THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

MANAGING THE COLORADO RIVER IN A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the findings and recommendations of the studies of severe, sustained drought reported in this special issue. The management facilities and institutions were found to be effective in protecting consumptive water users against drought, but much less effective in protecting nonconsumptive uses. Changes in intrastate water management were found to be effective in reducing the monetary value of damages, through reallocating shortages to low-valued uses, while only water banking and water marketing, among the possible interstate rule changes, were similarly effective. Players representing the basin states and the federal government in three gaming experiments were unable to agree upon and effect major changes in operating rules. The conclusions are (1) that nonconsumptive water uses are highly vulnerable to drought, (2) that consumptive uses are well-protected, (3) that drought risk is greatest in the Upper Basin, (4) that the Lower Basin suffers from chronic water shortage but bears little drought risk, (5) that opportunities exist for win-win rule changes, (6) that such rule changes are extremely difficult to make, and (7) that intrastate drought management is very effective ^m in reducing potential damages.     

COMPETING WATER USES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES: VALUING DROUGHT DAMAGES1

ABSTRACT: Economic benefit functions of water resource use are estimated for all major offstream and instream uses of Colorado River water. Specific benefit estimates are developed for numerous agricultural regions, for municipal uses, and for cooling water in thermal energy generation. Economic benefits of hydropower generation are given, as are those for recreation on Colorado River reservoirs and on one free-flowing reach. Marginal and total benefit estimates for Colorado River water use are provided. The estimates presented here represent a synthesis of previous work, providing in total a comprehensive set of economic demand functions for competing uses of Colorado River water. Non-use values (e.g., benefits of preserving endangered species) are not estimated.     

COPING WITH A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON THE COLORADO RWER: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT: In arid regions of rapid economic and population growth, adverse effects of droughts are likely to be increasingly serious. This article presents an introduction and overview of the papers collected in this special issue of the Water Resources Bulletin. The papers report on the second phase of a study of the impacts of and responses to a potential severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern U.S. The analyses were performed by a consortium of researchers from universities and the private sector located throughout the Basin. Tree ring studies suggest that droughts of duration and magnitude much more serious than any found in the modern records probably occurred in the Basin during earlier centuries. Taking the present-day configuration of the storage and diversion structures and the economic conditions in the Basin as the base-point, the general objectives of the study are three: first, to define a representative Severe Sustained Drought (SSD) and assess its hydrologic impacts; second, to forecast the economic, social and environmental impacts on the southwestern U.S.; and finally, to assess alternative institutional arrangements for coping with an SSD. The evaluation of impacts and policies was conducted with two distinct modeling approaches. One involved hydrologic-economic optimization modeling where water allocation institutions are decision variables. The second was a simulation-gaming approach which allowed “players” representing each basin state to interact in a real-time decision making mode in response to the unfolding drought.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation criteria for reservoir and stream resources were developed to provide decision makers with feedback on environmental consequences of water allocation decisions under conditions of severe sustained drought within the Colorado River Basin by using the AZCOL gaming simulation model. Seven categories of flow dependent resources were identified which highlight resource states associated with reservoirs or river reaches within the AZCOL model. AZCOL directly simulates impact of water management decisions on five resource categories: threatened, endangered or sensitive fish; native nonlisted fish; wetland and riparian elements; national or state wildlife refuges; and hatcheries or other flow dependent facilities. Two additional categories - cold and warm water sport fish - are not modeled explicitly but are incorporated in the evaluation of monetary benefits from recreation on Colorado River waters. Each resource category was characterized at each time step in the simulation according to one of four environmental states: stable, threatened, endangered, or extirpated. Changes in resource states were modeled by time and flow-dependent decision criteria tied to either reservoir level or stream flows within the AZCOL model structure. Gaming results using the AZCOL model indicate environmental impacts would be substantial and that water allocation decisions directly impacted environmental resource states.     

GENERATED MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS FOR THE MIDWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT A critical examination of single gage site, monthly streamflow statistical characteristics for two southern Illinois rivers, an Oklahoma river and a Texas river was made using a digital computer at Northwestern University. High flow variability for the rivers was evident in that, for the rivers tested, 8 to 11 months had coefficients of variation in excess of unity. The gamma distribution was not as efficient as the normal distribution for fitting power or logarithmic transforms of the historical monthly flow data (i.e., F^1-0, F^0-5, F^0-25, Fa¹²⁵, F^0.085, and log F). No single transform to a normal distribution was adequate for all twelve monthly flows, since definite seasonal grouping patterns were found for the four rivers examined. The highly variable flow in the low-flow season(s) indicated much more skewness than was typical of the remainder of the year. For the low-flow seasons, the higher-root (smaller exponent) transforms were particularly useful. Flows were generated from a linear regression model of lag one utilizing two or more transforms for the twelve periods. The definite seasonal patterns found historically were reproduced quite well in the generated streamflows. The effect of a change in data transform from one season to the next was insignificant after one month. Thus the use of different transforms within the year did not bias the results from the linear regression model appreciably, but did help in reproducing the seasonal distribution pattern. The technique seems especially well suited for rivers with highly variable flows.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.     

THE LAW OF THE COLORADO RIVER: COPING WITH SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: The waters of the Colorado River are divided among seven states according to a complex ‘Law of the River’ drawn from interstate compacts, international treaties, statutes, and regulations. The Law of the River creates certain priorities among the states and the Republic of Mexico, and in the event of a severe sustained drought, the Law of the River dictates the distribution of water and operation of the elaborate reservoir system. Earlier work indicated that there is remarkable resilience in the system for established uses of water in the Lower Basin of the Colorado River. This work shows, based on an application of the Law of the River using computer modeling of operations of facilities on the Colorado River, that there may be serious environmental consequences and related legal restraints on how the water is used in times of shortage and that the existing legal and institutional framework governing the Colorado River does not adequately address all the issues that would be raised in a severe sustained drought. Several possible legal options for dealing with drought in the context of the Law of the River are identified.     

