SENSITWITY OF IRRIGATION DEMAND IN A HUMID-TEMPERATE REGION TO HYPOTHETICAL CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: An irrigation model based on a modified Thornthwaite water balance was used to simulate the effects of various hypothetical climatic changes on annual irrigation demand in a humidtemperate climate. The climatic-change scenarios consisted of combinations of changes in temperature, precipitation, and stomatal resistance of plants to transpiration. The objectives were to (1) examine the effects of long-term changes in these components of climatic change on annual irrigation demand, and (2) identify which of these factors would cause the largest changes in annual irrigation demand. Hypothetical climatic changes that only included increases in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in increased annual irrigation demand, even with a 20 percent increase in precipitation. The model results showed that, for the ranges of changes in temperature and precipitation used in this study, changes in irrigation demand were more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation. Model results also indicated that increased stomatal resistance to transpiration counteracted the effects of increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation on irrigation demand. Changes in irrigation demand were even more sensitive to changes in stomatal resistance than to changes in temperature. A large amount of uncertainty is associated with predictions of future climatic conditions; however, uncertainty associated with natural climatic variability may be larger and may mask the effects of climatic change on irrigation demand.     

Linking socio-economic factors, environment and land cover in the German Highlands, 1945-1999

Land-cover changes are caused by human activities and natural ecological processes. Thus, our study uses an interdisciplinary approach to research land-cover changes. We present a method to (i) link socio-economic/environmental factors and land-cover changes, (ii) identify indicators of land-cover changes, and (iii) distinguish between socio-economic and environmental indicators associated with local types of overall land-cover changes. The study was conducted in the Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany, a typical marginal rural landscape. In this region, we investigated land-cover changes occurring over the period 1945-1999. Land-cover data were derived from multi-temporal aerial photographs. Types of overall land-cover changes characterising the districts within the study area were differentiated. With the help of redundancy analysis (RDA), we analysed the relationships between land-cover changes and widely available socio-economic/environmental factors. The results reveal that both individual land-cover changes at patch level and types of overall land-cover changes characterising districts are correlated with socio-economic and environmental factors. Whereas the stable environmental factors are drivers of land-cover changes in our rural study area, socio-economic factors introduced into the analysis mostly result from land-cover changes. We identified correlative socio-economic indicators that cannot explain land-cover changes, but that in combination with the environmental factors can be used to greatly facilitate the reconstruction of past land-cover changes and thus lead to a better knowledge of land-cover history. Based on the types of overall land-cover changes, the results of the study can be adopted for the study of land-cover changes in other regions.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

Assessing relatedness and redundancy of forest monitoring and change indicators

Information on changes in forest structure and composition is required for informed, adaptive management and conservation. As the collection of such information requires field studies that are expensive, difficult, and time consuming, the prioritization of metrics can be of significant value. This study evaluates a number of metrics used to assess changes in forest structure and composition for a set of 59 forests in five countries - Kenya, India, Nepal, Uganda and USA. Changes in tree density are significantly positively correlated with changes in species richness, and changes in sapling/shrub density are significantly positively correlated with changes in species richness. Thus, rapid assessments of tree density change can be used to prioritize locations where there may be rapid deterioration in tree diversity, where the collection of detailed information on changes in species composition may be prioritized. Changes in tree density do not reflect changes in shrub and sapling density. The shrub and sapling layer appears to respond differently to human or natural disturbances compared to the tree layer, and may require separate assessment. Changes in tree DBH and tree height are not completely congruent, indicating that measurements of DBH and height may be required to accurately estimate changes in above ground carbon storage over time, for programs such as REDD that provide payment for carbon sequestration services.     

伊宁市大气污染特征及变化浅析

通过对伊宁市2005年1月起空气自动监测系统正式运行以来的监测数据分析,归纳、总结伊宁市大气污染物随季节变化规律,每日、小时变化规律及市区不同地区大气污染物分布特征,并对这种特征及变化规律进行分析.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Temporal Changes in Streamflow and Attribution of Changes to Climate and Landuse in Wisconsin Watersheds

