火山喷发沉降物扩散理论模型

对Suzuki二维扩散模型进行了改进，用改进的模型计算了火山喷发碎屑沉降分布，获得了沉降沉积物的多峰结构及第二沉降峰的分布特征，进一步讨论了风速和β参数对沉降峰分布的影响；对我国长白山天池火山喷发碎屑沉降物的分布特征进行了模拟，这一模拟对火山活动区的灾害评估和减灾防灾，以及地球动力学研究都有积极的意义。     

基于监测数据挖掘的高铁气象灾害风险评估方法研究

气象灾害风险评估对高铁气象灾害防御具有重要的指导作用。在分析了影响高铁运行的主要气象要素的基础上,研究了高铁气象灾害风险评估指标体系,包含致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力等,探讨了高铁多灾种和单一灾种的气象灾害风险评估方法。以大风灾害风险评估为例,建立了大风灾害风险评估指标体系,基于熵权法研究了大风危险性,在此基础上,采用加权综合评价法对大风风险进行了分析。结合具体线路风监测数据,研究了相应线路大风风险,并进行了风险区划。与基于气象部门数据开展的铁路气象灾害风险评估相比,基于铁路气象要素监测数据的气象灾害风险评估对气象要素的时空特性反映更加细致,更能代表铁路沿线气象灾害特征,研究可为高铁气象灾害防治提供参考。     

四川省泥石流灾害保险的风险分析与区划

泥石流灾害保险的风险评估和区划，是分区分类防灾和损失评估的重要依据，也是泥石流灾害保险费率厘定的基础。采用综合评判的数学方法，选取对泥石流灾害保险起主导作用的灾害损失、孕灾环境和风险区价值为评判因子，对泥石流灾害保险的风险进行了评估。以四川省为例，介绍了进行风险区划的方法和步骤，将四川全省按地、市、州级行政区划分为19个风险评判区，对各区进行泥石流灾害保险风险评估，在此基础上完成了四川省泥石流灾害保险风险评估区划图。     

基于GIS的长白山地区地质灾害风险综合评估

以长白山地区为研究区,以该地区地质灾害分布数据,专题地图数据和统计数据作为数据源,基于区域灾害系统论的观点,结合地质灾害现状发育因素、地质环境条件因素、人类工程活动因素和社会经济发展因素,将地质灾害易发分区评价和自然灾害风险评估结合起来对长白山地区地质灾害风险进行了综合评估研究。采用100 m×100 m的栅格单元作为基本的评估单元,采用极差法对指标值进行标准化处理,采用层次分析法确定指标的权重,采用综合指数法计算地质灾害风险综合指数,并将其划分为一级风险区、二级风险区、三级风险区和四级风险区,得到了长白山地区地质灾害风险等级分布图。该等级分布图揭示了地质灾害风险在长白山地区的分布情况。结果表明:长白山地区地质灾害风险等级呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体上研究区东西两端较高,中部较低。长白山地区地质灾害风险水平主要以三级风险区为主,表明从整体上看,研究区大部分地区地质灾害风险水平相对较低。     

基于GIS的区域干旱灾害风险区划研究——以武陵山片区为例

根据灾害系统理论,以连片特困区-武陵山片区干旱灾害为例,分别从孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子的危险性和承载体的脆弱性3个方面,选取地形地貌、土壤类型、植被覆盖类型、水资源、降雨量、人口密度及耕地面积等指标为旱灾风险评估指标因子,利用熵权法确定各因子权重,建立武陵山片区干旱灾害风险评估模型,并进行风险区划,为武陵山片区区域防灾、减灾和区域扶贫措施的制定提供参考依据。研究结果表明:武陵山片区区域整体处于中、高风险区,空间分布呈东南-西北向条带状分布;东南区域处在干旱灾害高风险区,西北区域处在干旱灾害中等风险区,而东北区域处在相对较低的风险区。     

