Avian Survival Rates and the Extinction Process on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Abstract: Selective extinction following isolation of habitat patches may be due to biogeographical (e.g., island size or isolation) and ecological (species natural histories, interspecifc interactions) factors, or their interactions. Among the demographic and life history attributes commonly associated with high extinction probability are small populations, large size of individuals, and population variability. Long-term capture-recapture data from forest habitat in central Panama permit an examination of the association between mainland survival rates and extinction on a nearby land-bridge island Species of birds that no longer occur on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, have, on average, lower survival rates on the adjacent mainland than species that have persisted on BCI. Moreover, of the species that no longer occur on BCI, those with lower mainland survival rates generally disappeared earlier from the island. My analysis provides little evidence of a relationship between extinction and population size. Recolonization of BCI from the adjacent mainland by the forest undergrowth species studied here is unlikely. Reduced reproductive success on BCI combined with naturally low adult survival rates seems to be responsible for these BCI extinctions. High nest predation and/or altered landscape dynamics are probable agents in the low reproductive success. The methods used here could be employed in other circumstances to identify fragmentation-sensitive species.     

Local Extinction of Dragonfly and Damselfly Populations in Low‐ and High‐Quality Habitat Patches

Abstract: Understanding the risk of extinction of a single population is an important problem in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, including population size, demographic or environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophe, or the loss of genetic diversity. The probability of local extinction may also be higher in low‐quality sink habitats than in high‐quality source habitats. We tested this hypothesis by comparing local extinction rates of 15 species of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) between 1930–1975 and 1995–2003 in central Finland. Local extinction rates were higher in low‐quality than in high‐quality habitats. Nevertheless, for the three most common species there were no differences in extinction rates between low‐ and high‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that a good understanding of habitat quality is crucial for the conservation of species in heterogeneous landscapes.     

Modeling the Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Source and Sink Demography of Neotropical Migrant Birds

Many songbird populations in the midwestem United States are structured as a network of sources and sinks that are linked by dispersal. We used a modeling approach to examine explicitly how populations respond to incremental fragmentation of source habitat and how this response may vary depending upon two life-history attributes: fidelity to natal habitat type and reproductive strength of the source. Fragmentation of source habitat led to a predictable decline in population for both attributes examined, but the manner in which populations declined varied depending upon the reproductive strength of the source and the level of fidelity. When the source was weak and produced few excess individuals, fragmentation of source habitats resulted in a predictable and parallel population decline of adults in both the source and the sink. In this situation high fidelity to natal habitats was important for maintenance of population size and structure. Low fidelity to weak sources resulted in population extinction; populations experienced a demographic cost by dispersing from high quality source habitat to low quality sink habitat. In contrast, when the source was strong and produced many excess individuals, fragmentation of the source led to population declines in both the source and the sink, but this decline was more abrupt in sink habitats. When the source was strong and produced a large excess of individuals, nonfidelity to natal habitats had little effect on metapopulation size and structure.     

Habitat Change and Plant Demography: Assessing the Extinction Risk of a Formerly Common Grassland Perennial

Abstract:  An important aim of conservation biology is to understand how habitat change affects the dynamics and extinction risk of populations. We used matrix models to analyze the effect of habitat degradation on the demography of the declining perennial plant Trifolium montanum in 9 calcareous grasslands in Germany over 4 years and experimentally tested the effect of grassland management. Finite population growth rates (λ) decreased with light competition, measured as leaf-area index above T. montanum plants. At unmanaged sites λ was <1 due to lower recruitment and lower survival and flowering probability of large plants. Nevertheless, in stochastic simulations, extinction of unmanaged populations of 100 flowering plants was delayed for several decades. Clipping as a management technique rapidly increased population growth because of higher survival and flowering probability of large plants in managed than in unmanaged plots. Transition-matrix simulations from these plots indicated grazing or mowing every second year would be sufficient to ensure a growth rate ≥1 if conditions stayed the same. At frequently grazed sites, the finite growth rate was approximately 1 in most populations of T. montanum . In stochastic simulations, the extinction risk of even relatively small grazed populations was low, but about half the extant populations of T. montanum in central Germany are smaller than would be sufficient for a probability of survival of >95% over 100 years. We conclude that habitat change after cessation of management strongly reduces recruitment and survival of established individuals of this perennial plant. Nevertheless, our results suggest extinction processes may take a long time in perennial plants, resulting in an extinction debt. Even if management is frequent, many remnant populations of T. montanum may be at risk because of their small size, but even a slight increase in size could considerably reduce their extinction risk.     

