基于PERT图的LMRP集油罩深水井喷应急作业设计

底部隔水管总成(LMRP)集油罩可高效回收深水井喷海底漏油,为有效支持应急演练和事故现场救援的开展,基于计划评审技术(PERT)进行LMRP集油罩应急作业设计。面向1500m水深事故场景,将LMRP集油罩作业分为15项子作业并编制应急作业PERT图,计算LMRP集油罩应急作业在不同规定期限内的完成概率。结果表明:PERT图可直观定量描述深水井喷应急作业,得到LMRP集油罩作业关键路线总时长为575h并给出作业优化建议。LMRP集油罩作业在规定期限45、50、55、60、65、70h内完成的概率分别为00002、00174、02420、07580、09826和09998。随着规定期限时间延长,应急作业完成概率提高,且在关键路线总时长附近增长率最大。     

南海海域应急资源存储选址及调度方案研究

南海油气田的勘探开发属高风险作业。由于复杂的作业环境，现有研究成果无法满足南海探区的应急保障。因此，如何解决南海作业的应急工作问题是目前面临的首要问题。考虑南海特有的作业环境影响，以应急响应时间最小化及调度资源满意度最优化为目标函数，建立了一种基于浮式码头的多作业点、多供应点、多需求点的多目标优化模型，采用设计的混合启发式算法对其求解。以油气泄漏为例，定量分析了南海特有土台风在不同季节的影响权重，并对模型进行了验证。结果表明，在外部环境具有显著差异的情况下，资源存储地选址-调度的应急决策方案不同。所选择的目标探区中夏季和秋季更适合进行南海勘探作业。此外，根据不同季节应急点资源需求量的变化，同一锚泊点在不同季节具有不同的资源储备数量，决策者需根据作业时间窗按照应急需求合理配置应急资源。所得结果证实了模型及方法的有效性和可行性。     

井场作业人员应急疏散仿真研究

为了研究石油天然气开采作业过程中发生井喷或一氧化碳和硫化氢泄漏等突发事件时井场作业人员的应急疏散规律,以压裂作业为例,采用社会力模型,建立压裂井场模型,将压裂作业中压裂队、试油队和射孔队等作业人员按照常规工作区域分为5组,模拟了井喷失控时压裂井场作业人员撤离至应急集中区域的应急疏散过程。研究结果表明:仿真计算可以间接反映作业人员的真实疏散水平,可评估应急疏散效果;砂罐车附近的作业人员疏散用时最短,液灌附近的作业人员疏散用时最长,在通过狭窄区域时出现了拥堵现象。仿真计算结果可为井场设施摆放、临时房屋建设、应急集中区域选择等井场布置工作提供参考,可用于指导合理应急疏散方案的制订。     

基于DEMATEL/ISM的深水井喷风险影响因素研究*

为提高深水井喷事故风险管理水平,提出研究深水井喷风险影响因素的分析方法。从技术、人员、环境和管理4个方面,识别深水井喷事故风险致因因素,建立深水井喷事故风险评价指标体系;运用矩阵决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）,研究风险因素之间的相互影响关系,计算不同风险因素的中心度和原因度,确定关键风险因素;进一步基于解释结构模型（ISM）划分不同影响因素的层次结构,分析风险因素之间的综合影响关系,建立深水井喷事故风险影响因素模型。结果表明:层级1为近邻致因,可直接导致井喷事故的发生;层级2~7为过渡致因,在风险传递过程中起到桥梁作用,对井喷事故的直接影响较小;而层级8则为本质致因,重视本质致因的改善有利于从根源上降低井喷事故的风险。研究结果可为深水井喷事故风险的预防和控制提供理论依据。     

医疗应急物资车辆配送优化调度时间窗模型研究

为快速、高效地对应急物资进行合理的调度,综合考虑突发事件发生后,以最少配送车辆数目及配送通路为目标,构建1套完整的应急配送车辆调度模型,使得应急物资能在各需求点要求的时间窗内完成配送;利用Matlab进行编码设计求解模型,并通过仿真分析,设计考虑时间窗影响的应急物资优化调度方案,最后通过实例验证.结果 表明:本文模型既...     

基于时间-逻辑维度的公路施工应急能力指标体系构建

借鉴了时间维和逻辑维的应急能力指标体系,采用了硬系统方法论和层次分析G_1法将时间维和逻辑维要素融合在一个维度上,构建了基于时间-逻辑维度的道路施工应急能力指标体系,其中包含应急资源准备能力、应急预案管理能力、恢复与处理能力、紧急处理能力、信息畅通能力、管理建设能力和监测预警能力7个准则层指标和30个方案层指标,并给出了评判标准和各项指标的权重。计算结果表明:时间维和逻辑维的比重分别为0.6和0.4,验证了此指标体系的可行性。     

重大突发事件的动态协同应急决策

为实现有关重大突发事件应急的科学决策,综合运用协同矩阵、多属性决策理论,建立多部门参与的动态协同应急决策方法。将重大突发事件的协同应急决策问题抽象成多目标优化模型;考虑部门依赖,协同各部门目标,优选初始化应急处置方案;考虑情景分析动态协同决策过程可能出现的变化,如方案评价调整、部门新增方案、加入协同部门、协同部门撤出等,重构突发事件动态协同应急系统拓扑结构,动态修正应急处置方案。研究结果表明:用该方法可根据协同应急决策过程变化,通过更新计算应急处置方案评价,实现应急处置方案的动态调整,从而提高应急决策的有效性。     

河南油田井下作业公司进行井控演练

5月30日上午,河南油田井下作业公司为增强处理井喷事故能力,在江河4-6井场举行大规模井控演练。公司下属单位的6支基层队参加了演练,另外20支作业、试油队伍现场进行了观摩学习。通过演练,检验了公司在报警、人员组织、物资工具准备、井喷紧急抢险实施程序、现场救护等多方面对突发井喷的应急反应能力及井控操作技能,     

基于项目反应理论的矿工应急响应能力评估

个人应急响应能力评估是个体应急处置能力建设和提升的基础。为了有效测度矿工应急响应能力,提出了一种基于项目反应理论的矿工应急响应能力评估方法。首先,运用信息加工模型对人员应急响应能力形成机理进行分析;然后以煤矿机电作业人员为例,从危险情景判断和响应状态两个维度设计矿工应急反应状况测试题,获取某矿20名机电作业人员应急反应数据,并借助项目反应理论中两参数Logistic模型项目特征曲线对煤矿机电作业人员应急响应能力进行评估;研究结果表明,项目反应理论可用于测度矿工个人应急响应能力,可以为矿工应急响应能力提升提供理论指导。     

水电工程施工突发事件应急响应方案决策研究

为保障水电工程施工应急响应决策的有效性,充分考虑决策者的心理因素及决策过程的模糊性和随机性,建立基于前景理论及云模型的应急响应方案综合决策方法。首先,分析水电工程施工突发事件特点,确定应急响应方案决策指标;其次,将方案语言评价值云模型化,定义云距离、云可能度、云前景价值,并根据不同的应急响应方案,差异选择心理参考点,构建应急响应方案云前景决策矩阵;最后,求解各准则最优权系数,优选应急响应方案。结果表明,根据所建立的决策方法制定的决策方案能够有效控制事态发展,其预期效果与实际情况基本吻合。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。