Previous historic trends analyses on 21st Century hydrologic data in the United States generally focus on annual flow statistics and have continued to use USGS hydro‐climatic data network (HCDN) stations, although post‐1988 diversions and runoff regulations are not reflected in the HCDN. Using a more recent dataset, Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II (GAGES II), compiled by Falcone (2012), which includes more watersheds with reference conditions, a comprehensive analysis of changes in seasonal, and annual streamflow in Wisconsin watersheds is demonstrated. Given the pronounced influence of seasonal hydrology in Wisconsin watersheds, the objective of this study is to elucidate the nature of temporal (annual, seasonal, and monthly) changes in runoff. Considerable temporal and regional variability was found in annual and seasonal streamflow changes between the two historic periods 1951‐1980 and 1981‐2010 considered in the study. For example, the northern watersheds show relatively small changes in streamflow discharge ranging from ?6.0 to 4.2%, while the southern watersheds show relatively large increases in streamflow discharge ranging from 13.1 to 18.2%. To apportion streamflow changes to climate and nonclimatic factors, a method based on potential evapotranspiration changes is demonstrated. Results show that nonclimatic factors account for more than 60% of changes in annual runoff in Wisconsin watersheds considered in the study.     

SUBSTATE INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION FOR MANAGING LAKES AND WATERSHEDS: A WISCONSIN CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Since the 1970s, there has been extensive experimentation with new approaches to water and land resources management at the state and local levels. There is a critical need to document, assess, and synthesize lessons learned from the nation's recent experience with subnational institutional changes in environmental management. This paper examines institutional changes aimed at more integrated water and related resources management at the substate level of government. We describe innovative institutional changes in a case study of Dane County, Wisconsin, and assess the implementation and preliminary consequences of these changes. Dissatisfaction with watershed and lake management results and perceptions of institutional inadequacy led to significant changes in the structure and rules for county resources management. A new entity was created to focus watershed management responsibilities. The scope of authority and powers were expanded. However, these changes all occurred within the framework of a general purpose unit of government. The new institutional arrangements have achieved a number of milestones, although it is premature to fully assess resource outcomes. The substantive changes, implementation tactics, and overall experience in Dane County's reforms - especially with regard to addressing intergovernmental tensions and decentralized management, limited authorities and funding, and public and constituency support - have useful implications for other substate efforts at more comprehensive and integrated water resources management.     

Landscape changes in agrarian landscapes in the 1990s: the interaction between farmers and the farmed landscape. A case study from Jutland, Denmark

Recent landscape changes in a farmed landscape are analysed and related to farm and farmer characteristics. It is assumed that farm and farmer characteristics serve as mediators of large scale or macro driving forces of change-in the present case, a changing farming context including demands for a more environmentally friendly farming practise and a reduced output. The results are based on multivariate analyses of data collected from structured interviews of 160 farmers in a case study area, in central Jutland, measuring 5000 ha. The analysis shows that farmers are highly involved in landscape changes. The investigated landscape changes include creation and removal of landscape elements as well as certain management changes. The most common activity was creation of elements: hedgerows, small woodlands and conversion of rotational arable land to permanent grassland, whereas removal of elements, mainly hedgerows and semi-natural grasslands, were seen less frequently. Management changes like abandonment of permanent grassland were widespread. The results indicate a general extensification of the land use and the authors interpret the results partly as an indication of a change from productivism to a more multifunctional agricultural regime. The observed landscape changes at the farm level show a low, but structured relationship with the current farm and farmer characteristics, meaning that landscape changes were undertaken by various farmers and on various farms. On a general level, however, the age of the farmer and the duration of farm ownership seem to have a major influence on the landscape changes.     

Land Use/Cover Changes, the Environment and Water Resources in Northeast China

Land use/cover in Northeast China went through extensive changes during the 1990s. This report explores the interaction between these changes and the environment, and the implication of these changes for rational allocation of water resources. Two maps of land use/cover produced from 1990 and 2000 Landsat TM satellite images were overlaid in ArcInfo to reveal changes in land cover. Results indicate that farmland and grassland decreased by 386,195 and 140,075 ha, respectively, while water, built-up areas, and woodland increased by 238,596, 194,231, and 192,682 ha, respectively. These changes bore a mutual relationship with the environmental change. On the one hand, climate warming made some of these changes (e.g., conversion of woodland and grassland to farmland) possible. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. These changes, in turn, caused severe environmental degradation and increased flooding. The change between dry field and rice paddy, in particular, raised severe implications for the proper allocation of limited water resources in the Northeast. Efforts are needed to coordinate their rational allocation to reap maximum and sustainable return over the entire area, not just in some localities. Results obtained in this study should be of interest to the international audience of Environmental Management in that they highlight the interactive nature of human activities and the environment and the off-site impact of these activities on the environment.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN WATER AVAILABILITY ON AGRICULTURE IN THE TRUCKEE AND CARSON RIVER BASINS,NEVADA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Effects of climate change are likely to be detected in nearly all sectors and regions of the economy, with both winners and losers. One of the consequences of climatic changes could be altered regional water supplies. This paper presents an investigation of regional agricultural implications of changes in water availability. Specifically, using a profit maximization approach, the economic consequences of altered water availability in the Great Basin of Nevada are analyzed in terms of the effects on net returns of agricultural producers. Under the scenarios analyzed in this paper, it is found that with adequate water systems, increase in streamflow and consequent increase in water availability could significantly benefit agricultural producers of this region. Net returns to irrigators could increase by 8 to 13 percent, not taking into account the possibility of changes in crop yields and prices. It is also shown that the benefits from increased water availability are sensitive to likely crop yield and price changes. The potential for adverse effects of climatic changes on water supply is also considered by analyzing the effects of decreased water availability. Under decreased water availability scenarios, farmer net returns decrease substantially.     

