气污染防治法》已经在1995年8月修订后重新公布，修订后的大气法提出了一系列大气污染防治重要对策，包括：开采、加工和使用过程对煤炭品质提出环境保护要求；划定酸雨控制区和二氧化硫污染控制区以及在两区内实施控制二氧化硫污染的特殊控制措施；为防治城市大气污染改变城市能源消费结构，而提出的在大中城市逐步停止民用煤炭的直接燃用；建立对严重污染大气环境的落后生产工艺和设备的淘汰制度；提…     

重庆直辖以来的能源消费特征及影响因素研究

利用1997—2016年重庆的能源消费、经济、产业、人口等数据,从纵横向对重庆能源消费状况进行比较分析,构建岭回归模型,对重庆能源消费总量的影响因素进行研究。分析发现,重庆的能源消费总量稳步增长,煤炭消费所占比重有所降低,能源消费结构趋向多元化与合理化;能源消费强度有所降低且低于全国平均水平;第二产业终端能源消费比重较高,主要集中在化学原料及其制品制造业,非金属矿物制品业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业。岭回归模型分析显示,能源利用效率、第三产业比重、城镇化率、试验发展(RD)经费内部支出对其有显著影响。为了控制能源消费增长,重庆亟待调整能源消费结构,优化产业结构,走新型城镇化道路,并挖掘建筑节能和交通节能潜力,继续加大RD经费支出力度等。     

预测流速法烟尘采样中采样嘴的选择及采样流量的计算

本文用公式计算出合理的采样嘴直径和采样流量,可以提高工作效率和数据的准确性     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

一带密溪淌绿水

在离瑞金市区四十多公里的九堡镇凤凰山下,有一处一带密溪淌绿水,千寻松竹染红霞”的村庄,这就是容家古村密溪。     

Evaluating Flow Diversion Impacts to Groundwater‐Dependent Riparian Vegetation with Flow Alteration and Groundwater Model Analysis

An approach for assessing the potential ecologic response of groundwater‐dependent riparian vegetation to flow alteration is developed, focusing on change to groundwater. Groundwater requirements for riparian vegetation are reviewed in conjunction with flow alteration statistics. Where flow alteration coincides with groundwater‐related vegetation sensitivities, scenarios are developed for groundwater simulation. Groundwater depths and recession rates in the riparian zone are simulated for baseline and altered stream hydrographs, with changes to river stage and width represented with a transient, flow‐dependent boundary condition. Potential flow diversion from the Upper Gila River in New Mexico is examined. Statistical flow alteration analysis, applying prospective diversions to a 76‐year record of daily flow, shows that flows in the winter‐spring months and within the high‐pulse to small flood range are subject to greatest potential change. Groundwater simulation scenarios are developed for these flow conditions in representative dry, near‐average, and wet years. Differences in groundwater elevations, generally less than 0.25 m during the flow alteration period, dissipate rapidly following cessation of diversion. Relating groundwater depth, recession rates and range of fluctuations to riparian vegetation needs, we find adverse ecological response is not expected from groundwater impacts for the flow alteration examined.     

Constructing an Interdisciplinary Flow Regime Recommendation1

Bartholow, John M., 2010. Constructing an Interdisciplinary Flow Regime Recommendation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00461.x Abstract: It is generally agreed that river rehabilitation most often relies on restoring a more natural flow regime, but credibly defining the desired regime can be problematic. I combined four distinct methods to develop and refine month-by-month and event-based flow recommendations to protect and partially restore the ecological integrity of the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins, Colorado. A statistical hydrologic approach was used to summarize the river’s natural flow regime and set provisional monthly flow targets at levels that were historically exceeded 75% of the time. These preliminary monthly targets were supplemented using results from three Poudre-specific disciplinary studies. A substrate maintenance flow model was used to better define the high flows needed to flush accumulated sediment from the river’s channel and help sustain the riparian zone in this snowmelt-dominated river. A hydraulic/habitat model and a water temperature model were both used to better define the minimum flows necessary to maintain a thriving cool water fishery. The result is a range of recommended monthly flows and daily flow guidance illustrating the advantage of combining a wide range of available disciplinary information, supplemented by judgment based on ecological principles and a general understanding of river ecosystems, in a highly altered, working river.     

