A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects

A data worth model is presented for the analysis of alternative sampling schemes in a special project where decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This model is part of a comprehensive risk analysis algorthm with the acronym BUDA. The statistical framework in BUDA is Bayesian in nature and incorporates both parameter uncertainty and natural variability. In BUDA a project iterates among the analyst, the decision maker, and the field work. As part of the analysis, a data worth model calculates the value of a data campaign before the actual field work, thereby allowing the identification of an optimum data collection scheme. A goal function which depicts the objectives of a project is used to discriminate among different alternatives. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme is used to propagate parameter uncertainties to the goal function. In our example the uncertain parameters are the parameters which describe the geostatistical properties of saturated hydraulic conductivity in a Molasse environment. Our results indicated that failing to account for parameter uncertainty produces unrealistically optimistic results, while ignoring the spatial structure can lead to an inefficient use of the existing data.     

A two-stage cyclone using microcentrifuge tubes for personal bioaerosol sampling

Personal aerosol samplers are widely used to monitor human exposure to airborne materials. For bioaerosols, interest is growing in analyzing samples using molecular and immunological techniques. This paper presents a personal sampler that uses a two-stage cyclone to collect bioaerosols into disposable 1.5 ml Eppendorf-type microcentrifuge tubes. Samples can be processed in the tubes for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or immunoassays, and the use of multiple stages fractionates aerosol particles by aerodynamic diameter. The sampler was tested using fluorescent microspheres and aerosolized fungal spores. The sampler had first and second stage cut-off diameters of 2.6 microm and 1.6 microm at 2 l min(-1)(geometric standard deviation, GSD = 1.45 and 1.75), and 1.8 microm and 1 microm at 3.5 l min(-1)(GSD = 1.42 and 1.55). The sampler aspiration efficiency was >or=98% at both flow rates for particles with aerodynamic diameters of 3.1 microm or less. For 6.2 microm particles, the aspiration efficiency was 89% at 2 l min(-1) and 96% at 3.5 l min(-1). At 3.5 l min(-1), the sampler collected 92% of aerosolized Aspergillus versicolor and Penicillium chrysogenum spores inside the two microcentrifuge tubes, with less than 0.4% of the spores collecting on the back-up filter. The design and techniques given here are suitable for personal bioaerosol sampling, and could also be adapted to design larger aerosol samplers for longer-term atmospheric and indoor air quality sampling.     

Scaling methods in assessing environmental quality: A methodological approach to eutrophication

The identification of pollution levels by numerical classification-ordination and the statistical confirmation of the detected trends-were attempted in a eutrophication assessment study. Special emphasis was placed on the importance of data scaling and the selection of a distance coefficient that would accentuate discrete states within the system. Among metric, binary and ordinal variable scaling, ordinal numbers showed the maximum sensitivity in discriminating pollution levels; the observed trends were further enhanced by using the absolute distance coefficient as a resemblance measure. The eutrophic patterns identified were statistically confirmed by a non-parametric permutation test. Finally a step-by-step multivariate procedure is proposed for assessing environmental quality in aquatic ecosystems.     

Microeconomic measurement of the social costs of environmental regulation

This paper provides a coherent microeconomic framework for defining and measuring the social costs of environmental regulations. A fundamental identity between two alternative means of measuring social costs is established and used to illustrate how erroneous methodologies have crept into the impact assessment literature. Several interesting cases of “ripple effects” including those related to the siting of hazardous waste disposal facilities are considered using this identity.     