Source-Sink Models and the Problem of Habitat Degradation: General Models and Applications to the Yellowstone Grizzly

I used source-sink population models to explore the consequences of habitat degradation for populations living on good and degraded habitats linked by movement. In particular, I modeled the conversion of land from good habitat quality supporting positive population growth to a degraded condition in which there was population decline. I found that with high rates of movement between good and bad quality areas populations require relatively large amounts of good habitat to remain stable. However, low movement rates resulted in greater sensitivity of population growth to habitat loss. Even small amounts of habitat degradation could result in rapid changes in overall population growth rates depending upon the rates of population increase and decline in the two habitat types. I also developed and simulated an age-structured model for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) existing in good and degraded habitats and fit this model to data from the Yellowstone grizzly population. I used this model to predict the ability to detect crucial amounts of habitat degradation from census data and found that when degradation is slow (e.g., 1% conversion of good to poor habitat per year), more than a decade may pass between crucial amounts of degradation—beyond which populations begin long-term decline—and its detection, even if census data were unrealistically good. Thus these simple models indicate that, at least in some circumstances, habitat degradation can have rapid and severe impacts on population dynamics and traditional monitoring programs may not be adequate to detect the consequences of degradation.     

Exploring Population Dynamics Patterns in a Rare Fish, Zingel asper, through Capture-Mark-Recapture Methods

Abstract:  We performed a capture-mark-recapture study on one of the last populations of Zingel asper , an endemic percid species of the Rhône River basin in France. The distribution of Z. asper has decreased dramatically during the last century. We sampled three sites in suitable habitats in the Beaume River. No impact of individual tagging on survival was found. The demography of the population was analyzed using capture-recapture methods that allow the estimation of survival, recruitment, and demographic growth rates. Annual survival rates were low (0.35–0.50). The level of transience was high (5% to 25%), suggesting that a significant number of individuals were highly mobile or shifted to suboptimal habitats. Seniority rates suggested random highly variable recruitment between years. The three sites had similar variation patterns in all demographic parameters, indicating broad spatial covariation in population dynamics. We found some local differences in demographic parameters, which could be linked to local habitat quality. Individual tagging allowed for the estimation of demographic parameters that improved our understanding of Z. asper population dynamics and revealed mechanisms that may affect population persistence, such as stochastic recruitment, low survival, and frequent dispersal. The fragmentation of habitat through river damming inhibits dispersal and represents a threat to the persistence of Z. asper in the Rhône basin. Our results offer evidence of the importance of dispersal in nonmigratory fishes and confirm the usefulness of individual tagging methods in rare fish demography.     

Modeling the Effect of Population Dynamics on the Impact of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease

Abstract:  The European wild rabbit ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) is a staple prey species in Mediterranean ecosystems. The arrival and subsequent spread of rabbit hemorrhagic disease throughout southwestern Europe, however, has caused a decline in rabbit numbers, leading to considerable efforts to enhance wild rabbit populations, especially through habitat management. Because rabbit population dynamics depend on habitat suitability and changes in habitat structure and composition subsequent to habitat management, I evaluated the effects of population dynamics on the long-term impact of rabbit hemorrhagic disease on rabbit populations. I used an age-structured model with varying degrees of population productivity and turnover and different habitat carrying capacities, and I assumed the existence of a unique, highly pathogenic virus. My results suggest that disease impact may be highly dependent on habitat carrying capacity and rabbit population dynamics, and the model provided some insight into the current abundance of wild rabbits in different locations in southwestern Europe. The highest disease impact was estimated for populations located in habitats with low to medium carrying capacity. In contrast, disease impact was lower in high-density populations in habitats with high carrying capacity, corresponding to a lower mean age of rabbit infection and a resulting lower mortality from rabbit hemorrhagic disease. The outcomes of the model suggest that management strategies to help rabbit populations recover should be based on improving habitats to their maximum carrying capacity and increasing rabbit population productivity. In contrast, the use of strategies based on temporary increases in rabbit density, including vaccination campaigns, translocations, and temporal habitat improvements at medium carrying capacities, may increase disease impact, resulting in short-term decreases in rabbit population density.     

