邓楠理事长在中国可持续发展研究会2007年学术年会上的致辞

各位代表、各位来宾： 大家好! 首先，我代表中国可持续发展研究会对参加2007年学术年会的嘉宾、专家与学者表示热烈的欢迎，向多年来支持和致力于研究会工作的各界领导、各位同仁表示衷心的感谢!     

沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位，然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性，即同等灾害强度下，沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度，分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面，顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势，依据一定的原则，不分灾种，面对区域和人群，选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系，利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定，建立了脆弱性模型，并在收集和标准化数据的基础上，以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明，模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科科学依据，有一定的参考价值。     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

用水户参与灌溉管理模式运行机制与绩效实证分析

我国是一个水资源非常短缺的国家。推行用水户参与灌溉管理（SIDD）模式是解决这一难题的重要措施之一。SIDD管理模式运行机制可以从产权制度安排、运营制度安排、激励制度安排、组织制度安排等进行分析，其运行绩效体现在用水机制、管理方式、交易成本降低等方面。结合江苏皂河灌区管理体制改革，分析了SIDD管理模式的运行机制、绩效及存在的问题。为完善这一管理模式．主要的建议是：制订相关的规章制度，使农户广泛参与；建立多元化的投入机制．拓宽资金来源渠道；遵循市场经济运作机制，深化农业水价改革；明确政府职能。加强指导、服务和监管。     

乡村道路收益评估分析

乡村道路建设对于农村的经济发展、降低贫困等具有重要意义,对于如何评价乡村道路收益一直以来都存在着争议。传统的成本-效益分析方法具体来说有消费者剩余方法、生产者剩余方法等,但是由于这些方法都存在共同的缺陷,即不适合衡量交通流量小的地区乡村道路收益,对乡村道路收益的衡量依然存在低估的问题,引起了诸多学者的批评。本文通过构建新的计量经济学方法,利用对湖北农村家庭的实际调查数据,发现乡村道路建设可以有效地节约农村家庭交通成本、提高男性和女性劳动力的农业工资水平、提高学龄儿童的入学率、降低农业和非农业生产投入产品的价格等,对农村家庭具有重要的即时和长期的正向利益影响。     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s     

Research on the development and planning of renewable energy in Tibet

With the rapid social and economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region,the situation in regard to energy supply and demand is increasingly tense.Meanwhile,the development of renewable energy in Tibet has been given considerable practical significance by its peculiar ecological environment.Given the complementarity of renewable energies in Tibet,using the method of factor analysis,we derived four major factors:level of economic development,social development,industrial development,and energy endowment,which help to evaluate development conditions in different regions of Tibet.Treating these four factors equally,we used the hierarchical clustering method to determine the order of regional development.Thus we acquire a three-stage planning project for renewable energy.In the first stage,Lhasa plays a leading role in promoting the development of renewable energy,particularly that based on solar and wind energy.There are two phases in the second stage,the first being to simultaneously develop solar and wind energy in Xigaze and Nyingchi.The second is to develop solar and wind energy in accordance with the time of year in Qamdo,Nagqu,and Ali,with 1.145billion kWh electricity to be generated.The third stage is to develop energy production in Lhoka Prefecture,with 1.369billion kWh electricity to be generated.At the end of the three-stage project,consumption of available electricity will have reached 4.045 billion kwh,with major social and economic benefits.     

经济增长下的渤海环境容量预测

据1999，2002—2005年渤海活性磷酸盐、石油类、无机氮的水质监测资料。采用箱式模型。估算渤海及各分区现状下及不同经济增长率下的环境容量预测值。估算结果显示．分污染物来看，各年份均是无机氮较大，石油类次之．活性磷酸盐较小；分区域来看。各年份各污染物均是渤海中部较大，辽东湾、渤海湾次之，莱州湾最小；从时间变化来看。除活性磷酸盐外。石油类和无机氯自2002年到2004年逐年减小。假设渤海污染物排入量随着经济增长每年增加5％。以达到环境容量极限值需要的年数来看。自2005年。分别在7年、4年、17年后渤海的石油类、活性磷酸盐、无机氮将达不到一类水质标准，50年、19年、37年后超过四类水质下环境容量极限值；假设随着经济增长污染物排海量每年增长10％，那么自2005年起。29年、13年和22年后三种污染物将超过四类水质下环境容量极限值。     

