中国自然资源消耗与国家资源安全变化趋势

在大量消耗自然资源与付出一定环境代价的基础上 ,中国经济得以高速增长 ,未来我国将处于世界发展格局的工业文明边缘极 ,注定将消耗更多的自然资源 ,整个社会经济体系对自然资源和环境问题更为敏感 ,我国对国际自然资源的依存度越来越强 ,其它国家的“中国威胁感”增强。鉴于上述基本趋势 ,中国未来资源安全以不出现重大资源危机为目标相对合理 ,在争取资源安全策略方面应采取的方式为 :①逐渐调整我国社会经济结构 ,使之适应自然资源短缺的现实 ,使整个经济体系资源利用效率化 ;②科学地养护我国现有自然资源基础 ,提高自然资源供给能力 ,使其免遭不可恢复的破坏 ;③全面增强各领域的国际影响力 ,积极建造有利于我国充分利用外国资源的国际秩序。     

China as a new shaper of international development: the environmental implications

The emergence of China as a global player challenges the pre-existing dominance of the OECD countries and will continue to be a crucial force for global change in coming decades. The implications of China’s rise will be most significant for low- and middle-income countries, but the outcomes will also affect China’s relations with traditional donors and the understanding of the process of development. While these issues are increasingly explored at the political and economic level, very little analysis is available for the environmental impacts that China has on low- and middle-income countries. It is well understood that China plays a major role in relation to climate change, energy use and natural resource use at the global level; however, the perspective of China’s environmental impacts on low- and middle-income countries is underexplored. This Special Issue, therefore, elaborates the rise of China from the environmental perspective and assesses the impacts of China’s rise on low- and middle-income countries for international research, policy and practice in the field of environment and development. The findings draw on insights relevant for energy, water, forestry and land issues in Asia, Africa and Latin America.     

21世纪前期长江流域粮食产业发展对策

长江流域光、热、水、土等农业资源时空组合优势明显,土地自然生产力较高,粮食生产在全国占有重要地位。21世纪初中国加入WTO以后,长江流域作为“大米带”的优势将更为明显。长江流域粮食产业发展除应考虑国家宏观发展战略,需要采用与国家粮食产业发展相协调的政策体系外,还应解决自身存在的总量不稳、产业化程度低、产业效益差以及品种结构不合理等问题。     

城市化对周边土壤资源与环境的影响

城市化快速发展对土壤资源产生巨大压力。因而对粮食安全与环境生态健康带来严峻挑战，作为一种非再生性自然资源，土壤的各种功能在城市化过程中强烈的人为活动影响下转化，演变和消失，那么，寻求城市化过程中土壤资源的可持续利用，在环境友好的模式下协调土壤自然生态与社会经济发展，最大限谋发挥土壤生态，生产和社会，经济功能，也是城市化快速发展的重要前提，也是最终实现可持续城市目标的基础。     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

基于InVEST模型的鄱阳湖湿地生物多样性情景分析

生态系统服务与功能的评估越来越多地被应用到自然资源管理政策制定中。通过参与式评估框架(FoPIA)方法建立鄱阳湖湿地到2020年的不同土地利用情景,以此作为参数应用到生态系统服务与功能的评估权衡模型(InVEST),以鄱阳湖湿地指示性生物(越冬候鸟)的栖息地为研究对象,定量和空间化评估典型村落未来土地利用情景下候鸟栖息地质量和空间分布特征。结果表明:在生态保育情景下,受生态退耕等因素的影响,栖息地规模增加,人类胁迫活动减少,鄱阳湖湿地典型村落候鸟栖息地的平均质量提高到0.89,比现状水平提高27.0%;在经济发展情景下,人类活动范围的扩张使得候鸟栖息地受到的胁迫增强,栖息地的平均质量下降为0.57,比现状水平低14.0%;在自然增长情景下,候鸟栖息地平均质量为0.66,比现状水平增加了1.5%。     

