Climate Policy to Defeat the Green Paradox

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO₂ emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of ‘backfiring’ and actually increasing CO₂ emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.     

Governance of Complex Socio-Environmental Risks: The Case of Hazardous Chemicals in the Baltic Sea

Complex socio-environmental risks challenge society. In response to scientific uncertainty and socio-political controversies, environmental governance, precaution, and the ecosystem approach to management are held forward as complements to governmental risk-based sector-restricted regulation. We analyze this development for hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea. Based on interviews and policy analysis, we study informal governance and, in particular, four central EU and international policies, and investigate how present governance relates to risks and objectives at hand. While showing emergence of broader governance approaches, we conclude that central objectives will not likely be met. Furthermore, we question the quest for broad environmental governance and emphasize the value of command and control regulation, if it implements precaution. These findings contribute to the theorizing on environmental (risk) governance. Finally, we provide some ideas that could help development and implementation of risk policies for hazardous chemicals in the Baltic Sea as well as other complex risks.     

A two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for waste management under uncertainty

This study introduces a two-stage interval-stochastic programming (TISP) model for the planning of solid-waste management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the concept of two-stage stochastic programming within an interval-parameter optimization framework. The approach has the advantage that policy determined by the authorities, and uncertain information expressed as intervals and probability distributions, can be effectively communicated into the optimization processes and resulting solutions. In the modeling formulation, penalties are imposed when policies expressed as allowable waste-loading levels are violated. In its solution algorithm, the TISP model is converted into two deterministic submodels, which correspond to the lower and upper bounds for the desired objective-function value. Interval solutions, which are stable in the given decision space with associated levels of system-failure risk, can then be obtained by solving the two submodels sequentially. Two special characteristics of the proposed approach make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. First, the TISP model provides a linkage to predefined policies determined by authorities that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; second, it furnishes the reflection of uncertainties presented as both probabilities and intervals. The developed model is applied to a hypothetical case study of regional solid-waste management. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They provide desired waste-flow patterns with minimized system costs and maximized system feasibility. The solutions present as stable interval solutions with different risk levels in violating the waste-loading criterion and can be used for generating decision alternatives.     

Long-Term Trends in Ambient Lead Levels at Five Locations in New Jersey

The authors conducted a survey based on conjoint choice experiments in Milan, Italy, about mortality risk reductions delivered by hypothetical private behaviors and public programs, and used it to estimate the value of a prevented fatality (VPF) when the cause of death is cancer. Their estimate of the VPF is €4.2 million. The VPF is about €1 million larger when the risk reduction is delivered by a public program, but further analyses reveal that it is so only when the respondent believes that public programs are effective at reducing this particular type of mortality risk. This estimate of the VPF is higher than generic European Union–wide figures recommended by the European Commission Directorate-General for Environment (DG Environment) for environmental policy analyses, and is comparable to other VPFs that are appropriate for Italy, hazardous waste regulations, and enforcement-based cleanup programs. The authors use their VPF to compute the benefits of addressing leaking landfills, illegal disposal of hazardous wastes, and poor hazardous waste management practices in the provinces of Naples and Caserta in southern Italy. The authors also examine the importance of the discount rates, since the mortality benefits of remediation begin in 20 yr and are assumed to continue over 30 yr.

Implications: Cost-benefit analysis that includes monetized nonmarket goods and services such as adverse health and premature mortality effects has become a standard tool in project appraisal and policy decision-making. The authors' estimates of the mortality benefits of cleaning up hazardous waste sites in a region of southern Italy are much larger than previous calculations that relied on the guidelines by DG Environment, raising concerns that using one VPF for all member countries of the European Union, and/or VPF figures estimated in a private risk reduction setting, might considerably underestimate the benefits of cleanup policies.     