不同气候保护政策的模拟对比研究

气候变化问题已经成为制约经济发展、影响社会福利的重要因素。如何在经济稳定发展的前提下实行有效的气候保护政策是一个重要的研究课题。以State-Contingent模型和Demeter模型为基础建立一个宏观动态模型。该模型主要包括三个模块：宏观经济模块．气候变化模块．人地关系协调的决策选择模块．以此分析不同气候保护政策对经济的影响。模型在考虑了增汇、技术进步等因素的基础上．针对生产型、增汇型、能源替代型三种气候保护政策作了模拟情景分析。通过模拟计算得到在不实施任何气候保护政策下中国历年的CO2排放和GDP、效用等结果，然后与实施不同气候保护政策所得结果进行比较。研究发现在实行单一气候保护政策时。增汇型政策和能源替代型政策远优于生产型替代政策；而混合型政策要优于任何单一政策。     

Coal-based transformation of cities in Shandong Province,China

This article primarily discusses the issue of realizing sustainable development in Shandong Province, China through transformation. It compares the global energy structure to China’s, as well as among regions and provinces within China. The article takes six cities in Shandong Province as typical objectives, and then using principal component analysis it calculates their flexibility in regard to city shift and restructuring. The main purpose was to quantify the impact of economic activities triggered by the coal industry, a.k.a the energy economic nexus, and to assess the flexibility and sustainability in transformation among the observed coal-based cities.     

甘肃省"资源-环境-经济系统"动态仿真研究

立足于生态经济理论,利用系统模型方法。构建了对有关区域发展政策的可能结果进行动态仿真的模拟实验室。对甘肃省“资源-环境-经济”系统运行规律进行探索和实证研究。旨在描述甘肃省“资源-环境-经济系统”可能的运行情景。为甘肃省的可持续发展决策提供参考。模型运行的结果表明：甘肃省目前的发展模式是不可持续的；技术对自然资源表现为弱可替代性；转变经济发展模式是实现甘肃省可持续发展的唯一途径。     

Decentralization,spatial disequilibrium,and restructuring of coastal tourist destination-Empirical research from Sanya,China

The objective of this article is to speculate on resort restructuring in the market-oriented reform process in China.Previous studies show that spatial disequilibrium was aggravated by decentralization,which leads to the difference in tourism policy and investment,public goods,and service;a profound analytical framework is much needed for further empirical studies.This article has reviewed the relevant studies on links between decentralization and restructuring,spatial influences of decentralization on tourism,based on which we put forward the theoretical framework of resort spatial restructuring from the view of political economy analysis,then we elaborate on and discuss it based on the example of Sanya,China.In short,the article suggests that decentralization of fiscal responsibilities and institutional power contributes to the spatial disequilibrium of tourism industrial structure,land use,public infrastructure and service facilities,and to community inequality.Interests of government,investors,and community should be comprehensively coordinated in the resort spatial restructuring process from three aspects:restructuring government,optimizing space structure,and tourism industry.Furthermore,we argue that resort restructuring in the context of Sanya requires coordination of various interest groups through four ways:restructure the government power under administrative division adjustment,optimizing spatial structure,expanding industrial space to diversified tourism products,and building resort management services organization.Finally,we discussed some policy requirements for resort sustainable development.     

Formaldehyde in China: Production, consumption, exposure levels, and health effects

Formaldehyde, an economically important chemical, is classified as a human carcinogen that causes nasopharyngeal cancer and probably leukemia. As China is the largest producer and consumer of formaldehyde in the world, the Chinese population is potentially at increased risk for cancer and other associated health effects. In this paper we review formaldehyde production, consumption, exposure, and health effects in China. We collected and analyzed over 200 Chinese and English documents from scientific journals, selected newspapers, government publications, and websites pertaining to formaldehyde and its subsequent health effects.Over the last 20 years, China's formaldehyde industry has experienced unprecedented growth, and now produces and consumes one-third of the world's formaldehyde. More than 65% of the Chinese formaldehyde output is used to produce resins mainly found in wood products — the major source of indoor pollution in China. Although the Chinese government has issued a series of standards to regulate formaldehyde exposure, concentrations in homes, office buildings, workshops, public places, and food often exceed the national standards. In addition, there have been numerous reports of formaldehyde-induced health problems, including poisoning and cancer. The lack of quality epidemiological studies and basic data on exposed populations emphasizes the need for more extensive studies on formaldehyde and its related health effects in China.     

