GIS, modeling, and politics: on the tensions of collaborative decision support

A tension exists at the heart of efforts to support collaboration with GIS. Many scholars and practitioners seek to support two separate objectives: (1) problem solving and (2) the exploration of diverse problem understandings. GIS applications designed for problem solving often pre-define the problem space by structuring the kind of information that can be considered or the way in which the problem is conceptualized. In doing so, they necessarily privilege particular perspectives and understandings of the problem while marginalizing others. As a result, these initiatives undermine their second objective. This is problematic in the context of contentious environmental decisions which have broad-reaching impacts on people with diverse perspectives and interests. In such contexts, I argue that equitable collaboration is impossible without first emphasizing the exploration of diverse problem understandings. I support this argument theoretically by turning to the literatures on collaborative planning and spatial decision support, and empirically in my analysis of a case study of an effort to construct a GIS for supporting collaborative water resource management in rural Idaho. Reflecting upon the case, I provide a set of recommendations to those seeking to better negotiate the tensions of supporting collaboration with GIS in the context of contentious environmental and natural resource decisions.     

Developing a decision support tool for life-cycle cost assessments

Recent years have seen advancements in the development and use of life-cycle assessment (LCA) analytic techniques. Although these techniques have highlighted the power of LCA to identify the environmental consequences of a product system through its entire life cycle, they have also highlighted a major shortcoming of LCA—the lack of cost information. Because companies make daily decisions that involve trade-offs between economics and the environment, including cost information in LCA is critical for advancing its use as an overall environmental decision-making tool. This article outlines the current state of LCA methodology development, defines key life-cycle cost assessment terms and concepts, and evaluates existing cost assessment techniques with the objective of building an integrated life-cycle cost assessment tool.     

Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

Farmer decision making and spatial variables in northern Thailand

This research has two interrelated objectives. The first is to determine the extent to which a relationship exists between farmer characteristics and farming practices in three villages in northern Thailand. The second is to use standard statistical methods for incorporating spatial variables into the analysis and to assess the effects of these variables on farmer decision making. The data base includes information on the location and size of villages, roads, streams, and fields; a digital elevation model with information on elevation, slope, and aspect; and information keyed to individual fields on crops and cropping methods and the ethnicity, income, and religion of farmers. The map data (517 plots) were entered into a computerized geographic information systems (GIS). Results suggest several hypotheses about the relationships between land use and owner characteristics. More significantly, the study concludes that spatial analysis appears to be most useful when the dependent variable is either continuous or ordinal. The outlook is not quite as optimistic when the dependent variable is a nonordinal categorical variable. Before spatial analysis can be applied regularly to social science data, better computational tools need to be developed.     

River environmental decision support system development for Suzhou Creek in Shanghai

The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (SCRP) is one of the largest water-related environmental rehabilitation schemes ever undertaken in the vicinity of Shanghai, China. This paper details the development and application of a River Environmental Decision Support System (REDSS) for scientific planning and decision-making on the Suzhou Creek project, and illustrates the flexibility of the REDSS framework. We developed the following components: (1) a GIS-based analysis employing Component technology; (2) a "data mart" for multi-dimensional, multi-level, integrated, dynamic, and flexible data querying; and (3) a set of hydrodynamic and water quality models which can simulate complex tidal river networks. In addition, we detail how a water quality assessment model is embedded into the REDSS by employing an Identification Index Method. With the REDSS, all GIS and non-GIS components are integrated seamlessly and data from different sources can be queried simultaneously. This allows for various scenarios to be simulated and analyzed in advance to predict and assess the effects of proposed engineering and management measures. Generated information can thus support effective decisions. All operations of the REDSS can be implemented conveniently through user-friendly interfaces. The function of the REDSS framework is demonstrated through an application to Suzhou Creek. Because the REDSS characteristics are quite general, it may be applied in different geographic regions.     

A fuzzy knowledge-based decision support system for groundwater pollution risk evaluation

In this paper we propose a decision support system that can provide information on the environmental impact of anthropic activities by examining their effects on groundwater quality. We use the combined value of both intrinsic vulnerability of a specific local aquifer, obtained by implementing a parametric managerial model (SINTACS), and a degree of hazard value, which takes into account specific human activities. Incomplete information is notoriously common in environmental planning. To overcome this deficiency we apply an algorithmic and a qualitative approach, based on expert judgment incorporated into the system's knowledge base. The decision support system takes into account the uncertainty of the environmental domain by using fuzzy logic and evaluates the reliability of the results according to information availability.     