Habitat complexity modifies post-settlement mortality and recruitment dynamics of a marine fish

For species that have an open population structure, local population size may be strongly influenced by a combination of propagule supply and post-settlement survival. While it is widely recognized that supply of larvae (or recruits) is variable and that variable recruitment may affect the relative contribution of pre- and post-settlement factors, less effort has been made to quantify how variation in the strength of post-settlement mortality (particularly density-dependent mortality) will affect the importance of processes that determine population size. In this study, I examined the effects of habitat complexity on mortality of blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) within nearshore reefs off central California. I first tested whether variation in habitat complexity (measured as three-dimensional complexity of rocky substrate) affected the magnitude of both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. I then used limitation analysis to quantify how variation in habitat complexity alters the relative influence of recruitment, density-independent mortality, and density-dependent mortality in determining local population size. Increased habitat complexity was associated with a reduction in both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. At low levels of habitat complexity, limitation analysis revealed that mortality was strong and recruitment had relatively little influence on population size. However, as habitat complexity increased, recruitment became more important. At the highest levels of habitat complexity, limitation by recruitment was substantial, although density-dependent mortality was ultimately the largest constraint on population size. In high-complexity habitats, population dynamics may strongly reflect variation in recruitment even though fluctuations may be dampened by density-dependent mortality. By affecting both density-independent and density-dependent mortality, variation in habitat complexity may result in qualitative changes in the dynamics of populations. These findings suggest that the relative importance of pre- vs. post-settlement factors may be determined by quantifiable habitat features, rather than ambient recruitment level alone. Because the magnitude of recruitment fluctuations can affect species coexistence and the persistence of populations, habitat-driven changes in population dynamics may have important consequences for both community structure and population viability.     

A multispecies test of source–sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source–sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site‐ or habitat‐specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source–sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high‐output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source–sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data‐rich source–sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short‐term regional persistence. Because source–sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.     

Extinction Rates in Archipelagoes: Implications for Populations in Fragmented Habitats

To study the effect of habitat fragmentation on population viability, I used extinction rates on islands in archipelagoes and estimated the relative probability of extinction per species on single large islands and sets of smaller islands with the same total area. Data on lizards, birds, and mammals on oceanic islands and mammals on mountaintops and in nature reserves yield similar results. Species are likely to go extinct on all the small islands before they go extinct on the single, large island. In the short term, the analysis indicates that extinction probabilities may be lower on a set of small islands. This is perhaps an artifact due to underestimation of extinction rates on small islands and/or the necessity of pooling species in a focal taxon to obtain estimates of extinction rates (which may obscure area thresholds and underestimate the slope and curvature of extinction rates as a function of area). Ultimately, cumulative extinction probabilities are higher for a set of small islands than for single large islands. Mean and median times to extinction tend to be shorter in the fragmented systems, in some cases much shorter. Thus, to minimize extinction rates in isolated habitat remnants and nature reserve systems, the degree of fragmentation should be minimized     

Estimates of minimum patch size depend on the method of estimation and the condition of the habitat

Minimum patch size for a viable population can be estimated in several ways. The density-area method estimates minimum patch size as the smallest area in which no new individuals are encountered as one extends the arbitrary boundaries of a study area outward. The density-area method eliminates the assumption of no variation in density with size of habitat area that accompanies other methods, but it is untested in situations in which habitat loss has confined populations to small areas. We used a variant of the density area method to study the minimum patch size for the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) in Florida, USA, where this keystone species is being confined to ever smaller habitat fragments. The variant was based on the premise that individuals within populations are likely to occur at unusually high densities when confined to small areas, and it estimated minimum patch size as the smallest area beyond which density plateaus. The data for our study came from detailed surveys of 38 populations of the tortoise. For all 38 populations, the areas occupied were determined empirically, and for 19 of them, duplicate surveys were undertaken about a decade apart. We found that a consistent inverse density area relationship was present over smaller areas. The minimum patch size estimated from the density-area relationship was at least 100 ha, which is substantially larger than previous estimates. The relative abundance of juveniles was inversely related to population density for sites with relatively poor habitat quality, indicating that the estimated minimum patch size could represent an extinction threshold. We concluded that a negative density area relationship may be an inevitable consequence of excessive habitat loss. We also concluded that any detrimental effects of an inverse density area relationship may be exacerbated by the deterioration in habitat quality that often accompanies habitat loss. Finally, we concluded that the value of any estimate of minimum patch size as a conservation tool is compromised by excessive habitat loss.     

