A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

WATERSHED MODELS AND THEIR APPLICABILITY TO CONJUNCTIVE USE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Techniques employed to simulate infiltration and subsurface ground-water flow were examined for a number of available watershed models. The large number of processes that these models simulate prohibits detailed analysis of subsurface flow, due to excessive computer and data requirements. Such models emphasize surface flow and include only that portion of water lost to the subsurface and the portion returned to the stream as baseflow. Problems were examined in adopting conjunctive use models, which allow the coordinated exploitation and management of both surface and ground-water resources. The application of conjunctive use models in water resources management is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade.     

WATER USE REDUCTIONS FROM RETROFIHNG INDOOR WATER FIXTURES1

ABSTRACT: A water use model was developed to estimate water savings from installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices in residential housing. The model measures household water use in per capita terms with adjustments for age of occupants, household income, if occupants responsible for direct payment of water bill, and type of water fixtures. Detailed data on 308 single family residences involved with a pilot retrofit program in the Seattle, Washington, area were analyzed. We estimated per capita indoor water use to decline by 6.4 and 2.1 percent from complete installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices, respectively.     

MUNICIPAL UTILIZATION OF WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT: THE ONTARIO EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Managing the demand for municipal water supply has become a viable alternative or supplement to traditional supply management responses. Though senior governments in Canada are committed to the concept, there is a lack of knowledge concerning the level of use of the demand management concept and little promotion of water conservation. This paper assesses the extent of the use of this concept as it applies to municipal water supply across southern Ontario and examines factors that influence the variation in use of water conservation strategies. Information from 219 municipalities revealed that the concept is not in wide use in southern Ontario and that existing variation can be partially explained by the extent of problems experienced and the population size served by the municipal water supply system. Suggestions for increasing municipal use of the demand management concept are offered.     

INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF WATER USE RESTRICTIONS,AUSTIN, TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Mandatory water conservation in the form of restrictions on outdoor watering, car washing, and recreation was implemented in the City of Austin, Texas, during the summers of 1984 and 1985. Three different stages of restrictions were implemented limiting the number of watering hours per day, as well as a restriction that allowed lawn watering once every five days according to the last digit of the street address, Intervention analysis using a transfer function-noise model of daily water use is applied to assess the impact of the restrictions. Compared to a peak water use rate of about 170 MGD, it is shown that mandatory restrictions in 1984 reduced water use by an average of 13.5 MGD, while similar restrictions during the summer of 1985 reduced usage by an average of 5.5 MGD. Lawn watering restrictions on a five-day cycle produced a corresponding five-day cycle in water use of more than 10 MGD in amplitude in 1985. An alternative lawn watering scheme that eliminates this cycle is prescribed.     

A QUARTER CENTURY OF INDUSTRIAL WATER USE AND A DECADE OF DISCHARGE CONTROLS1

This paper explores the trends in industrial water intake, discharge, recycling, and gross water use to see whether or not the 1972 Clean Water Act (CWA) has had an impact on industrial effluent discharge. Quinquennial Census data indicate that the levels of discharge, both generally and per unit of product, have been falling for as long as these data have been gathered. Trends in gross water use and recycling ratios suggest that during the 25 years of record production processes were gradually modified so that less total water was discharged and less was used per unit of output. Untreated discharge as a percent of all discharge fell fairly steadily across all industries until 1973 and continued to fall in 1978 in the major BOD-discharging industries. By 1978, 75 percent of the pulp and paper effluent and 40 percent of the food processing effluent was treated. The consistent increase in treated discharge in the pulp and paper mills, with their large component of BOD-related process discharge, was not matched by parallel trends in the steel, petroleum, and chemicals industries with their relatively smaller amounts (and percents) of process discharge. This suggests that the CWA may have been responsible in part for the change in the former. In the pulp and paper industry, there is further evidence that the CWA has influenced wastewater discharge. Although, for the century as a whole, pulp and paper mills discharged less water, and more discharge was treated, in 1978 than in 1973, these trends were especially dramatic among firms in the Northeast where controls were likely to have been most stringent. Finally, using the only direct evidence we have, it appears that the drop in discharge levels and the increasing amounts of treatment had a significant effect on the amount of BOD discharged to surface and ground water. In 1973 the pulp and paper mills in Wisconsin discharged an average of about 868,000 lbs/day; by 1982, despite increased levels of production, they discharged less than 10 percent of that. There is no doubt that industrial water use changed over the 25 years of record. Although the evidence is circumstantial, it appears that the CWA and the environmental ethic which spawned it played an important part in some aspects of the shifts.     

