Mixed-Grass Prairie Canopy Structure and Spectral Reflectance Vary with Topographic Position

Managers of the nearly 0.5 million ha of public lands in North and South Dakota, USA rely heavily on manual measurements of canopy height in autumn to ensure conservation of grassland structure for wildlife and forage for livestock. However, more comprehensive assessment of vegetation structure could be achieved for mixed-grass prairie by integrating field survey, topographic position (summit, mid and toeslope) and spectral reflectance data. Thus, we examined the variation of mixed-grass prairie structural attributes (canopy leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content) and spectral vegetation indices (VIs) with variation in topographic position at the Grand River National Grassland (GRNG), South Dakota. We conducted the study on a 36,000-ha herbaceous area within the GRNG, where randomly selected plots (1?km² in size) were geolocated and included summit, mid and toeslope positions. We tested for effects of topographic position on measured vegetation attributes and VIs calculated from Landsat TM and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data collected in July 2010. Leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content were lower at summits than at toeslopes. The simple ratio of Landsat Band 7/Band 1 (SR71) was the VI most highly correlated with canopy standing crop and height at plot and landscape scales. Results suggest field and remote sensing-based grassland assessment techniques could more comprehensively target low structure areas at minimal expense by layering modeled imagery over a landscape stratified into topographic position groups.     

Bioavailable phosphorus in runoff from alfalfa, smooth bromegrass, and alfalfa-smooth bromegrass

Runoff from sloping landscapes cropped with established alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) may contain bioavailable P (BAP) which accelerates eutrophication of surface water bodies. Such BAP exists as either dissolved reactive P (DRP) or bioavailable reactive particulate P (BPP). We hypothesized that before and after harvest, sod-forming smooth bromegrass (Bromus inermis Leyss.) or alfalfa-smooth bromegrass mixtures would have less BAP, DRP, and BPP runoff losses than taprooted alfalfa. Swards established in 1992 near Lancaster, WI were subjected to a 72 mm simulated rainfall applied for 1 h in 1993 and 1994 to forage regrowth at 4 and 6 wk after first harvest and immediately (0 wk) after second harvest. Hourly BAP losses for all sward types were 82% less when 1.5 Mg ha(-1) of forage dry matter was present. High DRP losses (>0.050 kg ha(-1)) were associated with high DRP concentrations (>7.1 micromol L(-1)) and high surface soil P concentrations (>59 mg kg(-1)) resulting from broadcast maintenance P fertilizer. High BPP losses (>0.035 kg ha(-1)) were associated with high runoff volumes (>24 mm) and sediment concentrations (>2 g L(-1)). Summed over all 6 rainfall simulations, total BAP loss was only 0.07 kg ha(-1) at the 6 wk stage of regrowth compared with 0.35 at 4 wk, and 0.41 at 0 wk. Moreover, there was no significant difference between sward types for DRP concentration, DRP loss, or BAP loss. We conclude that avoiding excessive defoliation was more effective at reducing BAP losses than specific forage species selection.     

Assessment of Water Availability and Scarcity Based on Hydrologic Components in an Irrigated Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

This study assesses the water availability and the water scarcity based on the hydrologic behavior under different weather conditions and crop coverages in an irrigated agricultural area of Rincon Valley in New Mexico using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two spatial crop coverages included normal (2008) and dry (2011) years with 14 different crop sets for each year. The SWAT was applied to generate the five essential indicators (surface flow, evapotranspiration, soil water, groundwater recharge, and irrigation water) to evaluate the integrated water availability based on hydrologic response units (HRUs) along with the Arrey Canal to supply irrigation water in the crop areas. The water availability index scores (0–1 range with 1 being the most available and 0 the least available) of alfalfa, corn, cotton, and pecans were 0.21, 0.56, 0.91, and 0.20, respectively, in the normal year and 0.16, 0.78, 0.88, and 0.24, respectively, in the dry year. In the dry year, water scarcity values were high in mostly alfalfa areas, whereas cotton areas have mostly no stress with good water availability. The major water users of crops, ranked in order, were alfalfa, pecans, cotton, and corn. During the dry year, water availability showed to be balanced in terms of water supply and demand by controlling crop patterns from reducing alfalfa acreage by 12% and increasing cotton acreage by 13%.     

