A multi-agent simulation model for spatial optimisation of manure allocation

The EU Nitrate Directive has spurred many countries to regulate manure production and manure application. Farmers have three allocation options: spreading manure on their own land, transporting manure to other farmers' land or processing manure. The manure problem can be seen as an allocation problem. To better understand this allocation problem, we have developed the spatial mathematical programming multi-agent simulation (MP-MAS) model. This model has been applied in Flanders, Belgium, a region with a high concentration of livestock. The model evaluates the cost efficiency of policy intervention in the manure market through obliged processing. We propose to further optimise the policy using a regionally differentiated manure pressure indicator, which is directly derived from the dual outcome of the mathematical programme. This indicator increases transparency in the manure and processing market, leading to better decision support about location and type of manure processing.     

A screening model for fate and transport of biodegradable polyesters in soil

A numerical model for predicting the fate and transport of biodegradable polyester residues in soil, following successive applications of mulch film, was developed and applied. The polymer, applied on surface soil, was assumed to be converted into by-products (monomers), according to a first order kinetics with constant K(1deg). The monomers released were assumed to sorb on soil organic matter (according to a first-order kinetics with constant K(s)), to be leached with the seepage water, through vertical advection and hydrodynamic dispersion, and biodegraded (according to a first-order kinetics with constant K(b)). Results suggested that, to assess a possible build-up of mulch film (as a polymer) on the surface soil, the degradation constant K(1deg) relating the polymer conversion to by-products should be known, whereas the biodegradation constant K(b) indicates there is no danger of groundwater pollution. Likewise, on the basis of by-product concentration in deep soil, soil pollution should not occur.     

ALAWAT: A spatially allocated watershed model for approximating stream,sediment, and pollutant flows in Hawaii,USA

The Ala Wai Canal Watershed Model (ALAWAT) is a planning-level watershed model for approximating direct runoff, streamflow, sediment loads, and loads for up to five pollutants. ALAWAT uses raster GIS data layers including land use, SCS soil hydrologic groups, annual rainfall, and subwatershed delineations as direct model parameter inputs and can use daily total rainfall from up to ten rain gauges and streamflow from up to ten stream gauges. ALAWAT uses a daily time step and can simulate flows for up to ten-year periods and for up to 50 subwatersheds. Pollutant loads are approximated using a user-defined combination of rating curve relationships, mean event concentrations, and loading/washoff parameters for specific subwatersheds, land uses, and times of year. Using ALAWAT, annual average streamflow and baseflow relationships and urban suspended sediment loads were approximated for the Ala Wai Canal watershed (about 10,400 acres) on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Annual average urban suspended sediments were approximated using two methods: mean event concentrations and pollutant loading and washoff. Parameters for the pollutant loading and washoff method were then modified to simulate the effect of various street sweeping intervals on sediment loads.     

A novel wind speed forecasting model for wind farms of Northwest China

Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon’s Signed-Rank test, and Morgan--Granger--Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.     

Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest1

Huang, Biao, Christian Langpap, and Richard M. Adams, 2011. Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):861‐876. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00562.x Abstract: Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the potential usefulness of short‐term (7 to 10 days) water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may be valuable if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases from Lewiston Dam for management of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding opportunity cost of water under different levels of temperature forecast reliability. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline as forecast reliability increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have potential value to society.     

Sailing the Shoals of Adaptive Management: The Case of Salmon in the Pacific Northwest

/ Emerging ecosystem science builds on adaptive management as an approach to dealing with salmon problems in the Pacific Northwest. Adaptive management brings scientific and democratic processes together. However, managers, the public, resource users, and scientists differ in their views on the causes of salmon decline. Managers emphasize habitat loss and over-harvest as the primary causes; commercial fishers point to habitat loss, management practices, and predators; and the public gives greatest weight to water pollution and ocean drift nets. Scientific studies of salmon often produce results that seem contradictory or unclear to the public. For adaptive management to be effective, scientists' and the public need to better understand one another's perspectives.KEY WORDS: Perception; Fishery management; Salmon; Pacific Northwest; Science     

Stream corridor management in the Pacific Northwest: I. Determination of stream-corridor widths

King County, Washington is a part of the rapidly growing Pacific Northwest region. This growth has placed pressure on stream corridors. Past studies about regional stream corridors provide a rich source of information for environmental planners and managers. This article draws on existing literature and case studies to provide guidelines for determining optimal stream corridor widths in a watershed located in King County, Washington.     