A COMPARISON OF MULTIVARIATE AND TREND FORECASTING ESTIMATES WITH ACTUAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a multivariate water forecasting procedure that is neither complicated, time-consuming nor expensive to operationalize. The forecasting procedure has been used to estimate the water demand for a proposed subdivision in Barrie, Ontario. Reliability is checked by applying the procedure to two existing subdivisions in Barrie for which metered consumption is available. For comparison, a trend forecasting procedure is also applied to the proposed subdivision and the existing subdivisions. Both the multivariate and trend forecasting procedures provide encouragingly accurate results when compared to actual use. While the multivariate procedure allows more precision, both procedures should be useful in forecasting water demand for smaller municipalities.     

USE OF MICROCOMPUTERS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF WATER QUALITY DATA1

ABSTRACT: Information on raw water quality, treatment process removal efficiency, and distribution system monitoring is essential to the proper management and operation of a water utility system. Microcomputer hardware and software systems using commercially available data base management systems (DBMS) have emerged within the last few years as an effective means of managing, analyzing, and displaying water quality data. Understanding hardware, software, and training requirements is essential to the proper use of these systems. Three types of data base design are common: relational, hierarchical, and network. Only the relational type of data base architecture is widely implemented on microcomputer DBMS. In this paper two examples of the application of DBMS to water utility problems are presented. One example deals with collection and analysis of data concerning the water quality of the Mississippi River. The second example deals with the DBMS as a means of analyzing water quality data in the North Penn Water Authority (NPWA) distribution system.     

THE ACCURACY OF WATER USE FORECASTS: EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of 1980 river basin water use presented in the reports of the 1960 Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources and in the Water Resources Council's First National Water Assessment of 1968 were compared to estimates of actual use in 1980 to assess the accuracy of efforts to forecast future water use. Results show that the majority of the forecasts were substantially in error. In general, the First National Assessment forecasts erred by a smaller margin, but tended to repeat the regional patterns of overestimation (underestimation) exhibited in the Senate Select Committee forecasts. Moreover, forecasts of the two groups that came within 20 percent of the 1980 withdrawals, in general were accurate, not because of superior prediction, but because of offsetting errors in forecast components. This performance leads us to conclude that water use forecasts, regardless of the time-frame or the forecast method employed, are likely to always be highly inaccurate. Accordingly, if such forecasting efforts are to be of value in contemporary water resources planning, forecasters should direct their attention toward methods which will illuminate the determinants of the demand for water.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

NONPRICE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS AS A DEMAND MANAGEMENT TOOL1

ABSTRACT: Water providers nationwide are implementing nonprice conservation measures such as education, public information, appliance retrofit and ordinances, with the expectation that these programs will reduce residential water demand. However, little empirical information exists on the effectiveness of nonprice conservation programs in reducing water demand. Previous econometric studies indicate these programs have had minimal impact. We examine the types and number of major nonprice conservation programs that have been implemented during an 11-year period in seven cities in the southwestern United States. A cross sectional, monthly time series residential water demand model, with parameters to control for variation in prices, temperature, precipitation and other factors, was used to empirically investigate the effectiveness of nonprice conservation programs in reducing water demand. We found significant reductions in use ranging between 1.1 percent and 4.0 percent per program. Because of the lack of information, we were unable to distinguish the effectiveness of individual or specific types of programs. Beyond finding that nonprice programs can be effective in reducing demand, questions regarding the efficiency and benefits to be achieved by conservation remain. As a step towards separating and evaluating the effects of individual programs, program benefits and efficiency, we recommend that utilities maintain more detailed and consistent information regarding the implementation of their nonprice programs.     