Development of a decision support system for Prioritization of multimedia dischargers

In 1990 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began sponsoring several pilot projects in its regional offices to examine the potential benefits of adopting a multimedia approach to facility management. This approach differs from traditional practices at EPA in that facilities (dischargers regulated under permits issued by the agency) are managed based upon their cumulative impacts to all media: air, water, and land. Currently, facilities are managed by separate programs at EPA that evaluate environmental impacts from a single-media perspective. One aspect of discharger management is the necessity to allocate limited financial resources in a way that will minimize risk to human health and the environment. A careful, risk-based prioritization of facilities is one means of providing insight to the most effective strategy of allocating monitoring, inspection, and enforcement resources. Prioritization from a multimedia perspective is particularly difficult, however, since it requires translation and integration of medium-specific facility performances, management objectives, and perceptions of risk into a cumulative rating. A computerized decision support system (DSS) designed to guide management through the prioritization process from a multimedia perspective was identified as a potentially valuable tool for use in the pilot projects. This article describes the development of such a prototype, outlines the features of the completed system, and discusses its potential for use at EPA.     

Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

LCA: A decision support tool for environmental assessment of MSW management systems

Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be successfully applied to municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems to identify the overall environmental burdens and to assess the potential environmental impacts. In this study, two methods used for current MSW management in Phuket, a province of Thailand, landfilling (without energy recovery) and incineration (with energy recovery), are compared from both energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission points of view. The comparisons are based on a direct activity consideration and also a life cycle perspective. In both cases as well as for both parameters considered, incineration was found to be superior to landfilling. However, the performance of incineration was much better when a life cycle perspective was used. Also, landfilling reversed to be superior to incineration when methane recovery and electricity production were introduced. This study reveals that a complete picture of the environmental performance of MSW management systems is provided by using a life cycle perspective.     

Integrating conflict analysis and consensus reaching in a decision support system for water resource management

The importance of shared decision processes in water management derives from the awareness of the inadequacy of traditional--i.e. engineering--approaches in dealing with complex and ill-structured problems. It is becoming increasingly obvious that traditional problem solving and decision support techniques, based on optimisation and factual knowledge, have to be combined with stakeholder based policy design and implementation. The aim of our research is the definition of an integrated decision support system for consensus achievement (IDSS-C) able to support a participative decision-making process in all its phases: problem definition and structuring, identification of the possible alternatives, formulation of participants' judgments, and consensus achievement. Furthermore, the IDSS-C aims at structuring, i.e. systematising the knowledge which has emerged during the participative process in order to make it comprehensible for the decision-makers and functional for the decision process. Problem structuring methods (PSM) and multi-group evaluation methods (MEM) have been integrated in the IDSS-C. PSM are used to support the stakeholders in providing their perspective of the problem and to elicit their interests and preferences, while MEM are used to define not only the degree of consensus for each alternative, highlighting those where the agreement is high, but also the consensus label for each alternative and the behaviour of individuals during the participative decision-making. The IDSS-C is applied experimentally to a decision process regarding the use of treated wastewater for agricultural irrigation in the Apulia Region (southern Italy).     

Multicriteria decision support in a technology competition for cleaning polluted soil in Helsinki

Due to expansion of the capital area in Finland, industrial areas are being replanned for residential and commercial use. The soil in these areas is sometimes contaminated, and must therefore be cleaned before building. In spring 1997 the City of Helsinki and the National Technology Agency of Finland declared a contract-based competition for cleaning the polluted soil of the planned Toukolanranta residential area. Nine proposals entered the competition, and the problem was to choose three best candidates for test-cleaning a small part of the region considered. The winner of the test-cleaning phase will get the contract for cleaning the whole area. The proposals were evaluated based on five criteria defined by the competition board consisting of eight experts. The finalists were chosen aided by the SMAA-2 Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis technique. SMAA-2 is a method for analysing what kind of preferences favour each alternative. This method is particularly useful in applications, where it is difficult or impossible to obtain accurate preference information. In this application SMAA-2 was observed to suit well for choosing a small set of best alternatives with different strengths and weaknesses.     

