林业产业发展与森林资源保护

随着人类对自然环境和森林资源的过度利用和肆意破坏,全球范围内的生态危机日益加剧,森林作为自然生态系统的主体之一,承担着促进自然环境和谐发展的重大使命,因此如何在保护森林资源的基础上加快林业产业发展是摆在人类面前的重大问题。本文主要分析了林业产业发展与森林资源保护之间的辩证关系,并着重指出了促进林业产业发展与森林资源保护的重要措施。     

黑龙江省森林生态系统可持续发展的途径与措施

从生态可持续发展的角度,分析了黑龙江省森林资源可持续发展中存在的问题与实现可持续发展的根本途径及有效措施,特别对森林资源的国际合作与国内南北联合进行了重点分析.     

基于碳密度-林龄关系的黑龙江省森林碳汇潜力预测

为了量化黑龙江省森林碳储量、预测森林碳汇潜力,利用蓄积量-生物量相关方程法对黑龙江省1994-2013年的森林碳储量进行估算,并依据1994-2013年4次全国森林资源清查中黑龙江省18种主要森林类型各林龄组数据,建立主要森林类型碳密度与林龄之间的关系;在此基础上,结合《黑龙江省林地保护利用规划（2010-2020）》预测2014-2020年黑龙江省森林的碳储量,并分析其碳汇潜力.结果表明:黑龙江省各森林类型碳密度与林龄关系拟合较好,18种森林类型中有14个的R2大于0.9;黑龙江省1994-2013年4次森林资源清查中森林碳储量分别为693.2、676.3、741.1和805.2 Tg;预计在第九次全国森林资源清查（2014-2018年）中,黑龙江森林碳储量将达到844.0 Tg,并且在预估期间其碳储量逐年递增,2020年将达到868.1 Tg.如果2013年黑龙江省现有森林都达到过熟林,其碳储量将会达到1.40×103 Tg,具有很高的碳汇潜力.为了进一步增加黑龙江省碳汇潜力,建议加强省内寒温带、温带山地针叶林和阔叶混交林的保护;在更新造林上要侧重于有固碳优势的森林类型（如赤松、杨树等）;加大对赤松、针阔混等近熟林、成熟林的保护力度,控制过熟林的数量.      

中国森林资源可持续发展问题的探讨

森林资源的可持续发展是林业和国家经济、社会、环境协调发展的基础。为使森林资源可持续发展战略建立在坚实的基础上，本文论述了森林资源可持续发展的优势所在，探讨了我国森林资源发展中存在的问题，分析了产生问题的原因。     

四川省森林资源动态变化及其影响因素分析

四川省森林资源在长江上游生态屏障建设和长江经济带发展中具有举足轻重的地位,其动态变化特征及其影响因素对区域生态文明建设乃至全国生态安全格局具有重要的理论和现实意义.针对四川省近20 a森林资源动态变化,选取森林面积、人均森林面积、森林蓄积量、活立木蓄积量、人工造林面积5个森林资源指标,GDP、人均GDP、年末常住人口、城镇化率4个社会经济因素指标,以及年平均降水量、年平均相对湿度、年平均气温和森林火灾总面积等自然因素指标进行相关性分析.结果表明:四川省GDP、人均GDP、城镇化率和年平均气温都对森林资源变化起正向促进作用,具体表现为城镇化率>人均GDP>GDP>年平均相对湿度>年平均气温(P<0.05),而年平均相对湿度则对森林资源的增长起限制作用;四川省施行的政策在森林资源的变化中也起到很大引导作用.根据森林面积空间变化分析,2005—2010年四川盆地西北部和川南山地区主要以增加为主,西部横断山区森林面积增加和减少的量相当;2010—2015年森林面积发生变化的区域整体向东南方向转移,主要集中在四川盆地内部.四川省耕地和草地是林地面积增加主要的来源地类,耕地和灌木是林地面积消耗最主要的地类.     

区域环境保护费用和效益灰色预测分析

本文引入灰色系统理论中的灰色预测方法,对“九五”期间黑龙江省环境保护费用和效益进行预测分析,从而为我省今后制定环境保护投资方案提供了参考依据。     

灰色系统GM(1,1)与多元回归分析耦合用于拉萨市大气NO2的预测

根据拉萨市(1992-1998年)NO2、全市工业总产值和平均车流量的历史资料,用灰色系统GM(1,1)与多元回归分析模型耦合预测拉萨市大气中NO2的浓度.结果表明,到2010年拉萨市大气中NO2浓度将是1992年的6.3倍,大气中NO2浓度呈上升趋势.预测值表明,这种预测方法是可行的,可为政府管理和制定规划提供科学依据.     

