On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

Changing Drivers of Deforestation and New Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract: Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta‐analysis of case studies of land‐cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small‐scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well‐capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.     

Corruption, political competition and environmental policy

This paper examines the interplay between corruption, political competition, environmental policy and environmental outcomes. An important feature of the model, which has been neglected in the existing literature, is that corruption may occur at different levels of government, such as the payment of bribes to politicians who determine policies, or bureaucrats who administer environmental regulations. We analyse the relationship between political competition and environmental outcomes in a model of stratified corruption and identify the benefits and limits of political competition. Our results suggest that while political competition may yield policy improvements, it cannot eliminate corruption at all levels of government.     

Current Status of Marine Protected Areas in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs), including no‐take marine reserves (MRs), play an important role in the conservation of marine biodiversity. We document the status of MPAs and MRs in Latin America and the Caribbean, where little has been reported on the scope of such protection. Our survey of protected area databases, published and unpublished literature, and Internet searches yielded information from 30 countries and 12 overseas territories. At present more than 700 MPAs have been established, covering more than 300,000 km² or 1.5% of the coastal and shelf waters. We report on the status of 3 categories of protection: MPAs (limited take throughout the area), MRs (no‐take throughout the area), and mixed‐use (a limited‐take MPA that contains an MR). The majority of protected areas in Latin America and the Caribbean are MPAs, which allow some or extensive extractive activities throughout the designated area. These 571 sites cover 51,505 km² or 0.3% of coastal and shelf waters. There are 98 MRs covering 16,862 km² or 0.1% of the coastal and shelf waters. Mixed‐use MPAs are the fewest in number (87), but cover the largest area (236,853 km², 1.2%). Across Latin America and the Caribbean, many biogeographic provinces are underrepresented in these protected areas. Large coastal regions remain unprotected, in particular, the southern Pacific and southern Atlantic coasts of South America. Our analysis reveals multiple opportunities to strengthen marine conservation in Latin America and the Caribbean by improving implementation, management, and enforcement of existing MPAs; adding new MPAs and MRs strategically to enhance connectivity and sustainability of existing protection; and establishing new networks of MPAs and MRs or combinations thereof to enhance protection where little currently exists.     

A Successful Predictive Model of Species Richness Based on Indicator Species

Abstract:  Because complete species inventories are expensive and time-consuming, scientists and land managers seek techniques to alleviate logistic constraints on measuring species richness, especially over large spatial scales. We developed a method to identify indicators of species richness that is applicable to any taxonomic group or ecosystem. In an initial case study, we found that a model based on the occurrence of five indicator species explained 88% of the deviance of species richness of 56 butterflies in a mountain range in western North America. We validated model predictions and spatial transferability of the model using independent, newly collected data from another, nearby mountain range. Predicted and observed values of butterfly species richness were highly correlated with 93% of the observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals of the predictions. We used a Bayesian approach to update the initial model with both the model-building and model-validation data sets. In the updated model, the effectiveness of three of the five indicator species was similar, whereas the effectiveness of two species was reduced. The latter species had more erratic distributions in the validation data set than in the original model-building data set. This objective method for identifying indicators of species richness could substantially enhance our ability to conduct large-scale ecological assessments of any group of animals or plants in any geographic region and to make effective conservation decisions.     

Rural well-being: the push and pull and the diversity in-between

This article proposes an analytical framework for developing indicators of agriculture and rural community sustainability, including the symbiotic relationship between sustainable agriculture and rural well-being. Rural well-being offers a sustainable approach to healthy lifestyles that are based on a balance of many complex components including social, economic, and environmental issues. The United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) have taken positions on these issues. The United States Department of Agriculture is ‘committed to helping improve the economy and quality of life in rural America’ through loans and subsidies (USDA 2015). The USDA Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education (SARE) program vision is to sustain ‘an enduring American agriculture of the highest quality that is profitable, protects the nation’s land and water and is a force, providing a healthy and rewarding way of life for farmers and ranchers whose quality products and operations sustain their communities and society’ (SARE 2016; Smart, Sandt and Chris Zdorovtsov 2016). UK government and non-government agencies have taken a more holistic approach to rural well-being in their efforts to achieve a more balanced social–economic–environmental state of rural well-being. The UK interpretation of Community Supported Agriculture is a tested example of this sustainable approach to fostering rural well-being (Saltmarsh et al. 2011).     