Local extinction of grassland plants: the landscape matrix is more important than patch attributes

Past studies of local extinctions in fragmented habitats most often tested the influence of fragment size and isolation while ignoring how differences in the surrounding landscape matrix may govern extinction. We assessed how both the spatial attributes of remnant patches (area and isolation) and landscape factors (extent of urbanization and maximum inter-fire interval) influence the persistence of native plant species in grasslands in western Victoria, Australia. Persistence was determined in 2001 by resurveying 30 remnants first surveyed in the 1980s, and correlates of extinction were assessed using Bayesian logistic regression models. On average, 26% of populations of native species became locally extinct over two decades. Area and isolation had little effect on the probability of local extinction, but urbanization and longer maximum inter-fire intervals increased extinction risk. These findings suggest that the native grasslands studied are relatively insensitive to area- and isolation-based fragmentation effects and that short-term persistence of plant populations requires the maintenance of habitat quality. The latter is strongly influenced by the landscape matrix surrounding remnant patches through changes in fire regimes and increased exogenous disturbance.     

Rapid Extinction of Mountain Sheep Populations Revisited

Abstract: Predicting extinction probabilities for populations of various sizes has been a primary focus of conservation biology. Berger (1990) presented an empirically based extinction model for mountain sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations in five southwestern states that predicted disappearance within 50 years of all populations estimated to number 50 sheep or fewer, but essentially no loss in that time period of populations estimated at over 100. The majority of the 122 populations he used in his analysis were from California, but his analysis did not use many of the historical size estimates for these populations. I tested Berger's (1990) model using the complete data set from California and found—contrary to his results—that, for all size classes of population estimates, at least 61% of the populations persisted for 50 years. Also, two predictions from Berger's model were not consistent with the data from California: (1) 10 populations have increased from estimates of 50 or fewer animals to over 100, whereas the Berger model predicted that these populations would only decline to extinction; and (2) of 27 extant populations with long enough records, 85% were estimated at least 50 years ago to be 50 individuals or fewer and should therefore be extinct by now. Berger's model has now failed tests in three states and therefore does not support the strong population size effect on extinction probability that it first appeared to provide, and it may serve conservation poorly through misdirected effort if it is used as the basis for setting policies or taking actions.     

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species.     

Genetic Diversity and Population Size in Four Rare Southern Appalachian Plant Species

Allozyme diversity was examined in four rare, high-montane plant species from the Appalachian Mountains of southeastern North America. These species may represent relictual members or descendants of an alpine community that was more widespread during the late Pleistocene. We sampled five populations of Geum radiatum (Rosaceae), Carex misera (Cyperaceae), Trichophorum cespitosum (Cyperaceae), and the four known populations of Calamagrostis cainii (Poaceae). Genetic diversity was low for all species but was typical of that found for plant species with limited ranges. Low genetic diversity may reflect historical events associated with changes in the species' biogeography. As the Pleistocene climate warmed, suitable habitat decreased in areal extent and became fragmented, probably resulting in smaller, more-isolated populations. In recent times these species, which co-occur in fragile rock outcrop habitats, have been adversely affected by human activities. Genetic analyses revealed reduced diversity in populations of decreasing size for three species. Estimates of gene flow were low ( Nm < 1.0) in all four species. Positive associations between genetic diversity and population size, evidence of recent population declines, and the low estimates of gene flow suggest that genetic drift may play a prominent role in shaping the present-day genetic composition of these species. Furthermore, these data suggest that the genetically depauperate populations are unlikely to regain genetic variation without human intervention.     

Effects of Recent Environmental Change on Accuracy of Inferences of Extinction Status

Correctly classifying a species as extinct or extant is of critical importance if current rates of biodiversity loss are to be accurately quantified. Observing an extinction event is rare, so in many cases extinction status is inferred using methods based on the analysis of records of historic sighting events. The accuracy of such methods is difficult to test. However, results of recent experiments with microcosm communities suggest that the rate at which a population declines to extinction, potentially driven by varying environmental conditions, may alter one's ability accurately to infer extinction status. We tested how the rate of population decline, driven by historic environmental change, alters the accuracy of 6 commonly applied sighting‐based methods used to infer extinction. We used data from small‐scale experimental communities and recorded wild population extirpations. We assessed how accuracy of the different methods was affected by rate of population decline, search effort, and number of sighting events recorded. Rate of population decline and historic population size of the species affected the accuracy of inferred extinction dates; however, faster declines produced more accurate inferred dates of extinction, but only when population sizes were higher. Optimal linear estimation (OLE) offered the most reliable and robust estimates, though no single method performed best in all situations, and it may be appropriate to use a different method if information regarding historic search efforts is available. OLE provided the most accurate estimates of extinction when the number of sighting events used was >10, and future use of this method should take this into account. Data from experimental populations provide added insight into testing techniques to discern wild extirpation events. Care should be taken designing such experiments so that they mirror closely the abundance dynamics of populations affected by real‐world extirpation events. Efectos del Cambio Ambiental Reciente sobre la Precisión de las Inferencias sobre el Estado de Extinción     