A land suitability model for the evaluation of land-use change

A land suitability model was developed to provide the planner with a quantitative tool for assessing the environmental limitations on proposed land-use changes in the area surrounding Lake Monroe in southern Indiana. The model incorporates a weighting procedure that allows the environmental evaluation of a decision to convert the present land use to another category. The data base for the model was assembled by a multidisciplinary team. A case study is included, which illustrates the advantages and limitations of the land suitability model as it is applied to the evaluation of a site for the Alumni Family Camp.     

Exploring management strategies for community-based forests using multi-agent systems: A case study in Palawan, Philippines

This paper describes the experiences and lessons learned in applying a multi-agent systems (MAS) model to study the dynamics and complex interactions among stakeholders in the management of community-based forests. The MAS model is developed using the companion modelling (ComMod) approach, which allows for a collaborative development of the model between the stakeholders and researchers. This approach involves the development and application of role-playing games (RPGs) and computer simulation as learning tools and to validate the model. Inferences are drawn from the learning and negotiation processes that the stakeholders and researchers underwent in the collaborative development of the MAS model. These processes ultimately led to the development of a collaborative resource management plan. The approach and the MAS model were applied to a case study involving a community-based forest managed by three villages in the island of Palawan, Philippines.     

A conceptual model for assessing ecological risk to water quality function of bottomland hardwood forests

Ecological risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating the threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. This report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) of bottomland hardwood riparian ecosystems (BHRE) in the Tifton-Vidalia upland (TVU) ecoregion of Georgia. Previus research has demonstrated that mature BHRE are essential to maintaining water quality in this portion of the coastal plain. The WQF of these ecosystems is considered an assessment endpoit—an ecosystem function or set of functions that society chooses to value as evidenced by laws, regulations, or common usage. Stressors operate on ecosystems at risk through an exposure scenario to produce ecological effects that are linked to loss of the desired function or assessment end point. The WQF of BHRE is at risk because of the ecological and environmental quality effects of a suite of chemical, physical, and biological stressors. The stressors are related to nonpoint source pollution from adjacent land uses, especially agriculture; the conversion of BHRE to other land uses; and the encroachment of domestic animals into BHRE. Potential chemical, physical, and biological stressors to BHRE are identified, and the methodology for evaluating appropriate exposure scenarios is discussed. Field-scale and watershed-scale measurement end points of most use in assessing the effects of stressors on the WQF are identified and discussed. The product of this study is a conceptual model of how risks to the WQF of BHRE are produced and how the risk and associated uncertainties can be quantified.     

In-stand scenic beauty of variable retention harvests and mature forests in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: The effects of basal area, density, retention pattern and down wood

Tensions between amenity- and timber-based economies in the U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest motivated a study of scenic beauty inside mature forests and timber harvests. A diverse sample of regional forests, measures of forest structure, and large, representative samples of photographs and public judges were employed to measure scenic beauty inside un-harvested mature and old-growth forests, and timber harvests. The latter varied systematically in down wood levels and retention level and pattern. Scenic beauty tended to be optimized at a basal area of 110–155 m³/ha and/or 700–900 trees/ha. Older forests and those with larger trees were perceived to be more beautiful. In harvests, greater retention levels, less down wood, and dispersed rather than aggregated retention patterns contributed to aesthetic improvements. Green-tree retention harvests offer considerable potential gains in perceived scenic beauty compared to perceived very ugly clearcuts, particularly at higher retention levels. These gains are more reliable from dispersed retention patterns. The silvicultural parameters studied change strength in affecting scenic beauty with changes in retention level. These interactions are explored in relation to a range of scenic quality objectives as an aid to planners, visual impact analysts, and silviculturists.     