应用马尔可夫链分析预测福建以林为主的土地利用趋势

土地利用状况的研究是国土整治及林业发展规划的重要研究内容,本文根据森林资源连续清查的资料,应用马尔可夫链理论,建立预测模型,分析、预测土壤利用的动态状况,提出宏观控制的对策,为土地利用规划,林业生产决策提供科学的方法与依据。     

应用马尔可夫链分析预测福建以林为主的土地利用趋势

土地利用状况的研究是国土整治及林业发展规划的重要研究内容,本文根据森林资源连续清查的资料,应用马尔可夫链理论,建立预测模型,分析、预测土壤利用的动态状况,提出宏观控制的对策,为土地利用规划,林业生产决策提供科学的方法与依据。     

基于灰色神经网络的有机涂层寿命预测研究

暴露于大气腐蚀环境下的有机涂层使用寿命涉及因素繁多,难于精确预测.基于灰色理论和人工神经网络理论,建立了灰色神经网络模型对有机涂层腐蚀面积进行预测,进而预测其寿命.通过飞机结构模拟试验件加速腐蚀试验后的有机涂层寿命预测实例检验,发现灰色神经网络模型预测有机涂层寿命精度较高,结果理想.     

森林资源资产负债表核算系统研究

森林资源是重要的自然资源,编制森林资源资产负债表,将森林资源管理纳入生态文明绩效评价考核体系,对实现可持续发展和保障生态安全具有重要意义。本文在分析森林资源核算研究进展的基础上,将森林资源资产负债表定位于服务各级政府森林资源资产管理的信息系统,借鉴会计理论与方法,结合中国森林资源管理的特点,构建了森林资源资产负债表核算系统。核算系统主要包括：森林资源资产负债表核算要素的界定和确认标准,森林资源资产、森林资源负债、森林资源净权益的核算账户设置,森林资源资产负债表、森林资源资产变动表、森林资源权益变动表的表式,以资源调查数据和资源变动数据为基础的动态核算流程,以及复式记账的核算方法。通过核算系统,实现以年度为核算周期编制森林资源资产负债表。     

Matching national forest policies and management practices for climate change adaptation in Burkina Faso and Ghana

Many studies have suggested various kinds of forest policies, management planning and practices to help forests adapt to climate change. These recommendations are often generic, based mostly on case studies from temperate countries and rarely from Africa. We argue that policy and management recommendations aimed at integrating adaptation into national forest policies and practices in Africa should start with an inventory and careful examination of existing policies and practices in order to understand the nature and extent of intervention required to influence the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change. This paper aims to contribute to closing this gap in knowledge detrimental to decision making through the review and analysis of current forest policies and practices in Burkina Faso and Ghana and highlighting elements that have the potential to influence the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change. The analysis revealed that adaptation (and mitigation) are not part of current forest policies in Burkina Faso and Ghana, but instead policies contain elements of risk management practices which are also relevant to the adaptation of forest ecosystems. Some of these elements are found in policies on the management of forest fires, forest genetic resources, non-timber resources, tree regeneration and silvicultural practices. To facilitate and enhance the management of these elements, a number of recommendations are suggested. Their implementation will require experienced and well-trained forestry personnel, financial resources, socio-cultural and political dimensions, and the political will of decision makers to act appropriately by formulating necessary policies and mainstreaming adaptation into forest policy and management planning.     

Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particular attention to the management of natural resources and agricultural activities. In most of these countries such as Cameroon, forest can play important role in achieving broader climate change adaptation goals. However, forest generally receives very little attention in national development programme and strategies such as policy dialogues on climate change and poverty reduction strategies. Using a qualitative approach to data collection through content analysis of relevant Cameroon policy documents, the integration of climate change adaptation was explored and the level of attention given to forests for adaptation analysed. Results indicate that, with the exception of the First National Communication to UNFCCC that focused mostly on mitigation and related issues, current policy documents in Cameroon are void of tangible reference to climate change, and hence failing in drawing the relevance of forest in sheltering populations from the many projected impacts of climate change. Policies related to forest rely on a generalized concept of sustainable forest management and do not identify the specific changes that need to be incorporated into management strategies and policies towards achieving adaptation. The strategies and recommendations made in those documents only serve to improve understanding of Cameroon natural resources and add resilience to the natural systems in coping with anthropogenic stresses. The paper draws attention to the need to address the constraints of lack of awareness and poor flow of information on the potentials of forests for climate change adaptation. It highlights the need for integrating forest for adaptation into national development programmes and strategies, and recommends a review of the existing environmental legislations and their implications on poverty reduction strategy and adaptation to climate change.     

