Impact of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in China＇s Coastal Region

Climate change and urbanization issues are the two key factors that make humans liable to be affected by disasters, which are overlapped in urban agglomeration. The five big urban agglom- erations of C...     

未来中国滨海城市海岸洪水灾害的社会经济损失风险

气候变化背景下海平面上升和强台风增加,其引发的海岸洪水灾害增强,未来中国滨海城市海岸洪水灾害的社会经济损失风险明显增大。为此,基于IPCC气候变化综合风险理论,构建了滨海城市海岸洪水灾害风险评价体系,应用自然环境和社会经济模拟数据以及设定的适应条件,评估了温室气体低、中等和很高排放（浓度）（SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5,简称SSPx-y）三种新气候情景下,到2030、2050和2100年,中国滨海城市海岸洪水灾害的社会经济损失风险,分析并提出了滨海大城市的应对策略。主要结论：①在不同SSPx-y情景下,到2030年,中国滨海城市海岸洪水灾害的社会经济损失较小,但是,在2050年之后,社会经济损失风险程度明显增大。②在SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下,到2050、2100年,上海市、广州市和天津市社会经济损失风险位于中国滨海城市前列。③未来上海市、广州市和天津市社会经济损失风险增加主要归因于海平面上升引起的海岸洪水危害性的显著增强、人口和高GDP产业聚集于低洼地区产生的系统高暴露度以及人口老龄化等社会系统脆弱性上升等因素。④滨海城市需考虑采取更具气候恢复力的解决框架,增强应对海岸洪水灾害能力的建设。包括完善海岸防护工程的建设,合理规划城市产业结构与布局,降低海岸洪水危害性和城市暴露度、脆弱性,加强海岸洪水灾害的早期预警和应急体系等灾害风险管理能力的建设。     

Sustainable Development in Small Island Developing States

This paper explores the status of sustainable development in small island developing states (SIDS), through the presentation of a case study on the Maldives, which is a typical small island developing state in the Central Indian Ocean. At the outset, a brief history of sustainable development as related to SIDS on the international agenda is outlined, starting from Rio to Barbados to Johannesburg. SIDS are expected to face many challenges and constraints in pursuing sustainable development due to their ecological fragility and economic vulnerability. It is the position of this paper that issues related to environmental vulnerability are of the greatest concern. A healthy environment is the basis of all life-support systems, including that of human well-being and socio-economic development. Priority environmental problems are: climate change and sea-level rise, threats to biodiversity, threats to freshwater resources, degradation of coastal environments, pollution, energy and tourism. Among these, climate change and its associated impacts are expected to pose the greatest threat to the environment and therefore to sustainable development. For small islands dependent on fragile marine ecosystems, in particular on coral reefs, for their livelihoods and living space, adverse effects of climate change such as increased frequency of extreme weather events and sea-level rise will exacerbate the challenges they already face. It is concluded that the paper path from Rio to Barbados to Johannesburg has made significant progress. However, much remains to be done at the practical level, particularly by the developed countries in terms of new and additional efforts at financial and technical assistance, to make sustainable development a reality for SIDS.     

Beyond Counting Climate Consensus

Several studies have been using quantified consensus within climate science as an argument to foster climate policy. Recent efforts to communicate such scientific consensus attained a high public profile but it is doubtful if they can be regarded successful. We argue that repeated efforts to shore up the scientific consensus on minimalist claims such as “humans cause global warming” are distractions from more urgent matters of knowledge, values, policy framing and public engagement. Such efforts to force policy progress through communicating scientific consensus misunderstand the relationship between scientific knowledge, publics and policymakers. More important is to focus on genuinely controversial issues within climate policy debates where expertise might play a facilitating role. Mobilizing expertise in policy debates calls for judgment, context and attention to diversity, rather than deferring to formal quantifications of narrowly scientific claims.     

Australian approaches to coastal vulnerability assessment

The Australian coastline is one of the longest and most diverse of any in the world, and Australian researchers have developed preliminary models of the behaviour of major coastal systems such as beaches and reefs. The Australian population is particularly focused along the coastline, especially in metropolitan centres; however, the population of regional centres along the coast is increasing steadily in response to a phenomenon termed seachange. Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by potential impacts as a result of climate change, as indicated by the successive assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although Australia played a central role in applying a common methodology (CM), developed from IPCC guidelines in the 1990s, and in devising alternative approaches, which were initially trialled at nine sites on the Australian coast, there has not been a nationally co-ordinated approach to assessing the coastal vulnerability of Australia, and such an approach is only emerging now. Instead, there have been a series of different approaches adopted to look at the different parts of the Australian coast, including wetland mapping in northern Australia; geomorphic unit mapping in South Australia; storm surge vulnerability modelling in Queensland; probabilistic approaches to beach erosion in New South Wales; indicative mapping of potential coastal retreat in Tasmania. Additionally, there have been methods proposed by insurers and coastal engineers to meet their requirements. Since 2005, the Australian government has once again seen the need for a national coastal vulnerability assessment, and a series of studies are planned or under way to achieve the aims of a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework.     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

Canadian Weathercasters’ Current and Potential Role as Climate Change Communicators

ABSTRACT

Climatologists worldwide are calling for urgent action to manage climate change, but public engagement remains a significant challenge. This lack of engagement is often attributed to psychological distance: climate change is perceived as something happening far away, to other people, or in a hypothetical future. TV weathercasters are ideally situated to communicate the geographically and temporally proximate impacts of climate change and increase public engagement. This study explores the status of climate change reporting amongst weathercasters in Canada, where no such research has been conducted. The respondents suggested that many, but not all, weathercasters are engaged with climate change and interested in presenting local, climate-related content; however, their on-air climate change communication behavior is highly limited. This analysis builds on research conducted with American weather broadcaster by indicating that Canadian weathercasters share their potential as effective climate change communicators, but are highly uncertain about their capacity to support this role.     

