Sensitivity analysis as a tool for systematic reductions in greenhouse gas inventory uncertainties

A greenhouse gas emission inventory consists of a large number of input parameters, many of which have high uncertainties. The Kyoto protocol will require accurate emission data. It is, consequently, important to reduce the inventory uncertainty by improving the input parameters and methodologies in a cost-efficient manner. A key parameter is defined as one that has significant effect on the total emissions or trend and their uncertainty. Key parameters may be ranked according to their contribution to total emissions and trend uncertainty. Quantitative uncertainty estimates of emissions are not available in many countries. In order to evaluate key parameters in such inventories a simplified approach based on thresholds is proposed. Various methods of sensitivity analysis have been applied to Norwegian inventory data. The simplified threshold approach gives insight into the inventory and identifies the key parameters. More sophisticated methods of sensitivity analysis assessments are, however, useful in order to seek specific improvements. The key parameters for determination of total emissions are the large and uncertain sources. Smaller emission sources may be key parameters for the trend determination if their source level is strongly increasing or decreasing.     

Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

In recent years, evaluating the robustness of environmental models results has become essential in order to effectively support decision makers to define suitable emission control strategies. This evaluation is performed in literature through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Therefore, the application of such methodologies to air quality Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is extremely challenging. In fact, in this case uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be assessed not only for each single component of the system, but also for the overall IAM. In the paper, an attempt is made to extend and systematize the information available on uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, at first considering environmental models in general, and then focusing on air quality IAMs. The study aims to offer a tentative framework addressed to modelers and decision makers in the implementation of IAM and evaluation of its results. The framework has been tested on Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The results show how the uncertainty on Drivers of emissions propagates on the whole modelling chain characterizing an integrated assessment study.     

Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

A guide for compiling inventories in hybrid life-cycle assessments: some Australian results

Hybrid life-cycle assessment employing input–output analysis has advantages over conventional methods. In the inventory phase of a hybrid assessment, the data collection and the boundary selection can be tailored by using structural path analysis. This technique was applied to recent Australian data in order to determine environmentally important input paths in terms of energy consumption, land disturbance, water use, and emissions of greenhouse gases, NO_x, and SO₂, for all Australian industry sectors. Due to the complexity of inter-industrial transactions, up to third-order paths can be top-ranking. The identification of such paths is considerably more labour-intensive in conventional life-cycle assessments.     

Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.     

湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析

以我国典型的大型浅水湖泊太湖为研究区域,采用国内外常用的环境流体动力学模型(EFDC),结合拉丁超立方取样(LHS)方法,研究湖泊水动力模型中4个重要的外部输入条件,即3个边界输入条件(出入湖流量、风速、风向)和1个初始输入条件(初始水位),对模型水动力模拟结果(水位、水龄以及流场)的影响与贡献.结果表明,初始水位的设定对模拟全湖水位和水龄产生决定性影响,不确定性的贡献率分别达到85.73%和66.125%,对垂向平均流速影响的贡献率只有3%;风速对表面流速模拟结果影响较大,贡献率达到58.70%,而对水位和水龄的贡献率分别为5.25%和3.00%.在垂向上,各层流速受外部输入条件不确定性的影响规律相似,贡献率排序为风速(55%~60%)>风向(10%~15%)>初始水位≈出入湖流量(1%~5%).因此在模拟大型浅水湖泊水动力过程时,可以根据不同的输出目标能够有针对性地提高外部输入条件的准确度,为提高模型精确度提供有效信息.     

湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析

以我国典型的大型浅水湖泊太湖为研究区域,采用国内外常用的环境流体动力学模型(EFDC),结合拉丁超立方取样(LHS)方法,研究湖泊水动力模型中4个重要的外部输入条件,即3个边界输入条件(出入湖流量、风速、风向)和1个初始输入条件(初始水位),对模型水动力模拟结果(水位、水龄以及流场)的影响与贡献.结果表明,初始水位的设定对模拟全湖水位和水龄产生决定性影响,不确定性的贡献率分别达到85.73%和66.125%,对垂向平均流速影响的贡献率只有3%;风速对表面流速模拟结果影响较大,贡献率达到58.70%,而对水位和水龄的贡献率分别为5.25%和3.00%.在垂向上,各层流速受外部输入条件不确定性的影响规律相似,贡献率排序为风速(55%~60%)>风向(10%~15%)>初始水位≈出入湖流量(1%~5%).因此在模拟大型浅水湖泊水动力过程时,可以根据不同的输出目标能够有针对性地提高外部输入条件的准确度,为提高模型精确度提供有效信息.     