81st APCA Annual Meeting & Exhibition

Abstract

This study introduces a two-stage interval-stochastic programming (TISP) model for the planning of solid-waste management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the concept of two-stage stochastic programming within an interval-parameter optimization framework. The approach has the advantage that policy determined by the authorities, and uncertain information expressed as intervals and probability distributions, can be effectively communicated into the optimization processes and resulting solutions. In the modeling formulation, penalties are imposed when policies expressed as allowable waste-loading levels are violated. In its solution algorithm, the TISP model is converted into two deterministic submodels, which correspond to the lower and upper bounds for the desired objective-function value. Interval solutions, which are stable in the given decision space with associated levels of system-failure risk, can then be obtained by solving the two submodels sequentially. Two special characteristics of the proposed approach make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. First, the TISP model provides a linkage to prede?ned policies determined by authorities that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; second, it furnishes the reflection of uncertainties presented as both probabilities and intervals. The developed model is applied to a hypothetical case study of regional solid-waste management. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They provide desired waste-flow patterns with minimized system costs and maximized system feasibility. The solutions present as stable interval solutions with different risk levels in violating the waste-loading criterion and can be used for generating decision alternatives.     

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario.

Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.     

Optimal restrictions on vehicle use for urban sustainability for Mexico City

This paper describes and develops the conditions that make the demand side policy of vehicle use restrictions part of a cost-effective set of environmental control policies. Mexico City's experience with vehicle use restrictions is described and its failure analysed. It is argued that Mexico City took a step in the right direction, but failed to make the restrictions flexible, thereby making the policy perverse. A programme of tradable vehicle use permits is presented and described that would provide the needed flexibility and promote urban sustainability.     

The U.S. Experience in Promoting Sustainable Chemistry (9 pp)

- Sustainable chemistry - Section editors: Klaus Günter Steinhäuser, Steffi Richter, Petra Greiner, Jutta Penning, Michael AngrickBackground, Aim and Scope Recent developments in European chemicals policy, including the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) proposal, provide a unique opportunity to examine the U.S. experience in promoting sustainable chemistry as well as the strengths and weaknesses of existing policies. Indeed, the problems of industrial chemicals and limitations in current regulatory approaches to address chemical risks are strikingly similar on both sides of the Atlantic. We provide an overview of the U.S. regulatory system for chemicals management and its relationship to efforts promoting sustainable chemistry. We examine federal and state and examine lessons learned from this system that can be applied to developing more integrated, sustainable approaches to chemicals management.Main Features There is truly no one U.S. chemicals policy, but rather a series of different un-integrated policies at the federal, regional, state and local levels. While centerpiece U.S. Chemicals Policy, the Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, has resulted in the development of a comprehensive, efficient rapid screening process for new chemicals, agency action to manage existing chemicals has been very limited. The agency, however, has engaged in a number of successful, though highly underfunded, voluntary data collection, pollution prevention, and sustainable design programs that have been important motivators for sustainable chemistry. Policy innovation in the establishment of numerous state level initiatives on persistent and bioaccumulative toxics, chemical restrictions and toxics use reduction have resulted in pressure on the federal government to augment its efforts.Results and Conclusions It is clear that data collection on chemical risks and phase-outs of the most egregious chemicals alone will not achieve the goals of sustainable chemistry. These alone will also not internalize the cultural and institutional changes needed to ensure that design and implementation of safer chemicals, processes, and products are the focus of the future. Thus, a more holistic approach of ‘carrots and sticks’ – that involves not just chemical producers but those who use and purchase chemicals is necessary. Some important lessons of the US experience in chemicals management include: (1) the need for good information on chemicals flows, toxic risks, and safer substances.; (2) the need for comprehensive planning processes for chemical substitution and reduction to avoid risk trade-offs and ensure product quality; (3) the need for technical and research support to firms for innovation in safer chemistry; and (4) the need for rapid screening processes and tools for comparison of alternative chemicals, materials, and products.     

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Implications: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.     

