Exploring the Links Between Science, Risk, Uncertainty, and Ethics in Regulatory Controversies About Genetically Modified Crops

Just as a stream of genetically modifiedcrops looked set to be approved for commercialproduction in the European Union, the approvalprocedure appears to have become bogged down onceagain by disagreements among and within member states.Old controversies have resurfaced in new forms. Theintractability of the issues suggests that theregulatory procedure has had too narrow a focus,leaving outside its boundary many of the morefundamental aspects that cause people in the EuropeanUnion most concern. Regulators have come underconsiderable pressure to ensure their risk assessmentdecisions are soundly science-based. Ethical issueshave been deemed to lie beyond the scope of theregulatory procedure, as a matter to be consideredseparately by professional ethicists. Yet it has beensuggested that all environmental controversies at rootinvolve disputes about fundamental ethical principles.This paper examines how the ethical issues arecurrently suppressed or sidelined. It discusses how anappreciation of systems thinking and a check on thevalues that underpin decisions, using boundary testingquestions, might contribute to a more constructiveregulatory dialogue, with ethical issues considered asintegral in a way that takes better account ofpeople's concerns.     

环境风险评价简介

本文介绍了环境风险评价的内容，方法，现状及发展趋势，并着重介绍了该类评价中污染物对人体健康危害的评价方法。     

Ethics in the Societal Debate on Genetically Modified Organisms: A (Re)Quest for Sense and Sensibility

Via a historical reconstruction, this paper primarily demonstrates how the societal debate on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) gradually extended in terms of actors involved and concerns reflected. It is argued that the implementation of recombinant DNA technology out of the laboratory and into civil society entailed a “complex of concerns.” In this complex, distinctions between environmental, agricultural, socio-economic, and ethical issues proved to be blurred. This fueled the confusion between the wider debate on genetic modification and the risk assessment of transgenic crops in the European Union. In this paper, the lasting skeptical and/or ambivalent attitude of Europeans towards agro-food biotechnology is interpreted as signaling an ongoing social request – and even a quest – for an evaluation of biotechnology with Sense and Sensibility. In this (re)quest, a broader-than-scientific dimension is sought for that allows addressing the GMO debate in a more “sensible” way, whilst making “sense” of the different stances taken in it. Here, the restyling of the European regulatory frame on transgenic agro-food products and of science communication models are discussed and taken to be indicative of the (re)quest to move from a merely scientific evaluation and risk-based policy towards a socially more robust evaluation that takes the “non-scientific” concerns at stake in the GMO debate seriously.     

我国南方某城市垃圾焚烧飞灰特性及固化/稳定化处置实验

我国南方某城市主要采用焚烧法处理生活垃圾,已建7个焚烧厂日产生飞灰量为101.62 t/d。文章分析了各个垃圾焚烧厂飞灰的化学组成和重金属浸出毒性,其主要成分为CaO、SiO2、MgO、Al2O3、Fe2O3、Na2O、SO3和Cl,所有焚烧飞灰都有至少一种重金属浸出浓度超标,属于危险废物。在飞灰处置出路亟待解决的背景下,实验探讨了飞灰稳定化工艺,结果表明10%的水泥添加量可以使飞灰中超标重金属(Cd、Pb和Zn)的浸出浓度满足危险废物鉴别浓度限值和安全填埋场入场浓度限值。同时,通过人体健康风险评价分析了飞灰豁免管理的可行性,并对近期和远期该城市焚烧厂飞灰的处理处置及管理提出建议。     

AERMOD模型在石油化工环境影响评价中的应用

以某炼油厂新建聚丙烯酰胺装置为研究对象,介绍了AERMOD模型的基本原理、操作过程和所需基本资料,并利用该模型对周围大气环境造成的影响进行了逐日逐时的预测。结果表明:预测结果与监测值具有很好的一致性,说明该模型可成功应用于国内石油化工行业区域环境影响预测。     

Putting Precaution to Debate – about the Precautionary Principle and Participatory Technology Assessment

