WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Single‐Family Residential Water Use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Studies that evaluate determinants of residential water demand typically use data from a single spatial scale. Although household‐scale data are preferred, especially when econometric models are used, researchers may be limited to aggregate data. There is little, if any, empirical analysis to assess whether spatial scale may lead to ecological fallacy problems in residential water use research. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we compare the results for the relationship of single‐family water use with its determinants using data from the household and census tract scales in the city of Phoenix. Model results between the household and census tract scale are similar suggesting the ecological fallacy may not be significant. Common significant determinants on these two spatial scales include household size, household income, house age, pool size, irrigable lot size, precipitation, and temperature. We also use city/town scale data from the Phoenix metropolitan area to parameterize the linear mixed‐effects model. The difference in the parameter estimates of those common variables compared to the first two scales indicates there is spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between single‐family water use and its determinants among cities and towns. The negative relationship between single‐family house density and residential water use suggests that residential water consumption could be reduced through coordination of land use planning and water demand management.     

WATER USE REDUCTIONS FROM RETROFIHNG INDOOR WATER FIXTURES1

ABSTRACT: A water use model was developed to estimate water savings from installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices in residential housing. The model measures household water use in per capita terms with adjustments for age of occupants, household income, if occupants responsible for direct payment of water bill, and type of water fixtures. Detailed data on 308 single family residences involved with a pilot retrofit program in the Seattle, Washington, area were analyzed. We estimated per capita indoor water use to decline by 6.4 and 2.1 percent from complete installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices, respectively.     

ECONOMIC RESOURCE MULTIPLIERS FOR REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Tradeoffs between regional economic development and resource use is a question often confronting local decisionmakers. A resource-interindustry model can be used to depict the interrelationships between regional economic sectors as to household income and/or employment and resource use. A resource-interindustry model was developed for Humboldt and Lander Counties in Nevada which shows the tradeoffs between regional household income (wages, salaries, profits, and rents) and/or employment and water usage. Water income and water employment multipliers can be ranked, enabling decisionmakers to realize sectors which require greatest regional water usage to regional household income and/or employment.     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective1

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., 2011. Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3): 550‐562. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00549.x Abstract: Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water‐related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land‐use or land‐cover changes, water engineering measures, and in‐catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water‐related variables.     

A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management1

Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x Abstract: This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.     

Willingness to pay for safe drinking water: Evidence from Parral, Mexico

A referendum-format contingent valuation (CV) survey is used to elicit household willingness to pay responses for safe and reliable drinking water in Parral, Mexico. Households currently adopt a variety of averting and private investment choices (e.g., bottled water consumption, home-based water treatment, and installation of water storage facilities) to adapt to the existing water supply system. These revealed behaviors indicate the latent demand for safer and more reliable water services, which is corroborated by the CV survey evidence. Validity findings include significant scope sensitivity in WTP for water services. Further, results indicate that households are willing to pay from 1.8% to 7.55% of reported household income above their current water bill for safe and reliable drinking water services, depending upon the assumptions about response uncertainty.     

Water Dispatch Model for Middle Route of a South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project in China1

Chang, Jian‐xia, Yi‐min Wang, and Qiang Huang, 2011. Water Dispatch Model for Middle Route of a South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project in China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):70‐80. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00478.x Abstract: The objective of this paper is to present a simulation model to address the water dispatch problem of the south‐to‐north water transfer project for the Middle Route system in China. Reasonable rules and a system network structure are established. This model consists of five modules: (1) a data‐processing module, (2) an initial control module, (3) a multisource simulation dispatch module, (4) a system identification module, and (5) a revision module. Water allocated to each province and city along the route is obtained by simulation, and the long‐term operation results show that water supply reliabilities are significantly improved if the transferred water is jointly dispatched with the local water resources.     

Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest1

Huang, Biao, Christian Langpap, and Richard M. Adams, 2011. Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):861‐876. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00562.x Abstract: Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the potential usefulness of short‐term (7 to 10 days) water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may be valuable if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases from Lewiston Dam for management of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding opportunity cost of water under different levels of temperature forecast reliability. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline as forecast reliability increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have potential value to society.     

Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests1

Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143‐157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00498.x Abstract: The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate‐driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water‐rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska’s relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long‐term resilience.     

Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods1

Waage, Marc D. and Laurna Kaatz, 2011. Nonstationary Water Planning: An Overview of Several Promising Planning Methods. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):535‐540. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00547.x Abstract: Climate change is challenging the way water utilities plan for the future. Observed warming and climate model projections now call into question the stability of future water quantity and quality. As water utilities cope with preparing for the large range of possible changes in climate and the resulting impacts on their water systems, many are searching for planning techniques to help them consider multiple possible conditions to better prepare for a different, more uncertain, future. Many utilities need these techniques because they cannot afford to delay significant decisions while waiting for scientific improvements to narrow the range of potential climate change impacts. Several promising methods are being tested in water utility planning and presented here for other water utilities to consider. The methods include traditional scenario planning, classic decision making, robust decision making, real options, and portfolio planning. Unfortunately, for utilities vulnerable to climate change impacts, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all planning solution. Every planning process must be tailored to the needs and capabilities of the individual utility.     

Re-examining the water affordability: A comparison of alternative measures

Water affordability is determined by the percentage of income households that must allocate to municipal water services, while factoring in essential or basic needs water use. With the rise in water prices reported in most areas of the country along with somewhat stagnant income growth—a combination that suggests ceteris paribus—more of a household's disposable income is being spent on water services. This paper adds to the discussion in three ways. First, given the lack of a consistent definition for “affordability” and the subjective connotation associated with such a term, we develop and compare five different water expenditure ratios, including two different measures of water for essential needs, as well as measures for indoor, efficient, and actual water use. Second, because of the granularity of our data, we illustrate how such “affordability” measures can vary significantly within a water district and thus highlight how using district- or county-level income measures can mask the degree to which affordability is an issue for households living in low-income block groups. Our results indicate that the choice of income measure and type of water service use can influence affordability measures substantially.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

THE EFFECTWENESS OF PRICING AS A STAND-ALONE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Economic theory clearly indicates that the use of increasing rate structures will reduce the demand for water and produce monetary incentives for consumers to conserve. One problem with estimating the effectiveness of using rate structures as a conservation program is that they are usually accompanied by other conservation efforts. Thus, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of any one conservation component. This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing rate structures in a situation where no other conservation program was introduced. The paper uses customer data from the Spalding County (Georgia) Water Authority where an increasing rate structure replaced a descending rate structure in January 1991. Since the imposition of the increasing rate structure, the number of customers has increased 21 percent while total water demand has gone up only 15 percent and per customer water use has declined 5 percent. The daily water use per connection has declined from 243 gallons in 1990 to 231 in 1993, and monthly use has gone from 7,381 gallons to 7,028 per connection over the same period. Statistical tests indicate that water consumption during the two periods was significantly different while weather factors were not.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF DROUGHT POLICIES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER MANAGEMENT1

During the 1976–77 drought, three principal mechanisms were used to reduce water use in Utah communities: price increases, maximum monthly use restrictions, and restrictions on outdoor watering times. A regression model was developed to explain observed changes in water use, with price, type of restriction, household size, and summer rainfall as independent variables. For an average system, a 1 percent increase in price would reduce water use by 0.07 to 0.09 percent. A 1 percent increase in outdoor watering time restriction reduces use by 0.064 to 0.075 percent. A 1 percent increase in quantity restrictions leads to a reduction in water use of 0.014 to 0.054 percent. The effectiveness of rationing policies is influenced by system characteristics. For example, outdoor watering time restrictions were less effective in systems with above average household size and below average monthly use.     

Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda1

Rowe, Mark P., 2011. Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1219–1227. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00563.x Abstract: Roof‐top rain water harvesting is mandated by law for all buildings in Bermuda and is the primary source of water for domestic supply. The average rate at which rain water is harvested at the typical house with four occupants is, however, insufficient to meet average demand. While just over one‐third of households have access to supplementary water either from mains pipelines or private wells, the majority rely on deliveries from water “truckers” (tankers) to augment their rain water supply. Assuming a reasonably constant daily demand, there is a linear relationship between the “maximum optimum capacity” of a water storage tank and the size of the rain water catchment area, which depends on the characteristics of the rainfall at a given geographic location. A simple spreadsheet model was developed to simulate tank storage levels for various combinations of catchment area, tank capacity, and demand, with an input of actual daily rainfall data for a study period of nearly three years. It was found that for typical cycles of rainfall surpluses and deficits in Bermuda, the tank capacity which there is no benefit in exceeding — the “optimum maximum capacity”— is 0.37 m³ of storage capacity per 1 m² of catchment area. Furthermore, it was concluded that many domestic water storage tanks in Bermuda are larger than necessary, especially so where there is a significant imbalance between rain water supply and demand.