A novel approach to rapid detection of acute water toxicity and its policy implications for grassroots sustainable environmental monitoring

Unknown chemicals, emerging contaminants, and the resulting reactions among them make early detection and warning of acute water toxicity extremely challenging. The conventional approach using small fish for toxicity monitoring normally requires a designated species of fish and over a week's time to complete, including dilution of the wastewater, a pre-test, and a full test. It often increases chances for error and delays emergency management. This paper reports a novel approach, based on grassroots knowledge and field and lab experience in Jilin, China. This approach uses a combination of different species of aquarium fish to achieve fast and reliable monitoring. It tests the original source water directly without going through the dilution procedure, while paying attention to the time factor. The approach does not require a pre-test and may shorten the time needed for detecting acute toxicity to a few minutes, using a new classification of aquatic toxicity levels. It is inexpensive to use and may be easily adopted by grassroots organizations. The approach is "greener" and more financially and socially sustainable than traditional approaches. The wide use of the approach has the potential to encourage policy innovations for making toxicity monitoring grassroots based and more effective in reducing acute contamination emergencies.     

Comparative environmental impact and efficiency assessment of selected hydrogen production methods

The environmental impacts of various hydrogen production processes are evaluated and compared, considering several energy sources and using life cycle analysis. The results indicate that hydrogen produced by thermochemical water decomposition cycles are more environmentally benign options compared to conventional steam reforming of natural gas. The nuclear based four-step Cu–Cl cycle has the lowest global warming potential (0.559 kg CO₂-eq per kg hydrogen production), mainly because it requires the lowest quantity of energy of the considered processes. The acidification potential results show that biomass gasification has the highest impact on environment, while wind based electrolysis has the lowest. The relation is also investigated between efficiency and environmental impacts.     

Long-term environmental monitoring for assessment of change: measurement inconsistencies over time and potential solutions

The importance of long-term environmental monitoring and research for detecting and understanding changes in ecosystems and human impacts on natural systems is widely acknowledged. Over the last decades, a number of critical components for successful long-term monitoring have been identified. One basic component is quality assurance/quality control protocols to ensure consistency and comparability of data. In Norway, the authorities require environmental monitoring of the impacts of the offshore petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf, and in 1996, a large-scale regional environmental monitoring program was established. As a case study, we used a sub-set of data from this monitoring to explore concepts regarding best practices for long-term environmental monitoring. Specifically, we examined data from physical and chemical sediment samples and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages from 11 stations from six sampling occasions during the period 1996–2011. Despite the established quality assessment and quality control protocols for this monitoring program, we identified several data challenges, such as missing values and outliers, discrepancies in variable and station names, changes in procedures without calibration, and different taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, we show that the use of different laboratories over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions with regard to some of the observed changes. We offer recommendations to facilitate comparison of data over time. We also present a new procedure to handle different taxonomic resolution, so valuable historical data is not discarded. These topics have a broader relevance and application than for our case study.     

The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators.     

Estimating transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative countries: An integrated approach of modified three-stage epsilon-based measurement model

Transportation systems are vital links for intercountry. However, the transportation industry is associated with high energy consumption and carbon emissions. In this paper, the transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 2005–2017 is estimated by modifying a three-stage epsilon-based measurement model, and the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) is identified. Based on the results, countries are classified into four categories by comparing a country's TCE and CERP with the average of all BRI countries. The results show that the average TCE of BRI countries is only 0.341, while their average CERP is 0.750, which is tremendous. It also shows that the higher the income levels, the more prone countries are to have a higher TCE. By considering the differences among the countries' environmental factors, TCEs, and the current state or trends of the CERPs, customized low-carbon policies are proposed to increase the TCE and reduce emissions.     

Ultracentrifugation as a direct method to concentrate viruses in environmental waters: virus-like particle enumeration as a new approach to determine the efficiency of recovery