LAND USE FUNCTION IN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT. The Nation has entered a new era of water quality management in which land use policy and regulation must assume an increasingly important role. The benefits of tertiary and advanced waste treatment may be offset by contradictory land use and pollution from land runoff. Unless land use planning and controls are included in water quality management, land-imposed constraints on water quality can be anticipated. Pollution from major types of land runoff are reviewed with respect to sources, effects, and control procedures. Emphasis is given to land use practices and controls. The crucial issue with regard to the latter is lack of land use policies at federal, state, and local levels. State legislation establishing guidelines and minimum standards for land use regulation by local government is required. The dependency of water quality on land use points to the fallacy of attempting to provide for comprehensive water pollution control outside the context of comprehensive land-water resource planning and management.     

RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.     

INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND WITH WATER REUSE1

ABSTRACT: This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 1C firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.     

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS AS A TOOL IN WATER USE DATA MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The temporal and locational attributes of water use data are ideally suited for analysis using a geographic information system (GIS) approach. A GIS combines spatial database management, statistical analysis, and cartographic modelling capabilities within a computer hardware and software configuration. Texas water use data for selected categories in 1980 and 1986 were analyzed using ARC/INFO to demonstrate the utility of GIS for water resource information management. Examples of data analysis and display are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of cartographic representations to communicate water use data.     

FORECASTING URBAN WATER USE: THE IWR-MAIN MODEL1

ABSTRACT: In the current forecasting practice, future water requirements of a growing urban area are often represented as the product of the number of people to be served by the water system and an assumed quantity of gross per capita water use. This paper describes a forecasting approach that differs from the per capita method in two important aspects. First, it disaggregates urban water use into a large number of categories, each consisting of a relatively homogeneous group of water users. Second, it links water use in each category to factors that determine both the need for water as well as the intensity of water use. This approach is incorporated into a computerized forecasting system referred to as IWR-MAIN. The advantages of the IWR.MAIN model over the traditional per capita method are illustrated in a case study of Anaheim, California.     

POTENTIAL WATER USE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PATTERNS UNDER ALTERNATIVE WATER PRICES1

Out study deals with the demand for water and alternative agricultural production and land use patterns under varying prices for both surface and ground water. We derive irrigation water demands for both the United States and regions of it. Not only is a different amount of water used at each set of water prices but also a different mix of crops, livestock, and production technology develops among the different regions. Under the highest set of prices used, more than fourteen million acres are converted into dryland farming. Total irrigated water use decreases by more than 25 million acre-feet. Irrigated crop yields are reduced and cropping patterns shift away from irrigation. Commodity shadow prices increase as much as 15 percent under high prices for both surface and ground water. A redistribution of farm income occurs between irrigated and dryland regions.     

WATER REDUCTIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL AUDITS1

ABSTRACT: The water reductions resulting from Contra Costa Water District's 1989 residential audit program are measured using a multivariate regression model. The model explains metered residential water use as a function of both conservation and other household variables. The principle conclusions drawn are that (1) installation of low-flow showerheads reduced indoor water use by 9.7 percent or 7.8 gallons per capita day, (2) the outdoor segment of the audit reduced irrigation needs by 18.7 percent, and (3) irrigation timers are being used inefficiently.     

EFFECT OF PRICE STRUCTURE ON RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND1

ABSTRACT: Little is known about how different types of municipal water rate structures influence residential water use. Conventional wisdom suggests that increasing block rate structures promote conservation, but analysis of data from 85 Massachusetts communities does not support this view.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF WASTE MINIMIZATION PROJECTS IN REDUCING WATER DEMAND BY UK INDUSTRY1

ABSTRACT: There is growing interest in managing water demand in the UK. A series of waste minimization clubs have been set up within the country and this paper identifies the effectiveness of these clubs in reducing the demand for water within industry. Membership of these clubs is voluntary and the only incentive for industry to reduce water consumption, and consequently the production of effluent, is the almost immediate financial saving made by the company, often achieved by accounting for the water consumption and loss within site from the point of input from the water supplier to output in the form of effluent. On average, companies are able to reduce water consumption by up to 30 percent. If the entire industrial sector within the UK were to achieve this degree of savings, it is possible that approximately 1300Ml/d could be saved.