Life cycle assessment of second generation (2G) and third generation (3G) mobile phone networks

The environmental performance of presently operated GSM and UMTS networks was analysed concentrating on the environmental effects of the End-of-Life (EOL) phase using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. The study was performed based on comprehensive life cycle inventory and life cycle modelling. The environmental effects were quantified using the IMPACT2002+ method. Based on technological forecasts, the environmental effects of forthcoming mobile telephone networks were approximated. The results indicate that a parallel operation of GSM and UMTS networks is environmentally detrimental and the transition phase should be kept as short as possible. The use phase (i.e. the operation) of the radio network components account for a large fraction of the total environmental impact. In particular, there is a need to lower the energy consumption of those network components. Seen in relation to each other, UMTS networks provide an environmentally more efficient mobile communication technology than GSM networks. In assessing the EOL phase, recycling the electronic scrap of mobile phone networks was shown to have clear environmental benefits. Under the present conditions, material recycling could help lower the environmental impact of the production phase by up to 50%.     

Environmental assessment of a Palette Modular Device for gold recovery from PVD

The novel “Palette Modular Device” (PMD) technology, addressing the recovery of wastes from Physical Vapour Deposition (PVD) maintenance, is evaluated according to a Life Cycle Assessent (LCA) approach. The PMD recovery technology was recently developed with the aim of an easier and more sustainable separation of the film layers used in PVD, with a particular emphasis on multi-material film productions, frequently adopted in the electronic industry. The PMD is briefly presented in the paper, along with three implementations for industrial purposes. Each implementation adopts a different light solvent for the metal recovery like acetone and formic acid. The usage of light solvents is a peculiar feature enabled by the system considered, as an alternative to traditional approaches. The LCA starts with the objectives and prosecutes with inventories of all material and energy flows for each different scenario considered. Additionally, a global impact assessment is provided in a specific section, in order to enable a quantitative comparison of the potential effects on the environment in every scenario. The results of this study allow the industrial designer to perform an overall environmental evaluation of the three strategies proposed and to compare the performances of the novel technology. The research, furthermore, highlights some critical points in the adoption of the PMD and suggests how to improve the implementation of this recovery process.     

Personal Metabolism (PM) coupled with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model: Danish Case Study

Sustainable and informed resource consumption is the key to make everyday living sustainable for entire populations. An intelligent and strategic way of addressing the challenges related with sustainable development of the everyday living of consumers is to identify consumption-determined hotspots in terms of environmental and health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. Analyzing consumer life styles in terms of consumption patterns in order to identify hotspots is hence the focus of this study. This is achieved by taking into account the entire value chain of the commodities consumed in the context of environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. A systematic commodity consumption, commodity disposal, and life style survey of 1281 persons living in urbanized Danish areas was conducted. The findings of the survey showed new impact dimensions in terms of Personal Metabolism (PM) patterns of residents living in urbanized areas of Denmark. Extending the PM analysis with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) provided a clear picture of the per capita environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions, and the exact origin hereof.A generic PM-LCA Model for all the 1281 persons was set-up in Gabi 6. The assessment results obtained applying the model on all 1281 personal consumption scenarios yielded the 1281 Personal Impact Profiles (PIPs). Consumption of food and energy (electricity and thermal energy) proved to be the primary impact sources of PM, followed by transport. The PIPs further revealed that behavioral factors (e.g. different diets, use of cars, household size) affect the profiles. Hence, behavioral changes are one means out of many that humanity will most likely have to rely on during the sustainable development process. The results of this study will help the Danish and other comparable populations to identify and prioritize the steps towards reducing their environmental, human health, and resource consumption burdens.     

Application of environmentally conscious manufacturing strategies for an automotive component

Application of appropriate environmentally conscious manufacturing strategies enables the sustainable development of products and processes. Automotive component manufacturers recognise the potential of applying appropriate strategies for attaining Triple Bottom Line benefits. In this context, three strategies such as eco-efficiency, waste minimisation and material efficiency are being applied to minimise environmental impacts associated with the manufacture of automotive products and its associated processes. A case study of an automotive component manufacturing firm has been exemplified. After conducting the study, the potential environmental impact was reduced by 20% and eco-efficiency was improved by 13%. Further, improvements have been observed in terms of overall resource consumption and material efficiency. The overall power consumption was reduced by 18% and weight of the component was reduced by 11%. The study aimed at improving the sustainable performance of product by incorporating green and environmentally friendlier manufacturing practices.

