国际空港新特点与我国空港资源的综合利用

国际空港是社会经济高度发展和工业化、城市化和现代化的重要特征。研究国外空港现代化特点为发展我国空港可以提供有益的经验与方法，实现我国空港资源最大化的合理利用。特别是在全球经济一体化的新形势下，国际空港具有大型化、规模化的时代特征，同时要适应复杂气候变化的情况，机场全天候、引导系统自动化，各项设施达到国际一流水平。在今后的世界经济与城市化快速发展过程中，我国的空港资源利用应从3个方面去分析，机场的新建扩建应按照科学发展观的思想，按不同等级机场，应有适当的分工，明确空港的综合功能，并与其它交通运输方式相互利用、取长补短，有利于我国航空运输专业化。充分利用空港各类资源，发挥空运的快捷、安全、准确的优势，将我国的航空运输业推向现代化、国际化。     

中国城市化水平省际差异的成因探析

1990～2000年中国城市化水平的省际差异已从原来的北高南低态势转变为目前东高西低的格局。这是由各地区不同的自然环境背景、人口分布与增长、经济发展水平,以及国家区域发展政策等因素的综合影响而形成的。对中国各省区1990年和2000年城市化水平与自然、人口、经济发展、工业化水平等四类12个指标的因子分析表明,区域城市化水平不仅与工业化水平或经济发展水平呈正相关,与人口密度、农业经济呈负相关,而且受工业化水平或经济发展水平的影响更为强烈。并且,随着社会经济发展和工业化推进,工业化因子对城市化的拉动效应在减弱,而综合经济发展对城市化的拉动效应在显著增强。     

关于社会发展综合实验区的理论与实践

我国目前正经历着工业化、城市化的过程,随着经济的高速增长,我国人口、资源、环境及各种社会问题日益严重,制约着我国现代化的进程。为了协调各方面的力量,克服现代化过程中的制约因素,从1986年开始,国家科委、国家计委等有关部委、群众团体开展了一项旨在通过科技引导与推动城镇经济社会环境持续协凋发展的社会实验系统工程——“社会发展综合示范试点”。经过几年实践,1992年,国家科委、国家体改委在试点工作的基础上发出了“关于建立社会发展综合实验区的若干意见”。提出了从国家和地方两个层次开展社会发展综合实验     

中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析

为了取得可靠的能源需求预测,本文引入工业化、城市化等重要因素,利用支持向量回归机在时间序列预测中的优势,确定了输入向量集合和输出向量集合,建立基于支持向量回归机能源需求预测模型.将我国1985-2009年能源需求相关数据进行模拟与仿真,并对中国2010-2020年能源需求量进行预测,并模拟解释变量不同增长率下能源需求的演变并给出政策选择.研究结果表明,中国高速的经济增长以及工业化和城市化的发展对能源需求影响很大,到2020年能源需求将达到45.3亿t标准煤,而且经济增长速度越快对能源需求就越大.变量模拟得出的结论是产业结构也是能源需求重要影响因素之一,工业结构的调整,即便是微调,也会对能源需求有很大的抑制作用;中国城市化进程以及城市化发展阶段所表现出的工业化特征,推动了能源需求快速增长,城市化率越高对能源需求越大,且对能源需求是刚性的,城市化也是能源需求重要影响因素之一.     

转型时期中国城市化水平变动及动力分析

收集各省区近20年有关城市化方面的资料，分析了我国在转型时期城市化水平的时空变化规律。分析结果表明我国转型时期城市化水平在时间变化上具有水平起点低，发展速度快的特点；在空间变化上存在着较大的东中西区际和省际差异。在些基础上，利用多元统计方法，定量研究影响我国城市化发展的主动力因子，结果表明：工农业发展推拉因子、产业结构转换因子和出口替代外向因子是影响我国城市化发展的三大主动力因子。但表现在东中西城市化发展的主作用力是不同的。进一步研究表明：东部省区城市化水平与第三产业发展水平、产业结构转换能力和经济外向化密切相关，其中与第三产业发展水平表现最为显著；中部省区城市化水平与大中型工业企业的分面、工农业发展产相关性强；西部省区城市化水平与工业发展水平最为相关。     

韩国工业化推进过程中的土地利用与经济发展关系分析研究

将土地与经济发展间的相关度及其变化进行比较分析发现。韩国工业化在加速阶段和工业化后期的整个工业化推进过程中，耕地减少与GDP、工业化服务业增加值、固定资产投资及其城市化水平变化是不同的：土地对经济发展影响程度在工业化加速阶段的相对弹性影响度系数很强，而到了工业化后期．影响度则比以前明显减弱；即使到了工业化后期．如果不能继续实施严格的农地保护制度。而过分强调平抑地价．降低土地供给成本．那么农地资源消耗速度仍将持续走高，不会自动进入农地资源消耗的平稳期。虽然不同国家有所差异。但是，我们从中可以得出很多有益的结论和启示。对我国强化土地管理．保证经济持续稳定发展有重大的借鉴意义。     

工业化、城市化对耕地数量变化影响差异分析

工业化、城市化进程对耕地资源数量变化产生了重要影响，但工业化、城市化对耕地资源数量的影响机制存在差异。以1990~2005年江苏省数据为基础，通过建立向量自回归模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，分析了工业化、城市化对耕地数量变动率影响的差异。结果表明，耕地数量变动率、工业化水平和城市化水平均呈非平稳变动趋势，但工业化、城市化对耕地数量变动率的作用方向不同，工业化对耕地数量变动率产生负效应，城市化则产生正效应。同时，城市化对耕地数量变化的影响大于工业化带来的影响，并且城市化的影响比工业化的影响更为持久。这意味着，〖JP2〗江苏省工业化和城市化快速增长时期，城市化是耕地数量变化的首要原因。因此，在当前江苏省工业化与城市化非平衡发展的情况下，合理控制城市化进程，提高城市化质量，对于耕地保护具有积极意义。〖     