Technology assessment (TA) as aninstitution was introduced nearly thirty yearsago as an instrument to render possible themaking of responsible decisions concerning newtechnological options. Another recentdevelopment however has been the introductionof participatory technology assessment (pTA),mainly connected to the growing insight thatthe evaluation of technological options withrespect to their risks and benefits, is not –only – a scientific question. This paper willfocus on the questions, to what degree theideas of technology assessment and thePrecautionary Principle are connected and how.Without naming it explicitly, the PrecautionaryPrinciple is put to debate in the``TA-arrangement on the cultivation oftransgenic herbicide resistant crops,'organized by the Science Centre, Berlin. Fromthe perspective of ethical clarification, someunique features concerning theconceptualization of the discoursive procedureand reconstruction of the argumentation processin order to come to results have to beanalyzed. Finally the performance and resultsof the pTA-arrangement are reflected in thelight of the Precautionary Principle andconclusions are drawn.     

Applying Ecological Risk Principles to Watershed Assessment and Management

Considerable progress in addressing point source (end of pipe) pollution problems has been made, but it is now recognized that further substantial environmental improvements depend on controlling nonpoint source pollution. A watershed approach is being used more frequently to address these problems because traditional regulatory approaches do not focus on nonpoint sources. The watershed approach is organized around the guiding principles of partnerships, geographic focus, and management based on sound science and data. This helps to focus efforts on the highest priority problems within hydrologically-defined geographic areas. Ecological risk assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze, and present scientific information to improve decision making. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored three watershed assessments and found that integrating the watershed approach with ecological risk assessment increases the use of environmental monitoring and assessment data in decision making. This paper describes the basics of the watershed approach, the ecological risk assessment process, and how these two frameworks can be integrated. The three major principles of watershed ecological risk assessment found to be most useful for increasing the use of science in decision making are (1) using assessment endpoints and conceptual models, (2) holding regular interactions between scientists and managers, and (3) developing a focus for multiple stressor analysis. Examples are provided illustrating how these principles were implemented in these assessments.     

Formulating an ecosystem approach to environmental protection

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has embraced a new strategy of environmental protection that is place-driven rather than program-driven. This new approach focuses on the protection of entire ecosystems. To develop an effective strategy of ecosystem protection, however, EPA will need to: (1) determine how to define and delineate ecosystems and (2) categorize threats to individual ecosystems and priority rank ecosystems at risk. Current definitions of ecosystem in use at EPA are inadequate for meaningful use in a management or regulatory context. A landscape-based definition that describes an ecosystem as a volumetric unit delineated by climatic and landscape features is suggested. Following this definition, ecosystems are organized hierarchically, from megaecosystems, which exist on a continental scale (e.g., Great Lakes), to small local ecosystems.Threats to ecosystems can generally be categorized as: (1) ecosystem degradation (occurs mainly through pollution) (2) ecosystem alteration (physical changes such as water diversion), and (3) ecosystem removal (e.g., conversion of wetlands or forest to urban or agricultural lands). Level of threat (i.e., how imminent), and distance from desired future condition are also important in evaluating threats to ecosystems. Category of threat, level of threat, and distance from desired future condition can be combined into a three-dimensional ranking system for ecosystems at risk. The purpose of the proposed ranking system is to suggest a preliminary framework for agencies such as EPA to prioritize responses to ecosystems at risk.     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Assessment of risk to aquatic biota from elevated salinity—A case study from the Hunter River,Australia

An ecological risk assessment was performed on salinity levels of the Hunter River and its tributaries to respond to concerns that high salinity may be damaging aquatic ecosystems. Probabilistic techniques were used to assess likelihood and consequence, and hence the risk to aquatic biota from salinity. Continuous electrical conductivity distributions were used to describe the likelihood that high salinity would occur (exposure dataset) and toxicity values were compiled from the limited literature sources available to describe the consequence of high salinity (effects dataset). The assessment was preliminary in the sense that it modelled risk on the basis of existing data and did not undertake site-specific toxicity testing.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

