Applications of Anthropogenic Lead ArchaeoStratigraphy (ALAS Model) to Hydrocarbon Remediation

A model, which employs the use of high precision stable lead isotopic analyses, has been developed to estimate the age of hydrocarbon releases. The ALAS Model (Anthropogenic Lead ArchaeoStratigraphy) is based on calibrated, systematic increases in lead isotope ratios of gasolines caused by shifts in sources of lead ores used by the U.S. lead industry, including manufacturers of alkylleads, to more radiogenic Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposits. Acquisition of high quality samples (free product, gasoline-impacted soil and groundwater) of known age and subsequent analyses of the hydrocarbon component by high precision lead isotopic analyses by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) have produced the ALAS Model calibration curve. Age uncertainties range from - 1 to 2 years for gasoline releases which occurred between 1965 and 1990, the major era of leaded gasoline usage. Analytical methods required to measure lead isotope ratios on ~5 nanograms of lead with precisions and accuracy of < - 0.1% (2 SEM ) are discussed in detail. Published lead isotopic measurements of gasoline-derived anthropogenic lead of samples throughout the United States are used to demonstrate the wide geographic range over which the ALAS Model may be applied. Two representative case studies involving an early 1970s free product release in California and the discrimination of a 1970s from modern unleaded gasoline release in Florida demonstrate the use of the model on single and multiple hydrocarbon releases, respectively, in different geographic regions of the United States. A third investigation focuses on the use of lead isotopes to correlate dissolved phase hydrocarbons with their source, in this case, unleaded (aka low lead) gasoline releases in New Jersey. Dissolved phase hydrocarbons (BTEX/MTBE) are shown to carry the lead isotopic signature of the unleaded gasoline into groundwater, allowing the specific source of the release to be identified. Investigations of lead isotopes as tracers of MTBE in groundwater are ongoing. However, both laboratory and field data indicate MTBE carries the lead isotopic signature of its unleaded gasoline source into groundwater, demonstrating the potential of the lead isotopic system as a discriminant of MTBE sources. Although developed to estimate the age of leaded gasoline releases, the ALAS Model has been successfully applied in studies requiring age dating of jet-A, diesel, kerosene, motor oil, and heating oil. These petroleum distillates are suspected of accidentally acquiring small, yet significant quantities of alkylleads during refining, allowing accurate ALAS Model ages to be determined. When lead levels in these petroleum distillates are within their normal range, typically tens to hundreds of ppb lead, it is possible to use lead isotopic ratios to correlate environmental releases of these products to their source or other releases.     

Applications of Anthropogenic Lead ArchaeoStratigraphy (ALAS Model) to Hydrocarbon Remediation

A model, which employs the use of high precision stable lead isotopic analyses, has been developed to estimate the age of hydrocarbon releases. The ALAS Model (Anthropogenic Lead ArchaeoStratigraphy) is based on calibrated, systematic increases in lead isotope ratios of gasolines caused by shifts in sources of lead ores used by the U.S. lead industry, including manufacturers of alkylleads, to more radiogenic Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposits. Acquisition of high quality samples (free product, gasoline-impacted soil and groundwater) of known age and subsequent analyses of the hydrocarbon component by high precision lead isotopic analyses by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) have produced the ALAS Model calibration curve. Age uncertainties range from  ± 1 to 2 years for gasoline releases which occurred between 1965 and 1990, the major era of leaded gasoline usage. Analytical methods required to measure lead isotope ratios on ∼5 nanograms of lead with precisions and accuracy of < ± 0.1% (2_SEM) are discussed in detail. Published lead isotopic measurements of gasoline-derived anthropogenic lead of samples throughout the United States are used to demonstrate the wide geographic range over which the ALAS Model may be applied. Two representative case studies involving an early 1970s free product release in California and the discrimination of a 1970s from modern unleaded gasoline release in Florida demonstrate the use of the model on single and multiple hydrocarbon releases, respectively, in different geographic regions of the United States. A third investigation focuses on the use of lead isotopes to correlate dissolved phase hydrocarbons with their source, in this case, unleaded (aka low lead) gasoline releases in New Jersey. Dissolved phase hydrocarbons (BTEX/MTBE) are shown to carry the lead isotopic signature of the unleaded gasoline into groundwater, allowing the specific source of the release to be identified. Investigations of lead isotopes as tracers of MTBE in groundwater are ongoing. However, both laboratory and field data indicate MTBE carries the lead isotopic signature of its unleaded gasoline source into groundwater, demonstrating the potential of the lead isotopic system as a discriminant of MTBE sources. Although developed to estimate the age of leaded gasoline releases, the ALAS Model has been successfully applied in studies requiring age dating of jet-A, diesel, kerosene, motor oil, and heating oil. These petroleum distillates are suspected of accidentally acquiring small, yet significant quantities of alkylleads during refining, allowing accurate ALAS Model ages to be determined. When lead levels in these petroleum distillates are within their normal range, typically tens to hundreds of ppb lead, it is possible to use lead isotopic ratios to correlate environmental releases of these products to their source or other releases.     