Reconciling different approaches to environmental management

Environmental management is often regarded as the domain of the natural scientist with decision criteria developed within strict methodological boundaries. The argument is put forward that economic criteria have tried to emulate scientific methodology to the exclusion of important socio-economic factors. Concern over the monetary valuation of the environment has lead to calls for cost-effectiveness as the safe alternative. However, this approach is shown to be no different from cost-benefit analysis in its conception of value and therefore an inadequate response to the concerns driving the original criticism of environmental economics. Both socio-economic and scientific perspectives are necessary in the formulation of environmental policy. This then requires individual researchers to be open-minded in their work, rather than relying on institutional groupings of mono-disciplinary individuals to carry the responsibility for interdisciplinary research.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

Four perspectives on population policies

This policy study placed population policies into the wider context of North-South relations and sustainable development policies by presenting four perspectives regarding this topic: The Lipservice for Solidarity Perspective is characterized by well-meaning pledges and rhetoric by industrialized countries, but it lacks a serious follow-up; The Blame the Rich Perspective puts too much emphasis on individual women's reproductive rights and industrialized countries' policy failures, while it tends to overlook ancient local constraints on women's empowerment, which are rooted in cultural and socioeconomic behavioural patterns and make exercising women's rights illusory; The Sustainable Development Perspective is considered to be on the right track, but population priorities tend to get lost among many other objectives; The Intergenerational Perspective is seen as the preferred analytical framework, because it focuses on collective aspects of the development process, and on the ecosystem's carrying capacity.     

Charged Fog Technology Part II: Prototype Tests of a New Charged Fog Generator for Fugitive Emission Control

The prototype charged fog generator described in a preceding paper¹ was field tested on a fugitive emission source at a bentonite ore processing plant in Worland, Wyoming, during 1981. Participate matter samples were collected as fine and coarse fractions under three different test scenarios: with no control, with partial control (uncharged fog), and with full control (charged fog). Measured particulate matter sample concentrations were normalized for each test day with respect to the background values so that particle control efficiency of the device could be evaluated without any bias during the entire test program.

These tests have shown that mean value of the inhalable particle control efficiency of charged fog measured under all instrument settings and field conditions is increased by 78% when compared with uncharged fog. In particular, fine particle control efficiencies of over 90% were recorded under optimum instrument settings and ideal field conditions. The bentonite particles seemed to carry a net positive charge. The optimum instrument settings were found to be: 60 L/h water flow rate, an applied voltage of 10-15 kV and a spray pattern which covers maximum volume of dust-laden air. Ideal field conditions are high relative humidity and calm or low winds.

Charged fog technology appears to be an effective and economically feasible method to control sources of fugitive particle emission in the inhalable size range. Further research is needed to evaluate the inhalable particle control efficiency of the device for emissions of various chemical compositions.     

The cost-effectiveness of life-saving interventions in Japan. Do chemical regulations cost too much?

This paper compares the cost-effectiveness of life-saving interventions in Japan, based on information collected from the health, safety and environmental literature. More than 50 life-saving interventions are analyzed. Cost-effectiveness is defined as the cost per life-year saved or as the cost per quality-adjusted life-year saved. Finding a large cost-effectiveness disparity between chemical controls and health care intervention, we raise the question of whether chemical regulations cost society too much. We point out the limitations of this study and propose a way to improve the incorporation of morbidity effects in cost-effectiveness analysis.     

Evolution of particulate regulation in China--prospects and challenges of exposure-based control

China's urban and rural populations face very serious health risks from combustion particles. Major sources of exposure to inhalable particulates include the burning solid fuels (biomass and coal) for household cooking and heating, coal-fired industrial and residential boilers, tobacco smoking, and diesel motor vehicles. China began to address particulate pollution problems over 25 years ago and has implemented a series of progressively more aggressive policies. This paper reviews the successes and limitations of past and existing policies for particulate controls, as well as the effects of China's economic reforms and energy policies on particulate exposure and pollution management. We examine the challenge of emissions reporting, required as part of both China's pollution levy system and emerging system for "total emissions control." Finally, we discuss practical steps toward exposure-based regulation of particulates, which would take advantage of the high cost-effectiveness for lifesaving of controlling particulate exposure from household and neighborhood sources relative to that of controlling exposure from industrial sources.     