Some health important enteric viruses are considered to be emerging waterborne pathogens and so the improvement of detection of these viruses in the aquatic environment is one of the most important steps in dealing with these pathogens. Since these viruses may be present in low numbers in water, it is necessary to concentrate water samples before viral detection. Although there are several methods to concentrate viruses in environmental waters, all present some drawbacks and consequently the method should be chosen that, despite its limitations, is adequate to achieve the aim of each study. As the effectiveness of the concentration methods is evaluated by determining the efficiency of viral recovery after concentration, it is important to use a simple and effective approach to evaluate their recovery efficiency. In this work ultracentrifugation, usually used as a secondary step for virus concentration, was evaluated as the main method to concentrate directly viruses in environmental water samples, using the microscopic enumeration of virus-like particles (VLP) as a new approach to estimate the efficiency of recovery. As the flocculation method is currently employed to concentrate viruses in environmental waters, it was also used in this study to assess the efficiency of the ultracentrifugation as the main viral concentration method in environmental waters. The results of this study indicate that ultracentrifugation is an adequate approach to concentrate viruses directly from environmental waters (recovery percentages between 66 and 72% in wastewaters and between 66 and 76% in recreational waters) and that the determination of VLP by epifluorescence microscopy is a simple, fast and cheap alternative approach to determine the recovery efficiency of the viral concentration methods.     

A novel environmental indicator for monitoring of pesticides

The identification of an indicator for monitoring pesticides is a very effective analytical approach because it allows one to schedule and simplify the analytical routine. In this study, a new indicator has been designed, which has to be able to define a scale of priorities in the pesticides monitoring. A starting equation was developed involving the escaping tendency of a given substance from a phase (based on the Mackay model I level). The reliability of the indicator was tested by application to a model system, consisting of a defined and limited area, choosing water as matrix over a period of 6 years. A group of marker compounds was also defined to implement the predictive efficacy of the indicator. The results obtained by modeling were compared to those obtained by experimentation of the same model system. The indicator was subsequently and appropriately modified creating a new equation, including a kinetic factor, which considers the environmental degradation processes. The effect of the rectified indicator was consistent with the sales data list of compounds, when applied to the markers. The indicator developed in this study, tested as a model on specific area-phase-period (Province of Siena, water phase, 2000?C2006), is applicable to any other area-phase-period, adjusting the partition value of the Mackay model for the case under study.     

Influence of environmental parameters on the accuracy of nitrogen dioxide passive diffusion tubes for ambient measurement

Two studies at three sites in the UK provided confirmation that systematic positive bias in NO2 diffusion tube measurement occurred because of changes to "within-tube" chemistry, rather than eddy diffusion at the mouth of the tube. In the first study in Cambridge, UK, sampler overestimation for 1 and 2 week exposures was compared to corresponding time-averaged monitor measurements (NO-NO2-NOx, O3) and weather variables. Noninearity between sampler and monitor NO2 measurements was interpreted in terms of spatial and temporal variations in relative and absolute availability of NO, NO2 and O3 at the site. A maximum overestimation occurred for an exposure mean NO2/NOx approximately 0.5. The separate contributions of reduced NO2 photolysis and eddy diffusion were compared in Study II using samplers of two materials, acrylic and quartz, and of different lengths (40, 55, 71 and 120 mm) at three sites: Norwich background, Cambridge intermediate, London kerbside. For compared sites, NO2 measured by acrylic samplers was significantly higher than for equivalent quartz samplers. For quartz samplers [NO2]mean was only just above the monitor at Norwich and London; sampler/monitor NO2 = 1.04 (P = 0.59) and 1.01(P = 0.76), respectively. For acrylic samplers the order of [NO2]mean was 40 mm > 120 mm > 71 mm > or = 55 mm. Excepting 40 mm samplers, this accords with a chemical bias where co-diffusing NO and 03 molecules in longer tubes have more time to react to form excess NO2. Bias in 40 mm samplers is discussed. Eddy diffusion is negligible for standard samplers because [NO2]mean was equivalent for 55 mm and 71 mm acrylic samplers and close to monitor NO2 for 71 mm quartz tubes. Both studies showed that sampler accuracy was dependent on location. Significantly, overestimation was greatest (approximately 3-4 ppb) where the NO2 annual mean was approximately 20 ppb, close to the UK and EU air quality standard of 21 ppb.     