A Global Perspective on Large Carnivore Conservation

The recent reintroduction of the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) to Yellowstone signifies a constructive change, but the overall record in the United States on large carnivore conservation remains poor. Many developing countries are determined to do a better job of conserving predators, including their critical habitat and prey populations. We describe current efforts to protect tigers ( Panther tigris ), jaguars ( Panthera onca ), and large-scale forest habitat in Asia, Central America, and Africa. These initiatives take a comprehensive approach that includes biological field research, the identification of local human interests, and a growing recognition of the need for cooperation across political lines. Though often supported by U.S. technical assistance, this international experience could be used better to inform and improve carnivore conservation efforts in North America. Failure to improve our domestic performance or to fully appreciate the contributions of far less developed countries could weaken global efforts to maintain and restore populations of large carnivores.     

Enhancing the productivity and multifunctionality of traditional farming in Latin America

SUMMARY

An assessment is made of various grassroots development initiatives in Latin America which show that agroecological technologies can bring significant environmental and economic benefits to small farmers and rural communities in the region. Examined initiatives offer new ways of enhancing the multifunctional attributes of traditional agriculture through greater per unit area productivity and environmental services obtained in complex, integrated agroecological systems that feature many crop varieties, together with animals and trees. If such experiences were to be scaled up, multiplied, extrapolated, and supported in alternative policy scenarios, the gains in food security and environmental conservation would be substantial. The challenge now is to mobilize science, institutions and the right policies to increase the productivity of smallholder farming systems, while preserving the resource base and at the same time empowering local communities.     

Population Declines and Priorities for Amphibian Conservation in Latin America

Abstract: Although dramatic amphibian population declines have been reported worldwide, our understanding of the extent of the declines in Latin America, where amphibian diversity is high, is limited to a few well-documented studies. To better understand the geographic extent of declines, their possible causes, and the measures needed to improve Latin American scientists' ability to research the phenomenon and make effective management recommendations, we convened three regional workshops with 88 Latin American herpetologists and conservationists. Population declines are widespread in Latin America. At least 13 countries have experienced declines, and in 40 cases species are now thought to be extinct or extirpated in a country where they once occurred. Declines or extinctions have affected 30 genera and nine families of amphibians. Most declines have occurred in remote highlands, above 500 m in elevation in Central America and above 1000 m in the Andes. Most documented declines occurred in the 1980s. Of the possible causes studied to date, climate change appears to be important at one site and chytrid fungal disease has been identified at sites in three countries. Although many monitoring studies are currently underway in a variety of habitats, most studies are recent and of short duration. In a signed resolution, workshop participants called for greater collaboration and communication among scientists working in Latin America to understand the geographic extent of population declines and the distribution of possible causal factors. In situ conservation is important to protect habitats, but captive-rearing programs for species subject to imminent extinction are also needed. Better understanding of the taxonomy and natural history of amphibians and more funding for research and monitoring are critical to developing a scientific basis for management action to arrest and reverse population declines.     

From Population Viability Analysis to Coviability of Farmland Biodiversity and Agriculture

Substantial declines in farmland biodiversity have been reported in Europe for several decades. Agricultural changes have been identified as a main driver of these declines. Although different agrienvironmental schemes have been implemented, their positive effect on biodiversity is relatively unknown. This raises the question as to how to reconcile farming production and biodiversity conservation to operationalize a sustainable and multifunctional agriculture. We devised a bioeconomic model and conducted an analysis based on coviability of farmland biodiversity and agriculture. The coviability approach extended population viability analyses by including bioeconomic risk. Our model coupled stochastic dynamics of both biodiversity and farming land‐uses selected at the microlevel with public policies at the macrolevel on the basis of financial incentives (taxes or subsidies) for land uses. The coviability approach made it possible for us to evaluate bioeconomic risks of these public incentives through the probability of satisfying a mix of biodiversity and economic constraints over time. We calibrated the model and applied it to a community of 34 common birds in metropolitan France at the small agricultural regions scale. We identified different public policies and scenarios with tolerable (0–0%) agroecological risk and modeled their outcomes up to 2050. Budgetary, economic, and ecological (based on Farmland Bird Index) constraints were essential to understanding the set of viable public policies. Our results suggest that some combinations of taxes on cereals and subsidies on grasslands could be relevant to develop a multifunctional agriculture. Moreover, the flexibility and multicriteria viewpoint underlying the coviability approach may help in the implementation of adaptive management. Del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional a la Co‐Viabilidad de la Agricultura y la Biodiversidad de las Tierras de Cultivo     

Campesino hunting and conservation in Latin America

Hunting presents a paradox for biodiversity conservation. It is both a problem and a solution to species declines and poverty. Yet, conservation scientists hold different assumptions about the significance and sustainability of hunting based on the cultures and identities of hunters. In Latin America, conservationists largely sort hunters as either indigenous or campesino. Indigenous hunters are often characterized as culturally driven stewards of wildlife sustainability. Campesino hunters, by contrast, are described as peasants—cultureless, uneducated, and uncaring toward wildlife sustainability. Although such ethnically fueled hunting discourse promotes hunting research, campesino hunters remain underrepresented in most comparative hunting reviews. Moreover, there are no targeted syntheses on the current state of knowledge about campesino hunting, nothing to guide conservation research and practice with and for the largest group of hunters in Latin America. We reviewed 334 articles published from 1937 to 2018 in English (55%) and Spanish (45%)—mostly published in 145 peer-reviewed journals—on the meanings, motivations, and sustainability of campesino hunting in Latin America. Although studies spanned 17 countries, 7 ecosystems, and >75 indigenous and nonindigenous demographics in 30 research contexts, they predominantly focused on nonindigenous campesinos for species-specific conservation and protected area management in tropical broadleaf forests of Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. Authors used 12 methods to collect campesino hunting data, primarily interviews, surveys, and questionnaires, and drew from 10 local and traditional knowledge themes about wildlife trends and uses. Eighteen drivers, 14 constraints, and 10 conflicts—mainly subsistence, income, ethics, regulations, and crop or livestock protection—shaped whether campesino hunters pursued 799 species, 70% of which were least concern species. Yet, only 25 studies (8%) empirically assessed sustainability. Our results show the need for increased interdisciplinary and geographic engagement with campesino hunting across Latin America.     

On reducing the windfall profits in environmental subsidy programs

Investment subsidies are widely used to induce adoption of new technologies that can lower the (marginal) cost of reducing emissions. To economize on these subsidies, governments would like to distinguish between firms that need to receive a subsidy to adopt a new technology, and firms that would adopt that technology even without subsidies. We show that policies consisting of a menu of emission taxes and investment subsidies can potentially induce firms to self-select.     

Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges.

Evaluations of the potential distribution of invasive species can increase the efficiency of their management by focusing prevention measures. Generally, ecological models are built using occurrence data from a species' native range to predict the distribution in areas that the species may invade. However, historical and geographical constraints can limit a species' native distribution. Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), an ecological niche modeling program, was used to predict the potential distribution of the invasive, freshwater New Zealand mudsnail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum, in Australia and North America. We compared the strength of the predictions made by models built with data from the snail's native range in New Zealand to models built with data from the locations invaded by the species. A time-series analysis of the Australian models demonstrated that range-of-invasion data can make better predictions about the potential distribution of invasive species than models built with native range data. Large differences among the model forecasts indicate that uncritical choice of the data set used in training the GARP models can result in misleading predictions. The models predict a large expansion in the range of P. antipodarum in both Australia and North America unless prevention measures are implemented rapidly.     

Integrating pattern-based modelling and political ecology in land-use change research: the case of Mexican dry tropics

ABSTRACT

Agricultural and extractive frontiers experiment rapid landscape transformation. Land-Use Sciences and Political Ecology are complementary approaches for analysing how landscape transformations are related to biophysical conditions, and socioeconomic, cultural and political processes developed at global, national and local scales. This study examines such relationships in a long-standing agrarian and resource frontier in southern Mexico for the 1986–2015 period. We combine insights from: (1) a quantitative land use/land cover change pattern-based model, involving a weights of evidence and cellular automata simulations, and (2) a qualitative content analysis of literature and of local actors’ perspectives. Two grand frontier processes have developed in this region: NAFTA-related agrarian transition toward intensification and the establishment of wind farms. Both were triggered by global forces and new forms of land and resources use, but mediated by national-to-local ecological, socioeconomic and political processes, producing particular landscape transformations.     

Emergent conservation outcomes of shared risk perception in human-wildlife systems

Human perception of risks related to economic damages caused by nearby wildlife can be transmitted through social networks. Understanding how sharing risk information within a human community alters the spatial dynamics of human-wildlife interactions has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We developed an agent-based model that simulates farmer livelihood decisions and activities in an agricultural landscape shared with a population of a generic wildlife species (wildlife-human interactions in shared landscapes [WHISL]). In the model, based on risk perception and economic information, farmers decide how much labor to allocate to farming and whether and where to exclude wildlife from their farms (e.g., through fencing, trenches, or vegetation thinning). In scenarios where the risk perception of farmers was strongly influenced by other farmers, exclusion of wildlife was widespread, resulting in decreased quality of wildlife habitat and frequency of wildlife damages across the landscape. When economic losses from encounters with wildlife were high, perception of risk increased and led to highly synchronous behaviors by farmers in space and time. Interactions between wildlife and farmers sometimes led to a spillover effect of wildlife damage displaced from socially and spatially connected communities to less connected neighboring farms. The WHISL model is a useful conservation-planning tool because it provides a test bed for theories and predictions about human-wildlife dynamics across a range of different agricultural landscapes.     

Detecting and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dependence in Conservation Biology

Abstract: Due to the structuring forces and large-scale physical processes that shape our biosphere, we often find that environmental and ecological data are either spatially or temporally—or both spatially and temporally—dependent. When these data are analyzed, statistical techniques and models are frequently applied that were developed for independent data. We describe some of the detrimental consequences, such as inefficient parameter estimators, biased hypothesis test results, and inaccurate predictions, of ignoring spatial and temporal data dependencies, and we cite an example of adverse statistical results occurring when spatial dependencies were disregarded. We also discuss and recommend available techniques used to detect and model spatial and temporal dependence, including variograms, covariograms, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots, geostatistical techniques, Gaussian autoregressive models, K functions, and ARIMA models, in environmental and ecological research to avoid the aforementioned difficulties.     

Rainfall-human-spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt

To explore the complexity of temporal and spatial dynamics of an agricultural landscape under various external and internal driven scenarios, SimKat, an agent-based model, has been developed with the simulation computer program CORMAS. This model combines simplified bio-physical processes of land cover, regional dry-land salinity changes, rainfall impact on productivity, farm profitability and the complexity of land-use decisions of individual farmers in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no irrigation). In this model, simulated farmers formulate individual decisions dealing with land-use changes based on the combined performance of their past land cover productivity and market returns. The willingness to adapt to market drivers and the ability to maximize returns vary between farmers. In addition, farmers in the model can demonstrate various attitudes towards dry-land salinity mitigation as a consequence of experiencing and perceiving salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or across the entire region. Consequently, farmers can adopt land cover strategies aimed at reducing dry-land salinity. Aggregating the simulated individual behavior of farmers combined with historical rainfall and market price records, reproduced similar aggregated trends of land-cover changes, regional salinity change and farm number decline as observed in the last 20 years in the subject region (Katanning, Western Australia). Using the model in an initial exploratory study on the impact of rainfall variability and change highlighted the importance of average rainfall decline and the widespread willingness of farmers to adapt perennial vegetation in their farming systems to combat regional dry-land salinity. Rainfall decline, as one of the observed consequences of climate change in this region, can also lead to prolonged sequences of dry seasons in the future. Adaptation by farmers to sequences of dry and wet seasons, rather than an average trend in rainfall, seems to be critical for farm survival in this region. Intensifying cropping during wet seasons to maximize farm returns can increase vulnerability in subsequent periods of dry seasons, in particular where alternative income from pasture and sheep production has been lost in the adaptation process.     

耕地保护中的政府责任

认为各级政府是耕地保护的主体，负有建设、管理和保护耕地的责任。十几年来，由于政府耕地保护责任的缺失，全国出现了相关法律法规缺乏协调、政策不连贯、执法力度不够、违法用地现象普遍等问题。今后应进一步落实政府责任制，为耕地保护创造良好的工作机制和条件，管理部门要提高耕地管理水平，公开政务信息，疏通司法审判渠道，切实保障农民的合法权益。     

Learning abatement costs: On the dynamics of the optimal regulation of experience goods

We study the introduction of new technologies when their costs are subject to idiosyncratic uncertainty and can only be fully learned through individual experience. We set up a dynamic model of clean experience goods that replace old polluting consumption options and show how optimal regulation evolves over time. In our base setting where social and private learning incentives coincide, the optimal tax on the polluting consumption is increasing over time. We show, however, that if social and private learning incentives diverge because the private discount rate exceeds the social discount rate, it may be optimal to temporarily increase the tax rate beyond net marginal external damages to induce more learning before reducing the tax rate to the steady state level. Alternatively, one could complement the tax with subsidies for first-time users which can be phased out over time. Similar results apply if consumers have biased expectations. We therefore give a rationale for introductory subsidies on new, clean technologies and non-monotonic tax paths from a perspective of consumer learning.     

Connecting science,policy, and implementation for landscape‐scale habitat connectivity

We examined the links between the science and policy of habitat corridors to better understand how corridors can be implemented effectively. As a case study, we focused on a suite of landscape‐scale connectivity plans in tropical and subtropical Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, and Bhutan). The process of corridor designation may be more efficient if the scientific determination of optimal corridor locations and arrangement is synchronized in time with political buy‐in and establishment of policies to create corridors. Land tenure and the intactness of existing habitat in the region are also important to consider because optimal connectivity strategies may be very different if there are few, versus many, political jurisdictions (including commercial and traditional land tenures) and intact versus degraded habitat between patches. Novel financing mechanisms for corridors include bed taxes, payments for ecosystem services, and strategic forest certifications. Gaps in knowledge of effective corridor design include an understanding of how corridors, particularly those managed by local communities, can be protected from degradation and unsustainable hunting. There is a critical need for quantitative, data‐driven models that can be used to prioritize potential corridors or multicorridor networks based on their relative contributions to long‐term metacommunity persistence.