Collaborative Watershed Groups in Three Pacific Northwest States: A Regional Evaluation of Group Metrics and Perceived Success1

Chaffin, B.C., R.L. Mahler, J.D. Wulfhorst, and B. Shafii, 2011. Collaborative Watershed Groups in Three Pacific Northwest States: A Regional Evaluation of Group Metrics and Perceived Success. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 113‐122. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00599.x Abstract: Watershed management through collaborative groups has become important throughout the United States over the past two decades. Although several studies of Oregon and Washington watershed groups exist, a definitive regional analysis of Pacific Northwest (PNW) watershed groups’ success is lacking. This paper uses data collected from a single survey instrument to determine the status, structure, and success of watershed groups in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, respectively. Results indicate that watershed group member satisfaction with elements of group structure correlates with levels of perceived group success. Strong leadership within a group and a clear mission statement also indicate higher levels of perceived success. Contrasting realized successes among PNW watershed groups with metrics of perceived success constructed from survey data define watershed groups’ missions and goals and is validated by analysis of the Washington State planning groups’ responses. Overall, PNW watershed groups identified themselves as largely successful. Therefore, the structure, function, and operation identified as characteristic of PNW watershed groups could be used as a model for developing watershed group programming in regions with similar conditions.     

An introduction to digital methods in remote sensing of forested ecosystems: Focus on the Pacific Northwest,USA

Aerial photography has been routinely used for several decades by natural resource scientists and managers to map and monitor the condition of forested landscapes. Recently, along with the emergence of concepts in managing forests as ecosystems, has come a significant shift in emphasis from smaller to larger spatial scales and the widespread use of geographic information systems. These developments have precipitated an increasing need for vegetation information derived from other remote sensing imagery, especially digital data acquired from high-elevation aircraft and satellite platforms. This paper introduces fundamental concepts in digital remote sensing and describes numerous applications of the technology. The intent is to provide a balanced, nontechnical view, discussing the shortcomings, successes, and future potential for digital remote sensing of forested ecosystems.     

A review of methods of public land ownership and allocation for housing in Iran

In the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the new administration adopted a number of policies to address the question of land ownership, supply and allocation in order to tackle the acute shortage of housing in the urban areas. In 1982, the Five‐Year Urban Land Act was passed by the Parliament. Subsequently a body called the Urban Land Organisation (ULO) was set up to co‐ordinate the process of land preparation and allocation. The 1982 Urban Land act empowered the government to: (a) expropriate certain categories of abandoned urban land, and (b) to set a temporary time schedule of five years during which the act's work will be monitored.

This paper sets out to examine the policies related to urban land which have been introduced and implemented in the 1980s in Iran.     

Changes in Soil Aggregate,Carbon, and Nitrogen Storages Following the Conversion of Cropland to Alfalfa Forage Land in the Marginal Oasis of Northwest China

