A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: a study for the Lake Erhai Basin

In recent years, water-quality deterioration associated with rapid socio-economic development in the Lake Erhai Basin, China, has acquired more and more attention from the public and the government. An effective planning for the basin's environmental management system is desired for sustainable regional development. In this study, an environmental system dynamics model, named ErhaiSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. The ErhaiSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behaviour simulation at an integrated level. This capability is very useful in analyzing and recommending policy decisions. For the study case, interactions among a umber of system components within a time frame of 15 years are examined dynamically. Four planning alternatives are considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous planning studies. The contributions of various nonpoint pollution sources to the lake's eutrophication problems, and the effects of industrial activities and wastewater treatment processes on pollution problems in the Xier River are analyzed through the developed modeling system. The exercise draws attention to the implications of different alternatives to the system's environmental and socio-economic objectives. The modeling results are directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences, and answering questions such as 'What should I do?', 'What if I do?' and 'What are the expected consequences?'.     

A framework for integrated resource planning in the electric power sector

A framework is presented showing the process of integrated resource planning in the electric power sector. This takes into account the traditional utility planning process, and shows how the use of advanced decision analysis tools would facilitate the integration of demand-side management (DSM) and environmental factors. The concept of influence diagram is introduced in the utility planning arena. Using the interdependent data analysis (IDA) technique, a way is shown to provide the probability estimates necessary for the influence diagram. The IDA technique allows the use of expert opinions and intuitive judgements to develop the necessary probability estimates. A sample case study is presented where the issue of environmental impact from stack emissions is incorporated. A base case coal option is compared against a gas turbine combined cycle (GTCC) alternative. Energy costs from these two options are compared by taking into account the capital, licensing, fuel, operation and maintenance, and emissions related costs.     

中国化工产业佩尔兹曼效应实证研究

近年来中国化工产业事故频发,由此引发的安全、健康和环境问题日益突出.为了探讨化工事故产生的深层原因,建立了VECM对中国化工产业的佩尔兹曼效应进行检验.结果表明,短期看中国化工安全设施加强并没有显著提高化工安全水平的原因在于存在佩尔兹曼效应;长期看工人逆向选择的抵消效应趋于消失;化工工人安全意识薄弱是导致短期内安全设施投资加大、事故率不降反升的主要原因之一.该结论为完善化工安全规制政策提供了理论支撑.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1

The Great Lakes Basin Commission has initiated a Framework Study to assess the present and projected water- and related land-resource problems and demands in the Great Lakes Basin. Poorly defined objectives; incomplete and inconsistent data arrays; unknown air, biota, water, and sediment interactions; and multiple planning considerations for interconnected, large lake systems hinder objective planning. To incorporate mathematical modeling as a planning tool for the Great Lakes, a two-phase program, comprising a feasibility and design study followed by contracted and in-house modeling, data assembly, and plan development, has been initiated. The models will be used to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base, and inadequately understood ecosystem interactions. For the first time objective testing of resource-utilization plans to identify potential conflicts will provide a rational and cost-effective approach to Great Lakes management. Because disciplines will be interrelated, the long-term effects of planning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states can be evaluated. Testing of the consequences of environmental accidents and increased pollution levels can be evaluated, and risks to the resource determined. Examples are cited to demonstrate the use of such planning tools.     

化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制的研究

我国的化工园区为促进经济和社会发展做出了重要贡献。由于化工园区内危险化学品种类多、有毒有害物质数量大、环境风险等级高,存在着发生重特大事故的现实性和可能性。但是,我国至今尚未制定化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制技术规范,相关研究也未见报道。在当前化工园区安全生产事件高发并严重影响周边环境的情况下,研究化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制方法,提高应对安全生产事故以及次生突发环境事件的能力尤为重要。通过分析化工园区环境风险物质、环境风险工艺和环境风险受体三个方面的环境风险的特性,初步拟定了化工园区突发环境事件应急预案编制调查评估、建章立制、预案编写三个阶段的技术路线,明确了开展环境风险评估、加强应急能力建设、完善环境风险防范措施和环境应急处置措施的四项编制要点,在此基础上提出了化工园区突发环境事件应急预案由综合预案、现场处置预案、专项预案、环境风险评估报告、环境应急资源调查报告六部分组成的结构框架。     

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.     

Environmental aftermath of the radiation accident at Tomsk-7

An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident's ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed.     

工业园区氯碱项目环境风险预测评价——以新疆某城市工业园区氯碱项目为例

对工业园区引入的化工项目进行环境风险评价,是园区规划的重点工作之一。对氯碱生产项目潜在的环境风险环节进行识别和风险类型的确定,对发生泄漏性事故进行环境风险评价,预测了事故发生对环境的影响程度及范围。对事故发生后的风险提出防范和应急减缓措施,并对项目提出规划建议。     

建立以人群健康为核心的国家污染防控体系——以“血铅事件”为例

环境健康事件的频发反映了我国污染防控体系的不足。以"血铅事件"为例,综述了我国铅污染管理状况,分析了我国铅环境健康防治现状,并提出了由生产排放达标为核心的国家污染防控体系向以人群健康为核心的国家污染防控体系转变的环境战略与政策管理措施。     

The practice of valuing the environment in cost-benefit analyses in transport and spatial projects

Scientific debates on environmental impacts in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) focus on methodological questions. The literature, however, contains very little information on the influence of these debates on CBAs made in spatial planning practice. In this paper, this gap is filled by a qualitative analysis of 67 CBAs made in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2011. From the literature on environmental valuation, we derive criteria to evaluate the quality of CBA practice, such as completeness and the inclusion of uncertainties. The analysis shows that in many cases relevant environmental effects are omitted or not monetised. Moreover, non-monetised effects are often not included in CBA conclusions. If impacts are monetised, the methods used are frequently not very sophisticated. The consequences of assumptions are often not communicated, for example, where high discount rates make long-term effects seem unimportant. In this research we identify four main points for good practice.     