Countermeasures of Implementing Sustainable Development Strategy in Shandong, China

This paper set forth the goals of implementing sustainable development strategy in Shandong Province guided by the view of scientific development of being people oriented, comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable. Based on the target of sustainable development strategy in Shandong province this paper discusses the main tasks in the sustainable development strategy Countermeasures for sustainable development strategy in Shandong province are put forward.     

Occurrence,removal and bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens in Dianchi Lake catchment,China

The occurrence, removal and bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens such as the natural estrone (E1), 17β-estradiol (E2) and estriol (E3), as well as the synthetic 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2) were investigated in Dianchi Lake catchment, China. The results show that traditional secondary treatment processes in eight sewage treatment plants (STPs) of Kunming were not efficient enough to completely remove steroid estrogens, but ultraviolet (UV) photodegradation in advanced treatment displayed more effectively for the removal of the residual compounds. The amount of total steroid estrogens (∑ SEs) discharged to Dianchi Lake catchment by the eight STPs was 35.8 g/day, in which STP-3 was the dominant source, accounting for 50.8%. Because of the pollution input from treated and untreated sewages, estrogens were widely detected in surface water and sediment samples collected from 21 inflow rivers of Dianchi Lake, 10 National Surface Water Quality Monitoring Sites of the lake itself and its unique outflow river, with the mean concentration of ∑ SEs in the range of 5.3–798.2 ng/L (water) and 3.7–202.4 ng/g (dry weight, sediment), 1.5–39.2 ng/L (water) and 2.7–20.9 ng/g (sediment), and 4.2 ng/L (water) and 6.6 ng/g (sediment), respectively. Due to the continuous input of estrogens to Dianchi Lake from STPs and inflow rivers, present estrogen levels in various tissues of wild fish species sampled from the lake (2013) were higher than the values detected in the previous years (2009 and 2010). The bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens in wild fish species from different sampling sites was in the order of STP-5 > Dianchi Lake (2013) > Dianchi Lake (2010) ≈ Dianchi Lake (2009) ≫ field control > laboratory control, which is mainly affected by exposure concentrations. By employing risk quotient (RQ), it is found that eco-toxicological risk of steroid estrogens in Dianchi Lake catchment was in a sequence of 22 rivers > effluents of eight STPs > Dianchi Lake (2013) > Dianchi Lake (2010), and high RQs were found in EE2, which should be controlled preferentially in this catchment.     

Land institution of China: overall framework,structural evolution,and regulation intensity

China’s land institution can be defined broadly or narrowly. By examining the broad definition of the land institution, we found that there were prerequisite, complementary, and substitutional relationships among the various systems. These relationships were verified through discussion of the structural evolution of each system. Based on these relationships, three methods for quantification were used to measure the regulation intensity and intra-provincial differences in each system among 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China in 2014. The statistics analysis shows that provinces used to pursue outstanding performances in land institution but few provinces could outperform the other provinces in all types of systems. The statistics results also indicate that the provinces which executed land institution earlier often hold significant advantages in institutional innovations but it is still not clear whether they can maintain the advantages. This study recommends that the Chinese government should improve the overall framework of regional land institution based on land systems’ relationships and evolutionary patterns. Furthermore, the government should optimize the spatial distribution of regional land institution based on the intra-provincial differences in land-regulation intensity.     

Sand-dust Storm, Population and Environment in Northwest China

Sand-dust storms are the result of the integrated influences of climate, geography, society and human factors. A theoretical framework is built to explain the coherence of population growth, agriculture change and environmental degradation. On the basis of the analysis of the causes of the sand-dust storm in terms of human factors, a discussion will be given to show that these factors are internally consistent with the theoretical framework. After that, it will look at China's Agenda 21 and try to find relevant measures to reduce such large sand-dust storms happening in Northwest China and eventually make this area develop sustainably.     

Sand-dust Storm,Population and Environment in Northwest China

Abstract

Sand-dust storms are the result of the integrated influences of climate, geography, society and human factors. A theoretical framework is built to explain the coherence of population growth, agriculture change and environmental degradation. On the basis of the analysis of the causes of the sand-dust storm in terms of human factors, a discussion will be given to show that these factors are internally consistent with the theoretical framework. After that, it will look at China's Agenda 21 and try to find relevant measures to reduce such large sand-dust storms happening in Northwest China and eventually make this area develop sustainably.