Maintenance of soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for sustainable use of soil resources due to the multiple effects of SOC on soil nutrient status and soil structural stability. The objective of this study was to identify the changes in soil aggregate distribution and stability, SOC, and nitrogen (N) concentrations after cropland was converted to perennial alfalfa (Medicago sativa L. Algonguin) grassland for 6 years in the marginal oasis of the middle of Hexi Corridor region, northwest China. Significant changes in the size distribution of dry-sieving aggregates and water-stable aggregates, SOC, and N concentrations occurred after the conversion from crop to alfalfa. SOC and N stocks increased by 20.2% and 18.5%, respectively, and the estimated C and N sequestration rates were 0.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and 0.04 Mg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ following the conversion. The large aggregate (>5 mm) was the most abundant dry aggregate size fraction in both crop and alfalfa soils, and significant difference in the distribution of dry aggregates between the two land use types occurred only in the >5 mm aggregate fraction. The percentage of water-stable macroaggregates (>2, 2–0.25 mm) and aggregate stability (mean weight diameter of water-stable aggregates, WMWD) were significantly higher in alfalfa soils than in crop soils. There was a significant linear relationship between total SOC concentration and aggregate parameters (mean weight diameter) for alfalfa soils, indicating that aggregate stability was closely associated with increased SOC concentration following the conversion of crops to alfalfa. The SOC and N concentrations and the C/N ratio were greatest in the >2 mm water-stable aggregates and the smallest in the 0.25–0.05 mm aggregates in crop and alfalfa soils. For the same aggregate, SOC and N concentrations in aggregate fractions increased with increasing total SOC and N concentrations. The result showed that the conversion of annual crops to alfalfa in the marginal land with coarse-texture soils can significantly increase SOC and N stocks, and improve soil structure.     

Derivation of a GIS-based watershed-scale conceptual model for the St. Jones River Delaware from habitat-scale conceptual models

Conceptual modeling is a useful tool for identifying pathways between drivers, stressors, Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs), and services that are central to understanding how an ecosystem operates. The St. Jones River watershed, DE is a complex ecosystem, and because management decisions must include ecological, social, political, and economic considerations, a conceptual model is a good tool for accommodating the full range of inputs. In 2002, a Four-Component, Level 1 conceptual model was formed for the key habitats of the St. Jones River watershed, but since the habitat level of resolution is too fine for some important watershed-scale issues we developed a functional watershed-scale model using the existing narrowed habitat-scale models. The narrowed habitat-scale conceptual models and associated matrices developed by Reiter et al. (2006) were combined with data from the 2002 land use/land cover (LULC) GIS-based maps of Kent County in Delaware to assemble a diagrammatic and numerical watershed-scale conceptual model incorporating the calculated weight of each habitat within the watershed. The numerical component of the assembled watershed model was subsequently subjected to the same Monte Carlo narrowing methodology used for the habitat versions to refine the diagrammatic component of the watershed-scale model. The narrowed numerical representation of the model was used to generate forecasts for changes in the parameters “Agriculture” and “Forest”, showing that land use changes in these habitats propagated through the results of the model by the weighting factor. Also, the narrowed watershed-scale conceptual model identified some key parameters upon which to focus research attention and management decisions at the watershed scale. The forecast and simulation results seemed to indicate that the watershed-scale conceptual model does lead to different conclusions than the habitat-scale conceptual models for some issues at the larger watershed scale.     

Carbon isotope ratios in logged and unlogged boreal forests: Examination of the potential for determining wildlife habitat use

Due to assimilation of recycled CO₂ from litter decomposition and photosynthetic changes in carbon fractionation at low light levels, the foliage at the base of a forest is often more depleted in¹³C compared to that exposed to the atmosphere in either the canopy or in open clearings. This is referred to as the canopy effect. African research has indicated that these habitat differences in foliar ¹³C can be substantial enough to affect the carbon isotope ratios of resident fauna. Previous work documenting a 30-year chronology on moose teeth from Isle Royale National Park indicated a progressive depletion in¹³C and suggested that this could be due to forest regrowth following extensive burning. The present study examined the assumption implicit in this hypothesis that foliar ¹³C varies between open and closed boreal forest sites. I found a marginal canopy effect of 2 ¹³C difference between upper canopy and ground flora for a forest in northwestern Ontario and an average difference of 1.2 in under- and mid-story vegetation between closed forests and open clear-cuts. Because of these small differences, the utility of carbon isotope analysis in quantifying temporally integrated exploitation of deforested habitats will be low for northern boreal locations. In denser forests, such as those in the tropics or western North American where the canopy effect can be expected to be much greater, ¹³C analysis may still offer some promise for determining selection by wildlife of disturbed habitats.