Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

WATER QUALITY AND POLLUTION — SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND,NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: The South Fork of Long Island, New York is an area which relies entirely on ground water for water supply. Most of the water which is pumped is artifically recharged, without treatment, via cesspools. The natural quality of the ground water is very high. Some areas show increasing nitrate in the ground water. This comes from both cesspools and agricultural fertilizer. Saline water intrusion is a potential problem in coastal areas. High ammonia in surface ponds may result in eutrophication.     

WATER CHEMISTRY OF NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS STRIP MINE AND LIVESTOCK WATER IMPOUNDMENTS1

The water from 34 strip mine and 9 livestock water impoundments on the Northern Great Plains was analyzed. In all areas the water was classified as slightly brackish or saline. The dominant ion sequence for the study ponds was Na>Ca>Mg>K and SO₄HCO₃CO₃Cl, which differs from most freshwater by the transposition of Na and SO₄. Even though mean concentrations of total filterable residue were consistently greater in strip mine ponds, statistically significant differences were not found at the p ≤ 0.05 level between strip ponds and livestock ponds. The macronutrients of nitrogen and phosphorus found in the ponds were neither limiting to primary productivity nor excessive for fresh water. Many ponds contain turbid water. Turbidity restricts light penetration and limits photosynthesis besides making the ponds visually unattractive. The source of water for the pond, whether surface runoff or groundwater, seems to have important bearing on turbidity. The most appropriate use of these strip mine ponds is for waterfowl, warm-water fisheries, and other wildlife associated with prairie wetlands. However, even these uses are jeopardized by detrimental concentrations of trace elements in the water (Anderson and Hawkes, 1984).     

Habitat and Biodiversity of On-Farm Water Storages: A Case Study in Southeast Queensland, Australia

On-farm water storages (locally known as farm dams or farm ponds) are an important part of many agricultural landscapes, as they provide a reliable source of water for irrigation and stock. Although these waterbodies are artificially constructed and morphologically simple, there is increasing interest in their potential role as habitat for native flora and fauna. In this article, we present results from a case study which examined the habitat characteristics (such as water physical and chemical parameters, benthic metabolism, and macrophyte cover) and the macrophyte and macroinvertebrate biodiversity of eight farm ponds on four properties in the Stanley Catchment, Southeast Queensland, Australia. Each landowner was interviewed to allow a comparison of the management of the ponds with measured habitat and biodiversity characteristics, and to understand landowners’ motivations in making farm pond management decisions. The physical and chemical water characteristics of the study ponds were comparable to the limited number of Australian farm ponds described in published literature. Littoral zones supported forty-five macroinvertebrate families, with most belonging to the orders Hemiptera, Coleoptera, Odonata, and Diptera. Invertebrate community composition was strongly influenced by littoral zone macrophyte structure, with significant differences between ponds with high macrophyte cover compared to those with bare littoral zones. The importance of littoral zone macrophytes was also suggested by a significant positive relationship between invertebrate taxonomic richness and macrophyte cover. The landowners in this study demonstrated sound ecological knowledge of their farm ponds, but many had not previously acknowledged them as having high habitat value for native flora and fauna. If managed for aquatic organisms as well as reliable water sources, these artificial habitats may help to maintain regional biodiversity, particularly given the large number of farm ponds across the landscape.     

ARSENIC POISONING IN BANGLADESH: A GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Drinking of arsenic‐contaminated tubewell water has become a serious health threat in Bangladesh. Arsenic contaminated tubewells are believed to be responsible for poisoning nearly two‐thirds of this country's population. If proper actions are not taken immediately, many people in Bangladesh will die from arsenic poisoning in just a few years. Causes and consequences of arsenic poisoning, the extent of area affected by it, and local knowledge and beliefs about the arsenic problem — including solutions and international responses to the problem — are analyzed. Although no one knows precisely how the arsenic is released into the ground water, several contradictory theories exist to account for its release. Initial symptoms of the poisoning consist of a dryness and throat constriction, difficulty in swallowing, and acute epigastric pain. Long‐term exposure leads to skin, lung, or bladder cancer. Both government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh, foreign governments, and international agencies are now involved in mitigating the effects of the arsenic poisoning, as well as developing cost‐effective remedial measures that are affordable by the rural people.     

