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1.
Vulnerability and adaptation of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
Pytrik Reidsma Frank Ewert Alfons Oude Lansink Rik Leemans 《Regional Environmental Change》2009,9(1):25-40
Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers’ income. The underlying relationships are not well understood,
particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts
of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers’
income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions
are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing
conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections
of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered,
as they largely influence the potential impacts. 相似文献
2.
Perceptions of climate change,multiple stressors and livelihoods on marginal African coasts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Matthew Bunce Sergio Rosendo Katrina Brown 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2010,12(3):407-440
Studies of multiple stressors in Africa often focus on vulnerable inland communities. Rising concentrations of the world’s
poor live in coastal rural–urban areas with direct dependencies on marine as well as terrestrial ecosystem goods and services.
Using participatory methods we elicited perceptions of stressors and their sources, impacts and consequences held by coastal
communities in eastern Africa (Mtwara in Tanzania and Maputo in Mozambique). Respondent-informed timelines suggest wars, economic
policies and natural increase have led to natural resource-dependent populations in marginal, previously little-inhabited
lowland coastal areas. Respondents (n = 91) in interviews and focus groups rank climate stressors (temperature rise/erratic rain) highest amongst human/natural
stressors having negative impacts on livelihoods and wellbeing (e.g., cross-scale cost of living increases including food
and fuel prices). Sources of stress and impacts were mixed in time and space, complicating objective identification of causal
chains. Some appeared to be specific to coastal areas. Respondents reported farms failing and rising dependence on stressed
marine resources, food and fuel prices and related dependence on traders and credit shrunk by negative global market trends.
Development in the guise of tourism and conservation projects limited access to land–sea livelihoods and resources in rural–urban
areas (coastal squeeze). Mental modelling clarified resource user perceptions of complex linkages from local to international
levels. We underline risks of the poor in marginal coastal areas facing double or multiple exposures to multiple stressors,
with climate variability suggesting the risks of climate change. 相似文献
3.
Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia: community perceptions, attitudes and (in)actions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement
is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance
they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities,
which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to
date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the
broader rural community—not only farmers—conceptualises climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting
the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured
interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria and the
north-east of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need
for action, the role of local industry, who will ‘win’ and ‘lose’, and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular,
residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of ‘climate change’,
whereas those who were more sceptical termed it ‘weather variability’, suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia
that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities
in the twenty-first-century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies. 相似文献
4.
Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Schaap Ben F. Blom-Zandstra Margaretha Hermans Christiane M. L. Meerburg Bastiaan G. Verhagen Jan 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(3):731-741
Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case
study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities.
We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss
of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence
and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055);
the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented
in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions
that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the
region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important
threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the
level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such
as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused
mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield. 相似文献
5.
László Dióssy 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2009,11(6):1135-1144
Efficient protection against global climate change requires international emission reduction measures. Before these ones are
decided, the individual states should make arrangements within their own scope of authority for preventing and mitigating
the adverse impacts of climate change already in progress as a consequence of carbon dioxide emissions done so far. In spring
2008 Hungary—among the very first ones in the international stage—passed a middle-term National Climate Change Strategy, which
determines both the national tasks in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral tasks of the adaptation to the
ongoing climate change for the period of 2008–2025. As a concrete case study we investigated the possible impacts of the regional
change in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and precipitation conditions of the Carpathian Basin on the
cultivation conditions of maize, based on the downscaled IPCC 2007 scenarios. Temperatures of each scenarios increased significantly
to basic run (1961–1990). This change suppressed the positive influence of elevated CO2 on carbon assimilation. Serious depression may be waited during extreme hot days at Keszthely, Hungary. 相似文献
6.
Petra Lasch Chris Kollas Joachim Rock Felicitas Suckow 《Regional Environmental Change》2010,10(2):83-94
Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically
valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops:
the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields.
Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states
of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model
4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge,
on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced
growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions
of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha−1 a−1 under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha−1 a−1 at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha−1 a−1 under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha−1 a−1 under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts
on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations
are a suitable contribution to regional CO2 mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget
are possible. 相似文献
7.
D. González-Zeas S. Quiroga A. Iglesias L. Garrote 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(5):1983-1993
The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes. 相似文献
8.
Ana Rosa Moreno 《Regional Environmental Change》2006,6(3):157-164
Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if, as expected, global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat, lung and eyes, and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food production, freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range, seasonality, and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission, particularly among populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Niño conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases, such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton, which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts. 相似文献
9.
