The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/.     

Newspaper response to flood and erosion hazards on the North Lake Erie shore

The study is primarily concerned with newspaper responses to flooding and erosion associated with Great Lakes high water in 1952–1953 and 1972–1974. Underlying the research is a general interest in informing the public more widely on choices available in resource and environmental decision making.     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

Application of nutrient loading models to the analysis of trophic conditions in Lake Okeechobee,Florida

Lake Okeechobee (surface area = 1830 km², mean depth = 3.5 m), the largest lake in Florida, is eutrophic and has nitrogen and phosphorus loading rates in excess of nearly all established criteria. The lake is not homogeneous regarding trophic conditions, and spatial and temporal variations occur regarding nutrient limitation. Nonetheless, phosphorus loading rate and trophic state data fit reasonably well to various input-output models developed for temperate lakes. Modification of the models by regression analysis to fit data for Florida lakes resulted in improved predictions for most parameters. Analysis of nutrient management alternatives for the lake indicates that a 75% reduction of phosphorus loading from the largest source (the Taylor Creek-Nubbins Slough watershed) would reduce the average chlorophyll a concentration by less than 20%. Complete elimination of inputs from the largest nitrogen source (the Everglades Agricultural Area) would decrease the average nitrogen concentration in the lake by about 20%. Limitations of nutrient inputoutput models regarding analysis of trophic conditions and management alternatives for the lake are discussed.     

Using Dynamic Modeling to Scope Environmental Problems and Build Consensus

/ This paper assesses the changing role of dynamic modeling for understanding and managing complex ecological economic systems. It discusses new modeling tools for problem scoping and consensus building among a broad range of stakeholders and describes four case studies in which dynamic modeling has been used to collect and organize data, synthesize knowledge, and build consensus about the management of complex systems. The case studies range from industrial systems (mining, smelting, and refining of iron and steel in the United States) to ecosystems (Louisiana coastal wetlands, and Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa) to linked ecological economic systems (Maryland's Patuxent River basin in the United States). They illustrate uses of dynamic modeling to include stakeholders in all stages of consensus building, ranging from initial problem scoping to model development. The resultant models are the first stage in a three-stage modeling process that includes research and management models as the later stages.KEY WORDS: Dynamic modeling; Scoping; Consensus building; Environmental management; Ecosystem management; Policy making; Graphical programming languages     

Identifying the Institutional Decision Process to Introduce Decentralized Sanitation in the City of Kunming (China)

We conducted a study of the institutional barriers to introducing urine source separation in the urban area of Kunming, China. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis, we constructed stakeholder diagrams showing the relative importance of decision-making power and (positive) interest in the topic. A hypothetical decision-making process for the urban case was derived based on a successful pilot project in a periurban area. All our results were evaluated by the stakeholders. We concluded that although a number of primary stakeholders have a large interest in testing urine source separation also in an urban context, most of the key stakeholders would be reluctant to this idea. However, the success in the periurban area showed that even a single, well-received pilot project can trigger the process of broad dissemination of new technologies. Whereas the institutional setting for such a pilot project is favorable in Kunming, a major challenge will be to adapt the technology to the demands of an urban population. Methodologically, we developed an approach to corroborate a stakeholder analysis with the perception of the stakeholders themselves. This is important not only in order to validate the analysis but also to bridge the theoretical gap between stakeholder analysis and stakeholder involvement. We also show that in disagreement with the assumption of most policy theories, local stakeholders consider informal decision pathways to be of great importance in actual policy-making.     