Effect of alkaline-stabilized biosolids on alfalfa molybdenum and copper content

Agricultural utilization of biosolids poses a potential risk to ruminant animals due to transfer of Mo from biosolids to forage to the animal in amounts large enough to suppress Cu uptake by the animal. Alkaline-stabilized biosolids (ASB) must be given particular consideration in assessment of Mo risk because the high pH of these biosolids could increase Mo and decrease Cu uptake by forage legumes. In this 3-yr field experiment, ASB and ground agricultural limestone (AL) were applied based on their alkalinity at rates equivalent to 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 times the lime requirement of the soil and alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) was grown. Alfalfa yield was similar with AL and ASB except in the second year when ASB produced larger yields, apparently due to increased B availability with ASB. Application of ASB did not detectably increase extractable soil Mo (0- to 15-cm depth), but increased alfalfa Mo uptake in all cuttings with yield-weighted uptake coefficients (UCs) of 8.07 and 7.11 following the first and second ASB applications, respectively. Although ASB increased extractable soil Cu, and alfalfa Cu content was greater with ASB than with AL, yield-weighted alfalfa Cu to Mo ratio was decreased by ASB to levels near 3. These results suggest that ASB may have a greater effect on Mo uptake and Cu to Mo ratio of forage legumes than do other biosolids. Additional research is needed to determine implications of larger Mo cumulative loading with ASB for Mo risk, particularly in the soil pH range of 7 to 8.     

Manure management effects on grass production, nutritive content, and soil nitrogen for a grass silage-based dairy farm

Legislation in the United States has recently focused on improving water quality by establishing management practices that limit the quantities of nutrients entering the water supply. Timely application and quantification of the amount of manure applied throughout the grass-growing season can reduce the loss of nutrients into ground or surface water while improving the quality and quantity of grass harvested. During the 2001 and 2002 growing seasons, we measured the effects of different manure application rates on grass yields, grass nutritive value, and soil chemistry on a dairy farm. On-farm estimates of manure N were combined with yield estimates and forage quality measures to evaluate the effects of varying levels of manure application. Yield estimates, N content of grass, and the amount of N in soil and manure were monitored at each cutting for plots amended at different manure application rates. There are three major outcomes of this evaluation: (i) new grass seedings were at higher risk of elevated levels of nitrate N in forage; (ii) increased forage nitrate N at harvest was associated with malfermented silage and increased levels of ammonia N, which resulted in less efficient use of metabolizable protein for milk production; and (iii) increased understanding of N cycling between manure, soil, and plant provided an opportunity to reduce purchased fertilizer.     

WATER REUSE FROM SEWAGE EFFLUENT BY IRRIGATION: A PERSPECTIVE FOR HAWAII1

ABSTRACT: Surrounded by an ocean, the Hawaiian Islands are limited in their natural fresh water resources. The major readily developable potable sources are the high quality ground water sources which serve both domestic uses and sugarcane irrigation although irrigation water does not require as high a quality as drinking water. The increasing overall fresh water requirements for the island of Oahu will outstrip the potential yield of fresh ground water sources, as developed by present technology, by the year 2000 according to Honolulu Board of Water Supply projections. There are water shortage regions on other islands. Water reuse from sewage effluent for irrigation will augment natural water resources, furnish supplemental or alternative fertilizer, and reduce ocean water pollution and the costs of engineering systems. In cooperative field testing from 1971 to 1975, it was demonstrated that effluent can be applied as supplemental water for furrow irrigation of sugarcane without detriment to ground water quality and sugar yield. Studies are in progress to test different dilutions of effluent and its use with chemical ripeners to improve crop yield. Sugarcane plantations on Oahu, Maui, and Kauai are in various stages of water reuse by effluent irrigation. Reuse is presently practiced for irrigation of golf courses and is being planned for forage crops in Hawaii.     

EARLY MORNING CANOPY TEMPERATURES FOR EVALUATING WATER STRESS IN A WHEAT CROP1

ABSTRACT: Several crop water stress indices were examined to determine their potential for use from a space-based system. These indices were compared using data collected over a wheat crop grown under arid environmental conditions. Indices that required concurrent ground-based measurements were less adaptable than the simple difference between canopy temperatures of a field with unknown stress conditions and a similar crop known to be unstressed. The results indicate that it would be feasible to develop space-based crop water stress techniques that would be useful for scheduling irrigations.     

