Changing consumption patterns and CO2 reduction

Today, most countries are facing national CO₂ targets focused on production and direct energy use. However, two important driving forces are increased consumption and changing consumption patterns. In this paper, we analyse the impact from household consumption on CO₂ emissions. Household energy use is taken into account, as is the consumption of commodities and services produced by industry. Based on Danish data, we estimate the CO₂ impact from different commodities. Further, we analyse the impact of changes in commodity mix in Danish household consumption in the period from 1966 to 1992. The results show that the change in commodity mix has been insufficient to compensate for the overall growth in Danish consumption. Further, we see that the consumption of food is a main contributor to overall Danish CO₂ emissions.     

A structural decomposition analysis of air pollution from fossil fuel combustion in India

During the last decade, there has been worldwide concern with global climate change, which has been induced by greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to the use of fossil fuels. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been identified as the single most significant source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Realising the need to control and regulate emissions of pollutants, the objective of the present study estimates the trend of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x between the periods 1991-92 and 1996-97. An input-output structural decomposition analysis approach is used to determine their sources of change. It also provides a set of alternative scenarios for the year 2001-2 and 2006-7. The sources of changes in the amount of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x emissions are categorised into four factors: the ecoefficiency, the structure of production, the structure of demand, and the volume of demand. Results indicate that the electricity sector contributes more towards direct, as well as indirect, emission coefficients. The petroleum product sector also contributes more in this respect. The dominant role is played by the structure of demand and the volume of demand.     

Air pollution and inversion features in Istanbul

Air pollution in the Istanbul metropolitan area arises from three significant sources: industrial and residential fossil fuels and road traffic. In winter this combination pushes air pollution to levels that are dangerous to humans and to plant life. As far as fossil fuels are concerned, total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulphur dioxide are the chief pollutants. In order to investigate the problem, five-year winter-season monthly pollution concentration records are used, starting from 1989. Classical statistical methods, such as frequency distribution functions, are examined and found to have exponential (SO₂), logarithmic normal (TSP) and Weibull (inversion height) distributions. A simple concept of 'pollutant polygon' is presented in order to make detailed interpretations of the relationship between the monthly averages of SO₂ and TSP. These levels were affected by the weak dispersion conditions in the lower atmosphere over the city.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Greenhouse Gas Dynamics of Municipal Solid Waste Alternatives

ABSTRACT

Previous greenhouse gas studies comparing landfilling with combustion of municipal solid waste (MSW) are limited to examinations of the emissions weighted by their relative radiative activity. This paper adds another dimension by analyzing the atmospheric response to these emissions. The heart of the analysis is a time-dependent model using a perturbation analysis of the IS92a results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using as inputs the emissions from the two technologies, the model calculates atmospheric concentration histories. Scenarios for a landfill and a combustor envision each accepting 1000 Mg refuse/day for a 30-year operating period followed by a 70-year postclosure period. The baseline scenario examines the basic greenhouse impact of each technology. The other scenario adds active gas collection at the landfill and energy offset credits for avoided power plant carbon emissions. For both scenarios, CH₄ and trace gases from the landfill persist in the atmosphere, and they are relatively potent at forcing IR heating. The combination of these features place the landfill much higher than previously expected on the greenhouse impact scale. For the baseline scenario, the time-integrated radiative forcing from landfilling is 115 times that of combustion, and this ratio is 45 for the second scenario.     

Sustainable urban transportation: impact of CO2 mitigation strategies on local pollutants

This paper assesses CO₂ mitigation strategies in Delhi and Mumbai against the dynamics of local pollutants. After testing against techno-economic feasibility, compressed natural gas (CNG) technology, four-stroke two-wheelers and battery-operated vehicles (BOV) were selected as candidate options for Mumbai and Delhi. Multiple constrained optimisation for finding out the optimal mix of vehicles to meet the travel demand under the business-as-usual scenario for the period of CO₂ mitigation targets of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% resulted in reduced stock of diesel and petrol vehicles, with the reduction spanning over different points of the above time period. In the case of Mumbai, battery-operated three-wheelers dominated the vehicular mix, with the share of CNG vehicles remaining at a standard level. CO₂ reduction targets did not influence the CNG option significantly. CO₂ mitigation influenced the dynamics of local pollutants considerably in both Delhi and Mumbai. In Delhi, TSP and SOx reduction levels against the CO₂ mitigation target were found to be significant. In Mumbai, the percentage reduction in local pollution (TSP in particular) was higher than the target CO₂ reduction. Local pollutants other than TSP and SO_x showed an increasing trend against the CO₂ mitigation strategies in Delhi. In the case of Mumbai, all non-target pollutants showed a falling trend against the CO₂ mitigation strategies, though insignificantly for pollutants other than TSP and SO_x.     