Determination of the Detailed Hydrocarbon Composition and Potential Atmospheric Reactivity of Full-Range Motor Gasolines

The quantitative data obtained with a capillary GLC method, which is used to determine the individual C₃-C₁₂ hydrocarbons in full-range motor gasolines, have been employed in a computer program to calculate the hydrocarbon composition of the vapor in equilibrium with a gasoline at 100°F, as well as the equilibrium vapor-pressure of the gasoline at that temperature. The method used for computation is similar to that previously described by McEwen, assuming the gasoline to behave as an ideal liquid. Also calculated is the potential atmospheric reactivity of this equilibrium vapor relative to that from other gasolines when specific reactivity weighting factors for the individual hydrocarbons are employed. Calculated total vapor-pressure data agree well with experimental Reid vapor-pressure data obtained for typical premium-grade gasolines. Definite differences were observed in the relative potential atmospheric reactivities calculated at 100°F for the equilibrium vapors from the test gasolines.     

Vapor pressure response to denaturant and water in E10 blends

On December 16, 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the final rule on reformulated gasoline (RFG). This rule will affect the composition of as much as 45% of the gasoline used in the United States by the summer of 1995. The acceptance of any gasoline component lies in its ability to contribute to the RFG program's environmental goals. This study was conducted to determine the effect of water and ethanol denaturant on gasoline Reid vapor pressure (RVP) for which little quantitative data are available. This paper addresses two new areas where environmental goals may be achieved while maintaining the use of ethanol-blended gasolines within ozone nonattainment areas.     

Effects of ethanol as an additive on odor detection thresholds of Alaskan gasolines at sub-arctic temperatures

This study evaluated the odor thresholds of two Alaskan unleaded gasolines, Tesoro and Mapco, and their ethanol oxyfuel blends at typical winter temperatures of −25°F, O°F, and +25°F. We found that temperature had a slight but variable effect on both odor thresholds and headspace composition. When 10% ethanol was added to Tesoro, a refined gasoline, there was a significant lowering (83%) of the odor detection threshold, i.e., an increase in human sensitivity to the odor. Vapors formulated from 10% ethanol-Mapco gasoline mixtures did not change the odor detection threshold. This study supports the hypothesis that the base gasolines interact variably with oxygenate additives. Ethanol appears to behave in a dissimilar manner when added to gasolines with different aromatic content.     

Using the Gasoline Additive MTBE in Forensic Environmental Investigations

A variety of additives are used in gasoline, and they can sometimes be used to help identify the source, timing, or number of gasoline spills at a site. The physicochemical characteristics of the additive MTBE, and its historical use pattern in the United States since 1979, make it a key compound to study when conducting forensic investigations of gasoline spills. MTBE's low octanol: water distribution coefficient and high solubility cause it to dissolve into groundwater more readily than other gasoline components. Thus, the initial appearance of MTBE in the groundwater is often a good indicator of a recent gasoline spill. MTBE's very low retardation and minimal biodegradation in groundwater can be used with transport rate calculations to establish relatively accurate estimates of spill timing. Because MTBE moves faster in groundwater than BTEX compounds, if a gasoline spill site has a BTEX plume that is longer than the MTBE plume, it is certain that at least two distinctly different gasoline releases have occurred. This allows for the identification of new gasoline spills, even when substantial subsurface petroleum contamination already exists. An example application is reviewed to demonstrate the use of MTBE data in forensic investigations.     