Risk-Based Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data: Application to Heavy Metals in North Carolina Surface Waters

The state of North Carolina's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) conducts routine water quality monitoring throughout the state to assess the health of aquatic systems. The current study reports the results of a retrospective (1990–2000) ecological risk assessment of six heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, and zinc) in 17 North Carolina basins that was conducted to estimate the risk of heavy metal toxicity to freshwater organisms and assess the sufficiency of NCDENR's monitoring data to identify water-quality-related ecological threats. Acute and chronic ecotoxicological thresholds (ETs) were calculated for each metal based upon the 10th percentile of species sensitivity distributions and were normalized for water hardness. Statewide probabilities (expressed as percentages) of a random sample exceeding acute or chronic ETs among the six metals ranged from 0.01% to 12.19% and 0.76% to 21.21%, respectively, with copper having the highest and arsenic and mercury the lowest risk. Basin-specific probabilities varied significantly depending upon water hardness and presumably watershed development. Although the majority of specific sites where data were collected were at low risk for metal toxicity, some specific sites had a high probability of toxic events associated with one or more metals. Analytical detection limits for metals were frequently higher than estimated chronic ET, limiting the ability to assess the risk of chronic toxicity in soft-water basins. Results suggest risk-based criteria may be useful for assessing and validating the sufficiency of monitoring programs and prioritizing management goals.     

Watershed surveys to support an assessment of the regional effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry

Through the Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP), the United States Environmental Protection Agency is attempting to assess the risk to surface waters from acidic deposition in three regions of the eastern United States: the Northeast Region, the Southern Blue Ridge Province, and the Mid-Appalachian Region. The central policy question being addressed by the DDRP is: Within the regions of concern, how many surface water systems (lakes, streams) will become acidic due to current or altered levels of acidic sulfur deposition, and on what time scales? The approach taken by the DDRP is to select a statistically representative set of watersheds in each region of concern and to project the future response of each watershed to various assumed levels of acidic deposition. The probability structure will then be used to extrapolate the watershed-specific results to each region. The data will be used also for statistical investigation of hypothesized relationships between current surface water chemistry and watershed characteristics. Because the needed terrestrial data base was not available, regional watershed surveys were conducted to meet the specific data needs of the DDRP. Maps (1∶24,000) of soils, vegetation, land use, depth to bedrock, and bedrock geology were made for each watershed. The soils were grouped into sampling classes based on their hypothesized response to acidic deposition. Randomized sampling of these classes provided regional means and variances of soil properties that can be applied to individual watersheds. Because of DDRP's need for consistency within and among regions, unique quality control/quality assurance activities were developed and implemented. After verification and validation, the DDRP data base will be made publicly available. This will be a unique and useful resource for others investigating watershed relationships on a regional scale. The results of these surveys and the conclusions of the DDRP will be presented in several future papers. The current paper gives an overview of the context, rationale, logistical considerations, and implementation of these surveys, with special emphasis on the field activities of watershed mapping and soil sampling. This discussion should be useful to those planning, implementing, and managing survey activities in support of regional assessments of other environmental concerns, who are likely to face similar choices and constraints.     

Using Wildlife as Receptor Species: A Landscape Approach to Ecological Risk Assessment

To assist risk assessors at the Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site (SRS), a Geographic Information System (GIS) application was developed to provide relevant information about specific receptor species of resident wildlife that can be used for ecological risk assessment. Information was obtained from an extensive literature review of publications and reports on vertebrate- and contaminant-related research since 1954 and linked to a GIS. Although this GIS is a useful tool for risk assessors because the data quality is high, it does not describe the species’ site-wide spatial distribution or life history, which may be crucial when developing a risk assessment. Specific receptor species on the SRS were modeled to provide an estimate of an overall distribution (probability of being in an area). Each model is a stand-alone tool consisting of algorithms independent of the GIS data layers to which it is applied and therefore is dynamic and will respond to changes such as habitat disturbances and natural succession. This paper describes this modeling process and demonstrates how these resource selection models can then be used to produce spatially explicit exposure estimates. This approach is a template for other large federal facilities to establish a framework for site-specific risk assessments that use wildlife species as endpoints.Current address: Biology Department, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.     