“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化的行政手段评估

在中国应对气候变化政策体系中,目标责任制和淘汰落后产能这两项行政手段具有核心地位。充分认识其作用机制,阐述其优势与不足,对于中国碳减排政策的优化设计意义深远。本文遵循气候变化评估报告的原则和方法,以国内外公开发表的相关文献为基础,评估了这两项政策的作用机制、政策有效性以及存在的问题。结果显示:目标责任制和淘汰落后产能这两项行政手段具有高度的有效性。这些行政手段顺应了中国的各项体制机制,确保了中国应对气候变化目标的实现。具体来看,节能降碳目标责任制通过明确地方政府作为节能降碳政策执行主体的责任,改变了原有的官员激励体系,强化了政府对既有政策的执行,还促进了地方政府和企业各项节能降碳制度的形成。淘汰落后产能以目标责任考核为基础,结合各种激励政策,在节能降碳、化解产能过剩等方面发挥了巨大效应。尽管行政手段在温室气体减排中的作用非常有效,但是这种自上而下的压力传递机制难以真正内化为地方政府和企业开展节能降碳工作的自发性力量。此外,由于节能降碳目标的层层分解,县级及以下政府承担了与其行政管理权限并不匹配的责任。在压力体制下,过剩产能的市场退出障碍和地方政府、企业产能扩张的冲动依然存在。未来应结合行政和市场手段的优缺点,综合施策,促进温室气体减排长效机制的形成。     

Between Guilt and Obligation: Debating the Responsibility for Climate Change and Climate Politics in the Media

ABSTRACT

The “common but differentiated responsibility” of developed and developing countries to mitigate climate change is a core principle of international climate politics—but there is disagreement about what this “differentiated responsibility” amounts to. We investigate how newspapers in developed countries (Australia, Germany, United States) and emerging economies (Brazil, India) covered this debate during the UN climate summits in 2004, 2009, and 2014. Newspapers in both types of countries attributed more responsibility to developed than to developing countries. In line with social identity theory, however, media in developed countries attributed less causal responsibility (blame) to other developed countries than media in emerging economies. The latter countries’ media, in turn, attributed less responsibility to other developing countries than media in developed countries. At the same time, in line with the “differentiated responsibility”, media in developed countries attributed more responsibility to their own countries than media in emerging economies.     

碳循环、气候变化与金融风险

气候变化会导致极端天气事件增多、经济损失增加,进而会影响金融稳定,需要相关部门及时评估和应对。因此,构建合理的气候金融分析框架,分析气候变化影响金融变量的传导路径,并制定针对性应对措施,具有重要的理论和现实意义。该研究在金融加速器框架下构建了一个包含碳循环、气候变化因素以及多个经济主体的DSGE模型,模拟了气候变化对产出、资产价格、企业违约率以及信贷总量等变量的影响。研究结果显示：①气候变化冲击减少了产出,降低了资本价格和资本收益率,增加了外部融资溢价水平,推高了企业杠杆率和信贷违约率,进而引起信贷紧缩,投资减少。②碳强度冲击增加了产出,提高了资本价格和资本收益率,减少了外部融资溢价水平,降低企业杠杆率和企业信贷违约率,进而引起信贷扩张,投资增加。③减排强度冲击主要通过成本驱动影响宏观经济。短期内经济受减排冲击的负向影响较大,长期地看,随着产出的快速恢复,投资和信贷需求增加,从而促进了经济增长。据此建议：①及时准确地评估气候变化风险在金融体系中的规模,防范非传统的系统性风险对金融市场产生的影响。②积极推动绿色低碳技术的快速发展,促进减污降碳与增加产出的双赢成效。③完善气候变化经济模型分析框架,提升气候变化经济分析框架的现实解释力和理论指导作用。     

中国水资源管理适应气候变化的研究综述

以全球变暖为特征的气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的最重要议题之一。气候变化对水资源管理的影响是具有重要学术价值的新兴研究方向,目前的重点研究领域主要包括:气候变化背景下水资源综合管理方式与集成研究,气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,中国面临的水资源均衡性管理,公众参与水资源适应性管理的政策制定,对减缓措施与水资源可持续发展的认识。主要的研究方法包括:适应气候变化的定性分析方法(多尺度适应综合分析方法)、成本效益分析方法等。适应性管理是目前应对气候变化伴随的不确定性问题的有效策略,未来应在分析中国各流域水资源不确定性问题的基础上,建立气候变化情景下适应气候变化的水资源适应性管理体制机制。     

Visual Climate Change Communication: From Iconography to Locally Framed 3D Visualization

Climate change is an urgent problem with implications registered not only globally, but also on national and local scales. It is a particularly challenging case of environmental communication because its main cause, greenhouse gas emissions, is invisible. The predominant approach of making climate change visible is the use of iconic, often affective, imagery. Literature on the iconography of climate change shows that global iconic motifs, such as polar bears, have contributed to a public perception of the problem as spatially and temporally remote. This paper proposes an alternative approach to global climate change icons by focusing on recognizable representations of local impacts within an interactive game environment. This approach was implemented and tested in a research project based on the municipality of Delta, British Columbia. A major outcome of the research is Future Delta, an interactive educational game featuring 3D visualizations and simulation tools for climate change adaptation and mitigation future scenarios. The empirical evaluation is based on quantitative pre/post-game play questionnaires with 18 students and 10 qualitative expert interviews. The findings support the assumption that interactive 3D imagery is effective in communicating climate change. The quantitative post-questionnaires particularly highlight a shift in support of more local responsibility.