An intelligent disaster decision support system for increasing the sustainability of transport networks

The increase in extreme weather events arising from climate change is posing serious threats to the sustainability of transport systems, creating the need for improved tools for decision support for more effectively managing natural disasters. There are numerous transport‐related decisions that are required during the response, recovery and preparedness stages of the disaster management cycle. This paper describes the development and application of the Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System (IDDSS), which provides a platform for integrating a vast range of road network, traffic, geographic, economic and meteorological data, as well as dynamic disaster and transport models. Initial applications to the response and planning for floods and fires are presented to illustrate some of its capabilities. The IDDSS can be used to improve disaster management, which in turn will increase the sustainability of transport networks.     

A GIS-based decision support system for regional eco-security assessment and its application on the Tibetan Plateau

Regional eco-security assessment is an intricate, challenging task. In previous studies, the integration of eco-environmental models and geographical information systems (GIS) usually takes two approaches: loose coupling and tight coupling. However, the present study used a full coupling approach to develop a GIS-based regional eco-security assessment decision support system (ESDSS). This was achieved by merging the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) into ArcGIS 9 as a dynamic link library (DLL) using ArcObjects in ArcGIS and Visual Basic for Applications. Such an approach makes it easy to capitalize on the GIS visualization and spatial analysis functions, thereby significantly supporting the dynamic estimation of regional eco-security. A case study is presented for the Tibetan Plateau, known as the world’s “third pole” after the Arctic and Antarctic. Results verified the usefulness and feasibility of the developed method. As a useful tool, the ESDSS can also help local managers to make scientifically-based and effective decisions about Tibetan eco-environmental protection and land use.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of agro-ecological modeling for saffron plant cultivation using GIS spatial decision-making methods

The main objective of this research is to model the uncertainty associated with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for crop suitability assessment. To achieve this goal, an integrated approach using GIS-MCDA in association with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) were applied for Saffron suitability mapping in East-Azerbaijan Province in Iran. The results of this study indicated that integration of MCDA with MCS and GSA could improve modeling precision by reducing data variance. Results indicated that applying the MCS method using the local training data leads to computing the spatial correlation between criteria weights and characteristics of the study area. Results of the GSA method also allow us to obtain the priority of criteria and identify the most important criteria and the variability of outputs under uncertainty conditions for model inputs. The findings showed that, commonly used primary zoning methods, without considering the interaction effects of variables, had significant errors and uncertainty in the output of MCDA-based suitability models, which should be minimized by the advanced complementarity of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.     

Integrated environmental monitoring and simulation system for use as a management decision support tool in urban areas

Leachates are generated as a result of water or other liquid passing through waste at a landfill site. These contaminated liquids originate from a number of sources, including the water produced during the decomposition of the waste as well as rain-fall which penetrates the waste and dissolves the material with which it comes into contact. The penetration of the rain-water depends on the nature of the landfill (e.g. surface characteristics, type and quantity of vegetation, gradient of layers, etc). The uncontrolled infiltration of leachate into the vadose (unsaturated) zone and finally into the saturated zone (groundwater) is considered to be the most serious environmental impact of a landfill. In the present paper the water flow and the pollutant transport characteristics of the Ano Liosia Landfill site in Athens (Greece) were simulated by creating a model of groundwater flows and contaminant transport. A methodology for the model is presented. The model was then integrated into the Ecosim system which is a prototype funded by the EU, (Directorate General XIII: Telematics and Environment). This is an integrated environmental monitoring and modeling system, which supports the management of environmental planning in urban areas.     

Informing the development of decision support tools for risk management: the case of electrical and magnetic fields

This paper describes tools developed through a community consultative process to help decision makers manage electrical and magnetic fields (EMF) health risk. The process involved in‐depth interviews with experts (N=12) and focus group discussions with seven different stakeholder groups. The results reveal commonly held intense public concerns about the long‐term health effects of EMF. These concerns were further reinforced by the lack of public trust in both government and industry with regards to EMF risk management. Overall, the participants wanted tools that can be used to manage EMF information, scientific uncertainty about EMF and the complex environment in which EMF issues are embedded. The findings contributed to a mapping out of response formats to address public concerns related to risk, hazard, trust, accountability and fairness across a range of stakeholder groups. These tools and their roles in the management of complex and variable risks, involving new circumstances (e.g. privatization) and information (e.g. new scientific studies) are presented. The importance of recognizing and working with uncertainty through adaptive management strategies, using qualitative approaches, is also discussed.