Climate- and human-induced woody vegetation changes in Botswana and their implications for human adaptation

For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place, the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested. Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in Botswana are the major policy options.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

CHEMISTRY OF MUD-WATER INTERFACE IN AN IMPOUNDMENT1

ABSTRACT: Lake Evergreen was investigated during the time of filling and thereafter for the change of water chemistry at the mud-water interface. The results show that aging or maturing occurs at the nascent stage of the impoundment history. There are many factors affecting concentration of chemical constituents at the interface. There are hydrologic changes such as wind and wave action, or water circulation which can influence all chemical parameters. There is also biological activity, which may involve changes in concentrations of silica, phosphate, alkalinity, pH, ammonium, Kjeldahl nitrogen, etc. An associated effect is the reduction of oxidation-reduction potential which in turn affects the concentration of manganese, etc. All these changes occur primarily in autumn. In late spring to summer, there are changes of nitrite and nitrate accompanied by changes in dissolved oxygen. A water chemistry model at the interface is illustrated.     

Cultural shift towards sustainability in the construction industry of Hong Kong

Sustainable development is forward-looking; it is a continuous mission for future developments of human society. A genuinely sustainable society is one that initiates developments in sustainable ways. The development of a genuinely sustainable society is supported by its citizens who think and act according to a recognized code of conduct - the sustainable culture. Similar to other forms of culture, sustainable culture of a society is not static, but changes over time. The changes found in a sustainable culture are reflections of the status of sustainability in a society and these changes should be measured from time to time. The resulting measurement gives very important information for decision-makers, in the government and in the private sector, to examine the magnitude of changes that have taken place in a given period of time. The results will also enable them to review and adjust policies in order to better accommodate changes according to the trends of society.This paper provides a method – the T-model, to investigate and measure the extent of change of sustainable culture through two extensive surveys among participants of the construction industry of Hong Kong. The change in sustainable culture is reflected by the change in attitude and practice among construction participants, this can be found in their performance in project development, design and construction operations. The data of these changes are collected and converted to numerical scores. The T-model synthesized these scores and revealed the change of sustainable culture within the specific study time frame.     

天津市耕地数量动态变化及保护对策研究

根据土地调查和统计资料,分析了天津市自1949年以来耕地数量动态变化及其驱动机制,并在此基础上,提出了抑制耕地流失和促进耕地数量增加的相关对策。研究表明,1949年以来,天津市耕地数量经历了波动变化和持续缓慢减少两大阶段,耕地数量总体上缓慢减少;人口增长、经济发展、城市化、相关政策、比较经济利益、环境变化和灾害等因子对耕地数量变化具有明显的驱动作用;耕地保护需要进行多方面地不懈努力。     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

Luring anglers to enhance fisheries

Current fisheries management is, unfortunately, reactive rather than proactive to changes in fishery characteristics. Furthermore, anglers do not act independently on waterbodies, and thus, fisheries are complex socio-ecological systems. Proactive management of these complex systems necessitates an approach--adaptive fisheries management--that allows learning to occur simultaneously with management. A promising area for implementation of adaptive fisheries management is the study of luring anglers to or from specific waterbodies to meet management goals. Purposeful manipulation of anglers, and its associated field of study, is nonexistent in past management. Evaluation of different management practices (i.e., hypotheses) through an iterative adaptive management process should include both a biological and sociological survey to address changes in fish populations and changes in angler satisfaction related to changes in management. We believe adaptive management is ideal for development and assessment of management strategies targeted at angler participation. Moreover these concepts and understandings should be applicable to other natural resource users such as hunters and hikers.