资源禀赋对中国人口城市化发展的影响

回顾我国人口城市化的发展历程,经济增长是其基本动力,工业化、市场化、对外开放、固定资产投资、人力资本与科技进步等经济增长要素构成了我国人口城市化的动力源泉。但矿产资源作为重要的经济要素,是"福"是"祸"尚且存在着较大争论。基于人口城市化快速发展和资源型经济转型两大时代背景,本文运用城市面板数据建立个体固定效应模型,研究我国人口城市化的动力机制,重点研究资源禀赋在人口城市化进程中的作用以及由此导致的不同地区人口城市化动力结构之间的差异。研究结果表明,从整体上看,矿产资源对我国的人口城市化起到了积极的促进影响,但资源丰裕度的不同决定了不同地区人口城市化动力结构和动力机制并不完全相同。对于资源丰裕地区而言,资源是内生的动力因素,既作为生产要素参与生产,同时又作为具有稀缺性的商品获得产品收入,由此对本地的产业结构产生根本影响,在经济增长和人口城市化的动力结构中占有了重要的位置;而对于非资源型省份来说,资源是外生的,只是作为外购的生产要素参与生产,资源在这些省份并不构成相对独立的驱动力。在此前提下,资源丰裕地区与资源贫乏地区人口城市化的动力机制出现了明显差异:工业化、市场化、科技力量在资源贫乏省份的作用明显大于在资源丰裕省份中的作用;而资源禀赋和固定资产投资在资源丰裕地区中的作用更大。也就是说,资源禀赋条件的不同从根本上决定了资源丰裕地区与资源贫乏地区人口城市化发展动力的内在差异性,同时也使人口城市化发展模式不尽相同。     

基于共享社会经济路径的“一带一路”沿线国家城市化水平与经济预测研究

城市和经济发展对气候变化的贡献不容忽视。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出的共享社会经济路径(SSPs),描述了气候变化与社会经济要素之间的相互关系,以及不同的社会经济发展道路所面临的气候变化适应与减缓挑战。本文设计5种共享社会经济路径下城市化和经济发展情景,包括可持续路径(SSP1)、中间路径(SSP2)、区域竞争路径(SSP3)、不均衡路径(SSP4)和化石燃料为主的发展路径(SSP5),开展2020—2100年"一带一路"沿线国家城市化和经济预测。研究表明:(1)"一带一路"沿线国家城市化水平和经济总量将呈增加趋势,城市人口比重由2016年的48%增长至2100年的77. 9%(55%～92%),GDP总量由57万亿美元增长至371万亿(210万亿～611万亿)美元。(2)未来城市化及经济水平在5种发展路径下将呈现不同的发展趋势,SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下"一带一路"沿线城市发展迅速,未来几乎所有国家都能达到极高城市化水平,SSP2和SSP3路径发展相对缓慢,绝大部分国家能够达到中度城市化水平以上。经济水平在SSP5路径下发展较快,大部分国家能达到当前水平的5倍以上,SSP3和SSP4路径下发展缓慢,多数国家增幅1～4倍。(3)在低、中度城市化水平国家,发展道路的选择对未来城市化和经济影响显著,到21世纪末期各路径间城市化差距达40%以上,经济水平相差3倍左右;具有较高城市化水平的国家,未来城市和经济发展均较为稳定,各路径间城市化差异少于20%,经济发展相差约1. 5倍。     

我国大城市空间增长基本动力的实证研究——经济发展、人口增长与道路交通

20世纪90年代以来的快速城市化和工业化,使我国大城市地区普遍实现了建成区空间的大规模扩张过程.以2004年我国大城市的相关统计数据为基础,运用计量经济学的方法.分析我国大城市空间增长动力的现状特征.研究认为,我国大城市在普遍呈现出建成区空间快速增长的现象背后,隐藏着多元化的内在动力机制;城市经济发展水平、城市人口数量和城市道路交通建设等各种因素共同驱动了我国大城市空间扩张的现实进程;在此过程中.城市人口数量增长具有主导性的作用,道路交通条件改善也发挥着不可忽略的影响,而经济发展水平的作用影响较为复杂、尚有待于更进一步的研究探讨.研究建议,致力于空间紧凑型城市建设、适当提高城市人口密度、加强城市交通需求管理来促进城市空闷的健康持续发展,应该成为未来的发展方向.     

西藏"一江两河"地区人口空间分布的动态演变

人口分布的空间演变是人口发展过程中在时间和空间上的表现形式,人口的集聚与扩散是诠释区域人口空间分布格局与形态的重要方面.对其研究有助于揭示人口分布现状的本质、理解区域空间结构特征及演变趋势.本研究运用局部空间自相关方法,并结合GIS技术,以县域为基本单元,人口密度为衡量指标,对西藏"一江两河"地区1990-2008年间人口分布空间格局的演变进行了分析.分析结果表明,"一江两河"地区各县市(区)人口总量和密度均有明显增长,人口分布总体上呈现出不断集中的态势.局部自相关分析揭示"一江两河"地区开始显现以拉萨市和日喀则市为中心的两个显著的人口高密度区,显示出该区域人口分布的多中心空间结构特征.对以拉萨市、日喀则市和乃东县为中心的区域密度函数进行拟合.多中心区域密度函数的估计结果显示,"一江两河"地区空间发展正逐步由20世纪90年代单中心(拉萨市城关区)阶段,向目前的多中心向心集聚阶段转变,除拉萨市城关区外,日喀则市和乃东县集聚能力开始显现.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.