Modelling the Ecological Vulnerability to Forest Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems Using Geographic Information Technologies

Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model’s predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model’s predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model’s performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.     

Open data and stormwater systems in Los Angeles: applications for equitable green infrastructure

Urban stormwater systems traditionally used “grey” infrastructure to manage runoff. Contemporary designs now incorporate “green” infrastructure, which offers additional potential benefits such as urban amenities and health. Understanding how green and grey infrastructure investments are distributed across urban areas is important for new goals of promoting environmental justice in planning. In California, for instance, public investments increasingly require a percentage of funds to be spent in disadvantaged communities. Recent advancements in the availability of high-detail geographic data in cities can support prioritising investments to fulfil these multiple benefits. This paper analyses the distribution of stormwater infrastructure in Los Angeles (LA) County in relation to design criteria, urban structure and sociodemographic information. It demonstrates an approach for identifying projects that simultaneously address engineering needs and promote equity. Statistical analysis of high-detail sewer locations reveals geographic correlations with key local design parameters, urban characteristics and sociodemographic indicators. Watershed areas in LA County were identified that support multi-benefit projects, meeting dual criteria for infrastructure improvements and disadvantaged community status. As stormwater systems are increasingly designed for multi-benefit outcomes, new design frameworks can emphasise both performance and social equity.     

Flood resilience: consolidating knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors

Flood resilience has been rising up the political, economic and social agendas. Taking an integrated systems approach, using the right design guidance and tools and ensuring that education is in place for all stakeholders are three themes which are intrinsically linked to delivering flood resilience. This paper reviews these themes across the academic research, policy landscape and practitioner approaches, drawing conclusions on the way forward to increase our societies resilience to floods. The term ‘flood resilience’ is being increasingly used, however, it remains to be clearly defined and implemented. The UK, USA and Australia are leading the way in considering what flood resilience really means, but our review has found few examples of action underpinned by an understanding of systems and complexity. This review investigates how performance objectives & indicators are currently interpreted in guidance documents. It provides an in-depth exploration of the methods, that although developed through European and US expertise, can be used for worldwide application. Our analysis highlights that resilience is often embedded in engineering education and frequently linked to risk. This may however, mask the importance of resilience and where it differs from risk. With £2.6 billion to be spent in the UK over the next 6 years on strengthening the country’s flood and coastal defences, this is the opportunity to rethink resilience from a systems approach, and embed that learning into education and professional development of engineers. Our conclusions indicate how consolidating flood resilience knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors is the way forward to deliver flood resilience engineering.     

Benefits of systems thinking for a human and organizational factors approach to safety management

This paper highlights the value of systems theory and its application to human and organizational factors (HOF). HOF specialists consider multiple systems characteristics in their analyses but are often unaware of the relevant theory applied in their analysis. We argue that a structured effort to take key systems characteristics into account in HOF practice would increase the depth and breadth of safety management analyses and help HOF specialists to act more effectively on industrial socio-technical systems. First, the paper identifies the following seven system theory characteristics: constitution, multi-axis representation, limit, emergence, variety, coherence, and causal interaction, which are then illustrated with examples from the HOF field. Finally, we discuss the two main benefits of integrating system thinking in a HOF approach to safety management: (1) an improved understanding of the inner workings of an industrial socio-technical system; and (2) a compendium or a reference to guide for decision-making and the implementation of actions within the industrial socio-technical systems.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

轻烃回收装置大检修动火风险管控措施探讨

针对轻烃回收装置火灾爆炸事故大部分发生在维检修阶段的现象,通过结合生产实际,提出采用动火前施工工序确认制度,严控高风险点位,避免"立体交叉"动火作业等措施,杜绝经验主义和侥幸心理,最大限度避免动火作业着火爆炸事故的发生。文章介绍了轻烃回收装置的介质特点及主要工艺,分析了轻烃回收装置大检修基本流程及动火风险,提出控制动火施工安全风险的管理实践。     

Developing CO2 Emission Parameters to Measure the Environmental Impact on Cooling Applications

