Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.     

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.     

From climate research to climate compatible development: experiences and progress in the Netherlands

Over the past decades, significant experience has been gained in demand-driven research on climate change in many countries. In the Netherlands, a competitive call for proposals for large research programmes at the interface between policy, science and private sector was issued in 2001. Members of the Dutch climate research community proved they were able to develop two large research programme proposals which were funded: ‘Climate changes Spatial Planning’ and its successor ‘Knowledge for Climate’. The programmes ran from 2004 to 2012 and from 2008 to 2014, respectively. Both programmes can be considered as a 10-year research programme experiment to develop knowledge about both the climate system and climate compatible development by crossing disciplines, institutions and national research funding strategies. Within this 10-year period, a trend can be observed in which a ‘top-down’ climate impact assessment approach is increasingly combined with a ‘bottom-up’ approach. Based on the 15 articles presented in this special issue (and others), we argue that this development has enriched both fundamental and applied research on climate adaptation. Despite the predominantly Dutch-oriented scope of the presented research, we believe that such experiences can be of international interest. Climate adaptation research finds itself in between global systems knowledge on the one hand and practical needs and experiences at the local, regional and national level on the other. This demands the utmost from all actors involved to enable an efficient and constructive flow and use of knowledge and expertise.     

Vegetation and climate

Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO₂ concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO₂—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change.     

Food security and seasonal climate information: Kenyan challenges

This article examines challenges to food security in areas especially vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change, and the potential contribution of seasonal climate forecasting. Drawing on long-term study of the way environmental information is developed and circulates, and on recent fieldwork in Western Kenya, the article describes how climate variability exacerbates food insecurity; the kinds of climate information that are now being developed; and the kinds of technologies, organizations, and expertise that will be needed if new forms of climate information are to benefit vulnerable populations. Findings indicate that new forms of expertise need to be developed at all scales, and that linkage among stakeholders and between organizations functioning at different scales will be a considerable challenge.     

Human pathogens and their indicators in biosolids: a literature review

A growing beneficial reuse of biosolids in agriculture has led to concerns about potential contamination of water resources and the food chain. In order to comprehend the potential risks of transmission of diseases to the human population, an advanced quantitative risk assessment is essential. This requires good quantitative data which is currently limited due to the methodological limitations. Consequently, further development and standardization of methodologies for the detection, enumeration and viability assessment of pathogens in biosolids is required. There is a paucity of information on the numbers and survival of enteric virus and protozoan pathogens of concern in biosolids. There is a growing urgency for the identification of more reliable alternative indicators, both index and model microorganisms, which could be used for potential public health risk assessment. In this review, we have summarized reported literature on the numbers and fate of enteric pathogens and indicators in biosolids. The advantages and limitations of the use of conventional and alternative index and model microorganisms for the prediction of pathogen presence in biosolids are also discussed.     

Carbon dioxide and climate: Comparison of one- and three-dimensional models

Calculations indicate that there may be a potential climatic problem due to the release of CO₂ from burning fossil fuels. However there is insufficient scientific evidence to predict the impact because the available models are not well enough understood and do not take into account many feedback mechanisms. Therefore, we have calculated atmospheric temperature changes versus latitude with the simpler Manabe-Wetherald radiative-convective model and compared it to the results of their general circulation model. In addition, we have determined the changes in several physical quantities, such as cloud abundance and surface albedo, required to compensate the temperature rise related to increased CO₂ concentrations.     

Agro-climatic classification systems for estimating the global distribution of livestock numbers and commodities.

Investment in agricultural research in developing countries is being increasingly targeted at those agro-climatic zones and issues where the economic and environmental benefits may be expected to be greatest. This first requires that the zones themselves be defined, along with information on domestic livestock numbers and commodity output within agro-climatic zones in different countries. Different methods for classifying agro-climatic zones were compared. These included methods based on estimated length of growing period (LGP) using rainfall and temperature data, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), and on more detailed agronomic models, remote sensing data and land use information. Zonation based on LGP has already been linked to existing national livestock data. By defining agro-climatic zones and relating concentrations of livestock populations to those of humans, it is possible to make realistic estimates of livestock populations and the production of livestock commodities for most developing countries. Detailed agro-climatic analyses of Mainland East Asia and Sri Lanka have recently been undertaken using the GROWEST agronomic model. Using this model as the basis of agro-climatic classification appears to be significantly superior, particularly in temperate environments, to approaches based solely on LGP. Different ways of subdividing countries and continents into agro-climatic or agro-ecological zones (AEZs) are reviewed in this paper. In addition, we show how the numbers of production and commodities from domestic livestock can be allocated to such zones. We also indicate how some of this information can be applied.     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