María E. Ibarrarán Elizabeth L. Malone Antoinette L. Brenkert 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2010,12(3):365-388
Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the
degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological
events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity toward new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current
resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent
studies (Moss et al. in Vulnerability to climate change: a quantitative approach. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington
DC, 2001; Brenkert and Malone in Clim Change 72:57–102, 2005; Malone and Brenkert in Clim Change 91:451–476, 2008), the Vulnerability–Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience
of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events
that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the
sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and
the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability
of human resources, economic capacity, and environmental capacity. This paper presents two sets of results. First, we show
the application of the VRIM to determine state-level resilience for Mexico, building the baseline that reflects the current
status. The second part of the paper makes projections of resilience under socioeconomic and climate change and examines the
varying sources and consequences of those changes. We used three tools to examine Mexico’s resilience in the face of climate
change, i.e., the baseline calculations regarding resilience indices made by the VRIM, the projected short-term rates of socioeconomic
change from the Boyd–Ibarrarán computable general equilibrium model, and rates of the IPCC-SRES scenario projections from
the integrated assessment MiniCAM model. This allows us to have available change rates for VRIM variables through the end
of the twenty-first century. 相似文献
10.
Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic,
thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was
investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already
published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records
from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future
(i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year
simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water
quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing
problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change.
Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and
management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches
that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending
on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality. 相似文献
11.
In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change
impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through
cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five
degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear
power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream
flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will
exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates
that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and
decreasing stream flow. 相似文献
12.
Robert Finger Anna Katarina Gilgen Ulrich E. Prechsl Nina Buchmann 《Regional Environmental Change》2013,13(2):365-374
This paper analyzes the economic impacts of summer drought on Swiss grassland production. We combine field trial data from drought experiments in three different grasslands in Switzerland with site-specific information on economic costs and benefits. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of drought effects on grassland yields as well as grassland composition. In agreement with earlier studies, we found rather heterogeneous yield effects of drought on Swiss grassland systems, with significantly reduced yields as a response to drought at the lowland and sub-alpine sites, but increased yields at the wetter pre-alpine site. Relative yield losses were highest at the sub-alpine site (with annual yield losses of up to 37 %). However, because income from grassland production at extensive sites relies to a large extent on ecological direct payments, even large yield losses had only limited implications in terms of relative profit reductions. In contrast, negative drought impacts at the most productive, intensively managed lowland site were dominant, with average annual drought-induced profit margin reductions of about 28 %. This is furthermore emphasized if analyzing the farm level perspective of drought impacts. Combining site-specific effects at the farm level, we found that in particular farms with high shares of lowland grassland sites suffer from summer droughts in terms of farm-level fodder production and profit margins. Moreover, our results showed that the higher competitiveness of weeds (broad-leaved dock) under drought conditions will require increasing attention on weed control measures in future grassland production systems. Taking into account that the risk of drought occurrence is expected to increase in the coming years, additional instruments to cope with drought risks in fodder production and finally farmers’ income have to be developed. 相似文献
13.
There are increasing attempts to define the measures of ‘dangerous anthropogenic inference with the climate system’ in context of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, due to its linkage to goals for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The criteria for identifying dangerous anthropogenic interference may be characterized in terms of the consequences of climate change. In this study, we use the water stress index (WSI) and agricultural net primary production (NPP) as indictors to assess where and when there might be dangerous effects arising from the projected climate changes for Chinese agricultural production. The results showed that based on HadCM3-based climate change scenarios, the region between the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain (34.25–47.75°N, 110.25–126.25°E) would be vulnerable to the projected climate change. The analyses on inter-annual variability showed that the agricultural water resources conditions would fluctuate through the period of 2001–2080 in the region under IPCC SRES A2 scenario, with the period of 2021–2040 as critical drought period. Agricultural NPP is projected to have a general increasing trend through the period of 2001–2080; however, it could decrease during the period of 2005–2035 in the region under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, and during the period of 2025–2035 under IPCC SRES B2 scenario. Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of global mean temperature increase, more works are needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China. Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies. 相似文献
14.
Birgit Schmook 《Regional Environmental Change》2010,10(3):233-246
Shifting cultivation around the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve of Mexico, part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, appears
to be intensifying temporally through reductions in crop–fallow cycles, with potential impacts on species diversity in the
regenerating forest patches surrounding the reserve. This paper documents the temporal intensity of shifting maize cultivation
in the region and links it to the species diversity found in secondary vegetation of different ages following different crop–fallow
cycles. It finds that younger secondary growth, which is increasing under intensification, has less diversity in species composition.
Simultaneously, the concentration of cultivation practices appears to foster more patches in older and more species-diverse
vegetation. The implications for the preservation of the region’s forest remain uncertain, however, given the spatial concentration
of open lands along two key axes, one which dissects the reserve. 相似文献
15.