Abbreviations: USEPA: United Nations Environmental Protection Agency; OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; WBCSD: World Business Council for Sustainable Development; Eco-QFD: Environmental Quality Function Deployment; WCED: World Commission on Environment and Development; LCA: Life Cycle Assessment     

Land cover changes in the Lachuá region,Guatemala: patterns,proximate causes,and underlying driving forces over the last 50 years

Identifying the patterns of land cover change (LCC) and their main proximate causes and underlying driving forces in tropical rainforests is an urgent task for designing adequate management and conservation policies. The Lachuá region maintains the largest lowland rainforest remnant in Guatemala, but it has been highly deforested and fragmented during the last decades. This is the first paper to describe the patterns of LCC and the associated political and socioeconomic factors in the region over the last 50 years. We estimated spatial and temporal variations in LCC from a random sample of 24 1-km² landscape plots during three time periods (1962–1987, 1987–2006, and 2006–2011) and evaluated how they were related to some important proximate causes and underlying driving forces. During the study period, 55 % of forest cover disappeared, at an annual rate of 1.6 %. The deforestation rate increased from 0.6 % (during the first study period) to 2.8 % (last period), but there was very high spatial variation. Landscape plots located outside conservation areas and close to roads lost between 80 and 100 % of forest cover, whereas the forest cover in landscapes located within protected areas remained intact during the study period. The establishment of new human settlements, roads, and annual crops was the main proximate cause during the first period, but during the second and third periods, open areas were mainly created to establish cattle pastures. Because ~75 % of forest cover has disappeared outside the protected areas, the conservation of this biodiversity hot spot will depend on the expansion of protected areas, and the promotion of forest regrowth and alternative biodiversity-friendly land uses in the landscape matrix.     

Mechanical performance and capillary water absorption of sewage sludge ash concrete (SSAC)

Disposal of sewage sludge from waste water treatment plants is a serious environmental problem of increasing magnitude. Waste water treatment generates as much as 70 g of dry solids per capita per day. Although one of the disposal solutions for this waste is through incineration, still almost 30% of sludge solids remain as ash. This paper presents results related to reuse of sewage sludge ash in concrete. The sludge was characterised for chemical composition (X-ray flourescence analysis), crystalline phases (X-ray diffraction analysis) and pozzolanic activity. The effects of incineration on crystal phases of the dry sludge were investigated. Two water/cement (W/C) ratios (0.55 and 0.45) and three sludge ash percentages (5%, 10% and 20%) per cement mass were used as filler. The mechanical performance of sewage sludge ash concrete (SSAC) at different curing ages (3, 7, 28 and 90 days) was assessed by means of mechanical tests and capillary water absorption. Results show that sewage sludge ash leads to a reduction in density and mechanical strength and to an increase in capillary water absorption. Results also show that SSAC with 20% of sewage sludge ash and W/C = 0.45 has a 28 day compressive strength of almost 30 MPa. SSAC with a sludge ash contents of 5% and 10% has the same capillary water absorption coefficient as the control concrete; as for the concrete mixtures with 20% sludge ash content, the capillary water absorption is higher but in line with C20/25 strength class concretes performance.     

Vulnerability of Catalan (NW Mediterranean) ports to wave overtopping due to different scenarios of sea level rise

The overtopping of port breakwaters may affect the assets located at the breakwater lee side. If adaptation measures are not taken, the sea level rise will increase the overtopping discharges putting those assets at significant risk. This study compares, at a regional scale, overtopping discharges over port breakwaters for three storm conditions (return periods of 1, 5 and 50 years) under present climate as well as for three scenarios of sea level rise based on recent projections. The results indicate that, for the worst storm and sea level rise conditions, the overtopping discharge would not be negligible (larger than 1 l/s/m) in 35 ports (84 %), in contrast to only 18 ports (42 %) being affected under present conditions. In addition, in 28 ports (65 %) the overtopping would be at least one order of magnitude larger than for present conditions. In the case of large storms, in 2 ports the overtopping discharge exceeds 200 l/s/m (the discharge that can initiate breakwater damage) under present conditions, while in the worst scenario of sea level rise the number of ports exceeding this value would be 7. On the other hand, the vulnerability of each port for which overtopping flow is greater than an acceptable discharge flux is assessed, and regional maps of vulnerability are plotted. For the worst storm conditions, 23 % of the Catalan ports have risks associated with overtopping under present climate conditions. This percentage would increase to 47 % in the worst sea level rise scenario.     