Diversion of the Ganges Water at Farakka and Its Effects on Salinity in Bangladesh

/ The Ganges River supplies water to the southwest region of Bangladesh mainly through one of its distributaries-the Gorai River. India commissioned a barrage on the Ganges River at Farakka in April 1975 to divert water and make the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River navigable. The diversion has reduced the dry season discharge of the Ganges and Gorai rivers in Bangladesh. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in the dry season discharge of these rivers are significant. Reduced discharge in the Gorai River has induced accelerated sedimentation and increased salinity in the southwest region of Bangladesh. Empirical analyses demonstrate the relationship between discharge in the Gorai River and salinity. Analyses also determine the requirement of flow for the Ganges and Gorai rivers to keep salinity at threshold limits. Increased salinity has caused negative effects on agriculture, forestry, industry, and drinking water in the southwest region of Bangladesh.KEY WORDS: Bangladesh; Ganges River; Gorai River; Farakka diversion; Salinity     

饮用水中砷去除技术综述

自从1996年孟加拉国和印度报道慢性砷中毒事件以来,饮用水砷污染和砷中毒问题就受到全世界的关注。如何解决这一难题,研究人员进行了大量研究。本文综述了饮用水中砷的去除方法,包括混凝／沉淀、吸附、离子交换技术等,对各种除砷技术进行了总结和比较。     

The Importance of Supratidal Habitats for Wintering Shorebirds and the Potential Impacts of Shrimp Aquaculture

Intensive black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) aquaculture ponds have replaced significant areas of coastal wetlands throughout tropical Asia. Few studies have assessed potential impacts on avian foraging habitats. At Khao Sam Roi Yod National Park, Thailand, seminatural wetlands have been converted to either shrimp ponds or to salinization ponds that provide saline water for shrimp aquaculture. Although shorebirds cannot feed in aquaculture ponds, hypersaline ponds can provide productive foraging areas. Thus, the overall impact of the shrimp industry on shorebirds depends partly on the relative quality of the salt ponds compared to seminatural wetlands. In this study, we examined wintering shorebird use of tidal (N = 5 sites) and supratidal areas (four wetland sites, four salt pond sites) and compared the shorebird community (14 species), prey availability, profitability, and disturbance rates between wetlands and salt ponds. Two shorebird species fed in higher densities in wetlands, whereas seven species were more abundant in salt ponds. Large juvenile fish and dragonfly larvae were more abundant in wetlands, whereas there were more small Chironomid midge and fly larvae in salt ponds. We conclude that salt ponds might provide higher-quality foraging habitats compared to wetlands for small shorebirds species because of the abundance of small larvae. However, the shrimp aquaculture industry reduces habitat availability for shorebirds feeding on larger prey. This study demonstrates a comprehensive, multispecies approach to assess the impacts of a large-scale change in coastal habitats for wintering shorebirds.     

Impoundment Productivity in the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, Alaska: Implications for Waterbirds

a ), and nutrient availability (phosphorus and nitrogen). High variability in these limnological characteristics, particularly among impoundments, obscured potential differences between impoundments and ponds. No significant differences were found in chlorophyll or nutrient concentrations, and in only two cases were there differences in invertebrate production: gastropods were significantly more abundant in impoundments than in ponds in June, and trichopterans were significantly more abundant in impoundments than in ponds in July. For comparisons within impoundments and ponds, there were significant differences in invertebrate abundance between habitats and between wetland types. For example, plecopterans, trichopterans, and gastropods (all taxa combined) were consistently more abundant in shallow–Arctophila impoundments and ponds than in shallow–Carex impoundments and ponds. Thus, ponds and impoundments may differ significantly in invertebrate production, but we lack information on the amount of different habitat types (i.e., center versus emergent vegetation, Carex versus Arctophila) used by these taxa within each water body type. It is a reasonable speculation, based on results of this study, that impoundments and ponds may have similar value as feeding habitat for invertebrate-eating waterbirds. Thus the presence of impoundments may be consistent with waterbird management goals on the Arctic Coastal Plain.     