基于GIS的全国山洪灾害风险评估

针对我国山洪灾害空间分布特点,基于自然灾害风险理论,确定全国山洪灾害风险评估模型。在大尺度山洪灾害危险评估比较研究的基础上,从可能引起山洪灾害发生的外界触发因子和可能遭受潜在损失的承灾体两个角度出发,选取山洪灾害风险评估指标构建指标体系。采用主成分分析法提取危险性指标主成分,层次分析法确定各指标权重,在GIS技术支持下,制作各因子指标分布图,开展全国山洪灾害危险性及易损性定量分析,完成全国山洪灾害风险定量评估并得到风险分区图。最后将风险评估结果与全国山洪灾害防治类型区进行比较,结果表明,山洪灾害风险分区与防治类型区吻合较好,高风险区基本分布在我国的山洪灾害重点防治区,未来山洪灾害防控重点可从影响山洪灾害风险程度的危险性因子和易损性因子入手。     

长白山天池火山的研究现状与展望

较详细地介绍了近年来长白山天池火山喷发历史、火山形成机制、火山系统的探测和火山灾害的研究现状，指出了当前研究中存在的一些主要问题。建议今后应加强火山活动历史研究；探测岩浆作用及其动态变化，限定火山失稳条件；研究岩浆作用和火山触发机制；开展火山作用的试验模拟和火山灾害区划的定量模拟研究；建立火山灾害预警系统，制定火山灾害应急预案，以达到减轻火山灾害的目的。     

国家级海洋公园灾害风险评估研究进展

通过梳理近10年国内外相关文献,阐述了国家级海洋公园面临的灾害风险因素,并在灾害风险要素、风险评估指标、风险评估方法以及评估体系运用等几个方面对当前国家级海洋公园灾害风险评估研究现状进行了述评。对今后国家级海洋公园灾害风险评估方法的发展提出思考,提出通过增强国家海洋公园灾害风险的各类影响因子之间的定量分析,构建国家海洋公园灾害风险评估与可持续发展的有效协调,完善国家海洋公园灾害风险相关类的数据库等研究展望,希望能为国家级海洋公园的生态环境研究与灾害风险评估研究提供参考。     

基于智能网格预报的江西暴雨灾害风险预评估研究

利用1951—2022年江西降水实况、逐日智能网格降水预报产品、暴雨灾情损失，地形DEM、河网密度及GDP、人口等数据，分析了江西暴雨灾害风险的主要影响因素，从暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性三方面，构建了江西暴雨灾害风险评估模型。利用模型对2010—2020年135次暴雨过程灾害风险进行评估检验，结果显示该模型较为合理；对2019年6月6—11日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险评估，结果显示该过程中吉安北部至赣州东北部、上饶东部为重度到极重度受灾区；再对2022年6月12—15日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险逐日预评估；两者结果均与灾情实况分布大体一致，总体效果较好。     

走近长白山

长白山,位于中国吉林省延边州安图县和白山市抚松县境内,是中朝两国的界山、中华十大名山之一。因其主峰多白色浮石与积雪而得名,素有"千年积雪为年松,直上人间第一峰"的美誉。中国境内的白云峰海拔高度2691米,由粗面岩组成,夏季白岩裸露,冬季白雪皑皑,终年常白,系多次火山喷发而成,是东北第一高峰,而长白山最高峰是位于朝鲜境内的将军峰,2750米。长白山是中国东北境内海拔最高、喷口最大的火山体。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。     

A general assessment of the environmental impact of refugees in Somalia with attention to the refugee agricultural programme

This paper attempts to examine the broad features of Somalia's harsh physical environment into which several hundreds of thousands of refugees, with mainly a nomadic or semi-nomadic life style and culture, dramatically descended six years ago. The thirty-six rural camps in which at least half of them live are described as is the refugee agricultural programme which is training several thousand families so that they may be "self-supporting." The four regions where the camps are located are each briefly summarized in terms of their soils, their climates, their natural vegetation, and the type of agriculture which the refugee farmers practice. A more detailed analysis is then given on the following critical environmental concerns: Vegetation and erosion on refugee farms, the growing problem of refugee livestock, the destruction of trees, and irrigation practices and salinity on refugee farms. The paper concludes with an argument to preserve Somalia's environment from careless and destructive exploitation, which is leading towards desertification, and calls for an in-depth study of the situation.