Irrigation of broccoli and canola with boron- and selenium-laden effluent

Selenium (Se), boron (B), and salinity contamination of agricultural drainage water is potentially hazardous for water reuse strategies in central California. To demonstrate the feasibility of using plants to extract Se from drainage water, Se accumulation was determined in canola (Brassica napus L.) and broccoli (Brassica oleracea L.) irrigated with drainage effluent in the San Joaquin Valley, California. In the 2-yr field study, both crops were irrigated with a typical drainage water containing Se (150 microg L(-1)), B (5 mg L(-1)), and a sulfate dominated salinity (EC of 7 dS m(-1)). Total dry matter yields were at least 11 Mg ha(-1) for both canola and broccoli, and plant tissue Se concentrations did not exceed 7 mg kg(-1) DM for either crop. Based on the amount of soluble Se applied to crops with drainage water and the estimated amount of soluble Se remaining in soil to a depth of 90 cm at harvest, both canola and broccoli accumulated at least 40% of the estimated soluble Se lost from the soil for both years. Applied Se not accounted for in plant tissue or as soluble Se in the soil was presumably lost by biological volatilization. This study suggests that irrigating two high value crops such as canola and broccoli with Se-laden effluent helps manage Se-laden effluent requiring treatment, and also produces economically viable Se-enriched crops. Future research should focus on managing residual salt and B in the soil for sustaining long time water reuse strategies.     

Nitrogen removal and nitrate leaching for forage systems receiving dairy effluent

Florida dairies need year-round forage systems that prevent loss of N to ground water from waste effluent sprayfields. Our purpose was to quantify forage N removal and monitor nitrate N (NO3(-)-N) concentrations in soil water below the rooting zone for two forage systems during four 12-mo cycles (1996-2000). Soil in the sprayfield is an excessively drained Kershaw sand (thermic, uncoated Typic Quartzipsamment). Over four cycles, average loading rates of effluent N were 500, 690, and 910 kg ha(-1) per cycle. Nitrogen removed by the bermudagrass (Cynodon spp.)-rye (Secale cereale L.) system (BR) during the first three cycles was 465 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low loading rate, 528 kg ha(-1) for the medium rate, and 585 kg ha(-1) for the high. For the corn (Zea mays L.)-forage sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]-rye system (CSR), N removals were 320 kg ha(-1) per cycle for the low rate, 327 kg ha(-1) for the medium, and 378 kg ha(-1) for the high. The higher N removals for BR were attributed to higher N concentration in bermudagrass (18.1-24.2 g kg(-1)) than in corn and forage sorghum (10.3-14.7 g kg(-1)). Dry matter yield declined in the fourth cycle for bermudagrass but N removal continued to be higher for BR than CSR. The BR system was much more effective at preventing NO3(-)-N leaching. For CSR, NO3(-)-N levels in soil water (1.5 m below surface) increased steeply during the period between the harvest of one forage and canopy dosure of the next. Overall, the BR system was better than CSR at removing N from the soil and maintaining low NO3(-)-N concentrations below the rooting zone.     

Vegetation stress detection through chlorophyll a + b estimation and fluorescence effects on hyperspectral imagery

Physical principles applied to remote sensing data are key to successfully quantifying vegetation physiological condition from the study of the light interaction with the canopy under observation. We used the fluorescence-reflectance-transmittance (FRT) and PROSPECT leaf models to simulate reflectance as a function of leaf biochemical and fluorescence variables. A series of laboratory measurements of spectral reflectance at leaf and canopy levels and a modeling study were conducted, demonstrating that effects of chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) can be detected by remote sensing. The coupled FRT and PROSPECT model enabled CF and chlorophyll a + b (Ca + b) content to be estimated by inversion. Laboratory measurements of leaf reflectance (r) and transmittance (t) from leaves with constant Ca + b allowed the study of CF effects on specific fluorescence-sensitive indices calculated in the Photosystem I (PS-I) and Photosystem II (PS-II) optical region, such as the curvature index [CUR; (R675.R690)/R2(683)]. Dark-adapted and steady-state fluorescence measurements, such as the ratio of variable to maximal fluorescence (Fv/Fm), steady state maximal fluorescence (F'm), steady state fluorescence (Ft), and the effective quantum yield (delta F/F'm) are accurately estimated by inverting the FRT-PROSPECT model. A double peak in the derivative reflectance (DR) was related to increased CF and Ca + b concentration. These results were consistent with imagery collected with a compact airborne spectrographic imager (CASI) sensor from sites of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) of high and low stress conditions, showing a double peak on canopy derivative reflectance in the red-edge spectral region. We developed a derivative chlorophyll index (DCI; calculated as D705/D722), a function of the combined effects of CF and Ca + b content, and used it to detect vegetation stress.     

VARIABILITY OF SOIL WATER PROPERTIES AND CROP YIELD IN A SLOPED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Spatial distribution of soil and water properties and the correlations between them and crop yield were determined for a natural rainfall environment. Hydraulic conductivity, soil texture, water retention, and soil-water flux were variables used to investigate their relationship to crop yield using multiple regression techniques. Variations in crop yields on a watershed with a 3 to 4 percent slope and moderately erosive soils were related to soil-water characteristics and soil properties along slope and with depth. Climatic conditions to sustain crop growth and yield ranged from inadequate soil water in 1983 to adequate soil water in 1984. Crop yield was predicted with models using both available and measured soil-water content. Available water content provided a better model for the prediction of water yield and does not require field measurements of actual soil-water content. Soil water holding capacity was more significant for predicting crop yield in soils with moderate to high silt content than infiltrability of water into the soil.     