Australian agriculture: coping with dangerous climate change

Australian agriculture has operated successfully in one of the world’s most hostile environments for two centuries. However, climate change is posing serious challenges to its ongoing success. Determining what might constitute dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is not an easy task, as most climate-related risks are associated with changes in the highly uncertain hydrological cycle rather than directly to more predictable changes in temperature. In addition, the adaptive capacity of Australian producers is generally high, as they have had to cope with a highly variable climate in which periodic, severe droughts are the norm. As the underlying global trends in climate interact with the continent’s patterns of natural variability, producers can generally deal with gradual changes in climate but are most concerned about high rates of change in regional and local climates and with abrupt, unexpected shifts in climate patterns. Perhaps the best indicator of dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is the persistence, or not, of the drying trends in many of the Country’s most productive regions and the strength of the linkage between these trends and global climate change.     

Sustainability indicators for tourism destinations: bibliometric analysis and proposed research agenda

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study aims to provide various maps of the evolution, current situation and future lines of sustainability indicators for tourism destinations...     

Loss and damage related to climate change: connotations and response mechanism

Global mitigative and adaptive efforts have not been able to effectively address the adverse impacts caused by climate change. Therefore, a direct solution is needed to address the significant resulting loss and damage (L&D). During the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Doha in 2012, the issue of responding to L&D arising from climate change gained sudden traction and became one of the key issues that affected the outcome of the convention. In this paper, a study on the definition and connotations of L&D arising from climate change was conducted, together with an analysis of its relationship with related concepts, namely impacts, vulnerability, and risks. This led to the proposal of an L&D conceptual model that is more comprehensive, with the recognition of the need to address the issue through effective supplementation of existing mitigative and adaptive efforts. A systematic elaboration of an L&D response mechanism was made based on politics, law, and the market, leading to a preliminary presentation of a possible format for an L&D mechanism. Potential academic research directions for L&D were also proposed that could serve as references for the establishment of international and national L&D response mechanisms and related research.     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。     

Advancing climate compatible development: lessons from southern Africa

Climate compatible development (CCD) has emerged as a new concept that bridges climate change adaptation, mitigation and community-based development. Progress towards CCD requires multi-stakeholder, multi-sector working and the development of partnerships between actors who may not otherwise have worked together. This creates challenges and opportunities that require careful examination at project and institutional levels and necessitates the sharing of experiences between different settings. In this paper, we draw on the outcomes from a multi-stakeholder workshop held in Mozambique in 2012, the final in a series of activities in a regional project assessing emerging CCD partnerships across southern Africa. The workshop involved policymakers, researchers and representatives from NGOs and the private sector. We employ a content analysis of workshop notes and presentations to identify the progress and challenges in moving four case study countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) towards CCD pathways, by exploring experiences from both project and policy levels. To advance institutional support for the development of successful CCD policies, practices and partnerships, we conclude that there is a need for: (a) institutional development at the national level to strengthen coordination and more clearly define roles and responsibilities across sectors, based on the identification of capacity and knowledge gaps; (b) partnership development, drawing on key strengths and competences of different stakeholders and emphasising the roles of the private sector and traditional authorities; (c) learning and knowledge-sharing through national and regional fora; and (d) development of mechanisms that permit more equitable and transparent distribution of costs and benefits. These factors can facilitate development of multi-stakeholder, multi-level partnerships that are grounded in community engagement from the outset, helping to translate CCD policy statements into on-the-ground action.     

Environmental literacy in practice: education on tropical rainforests and climate change

Environmental literacy is a key concept to promote individual behavioral changes toward a more sustainable lifestyle to consciously react to environmental challenges such as climate change. Promoting knowledge, attitudes and behaviors provides a reasonable basis to prepare adolescents for their future. A recently proposed environmental literacy model comprises three-dimensional knowledge, environmental attitudes and pro-environmental behavior. The present study applies this model by implementing an intervention focusing on tropical rainforests and climate change in a botanical garden, combining student-centered activities with self-dependent learning. Data from 283 10th graders quantify individual knowledge, attitudes and behavior scores. Knowledge acquisition, a positive development of the Inclusion of Nature in One's Self concept and increasing pro-environmental behavior intentions were found by comparing an intervention group with a test–retest group. In conclusion, our botanical garden’s intervention evidently furthered appreciative tendencies and even encouraged environmental literacy.     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s