内蒙古自治区地质灾害与地质环境的关系分析

地质灾害的形成受地质环境条件中多种要素的综合控制,二者之间密切相关.这些要素包括地形地貌、气象特征、植被生态、地层岩性、地质构造、岩土体类型、人类工程活动.根据内蒙古自治区内地质灾害调查工作的研究程度及区内地质灾害的自身特点,以区内已发生灾害的大量统计数据为基础,定性分析了在何种地质环境条件下,才可能发育崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷灾害;定量分析了地形坡度、地形高差、沟谷流域特征、降雨量在某一具体分布范围内,才容易发育某种地质灾害;同时论述了人类工程活动对地质灾害的诱发作用.     

城市规划与地质灾害

地质条件是城市发展的物质基础。随着经济社会的发展．由地质构造条件、人类工程活动等综合因素引起的生态地质环境恶化已日益显露出来．引发的各类地质灾害也日渐突出,城市地质生态环境问题已成为制约现代城市可持续发展的影响因素之一。地质生态环境则是城市生存与发展的重要依托,体现出其基础性、资源性的特点。     

Vulnerable groups*

As a rule, refugees arrive in their host country with a bare minimum of possessions; in this respect every refugee can be classified as vulnerable. However, a certain category is especially at risk, namely those persons who would be considered vulnerable in a "normal society." These people are doubly in need of assistance, firstly, inasmuch as they are refugees and secondly, insofar as they are vulnerable. If these refugees can be helped to overcome (or at least reduce) their handicaps, they can begin to become self-reliant and form an active, productive parts of their community, rather than remaining an extra burden to an already vulnerable part of the society in their country of asylum. Whilst their able-bodied companions work in the fields or the towns, part of this category can be trained and usefully employed in sectors of work that do not require great mobility or physical fitness (such as handicrafts, trade, teaching and services)..     

科学认识地质公园

时下,人们在空闲及节假日都会到风景名胜区游玩,特别是到地质公园观赏大自然的奇峰怪石已成为一种时尚。然而,导游的解说,仅引导人们从文化艺术及神话中领悟大自然的鬼斧神工,却丢失了地质公园内地质遗迹的科学含义,这不能不说是一种遗憾。     

重庆市地质灾害风险评估信息系统

重庆市地质灾害类型多,分布广,危害大,传统的预测预报及评估方法已显落后,迫切需要构建一套能快速、准确评价该区地质灾害危险性、易损性的具有模块化、网络化的风险评价系统.在Windows环境下,以GIS系列工具软件为基础平台,采用数据库管理技术对数据进行采集、存储、管理、分析、计算和图形显示,利用计算机语言的编程功能,开发了重庆市地质灾害评估信息系统,使有关决策部门能够方便地对系统进行查询和分析,获取所需要的地质灾害评估结果,为有关部门的灾害预测预报和提出有效、科学的防灾、减灾和救灾措施提供依据.     

警惕日趋加剧的地质灾害

我国是个多山的国家,山地、丘陵和高原占全国总面积的1／3,一般都存在着不同程度的地质灾害。2002年全国共发生滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、地面沉陷等突发性的地质灾害4．8万余起(重大地质灾害333起),其中滑坡数量最多约占84．3％,其次是崩塌和泥石流,分别占6．6％和6．0％。造成962人死亡,1797人受伤,直接经济损失近51亿元。     

典型地质灾害链式机理研究

滑坡、泥石流与危岩是典型的地质灾害,每年由其造成的损失占到所有地质灾害的一半以上,针对典型地质灾害的链式规律进行深入研究,对于防灾减灾具有重大意义。从典型地质灾害的形成、发展过程入手,将灾害过程视为链式过程,将人为的工程防护治理措施视为断链过程。一个完整的链式过程包括致灾环、激发环、损害环和断链环。致灾环主要是由地质构造而形成的地质因素构成,激发环主要是由暴雨、地震、冰雪融水等非地质因素构成,损害环是由灾害发生后形成的灾害损失构成,断链环则是指工程治理与防护措施。     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

A multi-hazard history of Antigua*

Antigua experiences earthquakes, droughts and hurricanes. To isolate for study each of these as they occur, would be to over simplify the inter-relationships between the aftereffects of one and the occurrence and the effects of the next. Moreover, there will be conditions arising from factors outside the natural disaster spectrum which bear upon, and are themselves affected by, all of these phenomena. This interplay of events and conditions is readily illustrated in the case of island countries, which have a natural and clearly defined containment. Such interrelationships suggest a complex human-ecological system which must be recognized if environmental balance and compatability are to be maintained - particularly in respect of hazards. This documentary analysis of the colonial era in Antigua, has to conclude for the time being with questions concerning the environmental effectiveness of imported systems of administration which, with no knowledge of comparable natural hazards, assumed sectoral separation.     

Food aid and relief-development strategies*

This paper begins by setting out the main arguments on which a proposal for "relief-development strategies" rest. The second part of the paper is concerned with a discussion of the way the objectives of a "relief-development strategy" might be achieved and the roles emergency food aid might have. In the third part of the paper, a number of strategic issues are discussed. A stylized account is presented of how a broad "relief development strategy" might be mounted. The last part of the paper draws together the discussion by considering how emergency projects should be assessed. If the principles on which this paper are based are accepted, then the evaluation of emergency projects should extend well beyond convention.     

A microcomputer-based emergency response system*

A microcomputer-based system was developed to provide local officials responsible for disaster management with assistance during the crucial period immediately following a disaster, a period when incorrect decisions could have an adverse impact on the surrounding community.
While the paper focuses on a potential disaster resulting from an accident at a commercial nuclear power generating facility, the system can be applied to other disastrous situations. Decisions involving evacuation, shelter and the deployment of resources must be made in response to floods, earthquakes, accidents in the transportation of hazardous materials, and hurricanes to name a few examples.
As a decision aid, the system was designed to enhance data display by presenting the data in the form of representations (i.e. road maps, evacuation routes, etc.) as well as in list or tabular form. The potential impact of the event (i.e. the release of radioactive material) was displayed in the form of a cloud, representing the dispersion of the radioactive material. In addition, an algorithm was developed to assist the manager in assigning response resources to demands.
The capability for modelling the impact of a disaster is discussed briefly, with reference to a system installed in the communities surrounding the Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York State.
Results demonstrate both the technical feasibility of incorporating microcomputers indecision support systems for radiological emergency response, and the acceptance of such systems by those public officials responsible for implementing the response plans.     

西藏浪卡子至洛扎公路沿线的地质灾害

西藏浪卡子至洛扎公路是西藏山南地区环线公路的西段，全长120km，集交通、外交、军事于一体。由于公路位于高寒、新构造运动强烈的地区，特殊的地质背景、气候因素和地理环境，为该地区地质灾害的发生孕育了良好的条件。公路沿线的地质灾害主要有泥石流、滑坡、坍岸等，各类地质灾害影响公路总长7248m，其中泥石流42条，滑坡1处，坍岸12处。各类地质灾害对公路的建设和运营构成了极大的危害，针对各类地质灾害发育的特点。结合当地的环境和公路的等级要求，提出了切实有效的治理措施。     

地质灾害防治绩效考核评价体系探讨

地质灾害防治纳入政府绩效考核是当前实践中迫切需要解决的重要课题。提出了地质灾害防治绩效考核的概念,并从目的、指标、主体、方法等4个方面建立了地质灾害防治绩效考核体系。应用所建立的绩效考核体系进行了实证分析,验证了考核体系的客观、实用和可靠性。研究成果为地质灾害防治科学管理提供了基础依据。     

地质灾害危险性评估分级因素的探讨

地质灾害危险性评估工作级别由建设项目重要性和评估区地质环境条件复杂程度这两个因素决定.在分析现行相关标准和研究成果的基础上,指出建设项目重要性可依次由省部级相关技术标准、项目行政审批权限级别、预估灾后损失程度顺序确定,以先符合者为准;指出评估区地质环境条件复杂程度可由地质灾害发育程度、地形与地貌复杂程度、地质构造复杂程度、岩土体工程地质性质、水文地质条件、破坏地质环境的人类工程活动程度等6项判定因素确定,并初步确定了地质灾害发育程度、地形与地貌复杂程度、地质构造复杂程度、岩土体工程地质性质、水文地质条件和破坏地质环境的人类工程活动程度等分级评价标准.     

台湾的地震灾害及其环境地质问题

台湾为地震多发地区，百年来已发生过12次灾难性大地震。地震引发了断层与地裂缝、沉降与塌陷、滑坡与泥石流等环境地质问题，其灾情在西部地区尤显突出。依地质条件与地形地貌，台湾西部地震带可分三个区，本文对三个区的环境寺质特征分别进行了评述。该评述可供工程规划建设时参考。