A hierarchical approach for desertification assessment

Environmental systems are complex and multi-scaled open systems. To understand land degradation, one has to consider the interactions between landscape patterns and environmental processes at different scales. Patterns and processes in the landscape are perceived to be organized in nested hierarchical structures. To study land degradation in this context, a coupled top-bottom/bottom-up approach was developed. The top-bottom landscape analysis is aimed at identifying landscape systems at different scales. The bottom-up analysis focuses on system dynamics at finer scales. Applied in a study in central Spain, the approach is aimed at understanding the functional differences between three types of degraded seminatural slopes at different scales. Six levels of organization were distinguished: ped-level, terracette-level, hummock-level, slope part-level, slope level, and watershed level. Properties that characterize these levels were selected for different disciplines. The bottom-up analysis focused on water movement at different spatial scales. Successfully applying this approach revealed the importance for land degradation of the close linkage between spatial patterns and hydrological processes at different spatial scales. Identifying constraining and dynamic indicators related to water conservation at different scales can be useful for assessing desertification.     

Long-term monitoring for environmental change in U.S. National Parks a watershed approach

The U.S. National Park Service (NPS) is faced with direct questions about the condition of Park natural resources. The watershed approach to long-term monitoring of natural, and remote areas within the National Parks has provided important data for detecting both spacial and temporal changes in environmental conditions. These data collections allow the partitioning of cause and effect relationships of ecological change within a given watershed. They also serve to meet both reference and early warning objectives. Success in advancing a number of acid precipitation goals has demonstrated the usefulness of these integrated watershed data for inter-ecosystem comparison and for analogy between watersheds. The watershed program owing to the NPS experience is proposed as a model for focusing the National Park Service's inventory and monitoring program inititiative. This approach provides to park researchers and resources managers the needed tools for dealing with today's complex local, regional and global natural resources issues.     

以酵母菌作为敏感材料的BOD生物传感器研究

以一株耐高渗透压的酵母菌种作为敏感材料 ,研制的的生物传感器可采用稳态呼吸速率法进行 BOD快速测定。该方法与广为采用的五天生化需氧量标准稀释测定法有良好的相关性 ,线性范围为 0～ 2 0 0 mg/ L,可在 1 5 min内完成一个样品 BOD的测定。测定结果具有良好的重现性和准确度 ,标准曲线的线性相关系数达到 0 .9987     

Accounting for intracultural variability in first nation environmental knowledge: A requisite for environmental monitoring and impact assessments

In many environmental monitoring and impact assessment processes, Indigenous communities are treated as intellectually homogenous and intracultural variation in environmental knowledge often goes unaccounted for. This not only poses obvious risks to the effectiveness of environmental impact assessments but also gives standing to those who question the credibility of traditional ecological knowledge and its contribution to environmental monitoring and assessment programs altogether. In this paper we describe the steps that were taken to account for intracultural variability in First Nation knowledge of fish and the potential impacts associated with the Peace River oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. Involving the delivery of a household survey to 1,127 First Nation households in 11 Peace River communities, our approach was successful in identifying regional, community, and household variability in fishing activity, and has allowed us to differentiate novice from expert knowledge holders. This research demonstrates the need to account for intracultural variability in First Nations environmental knowledge in order for traditional ecological knowledge to make meaningful contributions to environmental monitoring and assessment programs.     

环境质量评价中关键因子识别的方法研究

应用投影寻踪聚类方法分析环境影响指标的数据资料 ,不但可以根据数据内在特性确定各评价指标的相对权重 ,避免权重人为给定的任意性 ,而且还可以通过逐次筛选找出影响环境质量的关键因子。本文将该方法成功地应用于南京市秦淮河水环境评价中 ,筛选出了影响秦淮河水质的关键因子 ,可供秦淮河水环境监测和治理作参考。另一方面 ,该方法还可以推广应用于其它类似问题的综合分析研究中。