Integrating forage,wildlife, water,and fish projections with timber projections at the regional level: A case study in southern United States

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion to planted pine.     

Environmental assessment of dehydrated alfalfa production in Spain

Alfalfa is the major forage crop produced in temperate regions worlwide. Although this crop is currently used mainly for producing high-value livestock feed, its application for bioenergy production is a recent focus of interest. Even though it is not mandatory, alfalfa is normally dried in order to improve the quality of the final product. In this study, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was used to quantify the environmental impacts linked to alfalfa production in the major cultivation zone in Spain (Ebro Valley), including field activities, dehydration and transport to farms for livestock feeding. In addition, the identification of the most relevant processes contributing to the environmental impact and the potential improvements actions were also defined as objectives. Inventory data were obtained mainly from interviews with farmers complemented with published literature and comments from experts.LCA results were obtained for global warming, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidant formation, land use, non-renewable cumulative energy demand and human, terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicities. Within the life cycle of alfalfa, the dehydration process, production of phosphate fertilizer, application of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides, water consumption and final transport to the consumer (by road and ship) were identified as hot spots. Based on these, some improvement measures were proposed and evaluated: (i) reduction of the moisture content of alfalfa and the use of a higher percentage of biomass for combustion in the dehydration process, (ii) no application of nitrogen fertilizer in maintenance years and (iii) use of more efficient trucks for transport. Their implementation would produce significant reduction of eutrophication, global warming, acidification, non-renewable cumulative energy demand and, to a lesser extent, photochemical oxidation formation and human toxicity impacts.     

Nitrogen availability from composts for humid region perennial grass and legume-grass forage production

Perennial forages may be ideally suited for fertilization with slow N release amendments such as composts, but difficulties in predicting N supply from composts have limited their routine use in forage production. A field study was conducted to compare the yield and protein content of a binary legume-grass forage mixture and a grass monocrop cut twice annually, when fertilized with diverse composts. In all three years from 1998-2000, timothy (Phleum pratense L.)-red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and timothy swards were fertilized with ammonium nitrate (AN) at up to 150 and 300 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. Organic amendments, applied at up to 600 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) in the first two years only, included composts derived from crop residue (CSC), dairy manure (DMC), or sewage sludge (SSLC), plus liquid dairy manure (DM). Treatments DM at 150 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) and CSC at 600 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) produced cumulative timothy yields matching those obtained for inorganic fertilizer. Apparent nitrogen recovery (ANR) ranged from 0.65% (SSLC) to 15.1% (DMC) for composts, compared with 29.4% (DM) and 36.5% (AN). The legume component (approximately 30%) of the binary mixture acted as an effective "N buffer" maintaining forage yield and protein content consistently higher, and within a narrower range, across all treatments. Integrating compost utilization into livestock systems that use legume-grass mixtures may reduce the risk of large excesses or deficits of N, moderate against potential losses in crop yield and quality, and by accommodating lower application rates of composts, reduce soil P and K accumulation.     

SNOWPACK CHANGES RESULTING FROM TIMBER HARVEST INTERCEPTION,REDISTRIBUTION, AND EVAPORATION1

ABSTRACT: Three processes were examined as causing snowpack changes in forest clearings. Two of the three contribute to increases and one counteracts by reducing snowpack. The two that increase snowpack are redistribution and decreased loss to interception. Snow evaporation from a clearing counteracts snowpack increases. Research has indicated that as vegetation density increases, so too does the loss to interception. As snow in the canopy reaches the limit that the canopy can hold (the threshold amount) evaporation increases. Aerodynamics of the forest canopy were studied as well. As timber is cut, wind patterns are disturbed, creating disruptions in the wind velocity gradient depositing snow in openings. This redistribution leads to an increased snow water equivalent and augments runoff. Snow evaporation was shown to increase proportionally with opening size. Evaporation offsets the water yield gains derived from forest cut. It was found that this offset is inclusive to the measurements of water yield changes in experimental forests. An optimal size of harvest block may be five tree heights in width as suggested by numerous studies.     