基于事件树的危险化学品污染事故应急技术库构建

近年来我国危险化学品环境污染事故频发,如何及时有效地对污染物进行应急控制及消除显得尤为重要。本文基于事件树分析法原理,根据危险化学品理化性质及其环境污染事故的特征,从污染物种类、污染介质和污染物性质三个方面归纳出危险化学品环境污染事故的42种事故情形,给出每种污染事故情形所对应的处理处置技术方案,构建危险化学品环境污染事故应急处理处置技术树。基于Web服务器Apache、PHP语言和MySQL数据库管理系统开发,建立了危险化学品环境污染事故应急处理处置技术库,实现对技术方案方便快速地查询。     

海上溢油应急处置技术探讨

海上溢油事故不仅给企业造成巨大经济损失,如果处置不当还将引发严重的环境污染事故。文章基于对大连"7.16"及BP"4.20"溢油污染事故处理方法分析,探讨了国内外海上溢油应急技术的发展概况,并结合中国石油企业海上溢油应急建设实际情况,探究了中国石油企业海上溢油应急处置的关键技术问题。为中国石油企业海上溢油应急管理建设和应急技术发展提供参考。     

中国突发环境事件时间序列分析

突发性环境事件时间序列特征可表征环境风险管理成效及存在问题。研究表明2000年以来中国突发环境事件预防、控制与管理取得了显著成效,其中,突发性水污染事件、大气污染事件以及噪声振动危害年发生频次呈大幅度降低趋势,但固废污染事件自2003年以来的年发生频次变化不大,而其它突发性环境事件自2002年以来的年发生频次则呈快速增长态势,说明中国在强调突发性水环境和大气环境事件监管的同时,还需加强固废污染事件及其它类型突发环境事件的监控与管理。     

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: planning for closure from the outset of mining

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use.
The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management.     

The environmental attitudes inventory: A valid and reliable measure to assess the structure of environmental attitudes

Environmental attitudes (EA), a crucial construct in environmental psychology, are a psychological tendency expressed by evaluating the natural environment with some degree of favour or disfavour. There are hundreds of EA measures available based on different conceptual and theoretical frameworks, and most researchers prefer to generate new measures rather than organize those already available. The present research provides a cumulative and theoretical approach to the measurement of EA, in which the multidimensional and hierarchical nature of EA is considered. Reported are findings from three studies on the development of a psychometrically sound, multidimensional inventory to assess EA cross-culturally, the Environmental Attitudes Inventory (EAI). The EAI has twelve specific scales that capture the main facets measured by previous research. The twelve factors were established through confirmatory factor analyses, and the EAI scales are shown to be unidimensional scales with high internal consistency, homogeneity and high test-retest reliability, and also to be largely free from social desirability.     

浅谈化学污染事故环境风险管理

通过了解国内外化学污染事故的现状,分析了化学污染事故的严重性及其特征,结合我国现有的环境风险管理状况,探讨了化学污染事故环境风险管理的途径。     

浅谈石油企业如何做好环保规划

根据环境保护面临的形势和发展趋势,对企业环保现状和存在的主要问题进行了分析和评价,论述了企业做好环境保护规划的必要性。提出了石油企业制订环保发展战略规划的步骤和做好环保规划的方法,对编制出切合实际、经济可行的环境保护规划有借鉴意义。     

美国环境应急管理制度简析

美国作为工业发达国家,经过百余年的发展,建立了世界领先的环境应急管理制度。自2005年松花江水污染事件爆发至今,我国的环境应急管理需求迫切,管理水平也在飞速提升。对美国的环境应急管理制度的分析能为我国环境应急管理工作提供借鉴。首先,美国设立了以宪法为根基,以应急管理法律法规为主要枝干,以针对突发性环境事件的专门性立法为具体内容的管理体系。其次,美国建立了包括总统、联邦应急管理署、美国国家环境保护局,以及州、县和地方政府中的管理机构在内的多层级应急管理系统。再次,美国基于国家应急系统(NRS)及其核心国家应急计划(NCP),为环境应急响应工作制定了清晰的工作流程。此外,美国还设立了超级基金,有助于有效解决应对环境突发事件的资金来源问题。2014年1月,美国西弗吉尼亚州发生埃尔克河化学品泄漏污染水源事件,通过将该污染事故作为案例进行分析,本文详细梳理了美国各层级政府对该污染事故的应急响应处理流程,体现出其具有的流程规范、分工清晰、属地处理、联邦支持等特点。