Using the Gasoline Additive MTBE in Forensic Environmental Investigations

A variety of additives are used in gasoline, and they can sometimes be used to help identify the source, timing, or number of gasoline spills at a site. The physicochemical characteristics of the additive MTBE, and its historical use pattern in the United States since 1979, make it a key compound to study when conducting forensic investigations of gasoline spills. MTBE's low octanol : water distribution coefficient and high solubility cause it to dissolve into groundwater more readily than other gasoline components. Thus, the initial appearance of MTBE in the groundwater is often a good indicator of a recent gasoline spill. MTBE's very low retardation and minimal biodegradation in groundwater can be used with transport rate calculations to establish relatively accurate estimates of spill timing. Because MTBE moves faster in groundwater than BTEX compounds, if a gasoline spill site has a BTEX plume that is longer than the MTBE plume, it is certain that at least two distinctly different gasoline releases have occurred. This allows for the identification of new gasoline spills, even when substantial subsurface petroleum contamination already exists. An example application is reviewed to demonstrate the use of MTBE data in forensic investigations.     

Motor Vehicle Lead Embssbons Bo the Unfed States: An Analysis of Important Determinants,Geographic Patterns and Future Trends

This paper presents a simple method which utilizes composite emission factors to estimate motor vehicle lead emissions for large areas. Composite emission factors incorporate information on vehicle lead emission rates, sales-weighted average fuel economies, annual vehicle travel fractions, and average gasoline lead concentrations. The lead emissions estimation procedure takes as given estimates of motor vehicle travel and, hence, can be applied to any region or road system for which current or projected travel estimates are available. Estimates of motor vehicle lead emissions for major highway systems in individual states and national forecasts of motor vehicle lead emissions for six potential scenarios regarding the future use of lead additives in gasoline are presented to demonstrate the application of the method.     

Modeling the partitioning of BTEX in water-reformulated gasoline systems containing ethanol

The objectives of this research were to quantify the extent of cosolvency for water–gasoline mixtures containing ethanol and to identify appropriate modeling tools for predicting the equilibrium partitioning of BTEX compounds and ethanol between an ethanol-bearing gasoline and water. Batch-equilibrium experiments were performed to measure ethanol and BTEX partitioning between a gasoline and aqueous phase. The experiments incorporated simple binary and multicomponent organic mixtures comprised of as many as eight compounds as well as highly complex commercial gasolines where the composition of the organic phase was not completely defined. At high ethanol volume fractions, the measured partition coefficients displayed an approximate linear relationship when plotted on semi-log scale as a function of ethanol volume fraction. At lower concentrations, however, there was a distinctly different trend which is attributed to a change in solubilization mechanisms at these concentrations. Three mathematical models were compared with or fit to the experimental results. Log-linear and UNIFAC-based models were used in a predictive capacity and were capable of representing the overall increase in partition coefficients as a function of increasing ethanol content in the aqueous phase. However, neither of these predicted the observed two-part curve. A piecewise model comprised of a linear relationship for low ethanol volume fractions and a log-linear model for higher concentrations was fit to data for a surrogate gasoline comprised of eight compounds and was then used to predict BTEX concentrations in the aqueous phase equilibrated with three different commercial gasolines. This model was superior to the UNIFAC predictions, especially at the low aqueous ethanol concentrations.     

Age-dating Diesel Fuel Spills: Using the European Empirical Time-based Model in the U.S.A.

In 1993, a paper was published by Christensen and Larsen that offered a method for determining the age of diesel oil spills in soil (Christensen and Larsen, 1993 Ground Water Mount. R . Fall , 142-149). It presented an empirical time-based model of the degradation of diesel fuel in soils using chemical data gathered at petroleum release sites in Denmark and the Netherlands. Now, evaluation of the validity of the application of this work to subsurface petroleum releases in other countries remains. In the U.S.A., investigations assessing date(s) of release of diesel fuel in soils, e.g. age dating of subsurface petroleum contamination, have considerable interest. Litigation-driven scientific investigations with accompanying expert testimony in a court of law are underway. The number of instances where application of the Christensen and Larsen empirical time-based model to petroleum-contaminated properties is growing in the U.S.A. This paper presents two case studies which evaluate the applicability of the Christensen and Larsen empirical time-based model to petroleum-contaminated properties in general. It illustrates the approach using gas chromatographic data from two recently-completed projects evaluating the applicability of the Christensen and Larsen model to a No. 2 fuel oil/diesel fuel surface spill in the U.S.A. Results showed that the application of the model to petroleum-contaminated soils was scientifically valid, provided its applicability was evaluated using hypothesis testing for specific changes in the characteristics of the petroleum hydrocarbon distribution in a number of soil samples collected over time at one site. The paper offers observations on the application of the Christensen and Larsen model to petroleum found in the light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) phase and groundwater.     