过去50年中国森林资源和降水变化的统计分析

论文对过去50年中国森林资源和降水变化进行了统计分析，以期在大尺度上寻找森林资源与降水变化之间的关系。主要结论为：①建国以来我国的森林覆盖率呈上升趋势；②过去50年全国、林区、非林区降水量均呈减少趋势，干旱化趋势明显；③对建国后历次森林资源调查（清查）时段内降水差值（以百分数为单位）、森林覆盖率（以相邻两次变化百分数为单位）变化关系的分析表明，二者的统计关系并不显著，即：过去50年我国森林资源的变化对降水没有显著的影响；④森林影响降水是一个复杂的系统问题，该研究还存在着许多不确定性因素，需进一步实验验证与理论探讨。     

1975—2005年中亚土地利用/覆被变化对森林生态系统碳储量的影响

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对碳循环的影响研究已覆盖全球绝大多数地区,但中亚LUCC对森林生态系统碳库的影响仍属未知。论文以人工林面积、森林产品收获产量及林地转移面积为基础数据,应用Bookkeeping模型,分析了1975—2005年期间三种LUCC方式对中亚森林碳库的影响。近30 a LUCC对其碳库的影响总体表现为碳汇,固碳量为3.07 Tg。植树造林表现出强烈的碳汇功能,总固碳量为12.97 Tg。森林采伐是最主要的碳释放来源,共释放碳5.80 Tg。林地转移呈现较强的碳释放特征,共排放为4.10 Tg。结果表明1975—2005年该区域LUCC对森林碳库具有明显的增汇效应。研究结果将有利于减少LUCC对全球碳收支影响的不确定性。     

云南松林资源动态研究

利用云南省森林资源监测数据对云南松林资源的动态变化进行了研究,结果表明：在1987-2007 年的20 a 间,云南松林资源总体呈增长趋势,尤其是蓄积量在1997-2002 年得益于天然林保护工程,出现了快速上升,5 a 净增20.57%,与此同时,过熟林资源一直处于较低水平,优质可用云南松林资源的数量持续减少,濒临枯竭。云南松林分单位面积蓄积量20 a 间提高了27.05%,而大径组和特大径组林木蓄积所占比例则呈下降趋势,近、成、过熟林的单株材积从每株0.77 m³降至0.22 m³,表明云南松林质量在总体上提高的同时,可用资源数量仍在快速减少,材种结构低质化倾向加剧。云南松林分林龄结构一直呈现出显著的低龄化特征,林龄结构现状迫切要求加强对云南松林的抚育管理,科学开展森林经营。20 a间,云南松林主导利用方向波动较大,难以实现长期经营目标。监测期间,以保护为主导的森林经营政策使云南松林资源得到了休养生息,但仍然存在着粗放经营、经营目标随意调整和对成过熟林资源过度利用等森林经营管理问题,这些因素相互交织,成为云南松林资源数量、林分质量和林龄结构变化的主要原因。     

From union to union: forest governance in a post-soviet political system

This paper explores policy choices made in the governance of forest resources in Lithuania during the period of 1990–2005. The present system of governance of forest resources in Lithuania is compared with a theoretical framework for good governance. In addition, the reforms in the governance model in Lithuania are placed in the context of forest governance in other countries of the region.The results of the study indicate that Lithuanian forestry has evolved from hierarchical and extreme state interventionist governance to relatively transparent and accountable governance that respects private ownership, is sensitive to the public needs and interests as well as demand and supply in the market. The results of our work have indicated that the privatization has served as the main impetus for change.On a larger scale, the reforms of the forest sector in the three Baltic States seem to have progressed in a more similar manner than compared to those in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine.     

Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002)

Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete. This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to 2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced land cover change can be evaluated.     

Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.