Effects of air pollution on emergency admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases in Oporto, Portugal

The present paper is based on results collected from the air quality network, which was assembled for covering the Oporto metropolitan area, in Portugal. Among the SO₂ and PM₁₀ levels obtained for the last two decades, a particular unpolluted year was chosen to evaluate the health effects of concentrations lower than those that usually cause acute episodes. It was observed that even low levels of SO₂ could be related with the increase of obstructive chronic pulmonary diseases morbidity daily rates recorded in Oporto during the same year. When the relationship between levels of atmospheric pollution and human health is considered, climatic factors have a synergetic effect. The observation of respiratory symptoms for concentrations below the current ambient standards, in agreement with previous studies carried out in the same area and other countries, suggests that it is urgent the process of updating and revision of those values in order to protect in effect the health of populations. As particles have shown an important role on health impact, its characterisation was done, considering their respirable fractions. It was concluded that most of the total suspended particles are breathable. Moreover, more than 78% and 87% of the organic composition and of the carcinogenic agent benzo(a)pyrene content, respectively, are detected in particles liable to attain the respiratory tract.     

Analysis and interpretation of the monitoring data for C2–C11 hydrocarbons in the atmosphere of a rural Portuguese site

This paper focuses the application of a measurement technique for determining atmospheric C₂–C₆ hydrocarbons after canister sampling and analysis by gas chromatography/flame ionisation detection (GC/FID), as well of an adsorption-sampling technique for C₆–C₁₁ compounds and GC/FID analysis after thermal desorption and cryogenic concentration. Tens of samples collected at Giesta, a rural area located 20 km to the SE of the coastal Portuguese city of Aveiro, were analysed. The characterisation of C₂ C₁₁ hydrocarbons is presented, considering seasonal variations, diurnal cycles, the influence of air masses and different photochemical conditions. Ratios between hydrocarbons and principal components analysis were applied to differentiate between biogenic and anthropogenic sources.     

Observation based analysis for the determination of equilibrium time constant between ammonia, acid gases, and fine particles

Experimental measurements of ammonia, acid gases, and the inorganic components of atmospheric aerosols were made at a commercial hog farm in eastern North Carolina from May 1998 to June 1999 by an annular denuder system (ADS). The ADS consisted of a cyclone separator, one diffusion denuder coated with sodium carbonate, another diffusion denuder with citric acid, and a filter pack containing Teflon and nylon filters in series. The equilibrium time constant for transfer between ammonia, acid gases, and aerosol phase of ammonium nitrate and ammonium chloride was determined based on kinetic rate constants (k_N as the rate constant of ammonium nitrate aerosol: 2.04 × 10^-4 m³/µmole/sec; k_Cl as the rate constant of ammonium chloride aerosol: 3.44 × 10^-4 m³/µmole/sec) and the observed inorganic components of atmospheric aerosols. The equilibrium time constant was determined based on kinetic rate constants and the observed inorganic components of atmospheric aerosols. The equilibrium time constant has a wide range of values, with an average value of 15.26 (±10.94) minutes for ambient equilibrium time between ammonia, nitric acid gas and ammonium nitrate aerosol; and 8.22 (±6.81) minutes for ammonia, hydrochloric acid, and ammonium chloride. Significant correlations were determined between comparisons of equilibrium time constant estimates with meteorological parameters, such as ambient temperature and relative humidity. The predicted chemical compositions in the particle by EQUISOLV II Model are in good agreement with the observed chemical composition at the experimental site.     