Will PM control undermine China's efforts to reduce soil acidification?

China’s strategies to control acidifying pollutants and particulate matter (PM) may be in conflict for soil acidification abatement. Acidifying pollutant emissions are estimated for 2005 and 2020 with anticipated control policies. PM emissions including base cations (BCs) are evaluated with two scenarios, a base case applying existing policy to 2020, and a control case including anticipated tightened measures. Depositions of sulfur (S), nitrogen (N) and BCs are simulated and their acidification risks are evaluated with critical load (CL). In 2005, the area exceeding CL covered 15.6% of mainland China, with total exceedance of 2.2 Mt S. These values decrease in the base scenario 2020, implying partial recovery from acidification. Under more realistic PM control, the respective estimates are 17.9% and 2.4 Mt S, indicating increased acidification risks due to abatement of acid-neutralizing BCs. China’s anthropogenic PM abatement will have potentially stronger chemical implications for acidification than developed countries.     

Air emissions of ammonia and methane from livestock operations: valuation and policy options

The animal husbandry industry is a major emitter of ammonia (NH3), which is a precursor of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)--arguably, the number-one environment-related public health threat facing the nation. The industry is also a major emitter of methane (CH4), which is an important greenhouse gas (GHG). We present an integrated process model of the engineering economics of technologies to reduce NH3 and CH4 emissions at dairy operations in California. Three policy options are explored: PM offset credits for NH3 control, GHG offset credits for CH4 control, and expanded net metering policies to provide revenue for the sale of electricity generated from captured methane (CH4) gas. Individually these policies vary substantially in the economic incentives they provide for farm operators to reduce emissions. We report on initial steps to fully develop the integrated process model that will provide guidance for policy-makers.     

Evaluation of carbon emission reductions promoted by private driving restrictions based on automatic fare collection data in Beijing,China

Public transportation automatic fare collection (AFC) systems are able to continuously record large amounts of passenger travel information, providing massive, low-cost data for research on regulations pertaining to public transport. These data can be used not only to analyze characteristics of passengers’ trips but also to evaluate transport policies that promote a travel mode shift and emission reduction. In this study, models combining card, survey, and geographic information systems (GIS) data are established with a research focus on the private driving restriction policies being implemented in an ever-increasing number of cities. The study aims to evaluate the impact of these policies on the travel mode shift, as well as relevant carbon emission reductions. The private driving restriction policy implemented in Beijing is taken as an example. The impact of the restriction policy on the travel mode shift from cars to subways is analyzed through a model based on metro AFC data. The routing paths of these passengers are also analyzed based on the GIS method and on survey data, while associated carbon emission reductions are estimated. The analysis method used in this study can provide reference for the application of big data in evaluating transport policies.

Implications: Motor vehicles have become the most prevalent source of emissions and subsequently air pollution within Chinese cities. The evaluation of the effects of driving restriction policies on the travel mode shift and vehicle emissions will be useful for other cities in the future. Transport big data, playing an important support role in estimating the travel mode shift and emission reduction considered, can help related departments to estimate the effects of traffic jam alleviation and environment improvement before the implementation of these restriction policies and provide a reference for relevant decisions.     

Marine spatial planning: Coordinating divergent marine interests

Globally, ecosystem-based marine spatial planning has become a useful instrument to coordinate the planning of different authorities. This, for balancing different requirements when managing marine areas and space. In the planning process, ecology is setting limits to which human activities are acceptable to the society. The use of the marine environment can be planned similarly as the land environment. We argue that there are several aspects which must be taken into consideration. Marine activities have traditionally been planned and managed in a sectoral way. Today, it has become obvious that a more holistic, multi-sectoral and coordinated approach is needed in future successful marine planning and management. The increased awareness of the importance of the oceans and seas challenges the traditional sector division and geographical limits in marine policy and calls for better coordinated and coherent marine policies.