Instream Flow Science For Sustainable River Management1

Abstract: Concerns for water resources have inspired research developments to determine the ecological effects of water withdrawals from rivers and flow regulation below dams, and to advance tools for determining the flows required to sustain healthy riverine ecosystems. This paper reviews the advances of this environmental flows science over the past 30 years since the introduction of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology. Its central component, Physical HABitat SIMulation, has had a global impact, internationalizing the e‐flows agenda and promoting new science. A global imperative to set e‐flows, including an emerging trend to set standards at the regional scale, has led to developments of hydrological and hydraulic approaches but expert judgment remains a critical element of the complex decision‐making process around water allocations. It is widely accepted that river ecosystems are dependent upon the natural variability of flow (the flow regime) that is typical of each hydro‐climatic region and upon the range of habitats found within each channel type within each region. But as the sophistication of physical (hydrological and hydraulic) models has advanced emerging biological evidence to support those assumptions has been limited. Empirical studies have been important to validate instream flow recommendations but they have not generated transferable relationships because of the complex nature of biological responses to hydrological change that must be evaluated over decadal time‐scales. New models are needed to incorporate our evolving knowledge of climate cycles and morphological sequences of channel development but most importantly we need long‐term research involving both physical scientists and biologists to develop new models of population dynamics that will advance the biological basis for 21st Century e‐flow science.     

Quantifying Tradeoffs Associated with Hydrologic Environmental Flow Methods

Freshwater management requires balancing and tradingoff multiple objectives, many of which may be competing. Ecological needs for freshwater are often described in terms of environmental flow recommendations (e.g., minimum flows), and there are many techniques for developing these recommendations, which range from hydrologic rules to multidisciplinary analyses supported by large teams of subject matter experts. Although hydrologic rules are well acknowledged as overly simplified, these techniques remain the state‐of‐the‐practice in many locations. This article seeks to add complexity to the application of these techniques by studying the emergent properties of hydrologic environmental flow methodologies. Two hydrologic rules are applied: minimum flow criteria and sustainability boundaries. Objectives and metrics associated with withdrawal rate and similarity to natural flow regimes are used to tradeoff economic and environmental needs, respectively, over a range of flow thresholds and value judgments. A case study of hypothetical water withdrawals on the Middle Oconee River near Athens, Georgia is applied to demonstrate these techniques. For this case study, sustainability boundaries emerge as preferable relative to both environmental and economic outcomes. Methods applied here provide a mechanism for examining the role of stakeholder values and tradeoffs in application of hydrologic rules for environmental flows.     

Nitrogen Flow Analysis in Huizhou, South China

Eutrophication due to uncontrolled discharges of nitrogen and phosphorus has become a serious pollution problem in many Chinese rivers. This article analyzes the nitrogen flow in Huizhou City in the East River watershed in south China. The material accounting method was applied to investigate the nitrogen flows related to human activities, which consist of the natural and anthropogenic systems. In Huizhou City, the nonpoint source pollution was quantified by the export coefficient method and the domestic discharge was estimated as the product of per capita nitrogen contribution and population. This research was conducted based on statistical information and field data from 1998 in the Huizhou City. The results indicated that the major nitrogen flows in this area were river loads, fertilizer and feedstuff imports, atmospheric deposition, animal manure volatilization, and processes related to burning and other emissions. In 1998, about 40% of the nitrogen was retained in the system and could result in potential environmental problems. Nitrogen export was mainly by rivers, which account for about 57% of the total nitrogen exported. Comparisons made between the East River and the Danube and Yangtze Rivers show that the unit area nitrogen export was of the same magnitude and the per capita nitrogen export was comparable.     

Evaluating the Applicability of a Two‐dimensional Flow Model of a Highly Heterogeneous Domain to Flow and Environmental Management

Two‐dimensional simulation of highly heterogeneous domains, especially those with disparate length scales, roughness conditions, and geometries, often leads to challenges such as long computation times and numerical instability. Simulation of challenging domains is often needed to guide flood management and environmental regulation agencies in operation and potential domain modifications. This work evaluates the ability of a two‐dimensional unsteady hydrodynamic model to represent long‐duration transient flows over a domain with highly heterogeneous roughness, geometric characteristics, and length scales through bed roughness representation. The domain includes 13 km of Cache Creek and the 14.5 km² Cache Creek Settling Basin, which traps both sediment and mercury. Calibration under different bed roughness methods, validation, and modeling results of bathymetric modification scenarios are presented. The modeling approach's performance supports its application as a tool for management of similar domains, such as settling basins, leveed floodplains, and reservoirs. Accurate representation of flow dynamics can also inform environmental management that involves transport of sediments, nutrients, and heavy metals. This study found that a two‐dimensional unsteady flow model can accurately represent long‐duration transient flow in a large settling basin with highly heterogeneous characteristics without parsing of the domain or flow events simulated.