Description and application of the EAP computer program for calculating life-cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of household consumption items

Focusing on reduction in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, a life-cycle-based analysis tool has been developed. The energy analysis program (EAP) is a computer program for determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption items, using a hybrid calculation method. EAP consists of a number of fill-in screens corresponding to steps in the hybrid method, which in their turn correspond to different stages in life-cycles of consumer goods. The database incorporated in EAP comprises data about energy use and emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄and N₂O) concerning materials, economic sectors, means of transport, etc. The use of the program in several projects showed the applicability and usefulness of EAP in research and policy. In this article, EAP is applied to food: French beans as a metaphor for fruit and vegetables.     

Probabilistic policy experiments: the use of energy economic environmental models in the climate change policy process

This paper uses the Edmonds-Reilly model to explore an alternative approach for using energy-economic-environmental models when analyzing future CO₂ emissions. This approach – conducting probabilistic policy experiments – can be used to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options in the context of uncertainty. The analysis builds on work by Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) and Edmonds et al. (1986). A key feature of using a probabilistic approach is that it offers both analysts and policy-makers an opportunity to move away from arguing about which scenario is the 'right', best-guess scenario, and towards a discussion of which strategies are effective across a wide range of possible futures. This paper both develops a methodology for conducting probabilistic policy experiments and presents the results of five preliminary experiments using this approach.     

The application of the RAINS model for Greece

In order to comply in 2010 with the emission ceilings proposed by European commission under the convention on transboundary air pollution, Greece has to develop and implement a cohesive strategy affecting all the sectors of the economy. The RAINS model was used for the evaluation of the environmental and economic impacts arising from the use of a number of control technologies under alternative energy scenarios. To this purpose a number of modifications regarding the input databases of RAINS were made. The analysis clearly reveals that the reduction of SO₂ emissions can be achieved in a lower cost compared to the reduction of NO_x emissions. Moreover, the complementarity of CO₂ abatement policies and the SO₂/NO_x abatement policies is also accented.     

Sensitivity analysis of the CERES-wheat model for variations in CO2 and meteorological factors in Northwest Turkey

Plant growth is very sensitive to variations in atmospheric factors. Possible effects of climate change on plant growth can be estimated and evaluated using the crop growth simulation models. In this study, the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model was applied to two consequent growing seasons (1997–1998 and 1998–1999) in order to determine the model sensitivity on the changes in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. In the model, the air temperature variations were applied from ±1°C up to ±2°C and CO₂ were changed in the range of 20% to 100%, while the solar radiation, precipitation were varied between 10% and 20%. Biomass and the grain yield of the wheat crop were influenced positively by the increased combination of the solar radiation, air temperature and CO₂. However, low crop responses to the variations in precipitation were unexpected.     

Options for Change in the Australian Energy Profile

Climate change is occurring largely as a result of increasing CO₂ emissions whose reduction requires greater efficiency in energy production and use and diversification of energy sources away from fossil fuels. These issues were central to the United Nation climate change discussions in Durban in December 2011 where it was agreed that a legally binding agreement to decrease greenhouse gas emissions should be reached by 2015. In the interim, nations were left with the agreement reached at the analogous 2009 Copenhagen and 2010 Cancun meetings that atmospheric CO₂ levels should be constrained to limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C. However, the route to this objective was largely left to individual nations to decide. It is within this context that options for reduction in the 95 % fossil fuel dependency and high CO₂ emissivity of the Australian energy profile using current technologies are considered. It is shown that electricity generation in particular presents significant options for changing to a less fossil fuel dependent and CO₂ emissive energy profile.     

Application of an ISCST3 model for predicting urban air pollution in the Izmir metropolitan area

A Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model, Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST3), was used to estimate ground-level concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emitted from source categories of industrial and domestic heating in the city of Izmir, Turkey. Predictions were estimated for the year 2000 across a study area of 80 km x 100 km. Statistical analyses were carried out to evaluate the model performance by comparing predicted and observed SO₂ concentrations at four ambient air quality monitoring stations using two main methods root mean square error (RMSE) and an index of agreement (d). The results showed that industry was found as the most air-polluting sector and industries located at outside of the metropolitan area were found to carry important risks for urban air quality. The most polluted area was found at a distance of about 1 km from a major petroleum refinery and a large petrochemical industry.     