This study examines parametric approaches to the calculation of refrigerant-based CO₂ emissions in different cooling areas. Both the exergy analyses of refrigerants, used in domestic, commercial, transportation and industrial applications, and the environmental performances regarding exergetic irreversibility are investigated separately. Then, CO₂ emissions caused by systems are examined via two different parameters, I°) Environmental Impact Factor and ??°) Integrated Impact Factor (CIF). The study is based on a vapor compression cooling cycle model, commonly preferred by cooling applications, and the analyses have been made for 1 kW cooling capacity in relation to evaporator temperatures of the systems. In all cooling application, R134A gas stands out among the others in terms of coefficient of performance and exergy efficiency. Moreover, both emission analyses show that it has the lowest emission value. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the reasons for the refrigerant choice, the design and the selection of such a system, and why exergetic and environmental parameters should be preferred.     

Integrating fire management into land-use planning: A multiple-use management research,development, and applications program

The traditional view of fire as a destructive agent requiring immediate suppression is giving way to the view that fire can and should be used to meet land management goals. Thus,fire control is being replaced by the more general concept offire management, which is based on the need to integrate fire policy with land management objectives. The social, economic, and ecologic effects of fire must be evaluated in the selection of land management alternatives.The activities of fire management organizations—fire prevention, control, and use of fire—must respond to needs of land management. Many agencies have developed fire organizations as separate entities that set their own objectives. The many land and resource managers who have recognized the need to incorporate fire considerations into land-use planning have so far lacked the techniques to do so.As a natural process, fire has an important function in forest and range ecosystems. Fire can greatly influence the quantity and quality of resource outputs; it is a two-edged sword that can either harm or benefit our goals, depending upon the complex effects of fire and the nature of our wants.The Fire in Multiple-Use Management Research, Development, and Applications (RD&A) Program was initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, at the Northern Forest Fire Lab in Missoula to assist land managers. This profile explains what an RD&A program is; discusses its mission, goals, and approach to the problem; and tells why the approach involves federal laboratories, universities, and private research foundations.     

Land use planning and wildfire risk mitigation: an analysis of wildfire-burned subdivisions using high-resolution remote sensing imagery and GIS data

This paper evaluates risk factors that influence the probability that a house will burn from wildfire. A logistic regression is used to analyse data processed from pre-fire and post-fire IKONOS images and other geo-referenced data. The dependent variable is the probability that a given house will burn. A total of 12 independent variables are evaluated: vegetation density; area of defensible space; adjacency of a parcel to public lands; proximity of a house to fire station; road width; road type; parcel size; subdivision morphology; assessed value; elevation; slope and aspect. Model results generally support dominant land use planning and design strategies for wildfire risk reduction including vegetation treatments, site selection with respect to topography, and improving access to fire stations.     

Evaluation of the Fire Simulation Processes of the National Fire Management System's Initial Attack Analysis Processor

The fire simulation processes of the National Fire Management System's (NFMAS) Initial Attack Analysis (IAA) processor were evaluated by conducting two types of sensitivity analysis: one based on a hypothetical set of data to assess IAA's outputs under a wide range of fire input values, and the other using an actual Stanislaus National Forest database to test IAA's validity with a real set of data. The results revealed that IAA's outputs (projected annual number of fires and area burned) were most sensitive, in descending order, to the input values of the fire spread rate, the productivity rates of the suppression forces, and the initial attack time, for all fuel models tested. In contrast, IAA's outputs were extremely insensitive to variations in the fire size at discovery. Changes are necessary in the ways IAA incorporates the fire size at discovery to facilitate the comparison among various fire detection options. The program's “escaped fire situation” analysis was found inadequate, because the projected annual frequencies and final sizes of the simulated escaped fire events produced unacceptable results with the Stanislaus National Forest database. Assigning final sizes to simulated escaped fires according to the fire intensity level in which they are historically expected to occur provides a consistent way of calculation of the projected annual area burned and the consequent cost plus net value change (C + NVC).     