The environmental impact assessment of wheat and barley production by using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology

This study was conducted to assess the impact of cereals (wheat and barley) production on environment under rainfed and irrigated farming systems in northeast of Iran. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used as a methodology to assess all environmental impacts of cereal grain production through accounting and appraising the resource consumption and emissions. The functional unit considered in this study was one ton grain yield production under different rates of nitrogen application. All associated impacts of different range of N fertilizer application were evaluated on the basis of the functional unit. In this study, three major impact categories considered were climate change, acidification, and eutrophication. In order to prepare final evaluation of all impacts on environment, the EcoX was determined. Results represented that, under low consumption of N fertilizer, the environmental impacts of both rainfed farming systems of wheat and barley was less than irrigated farming systems. Considering grain yield as response factor to different fertilizer application level, irrigated farming systems of wheat and barley with the range of 160–180 and?>220 (Kg?N?ha^?1) showed the maximum impact on environment. It seems LCA is an appropriate method to quantify the impact of utilized agricultural inputs and different managements on environment.     

Life cycle assessments of municipal solid waste management systems: A comparative analysis of selected peer-reviewed literature

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a popular tool used to evaluate the environmental performance of municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems. Although reviews of LCAs of MSW have been undertaken to assess the validity of the ‘waste hierarchy,’ a recent review of the goal, scope and results of LCAs of mixed-material MSW management systems has yet to be performed. This paper is a comparative analysis of 20 process-based LCAs of MSW published between 2002 and 2008 in a total of 11 English-language peer-reviewed journals. It quantifies the methodological transparency of the studies and the frequency of use of particular system boundaries, types of data sources, environmental impact categories, impact weightings, economic valuations, sensitivity analyses, and LCA computer models. Net energy use (NEU), global warming potential (GWP), and acidification potential (AP) values for various types of MSW management systems are also compared using statistical indicators.The reviewed LCAs differ substantially in their system boundaries. Half or more of the LCAs either do not mention or are unclear in whether or not life cycle emissions from energy inputs or capital equipment are included in the calculation of results. Only four impact categories are common to more than half of the reviewed LCAs. The human and ecological toxicity impact categories are much less common than global warming potential, acidification, and eutrophication.A financial life cycle costing is present in eight of the reviewed LCAs, while an economic valuation of the environmental impacts is observed in five. Explicit sensitivity analyses are present in 4/20 of the studies, although many more LCAs evaluate the effects of varying model parameters by increasing the number of waste management scenarios. There is no consensus on whether or not to use the marginal or average source of electricity in calculating environmental impacts. Eight out of the 20 do not mention this source while the remaining LCAs are evenly split between the marginal and average electricity source. One quarter of the reviewed LCAs supply weighted results for the overall environmental performance of MSW management scenarios. All but one of these concurred with the ‘hierarchy of waste’ that the environmental performance of landfilling is lower than that of all the other treatment methods, and that thermal treatments are inferior to recycling.The comparative analyses of the NEU, GWP and AP results are based on 37, 45, and 42 MSW management scenarios, respectively. As measures of statistical dispersion, the interquartile ranges of the NEU, GWP and AP values are lowest for the landfilling (AP, NEU) and thermal treatment (GWP) scenarios. The results of the statistical analysis of the NEU, AP and GWP values appear to indicate that thermal treatment scenarios have a better environmental performance than landfilling, while the results for mixed treatment scenarios are less obvious. A comparison of the relative environmental performances of MSW treatment scenario types within each study did not provide a clear confirmation or repudiation of the waste hierarchy.This paper concludes that many recently published LCAs do not ensure that the methodological assumptions are made clear to the reader. Lack of transparency makes the results difficult to interpret, and hampers meaningful comparisons between the LCA results. A convergence in the adoption of particular assumptions that are more representative of MSW management systems would facilitate the comparison of the results.     