Women's Awareness of and Attitudes Towards the Flood Action Plan (FAP) of Bangladesh: A Comparative Study

/ Bangladesh has recently tested a program called the Flood Action Plan (FAP) to solve its chronic flood problem. The FAP envisages that all the major rivers of Bangladesh will eventually be embanked on both sides in order to prevent flooding. This paper reports on the responses of rural women to the possible impacts of the proposed embankment projects as outlined in the FAP. A further attempt is also made to compare their responses with the results of an earlier survey conducted among male respondents. Data for this study were collected from two rural areas of Bangladesh. It shows that almost all respondents had heard about the proposed construction and that they overwhelmingly support the embankment project of the FAP. Respondents are also aware of both positive and negative impacts of embankment construction. Similar findings were also reported by a previous study dealing with male responses to the embankment project. KEY WORDS: Flood Action Plan; Bangladesh; Women     

Impact of water control projects on fisheries resources in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a very flat delta built up by the Ganges—Brahmaputra—Meghna/Barak river systems. Because of its geographical location, floods cause huge destruction of lives and properties almost every year. Water control programs have been undertaken to enhance development through mitigating the threat of disasters. This structural approach to flood hazard has severely affected floodplain fisheries that supply the major share of protein to rural Bangladesh, as exemplified by the Chandpur Irrigation Project. Although the regulated environment of the Chandpur project has become favorable for closed-water cultured fish farming, the natural open-water fishery loss has been substantial. Results from research show that fish yields were better under preproject conditions. Under project conditions per capita fish consumption has dropped significantly, and the price of fish has risen beyond the means of the poor people, so that fish protein in the diet of poor people is gradually declining. Bangladesh is planning to expand water control facilities to the remaining flood-prone areas in the next 15–20 years. This will cause further loss of floodplain fisheries. If prices for closed-water fish remain beyond the buying power of the poor, alternative sources of cheap protein will be required.     

IMPROVING WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION THROUGH DEMAND-ORIENTED WATER POLICY1

ABSTRACT. In the arid and semi-arid regions of the Western United States the water problem is generally perceived as one of “inadequate” supply. This conception of the problem engenders supply-oriented water policy, or policy focusing exclusively upon a single class of solutions–the various schemes for augmenting an area's water supply. In a more complete or balanced conceptualization, the water problem is viewed as one of “inadequate” supply and/or “excessive” demand. When the water problem is so conceived, water policy is broadened to include demand-oriented water policy, or policy aimed at reducing the quantity of water demanded in an area. The purpose of this paper is to describe and explain demand-oriented water policy. Basically it consists of changing the set of commodities produced by the economy, cutting back and/or eliminating goods requiring large quantities of water in their production and introducing and/or expanding goods which require little water. This paper also reports briefly on research undertaken to test demand-oriented policy in Arizona. Results indicate that such a policy can be extremely efficacious in solving a region's water problem.     

Zonal management of arsenic contaminated ground water in Northwestern Bangladesh

This paper used ordinary kriging to spatially map arsenic contamination in shallow aquifers of Northwestern Bangladesh (total area  35,000 km²). The Northwestern region was selected because it represents a relatively safer source of large-scale and affordable water supply for the rest of Bangladesh currently faced with extensive arsenic contamination in drinking water (such as the Southern regions). Hence, the work appropriately explored sustainability issues by building upon a previously published study (Hossain et al., 2007; Water Resources Management, vol. 21: 1245–1261) where a more general nation-wide assessment afforded by kriging was identified. The arsenic database for reference comprised the nation-wide survey (of 3534 drinking wells) completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) of Bangladesh. Randomly sampled networks of zones from this reference database were used to develop an empirical variogram and develop maps of zonal arsenic concentration for the Northwestern region. The remaining non-sampled zones from the reference database were used to assess the accuracy of the kriged maps. Two additional criteria were explored: (1) the ability of geostatistical interpolators such as kriging to extrapolate information on spatial structure of arsenic contamination beyond small-scale exploratory domains; (2) the impact of a priori knowledge of anisotropic variability on the effectiveness of geostatistically based management. On the average, the kriging method was found to have a 90% probability of successful prediction of safe zones according to the WHO safe limit of 10 ppb while for the Bangladesh safe limit of 50 ppb, the safe zone prediction probability was 97%. Compared to the previous study by Hossain et al. (2007) over the rest of the contaminated country side, the probability of successful detection of safe zones in the Northwest is observed to be about 25% higher. An a priori knowledge of anisotropy was found to have inconclusive impact on the effectiveness of kriging. It was, however, hypothesized that a preferential sampling strategy that honored anisotropy could be necessary to reach a more definitive conclusion in regards to this issue.     