可持续能源转型:模型构建与分析

为研究可持续能源系统转型路径,以转型理论为概念框架,从宏观、中观和微观多层次对能源系统进行分析,建立了基于代理的系统动力学转型模型。模型选取当前能源消费结构中占较大比重的煤炭、石油、天然气、风能、水电、光伏和核能作为复杂代理,选取消费者作为简单代理,根据中国能源数据对其进行参数化,并模拟运行了能源系统从2016—2050年间各种类型能源消费比重变动的情形。研究结果显示:①外部景观信号的输入对于能源系统的可持续转型有着至关重要的作用。随着景观信号的输入,各类能源的相对比重发生复杂的相互作用,景观信号持续时间越长、强度越大,向可持续能源系统转型的速度越快、规模越大。②到2050年,可持续能源将占一次能源消费比重的60%左右,实现能源系统的可持续转型,其中,水电将在能源系统的可持续化转型中发挥重要的作用。③2030年以前,石油和天然气将是能源系统中煤炭消费比重下降的主要替代品,因为它们的应用技术已经发展成熟,而且它们更适应当前的基础设施,从短期来看相比可持续能源石油和天然气更有优势,在这种情形下,仍然需要继续支持可持续能源的发展,否则能源系统的可持续转型将不会发生。该研究主要探索通过当前能源系统的景观压力强度以及转型的进度,来量化未来需要输入的景观压力强度;通过模拟转型发生的具体情景,对转型的进展进行更清楚的界定,借此来评估二氧化碳的排放路径;模拟模型也可以评估各类能源在不同时间点上的各种可能性,以及探索各类可持续能源的发展潜力。     

Limitations on the renewability of renewable energy resources

The primary supposition about renewable forms of energy is that use of such resources will not result in depletion or exhaustion. While it is true that natural energy flows such assun and wind are not directly subject to degradation by use, there may still be indirect limitations on renewability. The exploitation of natural energy flows may require that systems of nonrenewable “support” resources be used to capture, store, and convert natural energy into useful forms. Poor resource management practices that degrade the support resources may therefore, in effect, endanger renewability. Biomass is an illustrative case of a renewable energy resource with nonrenewable support components. The soil and water management practices of American agriculture, a large-scale biomass production system, are resulting in serious degradation and depletion of these vital system elements. This degradation represents a threat to the future of biomass food and energy supplies.     

People's Biodiversity Registers: Lessons Learnt

People's Biodiversity Registers (PBR) document folk knowledge of status, uses, history, ongoing changes and forces driving changes in biodiversity resources, gainers and losers in these processes and people's perceptions of how these resources should be managed. A number of PBRs have been prepared in different parts of India beginning 1995 through initiatives of NGOs and educational institutions working with local communities and village councils. These attempts have been motivated by a desire to promote decentralised systems of management of natural resources and to create the basis for equitable sharing of benefits of commercial utilisation of folk knowledge of uses of biodiversity. The documents bring together important locality specific information on biodiversity resources and ecological processes affecting them. They lead to recognition of conservation oriented local practices such as protection of sacred groves. They help mobilise local communities to prudently manage local biodiversity resources in ways that would promote social justice. It is however important to recognise that not all folk knowledge may be valid, nor all folk practices wise, and to create systems of careful assessment of the material. There are many encouraging signs globally, as well as within India, such as the coming in force of the Convention on Biological Diversity, forces promoting decentralised democratic systems of governance and institutions of co-management of natural resources which suggest that programmes like PBR will have an important role to play in promoting conservation, sustainable use and equitable sharing of benefits of biodiversity resources in the coming decades.     

国内外土地利用区划研究的回顾与展望

土地利用区划是从区域角度观察和研究地域综合体,探讨土地利用的发展历史、现状特点、变化过程及趋势,从最大限度发挥土地生产潜力及改善土地生态系统的结构与功能出发,对土地的合理利用方向,包括确定国民经济各部门用地的合理分配、结构和布局形式等,在地域上进行分区。通过简要回顾国内外土地利用区划研究的发展历程,总结了土地利用区划研究的理论方法特点及存在的问题,并在此基础上探讨今后土地利用区划研究的重点及发展方向：从自然要素向自然与人文要素有机结合方向转变;从大空间尺度向多空间尺度方向转变;从传统的区划方法向综合集成的新技术手段转变;从静态的区划研究向多要素、多过程耦合的动态区划研究方向转变。     

Spiked sample standards; Their uses and disadvantages in analytical quality control

Standard samples, that is matrices containing precisely known concentrations of various radionuclides, are necessary adjuncts to any analytical quality control program. In general, we prefer the use of “natural matrix standards,” samples into which the radionuclides have become incorporated under natural conditions, and over as long a time span as possible. Under some circumstances, however, real advantages are offered by “spiked sample standards” samples to which the isotope of interest has been added in a precisely known amount, at the time of preparing the standard. It is our purpose to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of spiked standards and to contrast them with those of natural matrix standards, as well as to discuss the preparation of the former class of standards and the evidence supporting our recommendation of caution in their use.In general, spiked standards offer advantages of low cost of preparation, of advance assurance that the amount and chemical form of the radioisotopes added are known, and of the possibility of preparation of unnatural matrices, or of nuclides that are to be expected but not yet to be found in nature. The most salient disadvantages of spiked standards derive from the usual uncertainty concerning the concentration of any radionuclides in the matrix before spiking and from the difficulty of insuring that there will be no difference in analytical behavior between the spike and the same isotope that has become incorporated in the matrix under natural conditions. Consideration of these advantages and disadvantages leads to identification of a list of special problems for which spiked standards may be advantageous and of a list of precautions indicated in the interpretation of the resulting data. The argument against the general applicability of spiked standards appear overwhelming.     