Age-dating Diesel Fuel Spills: Using the European Empirical Time-based Model in the U.S.A.

In 1993, a paper was published by Christensen and Larsen that offered a method for determining the age of diesel oil spills in soil (7Ground Water Mount.R . Fall, 142–149). It presented an empirical time-based model of the degradation of diesel fuel in soils using chemical data gathered at petroleum release sites in Denmark and the Netherlands. Now, evaluation of the validity of the application of this work to subsurface petroleum releases in other countries remains.In the U.S.A., investigations assessing date(s) of release of diesel fuel in soils, e.g. age dating of subsurface petroleum contamination, have considerable interest. Litigation-driven scientific investigations with accompanying expert testimony in a court of law are underway. The number of instances where application of the Christensen and Larsen empirical time-based model to petroleum-contaminated properties is growing in the U.S.A.This paper presents two case studies which evaluate the applicability of the Christensen and Larsen empirical time-based model to petroleum-contaminated properties in general. It illustrates the approach using gas chromatographic data from two recently-completed projects evaluating the applicability of the Christensen and Larsen model to a No. 2 fuel oil/diesel fuel surface spill in the U.S.A. Results showed that the application of the model to petroleum-contaminated soils was scientifically valid, provided its applicability was evaluated using hypothesis testing for specific changes in the characteristics of the petroleum hydrocarbon distribution in a number of soil samples collected over time at one site. The paper offers observations on the application of the Christensen and Larsen model to petroleum found in the light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) phase and groundwater.     

Combustion of gasolines in premixed laminar flames European certified and California phase 2 reformulated gasoline

Two gasoline qualities, European unleaded certified gasoline (EUCG) and California phase 2 reformulated gasoline (P2 RFG), were analysed. EUCG contained about twice the amount of alkyl benzenes compared to P2 RFG and a large amount of cyclohexane. As a balance, P2 RFG contained higher amounts of isooctane and MTBE. The gasolines were burned in a premixed laminar flame burner at 1 atm and at about stoichiometric fuel/air ratio. The species profiles were measured using on-line GC/MS. About 40 compounds were be detected in the gasoline flames. The EUCG resulted in formation of more reactive and toxic compounds. The combustion profiles of the fuel components showed a similar slope, which suggests that the fuel components burn quite independently of each other. Ethene and propene were the dominating species produced from the two gasolines. Commonly, substantial amounts of higher alkenes were found. Combustion of P2 RFG produced higher amounts of isobutene, propene, propyne, propadiene and methanol compared to combustion of EUCG. The high amount of isobutene is reasonably a result of high concentration of isooctane and MTBE in the fuel. The high amount of methanol formed is probably due to the MTBE present in the gasoline. EUCG produced significantly higher amounts of 1,3-butadiene, which quite likely is formed from the cyclohexane in the fuel. The benzene profiles from both gasolines shows an almost constant level up to 800 microm from the burner surface; this is probably due to formation of benzene from alkyl benzenes.     

Determination of the applicability of CERCLA's petroleum exclusion at contaminated sites – focus on metals

Areas impacted by petroleum refining and handling operations may become subject to CERCLA enforcement. Because of CERCLA's petroleum exclusion clause, determining whether contamination in a CERCLA Site originated from petroleum products or hazardous wastes becomes important. Because certain metals are typically enriched in wastes relative to petroleum products and background soils, knowledge of metal contents in these potential end member metal sources is an important step towards contaminant source identification in soils and sediments. In LNAPL plumes, metal content, particularly lead, may be claimed to be the result of wastes mishandling and not due only to the presence of leaded gasoline in the plume. Analysis of the percent gasoline in the plume and accounting for weathering are steps to determining whether the lead content in an LNAPL plume is within the historical lead concentration ranges in gasolines. In addition to metals analyses, understanding of operational parameters such as the history of petroleum refining and handling operations, leaks, spills, and cleanup activities are needed for successful conclusion of the applicability of the petroleum exclusion.     