Australian local government action on climate change adaptation: some critical reflections to assist decision-making

The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the limitations of risk management as a strategy for Australian local government climate change adaptation and explore the advantages of complementary approaches, including a social-ecological resilience framework, adaptive and transition management, and vulnerability assessment. Some federal and local government initiatives addressing the limitations of risk-based approaches are introduced. We argue that conventional risk-based approaches to adaptation, largely focused on hazard identification and quantitative modelling, will be inadequate on their own for dealing with the challenges of climate change. We suggest that responses to climate change adaptation should move beyond conventional risk-based strategies to more realistically account for complex and dynamically evolving social-ecological systems.     

Field bioassessments for selecting test systems to evaluate military training lands in tallgrass prairie. Ecosystem health. V

Ecosystem responses to physical or chemical stress may vary from changes in single organisms to alteration of the structure and function of the ecosystem. These responses to stress cannol be predicted exactly. Ecosystems repeatedly exposed to physical and/or chemical stress can be used to study the separate and combined environmental effects of stress. Such studies also allow the development of procedures to select test systems for the analysis of stress in ecosystems. A preliminary field survey of six military training sites at Fort Riley, Kansas, USA, was conducted to identify and verify ecological test systems for evaluating ecosystem responses to physical and/or chemical stress. Comparisons of these data with data collected concurrently from Konza Prairie Research Natural Area reference sites showed that soil microarthropods, some species of macroarthropods, small mammals, and native earthworm species were negatively affected by stress. In contrast, plant species diversity, plant foliage biomass, soil mycorrhizae, and many soil characteristics were within the boundaries of nominal variations observed on “pristine” Konza Prairie. Introduced European earthworms appeared to be positively affected by training activities. This study provided a test of systematic procedures to support impact analysis, ecological toxicology, and ecosystem risk assessments. This is paper IX in D. J. Schaeffer's “Environmental Audit” series.     

Using Ecological Risk Assessment to Identify the Major Anthropogenic Stressor in the Waquoit Bay Watershed,Cape Cod,Massachusetts

The Waquoit Bay Watershed ecological risk assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary and interagency workgroup. This paper focuses on the steps taken to formulate the analysis plan for this watershed assessment. The workgroup initially conducted a series of meetings with the general public and local and state managers to determine environmental management objectives for the watershed. The workgroup then decided that more information was needed on the impacts of six stressors: nutrient enrichment, physical alteration of habitat, altered freshwater flow, toxic chemicals, pathogens, and fisheries harvesting. Assessment endpoints were selected to establish the link between environmental management objectives, impacts of stressors, and scientifically measurable endpoints. The following assessment endpoints were selected: estuarine eelgrass cover, scallop abundance, finfish diversity and abundance, wetland bird distribution and abundance, piping plover distribution and abundance, tissue contaminant levels, and brook trout distribution and abundance in streams. A conceptual model was developed to show the pathways between human activities, stressors, and ecological effects. The workgroup analyzed comparative risks, by first ranking stressors in terms of their potential risk to biotic resources in the watershed. Then stressors were evaluated by considering the components of stressors (e.g., the stressor chemical pollution included both heavy metals and chlorinated solvents components) in terms of intensity and extensiveness. The workgroup identified nutrient enrichment as the major stressor. Nutrient enrichment comprised both phosphorus enrichment in freshwater ponds and nitrogen enrichment within estuaries. Because phosphorus impacts were being analyzed and mitigated by the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence, this assessment focused on nitrogen. The process followed to identify the predominant stressor and focus the analyses on nitrogen impacts on eelgrass and scallops will serve as an example of how to increase the use of the findings of a watershed assessment in decision making.