Analyzing the Impacts of Dams on Riparian Ecosystems: A Review of Research Strategies and Their Relevance to the Snake River Through Hells Canyon

River damming provides a dominant human impact on river environments worldwide, and while local impacts of reservoir flooding are immediate, subsequent ecological impacts downstream can be extensive. In this article, we assess seven research strategies for analyzing the impacts of dams and river flow regulation on riparian ecosystems. These include spatial comparisons of (1) upstream versus downstream reaches, (2) progressive downstream patterns, or (3) the dammed river versus an adjacent free-flowing or differently regulated river(s). Temporal comparisons consider (4) pre- versus post-dam, or (5) sequential post-dam conditions. However, spatial comparisons are complicated by the fact that dams are not randomly located, and temporal comparisons are commonly limited by sparse historic information. As a result, comparative approaches are often correlative and vulnerable to confounding factors. To complement these analyses, (6) flow or sediment modifications can be implemented to test causal associations. Finally, (7) process-based modeling represents a predictive approach incorporating hydrogeomorphic processes and their biological consequences. In a case study of Hells Canyon, the upstream versus downstream comparison is confounded by a dramatic geomorphic transition. Comparison of the multiple reaches below the dams should be useful, and the comparison of Snake River with the adjacent free-flowing Salmon River may provide the strongest spatial comparison. A pre- versus post-dam comparison would provide the most direct study approach, but pre-dam information is limited to historic reports and archival photographs. We conclude that multiple study approaches are essential to provide confident interpretations of ecological impacts downstream from dams, and propose a comprehensive study for Hells Canyon that integrates multiple research strategies.     

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.     

An Event-Based Approach for Examining the Effects of Wildland Fire Decisions on Communities

Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal and social organizational scales. These consequences are not limited to the fire event itself. Preparation for the possibility of a fire, actions that suppression agencies take during a fire, and postfire decisions all have consequences, if unknown currently. This article presents an "event-based" approach that can be useful for constructing and systematic discussion about the consequences of wildland fire to human communities. For each of the three major periods within this approach, agencies, communities, and individuals make decisions and take actions that have consequences. The article presents an integrated, temporally based process for examining these consequences, which is similar to others developed in the natural hazards and disaster management literature.     

Establishment of an economic evaluation model for urban recycled water

This study aimed at establishing an economic evaluation model to encourage continuing improvement in performance analysis and applying for any infrastructure system of urban recycled water. A thorough study towards characterization and economic performance assessment of urban water reuse scheme were carried out. An integrated evaluation technique was developed by synthesizing the quantitative and qualitative performance indicators related to the water recycled technology and urban water cycle system. Specific performance indicators and indexes were aggregated into an economic analytical modelling for effective evaluation of the water reuse scheme and technology using uniform economic performance standards. Detailed economic analyses were successfully applied to enable determination of economic lifetime of the technology and the whole water reuse scheme. This research confirmed that productivity, efficiency and reliability measurements and factors could be successfully deployed for determining the scheme performance during various life cycle stages (e.g. design development, operational and functional verification, or comparison with other reuse projects). The economic assessment model was applied to improve uniformity of analytical process and performance measure. This article demonstrates benefits associated with the application of a standardized methodology for performing economic assessment and by maintaining strong correlation between multi-parameter approach and adopted performance criteria in terms of productivity, efficiency and reliability. However, to ensure effectiveness of this assessment, the process would require systematic and perpetual inventory of the scheme performance data, consideration of variable factors such as capital and recurrent costs.     