Plantation forests not only impact carbon and water cycles, but also affect biodiversity, livelihoods, and shape regional
economies. Each of these impacts differs across varying scales of analysis. This paper illustrates how forest, climate change
and hydrology debates play out in the context of the forest plantations of Australian black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) in the upper Palni hills of southern India. We outline the contradictory perspectives of different local groups regarding
the impact of plantations on catchment hydrology and water availability, and examine these in relation to changes in the regional
economy and rainfall patterns. Our analysis indicates that changes in these two factors have played a more significant role
than existing wattle plantations in affecting local and regional water availability. We suggest that ongoing debates regarding
forest plantation–hydrology–climate change relationships need to broaden their scope to include changes in regional rainfall
patterns and shifts in regional economic activity. This approach is likely to provide a more realistic assessment of plantation
forests in a dynamic regional context, and offer more resilient strategies for regional landscape and catchment management
under conditions of high variability in rainfall patterns. 相似文献
16.
Aiding multi-level decision-making processes for climate change mitigation and adaptation 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Katherine A. Daniell María A. Máñez Costa Nils Ferrand Ashley B. Kingsborough Peter Coad Irina S. Ribarova 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):243-258
Progress towards climate change aware regional sustainable development is affected by actions at multiple spatial scales and
governance levels and equally impacts actions at these scales. Many authors and policy practitioners consider therefore that
decisions over policy, mitigation strategies and capacity for adaptation to climate change require construction and coordination
over multiple levels of governance to arrive at acceptable local, regional and global management strategies. However, how
such processes of coordination and decision-aiding can occur and be maintained and improved over time is a major challenge
in need of investigation. We take on this challenge by proposing research-supported methods of aiding multi-level decision-making
processes in this context. Four example regionally focussed multi-level case studies from diverse socio-political contexts
are outlined—estuarine management in Australia’s Lower Hawkesbury, flood and drought management in Bulgaria’s Upper Iskar
Basin, climate policy integration in Spain’s Comunidad Valenciana and food security in Bangladesh’s Faridpur District—from
which insights are drawn. Our discussion focuses on exploring these insights including: (1) the possible advantages of informal
research-supported processes and specifically those that provide individual arenas of participation for different levels of
stakeholders; (2) the complexity of organisation processes required for aiding multi-level decision-making processes; and
(3) to what extent progress towards integrated regional policies for climate change aware sustainable development can be achieved
through research-supported processes. We finish with a speculative section that provides ideas and directions for future research. 相似文献
17.
P. M. S. Jayathilaka Peeyush Soni Sylvain R. Perret H. P. W. Jayasuriya Vilas M. Salokhe 《Regional Environmental Change》2012,12(1):55-68
Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture
in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri
Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes
in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under
the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic
factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop
suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time
frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the
two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate
and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is
quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the
study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability
and management. 相似文献
18.
Kris A. G. Wyckhuys Robert J. O’Neil 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2010,12(3):297-311
In subsistence farming systems of the developing world, adoption of resource-conserving practices such as integrated pest
management (IPM) is often strikingly low. This has partially been ascribed to researchers’ limited understanding of how technologies
develop at the interface of the systems’ social and ecological components. In Honduras (Central America), there exists concern
about limited adoption and diffusion of IPM technologies in certain smallholder production systems. In this study, we determine
social and ecological drivers of IPM adoption in subsistence maize production in the country’s hillside environment. Honduran
small-scale maize production is typified by a key insect pest (the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda) being partly kept at bay through action of a diverse natural enemy complex, including ants, social wasps, carabid beetles,
and spiders. Local agricultural landscapes, primarily shaped through shifting cultivation, provide key resources to maintain
this natural enemy diversity. These local ecological conditions and related natural enemy abundance strongly influence farmers’
agroecological knowledge and pest management practices. In the meantime, farmer practices are also affected by local communication
networks, which help validate and spread IPM concepts and technologies. Based on our findings, we advocate a holistic approach
to improve IPM extension through mapping of agroecological opportunities, visualization of regional patterns in farmer knowledge,
and associated priority setting. Local IPM capacity could be built through institutional strengthening and adaptive comanagement,
while IPM training should be linked with natural resource management initiatives. These approaches may eventually improve
the way IPM is delivered to small-scale farmers who operate in the ecologically diverse environments of the tropics. 相似文献
19.
Ezatollah Karami Afsaneh Mansoorabadi 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(6):883-898
The purpose of this paper is to compare the attitudes of male and female rice growers towards environmental sustainability
and identify the constructs that will influence their attitudes and behaviors. A survey methodology with systematic sampling
techniques was used to select 181 households in four villages’ of Kazeroon, Iran. Results indicated that women farmers’ attitudes were more positive toward sustainability. A model was developed to
explain farmers’ attitudes and behavior toward environmental sustainability. Finally, the determinants of sustainable agriculture
attitudes and behavior are discussed.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. 相似文献
20.
The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts.
Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow
stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario
of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth.
The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve
as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but
the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation
costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain.
Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999 相似文献