Rice bran: A prospective resource for biodiesel production in Bangladesh

The increasing demand of renewable energy sources has pressed the need to search for biofuels. The world is not only thrusting for potential sources of biofuels but also surveilling not to hamper the food supply, particularly in the Third World countries, such as Bangladesh. Rice bran oil is a prominent source of biofuels. Rice, the main cereal in Bangladesh, is cultivated all the year round. Rice hull containing bran is mostly wasted and merely used as feedstock for cattle and for cooking purposes. This study considered rice bran as a prospective source of biodiesel in Bangladesh. The properties of oil collected from rice bran were investigated to ensure the production of biodiesel by transesterification. An economic analysis relative to Bangladesh was conducted, and the production rate of biodiesel under different percentage of catalyst was investigated.     

Price Determination and Efficiency in the Market for South Platte Basin Ditch Company Shares

Water scarcity presents an obstacle to economic development in the western United States. Water rights markets help improve water allocation, allowing states to derive the highest economic benefit from available resources, and supporting new uses and economic development. However, the implicit (marginal) prices of water rights attributes are uncertain. To address this problem, we apply econometric analysis to a unique dataset to estimate the implicit values that market participants place on the attributes of shares of ditch company water rights in Colorado's South Platte River Basin. Our analysis demonstrates that ditch company share buyers value proximity of water diversion, reliability of water deliveries, and temporal flexibility of water use. To assess reliability we introduce the use of the coefficient of variation to capture, in one variable, the randomness of supply from ditch company shares that are not a single water right, but a portfolio of rights with different appropriation dates. Finally, we test and correct for spatial autocorrelation for the first time in a study of water market prices.     

Understanding the Value of Local Ecological Knowledge and Practices for Habitat Restoration in Human-Altered Floodplain Systems: A Case from Bangladesh

Worldwide there is a declining trend in natural fish catch (FAO, The state of world fisheries and aquaculture. , 2002) and Bangladesh is no exception. The vast inland fisheries of Bangladesh have been declining over the years, largely a result of human alteration of the aquatic habitats arising from human interventions in the floodplain systems such as the establishment of water control structures which favor agricultural production but reduce fish habitats. It can be assumed that conventional management measures are not adequate to conserve natural fisheries and exploring alternative knowledge systems to complement existing management is warranted. This paper focuses on local ecological knowledge and several other local practices held by fishers engaging directly with floodplain ecosystems. These knowledge systems and practices may be valuable tools for understanding ecosystems processes and related changes and developing local level responses to avert negative consequences of such changes. This may help in devising alternatives to ecosystem management and the conservation of floodplain fish habitats of Bangladesh and elsewhere in the world. This study was conducted in a natural depression (locally called beel) and its surrounding floodplain system located in north central Bangladesh which has become highly degraded. The results of the study indicate that the fishers and local users of the floodplain ecosystems are rich in local ecological knowledge concerning the hydrology of the floodplains and small lakes, the habitat preferences of fish, the role of agricultural crops on fish habitats, and the impact of habitat human interventions in aquatic ecosystems. Given the apparent inadequacy of the present management regime, this article argues for an inclusion of local knowledge and practices into habitat management as a more holistic approach to floodplain habitat restoration and conservation that encourages multi-level cooperation and which builds on diversified knowledge systems.     