泥石流与人类经济活动

山地是泥石流与人类共存的环境,泥石流作用于山地环境,强烈地影响人类经济活动：人类经济活动也作用于山地环境,强烈地影响泥石流。泥石流对山地环境的危害,主要为破坏地表、破坏生态系统和淤堵江河;泥石流对人类及其经济活动的危害,主要为破坏城镇,村庄,工矿,交通水利水电工程,农田和人类自身的安全。泥石流危害的结果,能导致山地坡面破碎化、沟口沙石化、河床宽浅化和植被逆向演替化,以及耕地贫瘠化、经济发展滞后化和     

Framing natural assets for advancing sustainability research: translating different perspectives into actions

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the context of complex and unprecedented global changes. Future Earth, an international research initiative aiming to advance global sustainability science, has recently launched knowledge–action networks (KANs) as mechanisms for delivering its research strategy. The research initiative is currently developing a KAN on “natural assets” to facilitate and enable action-oriented research and synthesis towards natural assets sustainability. ‘Natural assets’ has been adopted by Future Earth as an umbrella term aiming to translate and bridge across different knowledge systems and different perspectives on peoples’ relationships with nature. In this paper, we clarify the framing of Future Earth around natural assets emphasizing the recognition on pluralism and identifying the challenges of translating different visions about the role of natural assets, including via policy formulation, for local to global sustainability challenges. This understanding will be useful to develop inter-and transdisciplinary solutions for human–environmental problems by (i) embracing richer collaborative decision processes and building bridges across different perspectives; (ii) giving emphasis on the interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic drivers affecting the future trends of investments and disinvestments in natural assets; and (iii) focusing on social equity, power relationships for effective application of the natural assets approach. This understanding also intends to inform the scope of the natural asset KAN’s research agenda to mobilize the translation of research into co-designed action for sustainability.     

Eco-environmental Impact Assessment of the Change of Regional Industrial Structure and Regulative Measures

Acting as an important driving force for the change of the regional land use, the change of industrial structure also has some influences on the ecological environment. The assessment and mechanism analysis of these influences will be beneficial to the sustainable development of regional economy and the improvement of relationships between man and earth. Taking Chuzhou City in Anhui Province as an example, on the basis of a qualitative analysis of the influence of the development of different industry on the regional ecological environment, this paper builds the influence factor of industrial structure on natural environment and the influence index of industrial structure on natural environment, makes a quantitative assessment of the change of the industrial structure and its comprehensive influences on the ecological environment in the Chuzhou City from 1974 to 1995. Studies show that, during the analysed period, Chuzhou City＇s industrial structure has changed markedly, having undergone two transformations. The influence of industrial structure on natural environment from 1974 to 1995 increased as a whole, while from 1996 to 2004, the influence of industrial structure on natural environment decreased year-on-year. These changes indicate that the regional change of industrial structure results in better ecological effects. Finally, we propose appropriate regulatory measures according to our research results.     

Tracing operational conditions for the Ecologically Sustainable Economic Development: the Pareto optimality and the preservation of the biological crucial levels

The operational designing of Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development (ESED) emerges as an urgent and demanding task. Even though ESED has paved the way for thought-provoking and constructive scientific dialogue, appeal for designing an operational ESED is still lagging behind the needs of contemporary societies, leaving much to be desired. With this in mind, the present paper will aim at delineating principles for the operational application of ESED. First, the preservation of crucial properties of environmental functions and ecosystems, emerges as a prime condition of ESED. The second condition concerns the provision of the economic process with sufficient natural inputs; in this context, the paper intends to trace certain operational tenets governing the use of natural resources. Finally, the appropriate institutional settings for the operational design of ESED are traced. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress, human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be addressed, including water stress, land use and food security, natural disasters and environmental migration. A few regional hot spots of climate security will be discussed, such as land-use conflicts in Northern Africa; floods, sea-level rise and human security in Southern Asia; glacier melting and water insecurity in Central Asia and Latin America; water conflicts in the Middle East; climate security in the Mediterranean; and the potential impact on rich countries. Finally, concepts and strategies will be considered to minimize the security risks and move from conflict to cooperation in climate policy.     