Assessment of vulnerability of the eastern Cretan beaches (Greece) to sea level rise

Beaches are both sensitive and critical components of the coastal systems, as they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change (e.g., the sea level rise) and form valuable coastal ecosystems and economic resources. The objective of the present study has been to record the spatial characteristics and other attributes (e.g., topography, sediments and accessibility) of the 71 beaches of the E. Crete (Eastern Mediterranean) that are either already developed or have a reasonable development potential and assess their erosion risk under sea level rise. Beach retreats are predicted by ensembles of six cross-shore (1D) analytical and numerical morphodynamic models, set up/forced on the basis of collected/collated information and three sea level rise scenarios (0.26, 0.82 and 1.86 m); these retreats are then compared with the recorded maximum (dry) beach widths. Projections by the unified ensemble suggest that, in the case of a 0.26 m rise, 80 % of the examined beaches are to retreat by more than 20 and 16 % by more than 50 % of their maximum dry width. In the case of a 0.82 m rise, 72 % of the tested beaches are predicted to retreat by more than 50 % of their dry width and 21 % by a distance at least equal to their observed maximum dry widths. A sea level rise of 1.86 m represents a ‘doom’ scenario, as 75 % of the beaches are predicted to retreat by more than their maximum width. These results may be conservative, as other significant beach erosion factors (e.g., decreasing beach sediment supply) have not been considered.     

Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

城市生活垃圾焚烧社会成本评估方法与应用——以北京市为例

中国缺乏生活垃圾管理成本核算,各类隐性补贴使生活垃圾焚烧社会成本被低估。本文将这一成本界定为社会因生活垃圾焚烧而承担的,以市场价核算的成本。基于生命周期评价(LCA)框架建立了城市生活垃圾焚烧社会成本核算方法,将该成本分为补贴项目与外部成本。前者包括固定成本、可变成本、税收减免,采用直接成本法、机会成本法、比较法计算;后者采用美国加州环保局热点分析计划建立的暴露途径分析方法,利用空气扩散模型(AERMOD)、空气扩散与风险评估工具(ADMRT)、"工资—风险"法计算二口恶英致癌健康损失。基于北京市运营的3座生活垃圾焚烧处理厂运营数据、排放参数、地形与气象参数对成本进行评估,结果表明:2015年北京市生活垃圾焚烧社会成本20.4亿元,相当于1 088.5元/t;其中,补贴项目占比30%,相当于324.5元/t,健康损失占比70%,相当于752.8元/t;垃圾处理费和电价补贴分别占补贴项目的 50.2%、20%,是焚烧厂的主要收入;生活垃圾管理"收集—转运—焚烧"全过程社会成本为42.2亿元,相当于2 253元/t,远高于40—300元/t的处理费标准。生活垃圾焚烧代价巨大但被隐蔽,又缺乏专门的危险空气污染物排放标准与健康风险评估,垃圾焚烧社会成本存在失控风险。建议:建立生活垃圾管理社会成本核算准则,实现成本显性化;明确生活垃圾管理社会成本降低目标,以强制源头分类、计量收费政策降低垃圾清运量、焚烧量;建立危险空气污染物定量风险评估制度,实施二口恶英减排。     

Demand of the tourists visiting protected areas in small oceanic islands: the Azores case-study (Portugal)

In general, tourism plays a significant role in the economy of archipelagos and islands. The Autonomous Region of the Azores has a great potential for tourism, offering multiple attractions, both natural and cultural, creating a big challenge for a sustainable tourism policy since little attention has been paid to the archipelagos and their special needs. This work aims to understand the profile and type of ecotourist that visits the Azores. This knowledge is of great importance for a better management and development of nature-based tourism, and products tailored to the needs and expectations of visitors. The data were collected by means of exit surveys conducted at the Airport of São Miguel Island, the larger and most populated island of the archipelago, during the high tourist season—July–September 2009. The analysis of the visitor’s profile and preferences is crucial to draw adequate strategies of management for tourism, while it helps to adequate the offer to the demand. Results showed that 41.1 % of the tourists claimed to be attracted to the islands due to their “natural values” (e.g., landscape, biodiversity, and geodiversity). The most practiced activities were whale-watching (32.4 %) and mountaineering/hiking (31.6 %), followed by diving (7 %) and other sports (5.1 %). The tourists’ profile points to a mainstream, soft, and incidental type of ecotourist. This information helps to develop and support a strategic planning and management, both at local and regional levels, for sustainable tourism policies.     