Decision Support for Road System Analysis and Modification on the Tahoe National Forest

The United States Forest Service is required to analyze road systems on each of the national forests for potential environmental impacts. We have developed a novel and inexpensive way to do this using the Ecosystem Management Decision Support program (EMDS). We used EMDS to integrate a user-developed fuzzy logic knowledge base with a grid-based geographic information system to evaluate the degree of truth for assertions about a roads environmental impact. Using spatial data for natural and human processes in the Tahoc National Forest (TNF, California, USA), we evaluated the assertion the road has a high potential for impacting the environment. We found a high level of agreement between the products of this evaluation and ground observations of a TNF transportation engineer, as well as occurrences of road failures. We used the modeled potential environmental impact to negatively weight roads for a least-cost path network analysis to 1573 points of interest in the forest. The network analysis showed that out of 8233 km of road analyzed in the forest, 3483 km (42%) must be kept in a modified road network to ensure access to these points. We found that the modified network had improved patch characteristics, such as significantly fewer cherry stem roads intruding into patches, an improved area-weighted mean shape index, and larger mean patch sizes, as compared to the original network. This analysis system could be used by any public agency to analyze infrastructure for environmental or other risk and included in other mandated analyses such as risks to watersheds.     

奥运湖不同补水方案营养状态趋势分析

规划中的奥运湖位于奥林匹克公园,运行中将采用人工补水方式。为保证未来奥运湖的正常景观生态功能,源水经奥运公园中人工湿地处理后再引入湖中。在规划设计阶段,提出三种补水方案：（1）清河再生水厂出水经湿地处理后入湖,（2）清河河水经湿地处理后入湖,（3）经湿地处理达地表水环境标准中的Ⅳ类水要求后入湖。为了考察不同水源补水方案对奥运湖的水质保障程度,本研究对不同方案下奥运公园湖水质的时间、空间变化过程予以模拟,分析评价奥运湖可能出现的富营养化状况,并对各个补水方案带来的富营养化风险和基本成因予以推断,为奥运湖的设计运行提供技术依据。结果表明,方案3的富营养化风险最小、水质保障程度最高。结合三种补水方案水质特点,推断磷是主要限制因子,所以控制磷的浓度是保证水质安全、降低富营养化风险的重要途径。     

Targeted Application of Seasonal Load Duration Curves Using Multivariate Analysis in Two Watersheds Flowing Into Lake Houston1

Teague, Aarin, Philip B. Bedient, and Birnur Guven, 2011. Targeted Application of Seasonal Load Duration Curves Using Multivariate Analysis in Two Watersheds Flowing Into Lake Houston. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):620‐634. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00529.x Abstract: Water quality is a problem in Lake Houston, the primary source of drinking water for the City of Houston, Texas, due to pollutant loads coming from the influent watersheds, including Spring Creek and Cypress Creek. Statistical analysis of the historic water quality data was developed to understand the source characterization and seasonality of the watershed. Multivariate analysis including principal component, cluster, and discriminant analysis provided a custom seasonal assessment of the watersheds so that loading curves may be targeted for season specific pollutant source characterization. The load duration curves have been analyzed using data collected by the U.S. Geologic Survey with corresponding City of Houston water quality data at the sites to characterize the behavior of the pollutant sources and watersheds. Custom seasons were determined for Spring Creek and Cypress Creek watersheds and pollutant source characterization compared between the seasons and watersheds.     

Using Force Analysis to Target Collection and Analysis of Environmental Information

Knowledge of the forces driving and modifying ecosystems can be employed in concert with signal analysis to target the data most likely to yield sensitivity and resilience information. One can optimize return of information per investment of resources by targeting segments of signals that are dominated by the force of interest, coupled with scientific understanding of the system of interest. This force analysis approach is an effective means both to design efficient new monitoring programs and to target relevant information in large data files. We present five example applications of force analysis. Three examples illustrate this approach for an evaluation of whether Canadian rivers might be sensitive to changes in climate. It was concluded that Canadian rivers appear to be sensitive to changing climate. A fourth example illustrates how automated snow pillow data may be evaluated to ascertain the sensitivity of snow accumulation to change in climate. It was concluded that snow accumulation at the site evaluated did appear to be sensitive to changing climate. The fifth example illustrates the assessment of whether a river recovers with the elimination of inputs of iron from an abandoned mine. It was concluded that resilience remained unproven since the river had not as yet restabilized. The force analysis approach focuses data collection or data evaluation on those data required to answer specific resource management questions, greatly reducing collection or consideration of data that are not relevant to that question. This approach is potentially very cost-efficient and therefore is likely to be of interest to hydrologists, climatologists, and environmental data managers.     

Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Multivariate Analysis of the Ecoregion Delineation for Aquatic Systems

The ecoregion concept is a popular method of understanding the spatial distribution of the environment', however, it has yet to be adequately demonstrated that the environment is distributed in accordance with these bounded units. In this paper, we generated a testable hypothesis based on the current usage of ecoregions: the ecoregion classification will allow for discrimination between lakes of different water quality. The ecoregion classification should also be more effective better than a comparably scaled classification based on political boundaries, land-use class, or random grouping. To test this hypothesis we used the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) lake water chemistry data from the northeast United States. The water chemistry data were reduced to four components using principal component analysis. For comparison to an optimal grouping of these data we used K-means cluster analysis to define the extent at which these lakes could be segregated into distinct classes. Jackknifed discriminant analysis was used to determine the classification rate of ecoregions, the three alternative spatial classification methods, and the clustering algorithm. The classification based on ecoregions was successful for 35% of the lakes included in this study, in comparison to the clustered groups accuracy of 98%. These results suggest that the large scale spatial distribution of ecosystem types is more complicated than that suggested by the present ecoregion boundaries. Further tests of ecoregion delineations are needed and alternative large-scale management strategies should be investigated.     

An approach for integrating economic impact analysis into the evaluation of potential marine protected area sites

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are one tool that can be used in the comprehensive management of human activities in areas of the ocean. Although researchers have supported using MPAs as an ecosystem management tool, scientific research on MPAs in areas other than fisheries and fisheries management is limited. This paper presents a model for designing marine protected areas that protect important components of the ecosystem while minimizing economic impacts on local communities. This model combines conservation principles derived specifically for the marine environment with economic impact assessment. This integrated model allows for consideration of both fishery and non-fishery resources and activities such as shipping and recreational boating. An illustration of the model is presented that estimates the total economic impacts on Massachusetts' coastal counties of restricting fishing and shipping at certain sites in an area in the southern Gulf of Maine. The results suggest that the economic impacts on the region would differ according to the site in which shipping and fishing were restricted. Restricting activities in certain sites may have considerable impacts on local communities. The use of the model for evaluating and comparing potential MPA sites is illustrated through an evaluation of three different policy scenarios. The scenarios demonstrate how the model could be used to achieve different goals for managing resources in the region: protecting important components of the ecosystem, minimizing economic impacts on the local region, or a combination of the two.     

Early Development of Systems Analysis in Natural Resources Management from Man and Nature to the Miami Conservancy District

Contemporary approaches to natural resources and environmental decision-making typically draw on a “systems” perspective to assess and improve management strategies. This paper describes the early genesis of the systems analysis approach. It concentrates on a period between the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. During the early part of this period, George Marsh's Man and Nature and related works laid out an approach to problem-solving that recognized the relationship among physically disperse elements in the environment, the need to balance benefits against costs, the potential for using quantitative modeling to understand management options, and the importance of integrating human and natural components into solutions. In the early 20th century, the Miami Conservancy District project brought this approach to fruition with its use of complex simulation and optimization modeling, detailed cost–benefit analysis, and its linking of economics, engineering, science, and law into a far-reaching solution to a complex water resources problem. The objective of this paper is to describe the early development and application of this conceptual approach to problem-solving. An examination of the origins of natural resources systems analysis can broaden one's perspective of the contemporary field to understand its roots as a philosophy for environmental problem-solving.     

Multiattribute Utility Analysis as a Framework for Public Participation in Siting a Hazardous Waste Management Facility

This paper describes a public participation exercise in which stakeholders used an approach based on multiattribute utility analysis to select a site for a hazardous waste management facility. The key to success was the ability to separate and address two types of judgments inherent in environmental decisions—technical judgments regarding the likely consequences of alternative choices and value judgments regarding the importance or seriousness of those consequences. The approach enabled technical specialists to communicate the essential technical considerations and allowed stakeholders to establish the value judgments for the decision. Although rarely used in public participation, the multiattribute utility approach appears to provide a useful framework for the collaborative resolution of complex environmental decision problems.