Sustainable value assessment of farms using frontier efficiency benchmarks

Appropriate assessment of firm sustainability facilitates actor-driven processes towards sustainable development. The methodology in this paper builds further on two proven methodologies for the assessment of sustainability performance: it combines the sustainable value approach with frontier efficiency benchmarks. The sustainable value methodology tries to relate firm performance to the use of different resources. This approach assesses contributions to corporate sustainability by comparing firm resource productivity with the resource productivity of a benchmark, and this for all resources considered. The efficiency is calculated by estimating the production frontier indicating the maximum feasible production possibilities. In this research, the sustainable value approach is combined with efficiency analysis methods to benchmark sustainability assessment. In this way, the production theoretical underpinnings of efficiency analysis enrich the sustainable value approach. The methodology is presented using two different functional forms: the Cobb–Douglas and the translog functional forms. The simplicity of the Cobb–Douglas functional form as benchmark is very attractive but it lacks flexibility. The translog functional form is more flexible but has the disadvantage that it requires a lot of data to avoid estimation problems. Using frontier methods for deriving firm specific benchmarks has the advantage that the particular situation of each company is taken into account when assessing sustainability. Finally, we showed that the methodology can be used as an integrative sustainability assessment tool for policy measures.     

Kerbside collection: A case study from the north-west of England

It is widely agreed that public support is vital to the success of most recycling schemes; the actions of householders are paramount to the success of sustainable waste policies. However, the success of recycling schemes is not just dependent on public participation; it is also dependent on careful planning, effective design and tailoring to local needs.This study has evaluated a kerbside recycling scheme in the north-west of England by comparing the recycling performance of those on alternate collections of residual waste and recyclates with those on weekly residual collections and fortnightly recyclate collections. Three data collection methodologies were adopted: postal questionnaires, set-out rate monitoring, and personal interviews with policy writers.The results demonstrated that alternate collections produce higher recycling set-out rates, suggesting that alternate collections will also generate higher recycling rates. The research showed that if designed and complemented by other services, then an alternate collection system is a realistic waste management approach. However, the local authority and the public appear to use different indicators of success for the scheme. The local authority uses governmental performance indicators (such as best value performance indicators—BVPIs) to measure success, whereas the public's indicators of success tend to focus more on issues such as required changes to established behaviours, convenience and personal preferences.A key recommendation from this study is that all local authorities should carry out local opinion surveys on an annual basis to supplement the BVPIs required by statute. This should help them to fill the information gaps in order to provide a comprehensive, up-to-date and user-responsive waste management service to the public.     

Reflections on the Growing Influence of Good Agricultural Practices in the Global South

EurepGAP is a pioneering field level food safety protocol called ‘good agricultural practices’ currently exercising influence over the global food quality assurance system. Developed by a consortium of major European retailers, this private standard enforces codes of conduct that address issues of health and safety for producers and consumers, as well as working conditions and environmental management on the farmland. Despite various merits and benefits that the standard is premised to offer, the institutional design gives a financial edge to powerful large farms and exporters while diminishing opportunities for smaller growers and exporters to remain in the profitable agricultural export sector of the Global South. This paper explores the institutional origin and evolution of EurepGAP, discusses entry barriers and risks that EurepGAP imposes on the global value chain stakeholders, as well as the ethical implications from broader theoretical perspectives. Subsequently, it examines the evolving nature of a new trend in the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, i.e., the rise of public GAP standards. Promoted by some governments in the Global South, these GAP standards emphasize support for horizontal partnerships among value chain stakeholders, farmer participation, and less capital-intensive agricultural innovations. The paper argues that, within certain limitations, these GAP standards have the potential to be the major alternative GAP approach by encouraging a much broader inclusion of small-scale producers towards the attainment of various social, economic, and environmental benefits.     

Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.     

A Multidisciplinary Decision Support System for Forest Fire Crisis Management

A wildland fire is a serious threat for forest ecosystems in Southern Europe affecting severely and irreversibly regions of significant ecological value as well as human communities. To support decision makers during large-scale forest fire incidents, a multidisciplinary system has been developed that provides rational and quantitative information based on the site-specific circumstances and the possible consequences. The systems architecture consists of several distinct supplementary modules of near real-time satellite monitoring and fire forecast using an integrated framework of satellite Remote Sensing, GIS, and RDBMS technologies equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The system may handle multiple fire ignitions and support decisions regarding dispatching of utilities, equipment, and personnel that would appropriately attack the fire front. The operational system was developed for the region of Penteli Mountain in Attika, Greece, one of the mountain areas in the country most hit by fires. Starting from a real fire incident in August 2000, a scenario is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.