Reliability of Absolute and Relative Predictions of Population Persistence Based on Time Series

Abstract:  Conventional population viability analysis (PVA) is often impractical because data are scarce for many threatened species. For this reason, simple count-based models are being advocated. The simplest of these models requires nothing more than a time series of abundance estimates, from which variance and autocorrelation in growth rate are estimated and predictions of population persistence are generated. What remains unclear, however, is how many years of data are needed to generate reliable estimates of these parameters and hence reliable predictions of persistence. By analyzing published and simulated time series, we show that several decades of data are needed. Predictions based on short time series were very unreliable mainly because limited data yielded biased, unreliable estimates of variance in growth rate, especially when growth rate was strongly autocorrelated. More optimistically, our results suggest that count-based PVA is sometimes useful for relative risk assessment (i.e., for ranking populations by extinction risk), even when time series are only a decade long. However, some conditions consistently lead to backward rankings. We explored the limited conditions under which simple count-based PVA may be useful for relative risk assessment.     

Effects of Road Networks on Bird Populations

Abstract: One potential contributor to the worldwide decline of bird populations is the increasing prevalence of roads, which have several negative effects on birds and other vertebrates. We synthesized the results of studies and reviews that explore the effects of roads on birds with an emphasis on paved roads. The well‐known direct effects of roads on birds include habitat loss and fragmentation, vehicle‐caused mortality, pollution, and poisoning. Nevertheless, indirect effects may exert a greater influence on bird populations. These effects include noise, artificial light, barriers to movement, and edges associated with roads. Moreover, indirect and direct effects may act synergistically to cause decreases in population density and species richness. Of the many effects of roads, it appears that road mortality and traffic noise may have the most substantial effects on birds relative to other effects and taxonomic groups. Potential measures for mitigating the detrimental effects of roads include noise‐reduction strategies and changes to roadway lighting and vegetation and traffic flow. Road networks and traffic volumes are projected to increase in many countries around the world. Increasing habitat loss and fragmentation and predicted species distribution shifts due to climate change are likely to compound the overall effects of roads on birds.     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .     

Effects of Road Mortality and Mitigation Measures on Amphibian Populations

Road mortality is a widely recognized but rarely quantified threat to the viability of amphibian populations. The global extent of the problem is substantial and factors affecting the number of animals killed on highways include life‐history traits and landscape features. Secondary effects include genetic isolation due to roads acting as barriers to migration. Long‐term effects of roads on population dynamics are often severe and mitigation methods include volunteer rescues and under‐road tunnels. Despite the development of methods that reduce road kill in specific locations, especially under‐road tunnels and culverts, there is scant evidence that such measures will protect populations over the long term. There also seems little likelihood that funding will be forthcoming to ameliorate the problem at the scale necessary to prevent further population declines. Efectos de la Mortalidad en Carreteras y Medidas de Mitigación en Poblaciones de Anfibios Beebee     

郑州市道路网络结构特征对大气颗粒物污染的影响及尺度效应

交通排放是大气颗粒物(PM)污染主要来源之一,从道路网络空间结构探究大气颗粒物污染缓解途径,对治理城市空气污染具有重要意义。该研究数据来源于郑州市GF-2遥感影像及建成区8个空气质量监测点(AQMS)的日监测数据。以AQMS为中心建立1 km×1 km(Scale1)-6 km×6 km(Scale6)空间尺度的样方,运用主成分分析法和线性混合效应模型,探讨不同空间尺度下影响PM10、PM2.5质量浓度的关键性路网结构特征,为郑州市路网结构规划和空气污染治理提供科学依据。结果表明,(1)郑州市建成区各监测点的颗粒物质量浓度及变异性都有冬高夏低的特征。(2)郑州市路网结构对PM10质量浓度的影响程度高于PM2.5。(3)主干道面积占比与PM10在Scale1、Scale3-Scale5尺度正相关,与PM2.5仅在Scale5正相关;总道路及次干道面积占比与PM10在Scale2-Scale6均正相关,但与PM2.5仅在Scale5、Scale6尺度正相关。在Scale5的空间尺度下控制总道路及次干道面积占比、减少主干道面积占比,可以有效缓解PM10、PM2.5的污染。(4)路网连通复杂度在Scale2与PM10负相关,在Scale2尺度提升路网环通复杂度可以促进PM10污染的有效缓解。(5)节点与廊道数量水平在Scale1、Scale2与PM10负相关,在Scale1、Scale5与PM2.5负相关。通过在Scale1尺度提升节点与廊道数量水平可以同时有效缓解PM10、PM2.5污染。