The Bulgarian Emergency Response System for dose assessment in the early stage of accidental releases to the atmosphere

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) is being developed in the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology since 1994. BERS is based on numerical weather forecast meteorological information and a numerical long-range dispersion model accounting for the transport, dispersion, chemical and radioactive transformations of pollutants. In the present paper, the further development of this system for a mixture of radioactive gaseous and aerosol pollutants is described. The basic module for the BERS, the numerical dispersion model EMAP, is upgraded with a “dose calculation block”. Two scenarios for hypothetical accidental atmospheric releases from two NPPs, one in Western, and the other in Eastern Europe, are numerically simulated. The effective doses from external irradiation, from air submersion and ground shinning, effective dose from inhalation and absorbed dose by thyroid gland formed by 37 different radionuclides, significant for the early stage of a nuclear accident, are calculated as dose fields for both case studies and discussed.     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.