Risk of Local Extinction of Odonata Freshwater Habitat Generalists and Specialists

Understanding the risk of a local extinction in a single population relative to the habitat requirements of a species is important in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, such as habitat requirements, range size of species, and habitat quality. We studied the local extinctions among 31 dragonfly and damselfly species from 1930 to 1975 and from 1995 to 2003 in Central Finland. We tested whether habitat specialists had a higher local extinction rate than generalist species. Approximately 30% of the local dragonfly and damselfly populations were extirpated during the 2 study periods. The size of the geographical range of the species was negatively related to extinction rate of the local populations. In contrast to our prediction, the specialist species had lower local extinction rates than the generalist species, probably because generalist species occurred in both low‐ and high‐quality habitat. Our results are consistent with source–sink theory. Riesgo de Extinción Local de Odonatos de Agua Dulce Generalistas y Especialistas de Hábitat     

Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.     

Fragmentation of Phragmites Habitats, Minimum Viable Population Size, Habitat Suitability, and Local Extinction of Moths, Midges, Flies, Aphids, and Birds

Results from populations of insects and birds inhabiting Phragmites habitats were used to analyze effects of fragmentation. Flush-crash cycles of the stem-boring moth Archanara geminipuncta (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) showed regionally concurrent, local extinctions despite an originally enormous population size (more than 180,000 adults), emphasizing the importance of metapopulation dynamics. Further, A. geminipuncta could be considered a keystone species, since shoot damage facilitated more than twenty species of herbivores, saprovores (of the caterpillars' feces), and their parasitoids. The gall midge Lasioptera arundinis could survive only in side shoots induced by shoot damage of A. geminipuncta .
Small Phragmites stands had thinner shoots (due to a water or nutrient deficiency) and shoots with more leaves (due to a better light supply) than large stands, thereby influencing species-specific demands for habitat suitability and nutritiousness of reed tissue. In other words significance of habitat fragmentation could not be assessed by area alone. For example, two chloropid flies depending on thin, yellowish shoots survived only in small habitats or in the unmown edges of large habitats.
Local persistence of Phragmites herbivores depended on much larger population sizes than could be expected from a population size sufficient to maintain genetic variation. At least 11,000 adults of the gall midge Giraudiella inclusa (or more than 84,000 galls) were necessary to avoid local extinction.
With regard to conservation management of reed habitats, nature reserves should consist of old and unmown reeds, have fewer disturbed (particularly, fewer mown) habitat edges, measure more than two hectares (priority should go to the largest remaining fragments), and be surrounded by nearby reed habitats providing reservoir populations and diverse shoot types.     

Modeling biodiversity dynamics in countryside landscapes

The future of biodiversity hinges to a great extent on the conservation value of countryside, the growing fraction of Earth's surface heavily influenced by human activities. How many species, and which species, can persist in such landscapes (and analogous seascapes) are open questions. Here we explore two complementary theoretical frameworks to address these questions: species-area relationships and demographic models. We use the terrestrial mammal fauna of Central America to illustrate the application of both frameworks. We begin by proposing a multi-habitat species-area relationship, the countryside species-area relationship, to forecast species extinction rates. To apply it, we classify the mammal fauna by affinity to native and human-dominated habitats. We show how considering the conservation value of countryside habitats changes estimates derived from the classic species-area approach We also examine how the z value of the species-area relationship affects extinction estimates. Next, we present a framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to extinction in the countryside, based on the Skellam model of population dynamics. This model predicts the minimum area of contiguous native habitat required for persistence of a species, which we use as an indicator of vulnerability to habitat change. To apply the model, we use our habitat affinity classification of mammals and we estimate life-history parameters by species and habitat type. The resulting ranking of vulnerabilities is significantly correlated with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List assessment.