Implementing environmental with other standardized management systems: Scope,sequence, time and integration

The aim of this article is to analyze how the implementation of the environmental management system (EMS) in accordance with the ISO 14001: 2004 standard has been carried out in organizations having more than one standardized Management System (MSs). In particular, four implementation aspects will be discussed, namely the different management system standards (MSSs) used for registration, for example ISO 14001, ISO 9001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 27001 and SA 8000, the order in which they were implemented, the time required for each implementation, as well as the scope of integration of these MSSs into a single Integrated Management System (IMS).In order to do so, some of the results of a survey carried out in 176 organizations registered to, at a minimum, both ISO 14001: 2004 and ISO 9001: 2000 standards for environmental and quality management, respectively, are presented. As one of the few existing empirical studies regarding the integration of multiple MSs, this research reveals the importance of the different possibilities which organizations can opt for when considering EMS implementation. For example, while most respondents implemented ISO 9001 before ISO 14001, others did so simultaneously or even applied ISO 14001 first. Furthermore, although a large majority of organizations integrated their EMS with additional standardized MSs, a small percentage did not. Apart from illustrating the survey outcomes, the article contains a detailed case analysis of four specific organizations with high environmental awareness that have implemented quality and other standardized MSs.     

Comparative analysis of diffusion of the ISO 14001 standard by sector of activity

In recent years there have been many approaches to understand the cross-country diffusion rate of the most common environmental management standards issued by the International Organization for Standardization, the ISO 14000 series, due to their spectacular growth around the world, even though a certain saturation has been detected in some countries. However, few studies have shed light on the diffusion process of these standards across sectors of activity. Therefore, the present paper examines whether there are patterns of diffusion of the ISO 14001 standard that are singular at specific sectors of economic activity. The analysis was carried out using a logistic curve that fits quite well to explain the nature of this growth, and instability and concentration indexes were calculated to analyze the evolution of the rankings of the sectors attending the number of certifications ISO 14001. It concludes that the diffusion among sectors is quite homogeneous: all sectors have experienced similar behavior. Moreover, the article proposes some suggestions for future research.     

产品碳足迹评价中不确定度与敏感度相结合的数据质量分析

产品碳足迹评价中,数据种类、来源、获取途径和量化方法的选择不同将直接影响到评价结果的可靠与否.本文建立了结合敏感度和DQI-Monte Carlo不确定度分析的产品碳足迹评价数据质量分析模型.首先通过敏感度分析识别出产品碳足迹评价中的主要数据,再采用DQI-Monte Carlo不确定度分析方法对主要数据进行数据质量判定,甄选出影响评价结果可靠性的关键数据,并由此有针对性地提出数据质量改进意见,从而有效地优化数据收集方案,减少碳足迹评价结果的不确定度.建立的方法应用于我国某塑料软包装印刷企业的印刷前阶段碳足迹评价中.     

中国人为源VOC排放清单不确定性研究

针对采用"排放因子法"构建的中国人为源VOC排放清单,开展了不确定性研究工作.基于排放清单输入信息的准确性和可靠性,构建了活动水平和排放因子的不确定度评估系统,获得了清单输入信息概率密度分布函数.利用Monte Carlo模型将输入信息的不确定度传递到清单的输出值,计算了2005年我国人为源VOC排放概率密度分布函数....     

基于全局敏感性分析方法的WASP模型不确定性分析

为了定量讨论WASP(The water quality analysis simulation program,水质分析模拟程序)模型中各参数对模拟结果的影响及其不确定性,本文在Simulink环境下对模型进行重组,利用Sobol方法,对影响DO、CBOD、NH3-N、NO3--N等4项输出的各参数敏感性进行了研究,重点讨论了输入条件如时空变化对参数敏感性的影响.结果表明:Sobol全局敏感性分析方法能够有效地筛选出WASP模型中对DO、CBOD、NH3-N、NO3-变化模拟较为敏感的参数,在实现模型参数“本土化”中具有较大的应用潜力;对比总敏感性与一阶敏感性指数之间的差异, WASP模型当中的若干参数(如GP1、PNH3、anc等)耦合性较强,不宜使用一次一个变量法对这些变量进行敏感性分析;在参数敏感性变化方面,即使对于同一条河流,WASP的参数敏感性指数会因边界条件的时空变化而发生改变.敏感性受空间变化的影响不大,但受时间(季节)变化的影响显著;输入变量随时间的变化,会引起模型不确定性在各季节上的较大的差异;WASP模型当中存在明显的“异参同效”作用,仅靠传统方法进行全局寻优率定,并不能体现水体各组分之间相互转化的过程,还需要结合实验对关键参数进行率定.     

低中放处置场环境评价参数灵敏度分析

选取90Sr、239Pu和14C为代表核素,采用单参数变分法对某低中水平放射性固体废物处置场环境影响评价中与核素迁移相关的主要评价参数开展了参数灵敏度分析.分析结果表明:对于低中放处置场而言,环境影响评价模式中主要评价参数的选择对最终评价结果的影响很大,因此在环境影响评价中开展不确定度及敏感度分析是必要的.     

