Manganese nodule project economics: Factors relating to the Pacific region

This paper discusses and compares the main elements that determine the overall economics of nodule projects. The rarely examined issue of the impact on costs of processing nodules in different locations in the Pacific region is investigated. The authors then move on to an analysis of the sensitivity of nodule economics to changes in major cost and revenue elements. The paper then shifts from the quantitative to the more qualitative issues that may influence future seabed mining developments, including: the implications of the recently established 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones; the discovery of cobalt-rich manganese crusts; the prospects for nodule or crust mining for strategic reasons.     

Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

Indivisibility and divisibility in land development over time and under uncertainty

The quasi-option value (QOV) literature originated by Arrow et al. (Arrow, K.J., Fisher, A.C., 1974. Environmental preservation, uncertainty, and irreversibility. Quarterly Journal of Economics 88, 312-319) and by Henry (Henry, C., 1974. Option values in the economics of irreplaceable assets. Review of Economic Studies 41, 89-104) is largely concerned with the analysis of two-period models of land development. Our paper extends this literature by analyzing two scenarios in which the decision to develop land is made in a multi-period and stochastic framework. In the first scenario, the development decision is indivisible. In contrast, in the second scenario, the development decision is divisible. Specifically, we study the properties of the indivisible development decision when there is a time constraint on when land is to be developed. We then analyze the ways in which the divisible land development decision depends on the extent of a landowner's landholding and on the number of development opportunities awaiting this landowner.     

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

Scenario‐Based and Scenario‐Neutral Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Operational Performance of a Multipurpose Reservoir

Scenario‐based and scenario‐neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change‐driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology. Streamflow projections from the CGCM3.1 general circulation model for the A1B emission scenario were used to generate stochastic reservoir inflows that were then further perturbed to simulate a potentially drier future. These were then used to drive a simple reservoir model. In the scenario‐based analysis, we found reservoir operations are vulnerable to climate change. Increases in fall and winter inflow could lead to more frequent flood storage, reducing flexibility to store incoming flood flows. Uncertainty in spring inflow volume complicates projection of future filling performance. The reservoir may fill more or less often, depending on whether springs are wetter or drier. In the summer, drawdown may occur earlier to meet conservation objectives. From the scenario‐neutral analysis, we identified thresholds of streamflow magnitude that can predict climate change impacts for a wide range of scenarios. Our results highlight projected operational challenges for Cougar Dam and provide an example of how scenario‐based and scenario‐neutral approaches may be applied concurrently to assess climate change impacts.     

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.     

Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland,Sweden and Norway

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.     

Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA methodology used in each paper was assessed based on four main criteria: coverage, consistency, uncertainty assessment, and efficiency. We find a significant increase in SA applications, especially in the environmental field. Theoretical developments in the field represent a small fraction of published studies and do not increase in time. The methods used to develop different scenarios vary widely across the academic literature and applications reviewed. Similarly, the methods and data used to characterize the scenarios and develop response strategies are extremely diverse and are limited by factors such as computational tractability and available time and resources. Based on this review, we recommend a regular process for scenario analysis that includes the steps of analysis, scenario definition, and evaluation.     

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.     

A methodological note on ethics,economics, and the justification of action

Two disciplines claim to provide justification of action. Ethics gives you moral reasons to act upon, whereas economics exploits the concept of rationality. The paper discusses two theories of interdisciplinarity of ethics and economics in order to clarify the relationship. The traditional view of a hierarchical ordering of ethics and economics is rejected, and it is claimed that there are substantial economic contributions to ethical justification.     

Regression modeling of streamflow, baseflow, and runoff using geographic information systems

Regression models for predicting total streamflow (TSF), baseflow (TBF), and storm runoff (TRO) are needed for water resource planning and management. This study used 54 streams with >20 years of streamflow gaging station records during the period October 1971 to September 2001 in Pennsylvania and partitioned TSF into TBF and TRO. TBF was considered a surrogate of groundwater recharge for basins. Regression models for predicting basin-wide TSF, TBF, and TRO were developed under three scenarios that varied in regression variables used for model development. Regression variables representing basin geomorphological, geological, soil, and climatic characteristics were estimated using geographic information systems. All regression models for TSF, TBF, and TRO had R(2) values >0.94 and reasonable prediction errors. The two best TSF models developed under scenarios 1 and 2 had similar absolute prediction errors. The same was true for the two best TBF models. Therefore, any one of the two best TSF and TBF models could be used for respective flow prediction depending on variable availability. The TRO model developed under scenario 1 had smaller absolute prediction errors than that developed under scenario 2. Simplified Area-alone models developed under scenario 3 might be used when variables for using best models are not available, but had lower R(2) values and higher or more variable prediction errors than the best models.     

Environmental sustainability assessment of food waste valorization options

Food waste can be valorized through different technologies, such as anaerobic digestion, incineration, and animal feed production. In this study we analyzed the environmental performance of two food waste valorization scenarios from a company of the retail sector in Belgium, through exergy analysis, exergetic life cycle assessment (ELCA), and a traditional life cycle assessment (LCA). In scenario 1 all food waste was considered to be valorized in an anaerobic digestion (producing electricity, heat, digestate and sorting the packaging material to be used as fuel for cement industry), while in scenario 2 a bread fraction was valorized to produce animal feed and a non-bread fraction was valorized in an anaerobic digestion (producing the same products on scenario 1, but in lower amounts). Scenario 2 was 10% more efficient than scenario 1 in the exergy analysis. For the ELCA and the single score LCA, scenario 2 presented lower environmental impacts than scenario 1 (32% and 26% lower, respectively). These results were mainly due to the avoided products from traditional supply chain (animal feed produced from agricultural products) and lower exergy loss at the feed production plant. Nevertheless, the high dry matter content of the bread waste played an important role on these results, therefore it should be pointed out that valorizing food waste to animal feed seems to be a better option only for the fractions of food waste with low water content (as bread waste).     

Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia

We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels.     

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.     

The valuation of historical sites: a case study of Valdivia,Chile

The economic valuation of cultural heritage is an area of increasing interest and an important research topic in the emerging field of cultural economics. Many services and values associated with cultural heritage are not traded in markets, and their estimation requires methods developed for the valuation of non-market goods, such as those used in environmental economics. This paper applies the contingent valuation method with double dichotomous choice to estimate the value of historical sites in the city of Valdivia, Chile. The valuation exercise was implemented by designing a hypothetical guided walking tour to a cluster of historical sites in the city centre, and surveying tourists visiting the city during the summer of 2004. Parametric and non-parametric statistical methods were used to estimate the survival distribution and the mean and median estimates of the willingness-to-pay (WTP). The study emphasizes the importance of explicitly treating heterogeneous preferences and the sensitivity of the survival distribution to the estimation methods used.     

External cost internalisation of urban transport: a case study of Dublin

Transport users do not currently pay all costs associated with their transport activities and in particular do not pay the costs they impose on the environment. Case studies on Dublin, Amsterdam, Brussels and London have been conducted to evaluate how best to meet the requirement of the European Commission in its fair and efficient pricing aims in the transport sector, i.e. where transport users are made to pay all costs they impose. The paper presents the results of Do Nothing (DN) and Do Something (DS) scenarios for 2005 where in the latter case each transport user pays for all costs they impose including pollution, noise, accidents etc. The Dublin results, from an economics model used in the study, are examined in detail; the findings are compared with those of parallel studies conducted in the other cities to demonstrate the international relevance of this work. The comparison between the DN and DS scenarios indicates that taxes on all transport modes should be increased substantially, particularly in the morning and evening peak periods. As a result of the price increases, travel demand is reduced. A practical example where transport users could be made to pay for all their costs is road use pricing, i.e. charging individuals for the use of road space. The taxation levels suggested in the DS scenario have been used in a road use pricing trial in Dublin, the results of which were published in O'Mahony, Geraghty and Humphreys (Transportation 27, 269-283, 2000), to see if the reductions in the travel requirements of individuals proposed by the economics model are in fact true. The principles of the work presented in this paper are not only relevant to environmental impact management in the transport sector but can also be applied to other sectors.     

ECONOMICS AND FEDERAL WATER PROJECTS1

While the science of economics is widely used in Federal water resource development projects, the usual procedure of applying an analytical discipline to arrive at a conclusion is reversed. The “answer” is usually provided ahead of time and economics is assigned the task of justifying the preconceived conclusion. This leads to a series of mitigatory effects in which economics as a science is not allowed to freely function. This article attempts to illustrate some of these “unusual” uses of economics in Federal water projects and note the “answers” we would logically expect from the economic discipline. Even though the theory of economics is often subverted, there are positive aspects to the role of economics in evaluating Federal water projects.     

An Ecological Basis for Managing Giant Sequoia Ecosystems

A strategy for management of giant sequoia groves is formulated using a conceptual framework for ecosystem management recently developed by Region Five of the USDA Forest Service. The framework includes physical, biological, and social dimensions. Environmental indicators and reference variability for key ecosystem elements are discussed in this paper. The selected ecosystem elements include: 1) attitudes, beliefs, and values; 2) economics and subsistence; 3) stream channel morphology; 4) sediment; 5) water; 6) fire; 7) organic debris; and 8) vegetation mosaic. Recommendations are made for the attributes of environmental indicators that characterize these elements. These elements and associated indicators will define and control management activities for the protection, preservation, and restoration of national forest giant sequoia ecosystems.     

Addressing criticality for rare earth elements in petroleum refining: The key supply factors approach

The group of elements known as the rare earth elements (REEs) is comprised of the 15 lanthanides. REEs are used in a number of technologies including catalysts for automobiles and petroleum refining, magnets for wind turbines and defense technologies, and phosphors in lighting and computer and TV screens. REEs are actually quite abundant in the earth′s crust. The elements are deemed “rare” because they are found in low concentrations and are difficult to extract economically. China holds 48% of the global REE reserves, and until 2012, production of REEs was almost exclusive to China. Over the past decade, China has been steadily decreasing its REE export quotas, reducing the supply of REEs available to the rest of the world. REEs are considered critical materials according to the National Science and Technology Council, which defines critical elements as those serving an essential function in the manufacture of a product, the absence of which would cause significant social consequence. Thus, it is extremely important for consumers of REEs to be aware of and understand the risks facing the supply REEs, as awareness is the first and most important step in developing strategies to mitigate risk. This report presents a mechanism for identifying the risks present in a supply–demand scenario and determining the criticality of an individual rare earth element under specific circumstances.     

Environmental management: A system approach

This paper presents a system framework whose purpose is to improve understanding of environmental management. By analyzing the links between elements of the environmental management system, it is possible to construct a model that aids thinking systematically about the decision-making subsystem, and other subsystems, of the entire environmental management system.Through a multidisciplinary environmental approach, each of the individual subsystems is able to adapt to threats and opportunities. The fields of government, market economics, social responsibility and ecology, for example, are so complex that it is extremely difficult to develop a framework that gives full consideration to all aspects. This paper, through the application of a highly idealized system framework, attempts to show the general relationships that exist between complex system elements.