Accurate Chemical Analysis of MTBE in Environmental Media

The new millennium ushers in changes for refiners of automobile gasoline in the United States, as well as for the state and federal regulators who establish guidelines for gasoline formulation and environmental regulation governing the fate of gasoline-related chemicals in the nation's air, soil and groundwater. One current issue in the gasoline formulation debate centers on the comparison of the proven benefits of the addition of chemical oxygenates—especially methyltert -butyl ether (MTBE)—to gasoline (to improve tailpipe emission quality) against the presumed environmental problems caused by the presence of oxygenates in ground- and surface waters due to fugitive releases of gasoline. Credible debate on this subject presumes that current and past environmental monitoring data for MTBE in environmental samples is accurate and precise. Experience suggests that this assumption is not correct, in part because certain analytical methodologies—particularly older methods supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—can fall short of reasonable data quality goals for measurement of MTBE. This Technical Note summarizes the standard EPA methods available to site investigators who need to measure MTBE in environmental media, the limitations and advantages of these measurement techniques, and recommendations for improving these standard EPA methods to yield the highest quality MTBE environmental residue data.     

Determination of the potential for release of mercury from combustion product amended soils: Part 1--Simulations of beneficial use

This paper describes a project that assessed the potential for mercury (Hg) release to air and water from soil amended with combustion products to simulate beneficial use. Combustion products (ash) derived from wood, sewage sludge, subbituminous coal, and a subbituminous coal-petroleum coke mixture were added to soil as agricultural supplements, soil stabilizers, and to develop low-permeability surfaces. Hg release was measured from the latter when intact and after it was broken up and mixed into the soil. Air-substrate Hg exchange was measured for all materials six times over 24 hr, providing data that reflected winter, spring, summer, and fall meteorological conditions. Dry deposition of atmospheric Hg and emission of Hg to the atmosphere were both found to be important fluxes. Measured differences in seasonal and diel (24 hr) fluxes demonstrated that to establish an annual estimate of air-substrate flux from these materials data on both of these time steps should be collected. Air-substrate exchange was highly correlated with soil and air temperature, as well as incident light. Hg releases to the atmosphere from coal and wood combustion product-amended soils to simulate an agricultural application were similar to that measured for the unamended soil, whereas releases to the air for the sludge-amended materials were higher. Hg released to soil solutions during the Synthetic Precipitation Leaching Procedure for ash-amended materials was higher than that released from soil alone. On the basis of estimates of annual releases of Hg to the air from the materials used, emissions from coal and wood ash-amended soil to simulate an agricultural application could simply be re-emission of Hg deposited by wet processes from the atmosphere; however, releases from sludge-amended materials and those generated to simulate soil stabilization and disturbed low-permeability pads include Hg indigenous to the material.     

The Effect of Ethanol Fuel on the Emissions of Vehicles over a Wide Range of Temperatures

ABSTRACT

The emissions from a fleet of 11 vehicles, including three from the State of Alaska, were tested at 75, 0, and -20 °F with base gasolines and E10 gasolines, that is, gasolines with 10% by volume ethanol added. The data for the changes in emissions for the test run at 75 °F are included, since most other studies on the effects of E10 gasoline on emissions were run at that temperature. The three Alaskan vehicles were also tested at 20 °F. The testing followed the Federal Test Procedure, and regulated emissions—CO, total hydrocarbons (THC), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x)—CO₂, speciated organics, and fuel economy were measured. A total of 490 FTP tests were run. The data obtained indicated that with most vehicles, at the temperatures tested, improvements in both CO and THC emissions were obtained with the use of E10 fuel. At the lowest temperature used, -20 °F, most vehicles had an increase in NO emissions with the use of E10 fuel. At the other temperatures, however, more vehicles showed a decrease in NO_x emissions with the use of E10. With all vehicles at all temperatures tested, the emissions of acetaldehyde increased significantly when E10 fuel was used. The highest increase was about 8 to 1. Benzene, formaldehyde, and 1,3 butadiene showed both increases and decreases in the emissions when using E10 fuel. Unexpected results were obtained with the fuel economy, with about half of the tests showing an increase in fuel economy with the use of E10 fuel.     