Dividivi tannins: an ecological product for water-based drilling fluids

Modified tannins are used as deflocculant additives in the formulation of water-based drilling fluids (WBDF) for drilling operations in any scenario. Due to their high heavy metals content, these additives are toxic and hazardous for any environmental scenario. Deflocculant efficiency of unmodified tannins (UDT) extracted from fruit pods of “dividivi” (Caesalpinia coriaria) as an additive for WBDF was assessed. Raw materials for UDT elaboration come from the rural and sustainable exploitation of natural occurring dividivi trees, growing in dry tropical forests in Anzoátegui state (Orinoco Oil Belt, eastern Venezuela). The tannins extract, in the form of dividivi fruit powder, contains 47.0 % of total tannins (hydrolyzable tannins plus condensed tannins), of which 67.4 % corresponds to hydrolyzable tannins. Dividivi tannins in WBDF showed nine (9) times deflocculant efficiency than heavy metals commercial modified tannins. Moreover, commercial modified tannins do not improve their deflocculant efficiency with increased tannin content. Ecotoxicological studies were carried out for WBDF formulations with UDT, using freshwater microalgae Scenedesmus dimorphus as chronic toxicity bioindicator. Toxicity bioassays performed with these microalgae did not show significant effects on its population growth. The EC₅₀ values resulted in over 100,000 mg L^?1, and these formulations were therefore considered non-toxic. Values of LC₅₀ obtained this time with Poecilia reticulata, as acute toxicity bioindicator are around 100,000 mg L^?1, with no significant effects on population mortality. Thus, WBDF formulated with UDT can be considered non-toxic formulations for populations of this freshwater fish. From the social perspective, the use of UDT in WBDF fosters organized communities economical activities based on the maintenance of a sustainable supply chain for processing fruits in a quantity enough to obtain three thousand seven hundred fifty kilograms (3750 Kg). The UDT so obtained was used as deflocculant in four (4) oil wells producing excellent performance and relevant savings compared with commercial modified tannin.     

Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030

In the recent past, the Alpine Lech valley (Austria) experienced three damaging flood events within 6 years despite the various structural flood protection measures in place. For an improved flood risk management, the analysis of flood damage potentials is a crucial component. Since the expansion of built-up areas and their associated values is seen as one of the main drivers of rising flood losses, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the assets at risk, particularly of residential areas, due to land use changes over a historic period (since 1971) and up to possible shifts in future (until 2030). The analysis revealed that the alpine study area was faced to remarkable land use changes like urbanization and the decline of agriculturally used grassland areas. Although the major agglomeration of residential areas inside the flood plains took place before 1971, a steady growth of values at risk can still be observed until now. Even for the future, the trend is ongoing, but depends very much on the assumed land use scenario and the underlying land use policy. Between 1971 and 2006, the annual growth rate of the damage potential of residential areas amounted to 1.1 % (‘constant values,’ i.e., asset values at constant prices of reference year 2006) or 3.0 % (‘adjusted values,’ i.e., asset values adjusted by GDP increase at constant prices of reference year 2006) for three flood scenarios. For the projected time span between 2006 and 2030, a further annual increase by 1.0 % (‘constant values’) or even 4.2 % (‘adjusted values’) may be possible when the most extreme urbanization scenario ‘Overall Growth’ is considered. Although socio-economic development is regarded as the main driver for increasing flood losses, our analysis shows that settlement development does not preferably take place within flood prone areas.     