COALBED METHANE PRODUCT WATER CHEMISTRY IN THREE WYOMING WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: The Powder River Basin in Wyoming has become one of the most active areas of coalbed methane (CBM) development in the western United States. Extraction of methane from coalbeds requires pumping of aquifer water, which is called product water. Two to ten extraction wells are manifolded into one discharge point and product water is released into nearby unlined holding ponds. The objective of this study was to evaluate the chemistry, salinity, and sodicity of CBM product water at discharge points and associated holding ponds as a function of watershed. The product water samples from the discharge points and associated holding ponds were collected from the Cheyenne River (CHR), Belle Fourche River (BFR), and Little Powder River (LPR) watersheds during the summers of 1999 and 2000. These samples were analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity, sodium (Na), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), sulfate (SO₄^2‐), and chloride (C^1‐). From the chemical data, practical sodium adsorption ratio (SARp) and true sodium adsorption ratio (SARt) were calculated for the CBM discharge water and pond water. The pH, EC, TDS, alkalinity, Na, Ca, Mg, K, SARp, and SARt of CBM discharge water increased significantly moving north from the CHR watershed to the LPR watershed. CBM discharge water in associated holding ponds showed significant increases in EC, TDS, alkalinity, Na, K, SARp, and SARt moving north from the CHR to the LPR watershed. Within watersheds, the only significant change was an increase in pH from 7.21 to 8.26 between discharge points and holding ponds in the LPR watershed. However, the LPR and BFR exhibited larger changes in mean chemistry values in pH, salinity (EC, TDS), and sodicity (SAR) between CBM product water discharges and associated holding ponds than the CHR watershed. For instance, the mean EC and TDS of CBM product water in LPR increased from 1.93 to 2.09 dS/m, and froml,232 to 1,336 mg/L, respectively, between discharge and pond waters. The CHR exhibited no change in EC, TDS, Na, or SAR between discharge water and pond water. Also, while not statistically significant, mean alkalinity of CBM product water in BFR and LPR watersheds decreased from 9.81 to 8.01 meq/L and from 19.87 to 18.14 meq/L, respectively, between discharge and pond waters. The results of this study suggest that release of CBM product water onto the rangelands of BFR and LPR watersheds may precipitate calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) in soils, which in turn may decrease infiltration and increase runoff and erosion. Thus, use of CBM product water for irrigation in LPR and BFR watersheds may require careful planning based on water pH, EC, alkalinity, Na, and SAR, as well as local soil physical and chemical properties.     

Flood problems in Bangladesh: Is there an indigenous solution?

Bangladesh, situated on the delta of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna rivers, experiences two distinct types of inundations: (a) river floods resulting from excessive runoff contributed by monsoon precipitation and (b) coastal floods induced by storm surges of tropical cyclones. The river floods are normal annual events and human settlements and agricultural practices have adapted admirably well to their regimes. Abnormal floods that occur once in every few years cause serious damage to crops and properties. To minimize flood losses, a number of modern engineering projects have been constructed within Bangladesh. However, the successful solution of the problem would probably require some international collaboration for basinwide unified systems planning, since large parts of the drainage basins of Bangladesh lie beyond its borders. In the absence of such collaboration, internal resources should be utilized for the construction of smaller public projects, such aspolders, and for encouraging and reinforcing various types of indigenous adjustments to floods. There are very few successful indigenous adjustments to coastal floods. Most of the structural solutions, such as community shelters and higher embankments, are expensive public projects that are probably beyond the means of the internal resources of the country.     

Value of arsenic-free drinking water to rural households in Bangladesh

Using contingent valuation survey data for about 2700 households in rural Bangladesh, and applying a multinomial logit model, the paper estimates the value of arsenic-free drinking water to the rural people. The estimates indicate that the rural people in arsenic-affected areas of Bangladesh place a low value on arsenic-free drinking water. It is about 10-14 percent of the amount they are willing to pay for piped water and only about 0.2-0.3 percent of the average household income. The implication of the result is that robust but costly arsenic reduction technologies such as activated alumina technology may find little social acceptance, unless heavily subsidized.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.