SPARROW模型及其应用研究进展

SPARROW模型是由美国地质调查局开发的一个基于流域空间属性的估算污染物负荷、浓度等的非线性回归模型。由于模型通过质量守恒来约束污染物的传输,并以统计学的方法实现变量参数的校准,因而SPARROW模型在量化污染物的传输过程中具有足够高的精确度与合理性。总体来看,SPARROW模型在流域污染源及环境因子分析、水质评估与模拟、监测管理优化等方面发挥出了重要作用,并被广泛地应用于国内外的不同流域。针对SPARROW模型在不确定性分析中存在的自相关问题,贝叶斯分析的引入优化了模型在不确定性方面的评估。目前,SPARROW模型在国内流域中以估算总氮、总磷、COD等污染物负荷为主要应用。随着国内相关数据的积累以及共享程度的提高,其应用范围将会愈加广泛。     

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission inventories — evaluation,comparability and implications

This paper reviews quantitative assessments of uncertainty in level and trend in national greenhouse gas inventories. The reported uncertainty in the total emissions of high-quality greenhouse gas inventories ranges from ±5–20% in studies of five industrialised countries. The differences in uncertainty are, in particular, due to different subjective assessment of the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils. The fraction of CO₂ in the inventory has little effect on the uncertainty. The uncertainties in trends are about ±4–5 percentage points for those countries that have made estimates. High uncertainties of emission levels indicate potential for improvements and, consequently, recalculations. Recalculations will reduce uncertainty, but might also cause practical problems. A high uncertainty in the emission level for large emission sources may be an obstacle for assessing cost-effective reduction strategies as well as for designing effective systems of emission trading. This could imply that the more uncertain emission sources should be excluded from emission trading. Alternatively, subjective uncertainty estimates may be expressed in terms of an economic risk of recalculation. The latter system may allow a market-based encouragement to reduce emission uncertainty. Reductions in uncertainties are anticipated in the future. However, it will be extremely difficult to reduce the trend uncertainty. Trend uncertainties may consequently remain high compared with the emission reduction targets in the Kyoto protocol.     

多孔介质中污染物运移空间变异最优估计

论述了空间变异性分析的原理和方法,着重阐述不同估值方法在多孔介质污染物运移空间变异分析中的应用.实践表明,地质统计学方法能够弥补经典概率统计方法在评价区域化变量空间变异性方面的不足,从而对多孔介质中污染物运移的空间变异性做出更切合实际的分析与评价.     

应用淡水生物毒性数据推导海水水质基准的可行性及适用性初探

在海洋环境风险评价及环境标准与基准的制定中,由于海水生物毒性数据的欠缺,通常引入淡水数据加以补充,以此推导海水的预测无效应浓度(PNEC),但该方法所推导PNEC的"失真"程度目前尚未完全清晰。本研究选取了Pb、Cd、马拉硫磷和狄氏剂四种典型化合物,应用SSD模型方法比较分析了分别基于淡水生物和海水生物以及二者一并使用推导的PNEC值之间的差异性和相关性。结果发现:淡水生物与海水生物对各化合物响应的敏感性具有一定的差异。对于重金属,淡水物种可能对其胁迫更具敏感性,将淡水数据与海水数据一并使用所获得PNEC可有效的保护海洋生物;对于有机磷和有机氯农药,海水生物通常更具敏感性,淡水数据的介入和应用可能会对部分海洋生物造成部分"欠保护"现象,但总体上,淡水HC5与海水HC5二者相差不大,可通过适当的安全因子加以校正。     

基于控制图法的苯测量不确定度评定

本文采用top—down技术之控制图法进行气相色谱法测定苯的不确定度评定。该方法应用实验室长期积累的质控数据,利用A—D统计法检验质控数据的随机性和独立性,从而建立移动极差控制图,评定测量不确定度。相比传统的不确定度评定方法（ISO／IECGUM）步骤简单,避免了不确定度分量遗漏、重复或难以量化的问题。使监测数据更加客观可信。     

Environmental aspects when manufacturing products mainly out of metals and/or polymers

The most fundamental aspect in the ISO 14001 standard Environmental management systems—Specification with guidance for use is to find out ways by which an organisation influences environment to a significant degree. This paper examines environmental data from companies manufacturing products mainly from metals and/or polymers. The data were collected in a uniform way by use of special guidelines. Weighting or valuation methods often used in life cycle assessments were used to quantitatively compare and rank environmental aspects. The study results suggest that, in general, the largest environmental impact in the investigated manufacturing sub-sector can be associated with product use and/or disposal phases. This in turn shows a need for more attention on environmental work on the design for environment than what the ISO 14001 standard requires. It is further suggested that weighting or valuation methods can aid in determining the significance of environmental impacts and aspects in the context of ISO 14001.