Reference conditions for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment: reconstructing nutrient regimes using the model MONERIS

We introduce an approach for establishing reference conditions (RC) for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment, based on predictive modelling. An extensive data set of statistics from the year 1880 was coupled with literature data, providing a comprehensive basis for the calculation of regional historical nutrient emissions into rivers, river nutrient concentrations, and nutrient loading into the sea. Four different scenarios were calculated: scenario 1 assumed RC following previously established criteria for lakes (Poikane et al. in Environ Manag 45(6):1286–1298, 2010), scenario 4 applied the nutrient emission conditions of 1880 (considering non-intensive land usage, the presence of tile drainage systems, sewer systems, and the human population from 1880), and scenarios 2 and 3 considered intermediate conditions. Our results showed that nutrient emissions from scenario 1 accounted for approximately one-tenth of the currently observed total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) emissions. The nutrient emissions calculated for 1880 (scenario 4) were found to be 47 % (TN) and 55 % (TP) higher than those calculated considering reference lake conditions (scenario 1). Our results suggest that RC nutrient concentrations in rivers in the German Baltic Sea catchment were clearly below 0.05 mg/l for TP and 1 mg/l for TN. This range is in accordance with historical and calculated pristine nutrient concentrations from other rivers in similar catchments.     

Long-term simulation of effects of energy crop cultivation on nitrogen leaching and surface water quality in Saxony/Germany

The production of energy crops in Germany is a growing agronomic sector and is expected to occupy a substantial share of farmland in the near future. At the same time, there are concerns that energy crops might cause increased nitrogen pollution of soil water, surface water and groundwater. Therefore, the Federal State of Saxony, Germany, funded a study on potential effects of an intensified cultivation of energy crops. In frame of this study, we used the Web GIS-based model STOFFBILANZ to simulate N leaching from the rooting zone and N loads of surface water for a reference scenario and an energy crop scenario. For the reference scenario, we used data representing the crop cultivation for the year 2005 at municipality level. We found that the total loads for N leaching from the rooting zone of cropland are highest for the loess region (8,067 t year^?1), followed by mountainous region (6,797 t year^?1) and lowland (5,443 t year^?1). However, highest N fluxes in the leachate from rooting zones have been simulated for lowland (40.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1) and mountainous region (37.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1), while nitrate concentrations of leachate were highest for the lowland (101.8 mg l^?1). In terms of diffuse N input into surface water, the mountainous region is the most important source area (total N load 6,380 t year^?1, flux 34.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1). Retention by in-stream processes accounts for 15 % (3,784 t year^?1) of the total N load leaving the study area (25,136 t year^?1). In the 2020 energy crop scenario, shares of rape and silage maize (id., ensiled corn) were limited for each municipality to a maximum of 25 and 33 %, respectively. The conversion of grasslands to crop farming was not allowed. Under these conditions, we found slight to substantial reductions of nitrogen loads for leachate from the rooting zone and for surface waters. The simulated reduction depends strongly on local conditions. Only small reductions (ca. 4–8 %) were found for the lowlands and mountainous regions of Saxony, while reductions for the loess region were substantial (ca. 22 %). A major outcome of our study is that the cultivation of energy crops might reduce N loss if certain preconditions are assumed, for example, without conversion of grasslands to crop farming. However, effects might vary widely depending on local conditions.     

Machine learning for toxicity characterization of organic chemical emissions using USEtox database: Learning the structure of the input space

Toxicity characterization of chemical emissions in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a complex task which usually proceeds via multimedia (fate, exposure and effect) models attached to models of dose–response relationships to assess the effects on target. Different models and approaches do exist, but all require a vast amount of data on the properties of the chemical compounds being assessed, which are hard to collect or hardly publicly available (especially for thousands of less common or newly developed chemicals), therefore hampering in practice the assessment in LCA. An example is USEtox, a consensual model for the characterization of human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity. This paper places itself in a line of research aiming at providing a methodology to reduce the number of input parameters necessary to run multimedia fate models, focusing in particular to the application of the USEtox toxicity model. By focusing on USEtox, in this paper two main goals are pursued: 1) performing an extensive exploratory analysis (using dimensionality reduction techniques) of the input space constituted by the substance-specific properties at the aim of detecting particular patterns in the data manifold and estimating the dimension of the subspace in which the data manifold actually lies; and 2) exploring the application of a set of linear models, based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, as well as a nonlinear model (general regression neural network — GRNN) in the seek for an automatic selection strategy of the most informative variables according to the modelled output (USEtox factor). After extensive analysis, the intrinsic dimension of the input manifold has been identified between three and four. The variables selected as most informative may vary according to the output modelled and the model used, but for the toxicity factors modelled in this paper the input variables selected as most informative are coherent with prior expectations based on scientific knowledge of toxicity factors modelling. Thus the outcomes of the analysis are promising for the future application of the approach to other portions of the model, affected by important data gaps, e.g., to the calculation of human health effect factors.     