Environmental implications of adopting a dominant factor approach to salinity management

Additive or multiplicative models of crop response on which salinity management theory have been developed may lead to an erroneous perception regarding compensative interaction among salinity and other growth factors. We present results from studies of biomass production and transpiration of corn (Zea mays L. cv. Jubilee), melon (Cucumis melo L. subsp. melo cv. Galia), tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. cv. 5656), onion (Allium cepa L. cv. HA 944), and date palms (Phoenix dactylifera L. cv. Medjool) under salinity combined with water or nitrate (growth promoters) or with boron (growth inhibitor). The measured crop responses were to the more severe stress rather than to combinations of the individual effects of the various stresses. Consequences of shifting management of saline water to a dominant factor approach include reduction of environmental contamination and conservation of water resources.     

Hyperspectral reflectance response of freshwater macrophytes to salinity in a brackish subtropical marsh

Coastal freshwater wetlands are threatened by increased salinity due to relative sea level rise and reduced freshwater inputs. Remote radiometric measurement of freshwater marsh canopies to detect small shifts in water column salinity would be useful for assessing salinity encroachment. We measured leaf hyperspectral (300-1100 nm) reflectance of freshwater macrophytes (cattail, Typha latifolia and sea oxeye, Borrichia frutescens) in a field study in a subtropical brackish (2.5-4.5 parts per thousand salinity, per thousand) marsh to determine salinity effects on visible and near-infrared spectral band reflectance and to identify reflectance indices sensitive to small (1 per thousand) changes in wetland salinity. For sea oxeye, floating-position water band index [fWBI = R(900)/minimum(R(930) - R(980)), where R(lambda) = reflectance at band lambda], normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI = (R(774) - R(681))/(R(774) + R(681))], and a proposed wetland salinity reflectance ratio (WSRR = R(990)/R(933)) were sensitive to salinity with R2 of 40, 35, and 65%, respectively (p < 0.01). For cattail, NDVI and photochemical reflectance index [PRI = (R(531) - R(570))/(R(570) + R(531))] were sensitive to salinity with R2 of 29 and 33%, respectively (p 相似文献   

Effect of chemical and microbial amendment on phosphorus runoff from composted poultry litter

Environmental impacts of composting poultry litter with chemical amendments at the field scale have not been well quantified. The objectives of this study were to measure (i) P runoff and (ii) forage yield and N uptake from small plots fertilized with composted and fresh poultry litter. Two composting studies, aerated using mechanical turning, were conducted in consecutive years. Composted litter was collected at the completion of each study for use in runoff studies. Treatments in runoff studies included an unfertilized control, fresh (uncomposted) poultry litter, and litter composted with no amendment, H3PO4, alum, or a microbial mixture. An additional treatment, litter composted with alum plus the microbial mixture, was evaluated during the first year. Fertilizer treatments were applied at rates equivalent to 8.96 Mg ha(-1) and rainfall simulators were used to produce a 5 cm h(-1) storm event. Composted poultry litter, regardless of treatment, had higher total P concentrations than fresh poultry litter. Composting poultry litter resulted in reductions of N/P ratios by as much as 51%. Soluble reactive P concentrations were lowest in alum-treated compost, which reduced soluble P concentrations in runoff water by as much as 84%. Forage yields and N uptake were greatest from plots fertilized with fresh poultry litter. Composting poultry litter without the addition of C sources can increase P concentrations in the end product and surface runoff. This study also indicated that increased rates of composted poultry litter would be required to meet equivalent N rates supplied by fresh poultry litter.     

SIMULATED RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SPECTRAL REFLECTANCE,THERMAL EMISSIONS,AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF A SOYBEAN CANOPY1

ABSTRACT: A canopy reflectance model is incorporated into a routine for simulating water and energy flows in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. The reflectance model is structured tocalculate canopy albedo throughout each simulation period and to determine spectral reflectances at a specified time during the day. Spectral vegetation indices are then calculated from the reflectances and related to the evapotranspiration and thermal response of the canopy. The canopy reflectance model is also used to establish the photo-sytheticaily active radiation load at various depths in the canopy. Stomatal resistances are calculated using these radiation values and integrated to give the minimum canopy resistance. Actual canopy resistance is obtained by adjusting minimum canopy resistance for environmental stresses such as leaf water potential and leaf temperature. Using data for a soybean canopy, canopy evapotranspiration and temperatures are simulated for a range of leaf area index values and compared with the corresponding spectral vegetation indices. The resuits indicate that the normalized difference spectral index has an inverse linear relationship with canopy temperature, concurring with results obtained from satellite observations. The possibility of using a spectral vegetation index and thermal observations together to parameterize surface moisture availability for evapotranspiration is considered.     

PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVERITY OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHTS BASED ON AGRO-CLIMATIC FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations.