中国CO《,2》排放的影响因素分解与预测

我国正处于2008年美国金融危机影响下,刺激经济一系列政策的落实观测期,要实现单位国内生产总值CO<,2>排放的目标,任务十分艰巨.本文采用投入产出结构分解技术,对1997-2004年我国应对亚洲金融危机时期的CO<,2>排放量变动进行了7因素的分解测算,结果表明经济增长是CO<,2>排放上升的主要驱动力,能源节约是驱动我国CO<,2>排放下降的主要因素,经济结构变动的影响相对较小.特别,国内最终需求、出口成长以及出口结构变动均推动CO<,2>排放上升,国内最终需求结构变动以及能源替代表现出了对CO<,2>排放的抑制影响等.同时,在我国经济"三步走"目标的前提下,结合能源节约设计了CO<,2>排放的3类情景,给出了未来CO<,2>排放的态势预测,提出了加强需求结构调整、能源效率提高以及可再生能源开发利用的保增长与CO<,2>减排并行不悖的建议.     

Non-ferrous metals (Pb, Cu, Zn) needs and city development: the Paris example (1815–2009)

The aim of this study is to explore the urban and/or industrial needs for non-ferrous metals (lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn)) of Paris (France), a highly developed city conurbation, from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the present. Pb was necessary for the development of urban networks (Pb pipes), Zn for Parisian roofs and Cu for the development of boiler making and electricity. This study is based on economic statistics and shows that the situation evolved from a city transforming ores, having its smelters and transforming metal into goods, to a city where metal smelting has been more or less quickly banned, and where only a small activity of metal transformation into metal-containing goods remains. The patterns of the three metals showed slight differences. The deindustrialization of Paris is also accompanied by a change of the supplying areas over time. Ores were always imported from abroad, because of the lack of French non-ferrous metal mines. But foundries, which were first abroad, had developed in France between the late nineteenth and late twentieth century and were again found abroad at the end of the twentieth century. The transformation of metal into goods left Paris to the benefit of other parts of France first, then of abroad, over time. In a second part, the evaluation of Pb consumption per capita in Paris conurbation shows that Pb needs of Paris conurbation were higher than those of France in the nineteenth century. Then, the Paris demand was satisfied and it became lower than that of France. Both the deindustrialisation of Paris conurbation and its lower needs led to a decrease in the relative weight of Paris for non-ferrous metals, compared to other parts of France.     

New best estimates for radionuclide solid–liquid distribution coefficients in soils. Part 3: miscellany of radionuclides (Cd,Co, Ni,Zn, I,Se, Sb,Pu, Am,and others)

New best estimates for the solid–liquid distribution coefficient (K_d) for a set of radionuclides are proposed, based on a selective data search and subsequent calculation of geometric means. The K_d best estimates are calculated for soils grouped according to the texture and organic matter content. For a limited number of radionuclides this is extended to consider soil cofactors affecting soil–radionuclide interaction, such as pH, organic matter content, and radionuclide chemical speciation. Correlations between main soil properties and radionuclide K_d are examined to complete the information derived from the best estimates with a rough prediction of K_d based on soil parameters. Although there are still gaps for many radionuclides, new data from recent studies improve the calculation of K_d best estimates for a number of radionuclides, such as selenium, antimony, and iodine.     

中国CO2排放趋势的经济分析

气候变化问题已成为国际社会高度关注的热点，中国作为世界上第二大CO2排放国，正面临着越来越严峻的减排压力。在讨论Kaya恒等式及其政策涵义的基础上，利用修改后的Kaya恒等式对1971-2005年期间中国的CO2排放进行了无残差分解，并结合宏观经济背景的变迁对从“四五”到“十五”计划期间的排放变化展开详细分析。结果表明经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素，能源效率的提高有利于减少CO2排放，而能源结构的低碳化则是降低CO2五排放水平的重要战略选择．最后强调指出加快产业结构调整、发展高能效技术以及清洁燃料技术等政策选择不仅能促进“十一五”期间单位GDP能耗降低20％约束性目标的实现。而且也能有效减少中国CO2的排放量。为减缓气候变化做出贡献。     

Probabilistic distribution coefficients (Kds) in freshwater for radioisotopes of Ag,Am, Ba,Be, Ce,Co, Cs,I, Mn,Pu, Ra,Ru, Sb,Sr and Th – implications for uncertainty analysis of models simulating the transport of radionuclides in rivers

The objective of this study was to provide operational probability density functions (PDFs) for distribution coefficients (K_ds) in freshwater, representing the partition of radionuclides between the particulate and the dissolved phases respectively. Accordingly, the K_d variability should be considered in uncertainty analysis of transport and risk assessment models. The construction of PDFs for 8 elements (Ag, Am, Co, Cs, I, Mn, Pu and Sr) was established according to the procedure already tested in Durrieu et al. [2006. A weighted bootstrap method for the determination of probability density functions of freshwater distribution coefficients (K_ds) of Co, Cs, Sr and I radioisotopes. Chemosphere 65 (8), 1308–1320]: (i) construction of a comprehensive database where K_ds values obtained under various environments and parametric conditions were collected; (ii) scoring procedure to account for the ‘quality’ of each datapoint (according to several criteria such as the presentation of data (e.g. raw data vs mean with or without replicates), contact time, pH, solid-to-liquid ratio, expert judgement) in the construction of the PDF; (iii) weighted bootstrapping procedure to build the PDFs, in order to give more importance to the most relevant datapoints. Two types of PDFs were constructed: (i) non-conditional, usable when no knowledge about the site of concern is available; (ii) conditional PDFs corresponding to a limited range of parameters such as pH or contact time; conditional PDFs can thus be used when some parametric information is known on the site under study. For 7 other radionuclides (Ba, Be, Ce, Ra, Ru, Sb and Th), a simplified procedure was adopted because of the scarcity of data: only non-conditional PDFs were built, without incorporating a scoring procedure.     

国际城市CO2排放清单研究进展及评述

综述和分析了国际城市CO2排放清单研究进展,及国际组织/机构建立的城市清单标准和协议.将城市清单方法划分为直接排放法、碳足迹法和直接-间接排放混合法,并比较分析了各种方法的特点和优劣势.探讨了城市清单中范围3的内容和计算深度及城市交通排放分配问题.早期城市排放清单基本沿用国家清单方法,但当城市作为消费者的特色愈加明显,其清单方法学受城市物质循环思想的影响,已经不同于国家清单方法并逐渐成熟.在准确性、公平性和效率性原则下,直接-间接排放混合法成为城市清单的主流方法,当前排放主要包括范围1+范围2,但未来范围1+范围2+范围3(重点产品和服务)将成为主流趋势.城市清单中范围3的标准化和可操作性问题,及城市交通分配方法的统一和规范是近期城市清单研究的重点和难点.城市CO2排放监测将会成为城市清单的重要支撑,其作为独立数据源将在城市清单的可测量、可报告、可核查中会发挥重要作用.     

中国经济增长与CO2排放演化探析

随着全球能源消耗的持续增加,温室气体的排放和气候灾变日益受到各国政府的高度关注,有关区域经济发展与大气环境效应演变规律和态势的研究亦方兴未艾。本文旨在采用SPSS统计软件和Excel系统。以库兹涅茨环境曲线{EKC）及衍生曲线为依据,对中国CO2排放量与人均收入增长时序资料进行统计拟合得出中国经济发展与CO2排放的函数关系。研究表明,三次曲线方程较之标准型的环境库兹涅茨二次曲线方程更能映示中国数十年来经济发展与CO2排放变化之间的相依关系。这种似“N型”而非“倒U型”的演化特征。意昧着我国在同时推进经济发展和环境保护事业上仍处于过渡期,尚无法达到两者协同发展的阶段。为此,本文对我国耒案经济．社会的健康发展和CO2减排提出了系列应对的策略。     

Dynamics, deterministic nature and correlations of outdoor (222)Rn and (220)Rn progeny concentrations measured at Bacău, Romania

The long-term variation, nature and correlations of outdoor ²²²Rn and ²²⁰Rn progeny concentrations measured during the period 1994-2009 were investigated. The time series of data were obtained within the framework of the monitoring program performed by the Environmental Radioactivity Monitoring Station (ERMS) Bac?u, a component part of the National Environmental Radioactivity Survey Network (NERSN), coordinated by National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA). The measuring method is based on the total beta measurements of atmospheric aerosol filters, using a low background total beta counter and (⁹⁰Sr/Y) reference standard. Analysis of the time series of progeny concentrations in the low atmosphere makes evident different patterns of variation of these concentrations: diurnal, seasonal and annual. A possible relationship of progeny concentration increase with global warming is emphasized. In order to find the dominant frequency of the physical processes determining progeny concentration variability the power spectrum has been used. The deterministic nature of the time series of concentrations has been studied making use of the autocorrelation function and stationarity of the original data and of their phase randomized time series. Also, the correlations with meteorological parameters have been investigated using Pearson’s correlation coefficient with corresponding level of significance.     

Uses of Fish and Game by Inhabitants of an Extractive Reserve (Upper Juruá, Acre, Brazil)

The fishing and hunting performed by inhabitants of the Extractive Reserve of the Upper Juruá, Acre, Brazil was studied, and an ecological analysis on the use of fish and game, including preferences, taboos and medicinal uses, and of fish abundance was made. Research was carried out at the Upper Juruá Extractive Reserve in three visits (1993 and 1994). A total of 143 individuals (101 families) living along the banks of the rivers Juruá, Tejo, Bagé, S. João and Breu were interviewed, and 115 species of fish with set gillnets were collected. Local economic activities included rubber-tapping and small-scale agriculture. Fishing was especially important in the dry season, when cast net and hook and line were used. Hunting and game consumption were intensive in the wet season. Some local rules may be useful as starting points for local management, such as the use of fish diversity through lake management, the use of water level seasonality, hunting periods or quotas, and food taboos. The integration of academic research with indigenous knowledge and demands is important to develop management plans which protect both biological and cultural diversity.     

Belligerent broadcasting,male anti-authoritarianism and anti-environmentalism: the case of Top Gear (BBC, 2002–2015)

ABSTRACT

This article considers the format and cultural politics of the hugely successful UK television program Top Gear (BBC 2002–2015). It analyzes how—through its presenting team—it constructed an informal address predicated around anti-authoritarian or contrarian banter and protest masculinity. Regular targets for Top Gear presenter’s protest—curtailed by broadcast guidelines in terms of gender and ethnicity—are deflected onto the “soft” targets of government legislation on environmental issues or various forms of regulation “red tape. Repeated references to speed cameras, central London congestion charges and “excessive” signage are all anti-authoritarian, libertarian discourses delivered through a comedic form of performance address. Thus, the BBC’s primary response to complaints made about this program was to defend the program’s political views as being part of the humor. The article draws on critical discourse analysis and conversation analysis to consider how the program licensed a particular form of engagement that helped it to deflect criticisms, and considers the limits to such discursive positioning. We conclude by examining the controversies that finally led, in 2015, to the removal of the main presenter, Jeremy Clarkson, and the ending of this version of the program through the departure of the team to an on-demand online television service.     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

中国城市化发展阶段与CO2排放的关系研究

目前节能减排已经成为中国“十二五”规划面临的主要任务之一,相关部门在进行决策时不能不考虑城市发展水平与CO2排放的关系.通过协整理论及修正误差模型分析结果表明,由于中国经历着经济转轨和社会转型,虽然1949-2007年城市化与CO2排放并不存在长期均衡关系,但改革开放前后城市化和CO2排放量都呈现出长期稳定的比例关系,即CO2排放随着城市化水平的提高而不断提高,且改革开放前后城市化水平对CO2排放影响存在差异.另外,尽管从短期来看,CO2排放不受当年城市化变动的影响,但从长期来看,不论改革开放前还是改革开放以后,城市化与CO2排放之间具有长期的稳定关系.城市化对CO2排放的影响存在一定的滞后性.因此,相关政府部门在进行决算时不能脱离城市化发展阶段,即要考虑短期影响,更要在战略高度进行长期规划,可通过把握城市化的进程来控制CO2排放增长的速度.     

与限控CO2排放有关的若干指标分析

本文针对美国政府近来提出的未来10年问使其GDP的CO2排放强度下降18%的承诺，就与限控CO2排放相关的若干指标，包括GDP的CO2排放强度、CO2排放对GDP的弹性、能源消费弹性、能源消费的CO2排放强度、GDP的能源消费强度等相互间的关系以及其年变化率与GDP年增长率之间的关系，进行了定量的数学推导，并以确定的数学关系式为工具，对美国承诺所涉及的经济增长、能源消费等相关问题进行了分析。     

中国省级CO2排放影响因素的空间计量分析

提出面板数据空间误差分量模型,采用基于广义矩1估计的可行广义最小二乘法估计方法,研究1997-2007年间,我国省级CO2排放的影响因素.实证结果表明,我国省级CO2排放量存在显著的正向空间相关性,CO2排放较多的省份往往会影响邻近地区的CO2排放;CO2排放量与人均GDP呈倒N型环境库兹涅兹曲线.未考虑空间相关性时,CO2排放转折点为人均GDP 51 73O元,我国目前仍处于CO2排放量上升期;采用面板数据空间误差分量模型修正后,CO2排放下降转折点为人均GDP约53 237元,较未考虑空间因素时有所提高,省际间的空间相互影响,对CO2排放下降转折点的人均GDP提出更高的要求;实证研究结果同时显示,煤炭消费比重提高及人口数量增大,都将显著增加我国CO2排放量,体现优化能源结构和控制人口增长对抑制CO2排放增长的重要性.     

崇明东滩滨海围垦湿地生长季CO2通量特征

利用涡度相关法,观测了崇明东滩滨海围垦湿地2013年生长季的CO2通量,并分析了CO2通量动态特征及相关环境因子对其的影响。结果表明：该湿地2013年生长季累积净生态系统CO2交换量(NEE)达-1 033257 g/m2,表现为明显的CO2的“汇”。各月NEE平均日动态虽有差异,但均表现为典型的“U”型曲线;各月均表现为吸收CO2,其中7月份月累积NEE值最小,为-274928 g/m2,而9月份最大,为-67440 g/m2;就生态系统呼吸(Reco)占生态系统总第一性生产力(GPP)的比例(Z值)而言,4月份最小,而9月份最大。光合有效辐射(PAR)和日间净生态系统CO2交换量(NEEd)之间符合直角双曲线关系,表观量子效率(α)和最大光合速率(Pmax)分别在6月份和8月份达到最大值;相对于土壤温度(Ts),4 m气温(Ta4)能够更好的解释NEEn和NEEd的变化;各月NEEn与Ta4之间符合极显著指数函数关系;在7和8月份,NEEn与Ta4之间呈现出极显著负相关,即Ta4的升高能够抑制NEEn的增大,而其余月份则为极显著正相关。各月NEEd与Ta4之间均符合极显著二次函数关系,而在4、6以及9月份,NEEd与Ts10及Ts30之间并无显著相关性。就Q10值而言,除了7和8月,其余月份均呈现出Q10(Ta4)<Q10(Ts10)<Q10(Ts30)的规律。土壤体积含水量(SWC)和土壤盐度(Ss)是NEE的重要影响因子,二者与NEEn及NEEd之间均表现为极显著的相关性     

上海城市草坪CO2排放通量特征及其影响因子

草坪是城市绿地系统的重要组成部分,为量化其在城市碳平衡中的作用,采用静态箱 气相色谱法对上海结缕草草坪CO2排放通量进行了研究。结果表明：CO2排放通量具有明显的日变化和季节变化特征,日变化表现为昼高夜低的特点,最大排放通量一般出现在正午前后,最小在清晨,最大日较差为1 1877 mg/（m2·h）（7月1日）,最小892 mg/（m²·h）（1月3日）。CO₂排放通量的季节变化呈单峰型,夏季7月最大,春秋季次之,冬季1月最小,与温度的季节变化一致。观测期间年平均CO2排放通量为6194 mg/（m2·h）。对上海城市结缕草草坪观测期间,温度是CO2排放通量变化的主要影响因素。研究成果不仅可为城市草坪碳排放提供基础数据,也可为城市碳循环研究和管理提供参考.     

Environmental tritium (³H) and hydrochemical investigations to evaluate groundwater in Varahi and Markandeya river basins, Karnataka, India

The present study aimed at assessing the activity of natural radionuclides (³H) and hydrochemical parameters (viz., pH, EC, F⁻, NO₃⁻, Cl⁻, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺) in the groundwater used for domestic and irrigation purposes in the Varahi and Markandeya river basins to understand the levels of hydrochemical parameters in terms of the relative age(s) of the groundwater contained within the study area. The recorded environmental ³H content in Varahi and Markandeya river basins varied from 1.95 ± 0.25 T.U. to 11.35 ± 0.44 T.U. and 1.49 ± 0.75 T.U. to 9.17 ± 1.13 T.U. respectively. Majority of the samples in Varahi (93.34%) and Markandeya (93.75%) river basins being pre-modern water with modern recharge, significantly influenced by precipitation and river inflowing/sea water intrusion. The EC-Tritium and Tritium-Fluoride plots confirmed the existence of higher total dissolved solids (SEC > 500 μS/cm) and high fluoride (MAC > 1.5 mg/L) in groundwater of Markandeya river basin, attributed to relatively longer residence time of groundwater interacting with rock formations and vice versa in case of Varahi river basin. The tritium-EC and tritium-chloride plots indicated shallow and deep circulating groundwater types in Markandeya river basin and only shallow circulating groundwater type in Varahi river basin. Increasing Mg relative to Ca with decreasing tritium indicated the influence of incongruent dissolution of a dolomite phase. The samples with high nitrate (MAC > 45 mg/L) are waters that are actually mixtures of fresh water (containing very high nitrate, possibly from agricultural fertilizers) and older ‘unpolluted’ waters (containing low nitrate levels), strongly influenced by surface source.     

规模效率和技术进步对CO2排放影响的实证

本文利用DEA的方法从全要素生产率中分解出规模效率、技术进步和纯技术效率三个指标,然后基于1998-2008年的省际面板数据分析了不同地区的工业规模效率及技术进步对CO2排放影响的程度及差异化的原因.研究结果显示:从总体来看,技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放有抑制作用,而规模效率则与CO2排放呈正向关系,但各个地区的情况不同,东中部地区的技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了抑制作用,东北地区和西部地区的技术进步则对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了促进作用;东中部地区的规模效率对单位GDP CO2排放的影响程度要远小于东部地区和西部地区;产生这些差异的原因可能是与我国区域间技术进步与规模效率所属的种类不同有关,东部地区的技术进步可能属于节能型技术进步,而西部地区则属于耗能型的技术进步;东北地区和西部地区规模效率的提升可能更多地依靠能源消耗,中东部地区则有所改善.     

能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化

基于我国能源消费和经济增长特点,采用对数平均的Divisa方法对我国1990~2007年的CO2排放进行分解分析。结果表明：经济增长效应是我国CO2排放增加的主要因素,能源强度效应是抑制CO2排放的主要原因,人口效应和结构效应对碳排放的影响不大。分地区的研究表明：东部地区的经济发展和能源强度效应对CO2排放量的影响高于中西部地区,人口效应使东部地区碳排放增加,使中西部地区碳排放降低,能源利用结构变化对东部地区的碳排放有一定的抑制作用,对中西部地区的影响较小。因此,要降低我国的CO2排放,需要针对地区特点制定不同的政策,东部地区需要进一步提升技术水平,进而提高能源利用效率,对中西部地区需要逐步改善以煤为主的能源消费结构,提高清洁能源比重,同时调整产业结构,发展服务业和技术含量高的低能耗制造业。     

Concentrations of U,U, U,Th, Th,Th, Ra,Ra, Ra,Po, Pb and Pb in drinking water in Italy: reconciling safety standards based on measurements of gross α and β

Some important naturally occurring α- and β-radionuclides in drinking water samples collected in Italy were determined and the radiological quality evaluated. The mean activity concentrations (mBq L⁻¹) of the radionuclides in the water samples were almost in the order: 26 ± 36 (²³⁴U) > 21 ± 30 (²³⁸U) > 8.9 ± 15 (²²⁶Ra) > 4.8 ± 6.3 (²²⁸Ra) > 4.0 ± 4.1 (²¹⁰Pb) > 3.2 ± 3.7 (²¹⁰Po) > 2.7 ± 1.2 (²¹²Pb) > 1.4 ± 1.8 (²²⁴Ra) > 1.1 ± 1.3 (²³⁵U) > 0.26 ± 0.39 (²²⁸Th) > 0.0023 ± 0.0009 (²³⁰Th) > 0.0013 ± 0.0006 (²³²Th). The mean estimated dose (μSv yr⁻¹) to an adult from the water intake was in this order: 2.8 ± 3.3 (²¹⁰Po) > 2.4 ± 3.2 (²²⁸Ra) > 2.1 ± 2.1 (²¹⁰Pb) > 1.8 ± 3.1 (²²⁶Ra) > 0.94 ± 1.30 (²³⁴U) > 0.70 ± 0.98 (²³⁸U) > 0.069 ± 0.087 (²²⁴Ra) > 0.036 ± 0.044 (²³⁵U) > 0.014 ± 0.021 (²²⁸Th) > 0.012 ± 0.005 (²¹²Pb) > 0.00035 ± 0.00029 (²³⁰Th) > 0.00022 ± 0.00009 (²³²Th). It is obvious that ²¹⁰Po, ²²⁸Ra, ²¹⁰Pb and ²²⁶Ra are the most important dose contributors in the drinking water intake. As far as the seventeen brands of analysed drinking water were concerned, the committed effective doses were in the range of 2.81–38.5 μSv yr⁻¹, all well below the reference level of the committed effective dose (100 μSv yr⁻¹) recommended by the WHO. These data throw some light on the scale of the radiological impact on the public from some naturally occurring radionuclides in drinking water, and can also serve as a comparison for the dose contribution from artificial radionuclides released to the environment as a result of human practices. Based on the radionuclide composition in the analysed waters, comment was made on the new screening level for gross α activity in guidelines for drinking-water quality recommended by the WHO, 2004.