Lead (Pb) isotopic fingerprinting and its applications in lead pollution studies in China: A review

As the most widely scattered toxic metal in the world, the sources of lead (Pb) observed in contamination investigation are often difficult to identify. This review presents an overview of the principles, analysis, and applications of Pb isotopic fingerprinting in tracing the origins and transport pathways of Pb in the environment. It also summarizes the history and current status of lead pollution in China, and illustrates the power of Pb isotopic fingerprinting with examples of its recent applications in investigating the effectiveness of leaded gasoline phase-out on atmospheric lead pollution, and the sources of Pb found in various environmental media (plants, sediments, and aquatic organisms) in China. The limitations of Pb isotopic fingerprinting technique are discussed and a perspective on its development is also presented. Further methodological developments and more widespread instrument availability are expected to make isotopic fingerprinting one of the key tools in lead pollution investigation.     

Chemical composition of major VOC emission sources in the Seoul atmosphere

This paper describes a chemical analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for five emission sources in Seoul. The source categories included motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline evaporation, paint solvents, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). These sources were selected because they have been known to emit significant quantities of VOCs in the Seoul area (more than 5% of the total emission inventory). Chemical compositions of the five emission sources are presented for a group of 45 C2-C9 VOCs. Motor vehicle exhaust profiles were developed by conducting an urban tunnel study. These emissions profiles were distinguished from the other emission profiles by a high weight percentage of butanes over seasons and propane in the wintertime. It was found that this is due to the wide use of butane-fueled vehicles. To obtain gasoline vapor profiles, gasoline samples from five major brands for each season were selected. The brands were blended on the basis of the marketshare of these brands in Seoul area. Raoult's law was used to calculate gasoline evaporative compositions based on the liquid gasoline compositions. The measured and estimated gasoline vapor compositions were found to be in good agreement. Vehicle and gasoline evaporation profiles were made over seasons because of the seasonal change in their compositions. Paint solvent emissions profiles were produced based on a product-use survey and sales figures. These profiles are a composite of four major oil-based paints and thinning solvent. The source profile of natural gas was made on a methane-free basis. It was found that Ethane and propane were the most abundant compounds accounting for 95% of the natural gas composition. LPG was largely composed of propane and ethane and the remaining components were minor contributors.     

Partitioning of aromatic and oxygenated constituents into water from regular and ethanol-blended gasolines

Variability in gasoline-water partitioning of major aromatic constituents (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX)) and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) were examined for regular and ethanol-blended gasolines. By use of a two-phase liquid-liquid equilibrium model, the distribution of nonpolar solutes between fuel phase and water was related to principles of equilibrium. The models derived using Raoult's law convention for activity coefficients and liquid solubility is presented. The observed inverse log-log linear dependence of K_fw values on aqueous solubility, could be well predicted by assuming gasoline to be an ideal solvent mixture. Oxygenated additives (i.e., ethanol and MTBE), in the low percent range (below 5%), were shown to have minimal or negligible cosolvent effects on hydrocarbon partitioning. In the case of high fuel-to-water ratio (e.g., 1:1) or near contaminant source zone, the cosolvent effect of oxygenated gasoline with high content of ethanol (e.g., E85) will be environmentally significant.     

A physical-chemical screening model for anticipating widespread contamination of community water supply wells by gasoline constituents

Continuing modifications of fuels like gasoline should include evaluations of the proposed constituents for their potential to damage environmental resources such as subsurface water supplies. Consequently, we developed a screening model to estimate well water concentrations and transport times for gasoline components migrating from underground fuel tank (UFT) releases to typical at-risk community water supply wells. Representative fuel release volumes and hydrogeologic characteristics were used to parameterize the transport calculation. Subsurface degradation processes were neglected in the model in order to make risk-conservative assessments. The model was tailored to individual compounds based on their abundances in gasoline, gasoline-water partition coefficients (Kgw), and organic matter-water partition coefficients (Kom). Transport calculations were conducted for 20 polar and 4 nonpolar compounds found in gasoline, including methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and other ether oxygenates, ethanol, methanol, and some aromatic hydrocarbons. With no calibration, the screening model successfully captured the reported magnitude of MTBE contamination of at-risk community supply wells. Such screening indicates that other oxygenates would cause similar widespread problems unless they were biodegradable. Stochastic analysis of field parameter variability concluded that community supply well contamination estimates had order-of-magnitude reliability. This indicated that such pre-manufacturing analyses may reasonably anticipate widespread environmental problems and/or inspire focused investigations into chemical properties (e.g., biodegradability) before industrial adoption of new fuel formulations.