关于提高我国自然资源物权化程度的思考

自然资源物权是随着环境资源法和物权法的发展而逐渐进入人们视野的。与传统物权相比，自然资源物权是一组性质有别的权利总称．它在本质上具有物权属性．但也包含准物权的内容。可将其分为土地资源物权和其它自然资源物权。我国的自然资源物权制度主要存在所有权虚化和抽象化、使用权物权化程度不高、土地资源使用权未得到切实保障等缺陷。应当通过强化和实现自然资源所有权、积极推进自然资源使用权物权化来完善我国自然资源物权制度。在具体的制度设计上。必须保障自然资源国家所有权的有效实现，改进和完善自然资源的集体所有权；同时也要推进土地使用权和其它自然资源使用权的物权化，特别是扩大自然资源物权中公民使用权的范围．推进自然资源物权的具体化和制度化。     

公众参与自然资源管理的实践模式——基于国内外典型案例的对比研究

在自然资源管理过程中引入公众参与是为了满足公众自身利益,提高决策的科学性,最终达到自然资源效率提升和可持续利用的双重目标。选取发达国家和发展中国家具有代表性的典型案例,进行对比分析;侧重于主导发起主体的不同,归纳出三种参与模式,进而对模式特点、模式间比较以及模式的整体演变过程进行阐析;以发展中国家中国为例,提出在中国实施公众参与自然资源的措施建议和路径导向。结论如下:①发达国家公众参与自然资源管理模式呈现出参与行为的法律化、参与主导的非政府化、参与意识的增强化和参与主体的广泛化特点,而发展中国家的参与模式则呈现出参与主导的政府化、参与意识的淡薄化和参与途径的单一化特点;②依据发起主体不同,公众参与自然资源管理的模式分为政府主导发起型参与、非政府主导发起型参与和公众自觉发起型参与,并按照参与认知水平的提升而不断演进;③在中国实施公众参与自然资源过程中,要提升公众参与认知水平,强化法律保障建设,转变主导发起者角色,拓宽参与途径,从而实现自然资源的可持续利用。     

杭州西湖水体光学状况及影响因子分析

2004年10月8日在杭州西湖6个不同湖区共布设10个采样点进行水下光场的测定,并采集水样分析悬浮物、叶绿素a、有色可溶性有机物（CDOM）浓度。结果表明,3类主要光衰减物质总悬浮物、叶绿素a和DOC的浓度分别为3.68~42.76 mg/L、4.64~85.95 μg/L、5.19~9.22 mg/L;CDOM在440 nm波长处吸收系数为0.30~1.46 m-1;PAR衰减系数在1.13~6.04 m-1间变化,均值为4.00±1.69 m-1;对应的真光层深度为0.76~4.08 m,均值为1.54±1.11 m;仅南湖和茅家埠两个湖区真光层深度大于水深,其他湖区由于水深远大于真光层深度,在现有的光照条件和水位下要恢复沉水植物困难较大。对PAR衰减系数、真光层深度、透明度等表观光学参数与主要水色因子进行相关分析发现,水体中浮游藻类和有机颗粒物对西湖水体光学性质影响最大。     

Response of three dominant shrubs to soil water and groundwater along the oasis-desert ecotone in Northwest China

The ecotone from oasis to desert is an important area for combating sandy desertification. Three dominant desert shrubs (Nitraria tangutorum, Calligonuum mongolicum, Haloxylon ammodendrori) were selected in Minqin Oasis, Northwest China, to determine the groundwater level; soil water potential; and change of the three shrubs in density, coverage, and biomass along the natural and seminatural oasis-desert ecotone (ODE), respectively. The results indicated that traits of desert plant interaction with the topsoil water and groundwater depth along the ODE play an important role in generating complex desert vegetation spatial dynamics. Some natural desert plant species with shallow root systems will distribute themselves according to distribution of topsoil water. Thus, the distribution of Nitraria tangutorum had a decreasing trend in distribution along ODE. Calligonuum mongolicum occurs in different trends in natural and seminatural ODE due to utilizing groundwater as well as topsoil water. Some plant species with deep roots, such as Haloxylon ammodendron, will show more degradation near oases and will exhibit an ascending trend along ODE. Therefore, it is of primary importance to protect the integrity of groundwater depth in order to protect the stability of the oasis-desert ecotones. The text was submitted by the authors in English.