Potential for the desalination of a brackish groundwater aquifer under a background of rising sea level via salt intrusion prevention river gates in the coastal area of the Red River Delta,Vietnam

Additional freshwater sources are required in many parts of the world, including the coastal areas of the Red River Delta (RRD), where the groundwater (GW) is generally brackish. Determining a feasible method for desalinating brackish aquifers would help provide additional freshwater sources. However, substantial desalination of brackish aquifers cannot be achieved under the natural conditions of GW flow and precipitation recharge. Although rainfall recharge to the shallow Holocene aquifer has occurred for hundreds of years, the aquifer still remains brackish since the natural hydraulic conditions do not allow a complete mixing between the fresh recharged water and aquifer salinized water or the discharging of the aquifer salinized water. The planned salt intrusion prevention gates in the Red River, Tra Ly River and Hoa River in the RRD coastal area, combined with increased GW abstraction and associated aquifer recharge with fresh river water, could result in the gradual desalination of the shallow Holocene aquifer. These effects would help improve the area’s resilience to freshwater shortages and sea level rises and would allow for the creation of a long-term sustainable water resource development plan to manage the salinization of water resources caused by sea level rises. Finite element (FE) modeling of GW flow, solute transport via GW flow and dynamic programming (DP) have been used to study the potential desalination of brackish aquifers, the magnitude of GW abstraction quantities and the spatial and temporal aspects of desalination. FE modeling of GW flow coupled with DP was utilized to identify the magnitude of sustainable abstraction quantities and the GW flow field, which is required in salt transport models. Multiple sizes of elements and time steps were used to adapt to the unsteady state of GW flow and hydraulic head variables between the elements in the FE meshes in order to ensure reasonable accuracy of numerical modeling. The GW flow and salt transport modeling and DP allowed determining quasi-steady-state GW abstraction rates and aquifer salinity levels for conditions that did and did not include the shallow Holocene unconfined aquifer recharge from rainfall. The aquifer modeled domain which is supposed to serve the pumping well field is 1.5 km². The results showed that the Holocene aquifer may provide a stable abstraction rate of 100 m³/day starting in the 6th year (for the worst-case scenario with zero aquifer recharge from rainfall) to 130 m³/day starting in the 3rd year (for the scenario with aquifer recharge equal to 3% of the rainfall levels). During the first years of GW abstraction, the desalination of the brackish upper Holocene aquifer will mainly occur in the area close to the river, and at the 18th year of abstraction, almost the entire area between the river and line of pumping wells would be desalinized. From the 10th year of abstraction, the abstracted water has a total dissolved solids content lower than 0.5 g/l for the worst-case scenario with zero aquifer recharge from rainfall and lower than 0.42 g/l for the scenario with aquifer recharge equal to 3% of the rainfall. The modeling results indicate the simulated process by which abstraction of groundwater adjacent to the Tra Ly River could desalinize the brackish aquifer via freshwater recharge from the river.     

The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation

Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is one of the critical issues that may affect climate response strategies. Whereas the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) was specified as 2–4.5 °C with the best estimate of 3 °C in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, it was revised to 1.5–4.5 °C in the 5th Assessment Report. The authors examined the impact of a difference in ECS assuming a best estimate of 2.5 °C, instead of 3 °C. The current pledges of several countries including the U.S., EU and China on emission reductions beyond 2020 are not on track for the 2 °C target with an ECS of 3 °C but are compatible with the target with an ECS of 2.5 °C. It is critically important for policymakers in Paris to know that they are in a position to make decisions under large uncertainty of ECS.