A statistical model for predicting carbon monoxide levels

This paper presents a statistical model that is able to predict carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations as a function of meteorological conditions and various air quality parameters. The experimental work was conducted in an urban atmosphere, where the emissions from cars are prevalent. A mobile air pollution monitoring laboratory was used to collect data, which were divided into two groups: a development group and a testing group. Only the development dataset was used for developing the model. The model was determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. Thirteen independent variables were selected as inputs: non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC), methane (CH₄), suspended dust, carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity and solar energy. It was found that NO has the most effect on the predicted CO concentration. The contribution of NO to the CO concentration variations was 91.3%. Adding in the terms for NO₂), NMHC and CH₄ improved the model by only a further 2.3%. The derived model was shown to be statistically significant, and model predictions and experimental observations were shown to be consistent.     

Analysis of radioisotope concentrations in sediments using γ-ray spectrometry

The concentrations of some naturally occurring radioisotopes in sediments of the Kufranja river basin in Jordan were determined by means of γ-ray spectrometry with precise calibration of energy and efficiency. The nuclides' concentrations were found by either direct measurement of their activities, as in the case of ²²⁶Ra and ⁴⁰K, or through the measurements of the activities of their daughters with short half-lives, as in the case of ²³⁸U and ²³²Th. Furthermore, the hazard index, the radium equivalent activity and the absorbed dose rate for each of these nuclides had been calculated. It turned out that the concentrations of radioisotopes in sediments of the studied area were below the standard limits and the human effective dose equivalent ranged from 23.8 to 35.7 μSv/yr.     

The effect of BOD5 and flow-rate of activated sludge systems on investment and energy costs

In this study of wastewater treatment, the effect of flow-rate, BOD₅ and other design parameters (MLSS, mean cell-residence time, etc.) on aeration tank dimensions, investment amount and energy cost has been investigated. The relations among these parameters are represented with mathematical equations, which could be useful in new plant design and in the estimation of investment and energy costs.     

Air pollution at the Bily Kriz mountains in the Czech Republic

An evaluation of air pollution at the Bily Kriz mountains in the Czech Republic is given. Annual daily concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), particulate matter of size 10 mm (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃) measured in the years 1994–2000 are presented. Air pollution at Bily Kriz is assessed with the reference to the European Union Directives and the standards adopted by the Czech Republic. In general, the concentrations of air pollutants were lower in 1996 for ozone and decreased for SO₂, NO_x and PM₁₀ from 1994. The daily values of SO₂ and PM₁₀ exceeded the European Union limits in approximately 0.0% and 5.5% of cases, respectively. The values of ozone exceeded the limits for the considered period.     

Measurement of atmospheric particles and anionic species across central Taiwan

The ambient air concentrations and fluxes of various anionic species were sampled by MOUDI, TSP and dry deposition plates at a traffic sampling site in Taichung, central Taiwan. In the sampling period, from September to December 2000, the ambient air particle concentrations (PM₁, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and TSP) were lower in the September than in the other three months (October to December). The reason is that the northwest wind brought more particles (diameter less than 10 μm) and the higher wind speed caused higher dry deposition fluxes and TSP concentrations in the last three months. The anion species percentages of TSP were 0.24%, 13.7%, 0.52%, 12.0%, 18.9'% and 54.6% for F^-, Cl^-, Br^-, NO₂^-, NO₃^- and SO₄^2-, respectively. The results revealed that SO₄^2-, NO₃^-, Cl^- and NO₂^- were the dominant species at the traffic sampling site. The ion-size distributions of Cl^-, NO₂^- and NO₃^- were unimodal, the main peak being between 3.2 and 5.6 μm. In contrast, the size distribution of SO₄^2- was bimodal, with the main peaks in the particle size ranges 0.32.0.56 μm and 3.2.5.6 μm. The ambient average particle dry deposition flux was 6.28 μg/m2/s, and the dry deposition fluxes were 0.01, 94.6, 0.05, 34.7, 72.2 and 376.4 ng/m2/s for F^-, Cl^-, Br^-, NO₂^-, NO₃^- and SO₄^2-, respectively. The dry deposition velocities were 3.10, 0.03, 3.67, 0.05, 1.54, 2.03 and 3.67 cm/s for F^-, Cl^-, Br^-, NO₂^-, NO₃^- and SO₄^2-, respectively.