AN ORGANIZED SIGNAL IN SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Daily‐to‐weekly discharge during the snowmelt season is highly correlated among river basins in the upper elevations of the central and southern Sierra Nevada (Carson, Walker, Tuolumne, Merced, San Joaquin, Kings, and Kern Rivers). In many cases, the upper Sierra Nevada watershed operates in a single mode (with varying catchment amplitudes). In some years, with appropriate lags, this mode extends to distant mountains. A reason for this coherence is the broad scale nature of synoptic features in atmospheric circulation, which provide anomalous insolation and temperature forcing that span a large region, sometimes the entire western U.S. These correlations may fall off dramatically, however, in dry years when the snowpack is spatially patchy.     

ESTIMATING AVERAGE MONTHLY LAKE EVAPORATION IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A methodology to estimate the average monthly lake evaporation, E(τ), (month τ=1,12) for fresh water bodies located in the northeast United States is presented. The approach combines analysis of at‐site, lake‐specific vertical water temperature profile data and a previously developed regional air temperature based model approximation of the widely accepted modified Penman energy budget estimate of mean monthly potential evaporation, E_p(τ) (mm/day). The paper presents procedures to develop site‐specific estimates of E_p(τ) and to convert water temperature data to average monthly conductive heat flux, G(τ). With monthly estimates of G(τ), the average monthly potential evaporation, E_p(τ), is then convertible to estimates of the average monthly lake evaporation, E(τ). This new method permits a good estimate of site‐specific lake evaporation rates without the data and computational requirements of the Penman energy budget procedure nor the comparatively expensive, time consuming field eddy correlation approach.     

IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of a severe sustained drought on Colorado River system water resources were investigated by simulating the physical and institutional constraints within the Colorado River Basin and testing the response of the system to different hydrologic scenarios. Simulations using Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model compared a 38-year severe sustained drought derived from 500 years of reconstructed streamflows for the Colorado River basin with a 38-year streamflow trace extracted from the recent historic record. The impacts of the severe drought on streamflows, water allocation, storage, hydropower generation, and salinity were assessed. Estimated deliveries to consumptive uses in the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, and northern Arizona were heavily affected by the severe drought, while the Lower Basin states of California, Nevada, and Arizona suffered only slight shortages. Upper Basin reservoirs and streamflows were also more heavily affected than those in the Lower Basin by the severe drought. System-wide, total hydropower generation was 84 percent less in the drought scenario than in the historical stream-flow scenario. Annual, flow-weighted salinity below Lake Mead exceeded 1200 ppm for six years during the deepest portion of the severe drought. The salinity levels in the historical hydrology scenario never exceeded 1100 ppm.     

A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

THE CONCEPT OF HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic landscapes are multiples or variations of fundamental hydrologic landscape units. A fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is defined on the basis of land‐surface form, geology, and climate. The basic land‐surface form of a fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is an upland separated from a lowland by an intervening steeper slope. Fundamental hydrologic landscape units have a complete hydrologic system consisting of surface runoff, ground‐water flow, and interaction with atmospheric water. By describing actual landscapes in terms of land‐surface slope, hydraulic properties of soils and geologic framework, and the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, the hydrologic system of actual landscapes can be conceptualized in a uniform way. This conceptual framework can then be the foundation for design of studies and data networks, syntheses of information on local to national scales, and comparison of process research across small study units in a variety of settings. The Crow Wing River watershed in central Minnesota is used as an example of evaluating stream discharge in the context of hydrologic landscapes. Lake‐research watersheds in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Nebraska are used as an example of using the hydrologic‐land‐scapes concept to evaluate the effect of ground water on the degree of mineralization and major‐ion chemistry of lakes that lie within ground‐water flow systems.     

HYDROLOGIC BUDGET FOR A FRESHWATER MARSH IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Accurate water balance calculations are essential for water resource and environmental management decisions, but many of the terms used in the equation are difficult to measure. In this study, a method for measuring rates of evapotranspiration and net seepage from a freshwater marsh in southwest Florida is described. The results are compared to evaporation pan estimates as well as to calculations that balanced all the terms in the hydrologic budget. The measured rates of evapotranspiration showed a. distinct seasonal trend ranging from an average high of 0.24 in/d during July 1992 to a low of 0.06 in/d in January 1993. Evapotranspiration rates were higher than Class A evaporation pan measurements during July and August, indicating transpiration by plants exceeded evaporation by pans. Net ground water seepage flowed out of the marsh except during periods of high water table conditions. When all terms in the hydrologic budget were evaluated, the equation balanced on a yearly basis with an error of 2 percent, on a seasonal basis with errors less than 7 percent, but on a monthly basis errors were as great as 30 percent. Total annual rainfall on the marsh was 45 percent of the total marsh hydrologic input and was approximately equal to the loss by evapotranspiration of 41 percent.     

NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FOREST STREAMS OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Seventy to eighty percent of the water flowing in rivers in the United States originates as precipitation in forests. This project developed a synoptic picture of the patterns in water chemistry for over 300 streams in small, forested watersheds across the United States. Nitrate (NO₃^?) concentrations averaged 0.31 mg N/L, with some streams averaging ten times this level. Nitrate concentrations tended to be higher in the northeastern United States in watersheds dominated by hardwood forests (especially hardwoods other than oaks) and in recently harvested watersheds. Concentrations of dissolved organic N (mean 0.32 mg N/L) were similar to those of NO₃～, whereas ammonium (NH₄⁺) concentrations were much lower (mean 0.05 mg N/L). Nitrate dominated the N loads of streams draining hardwood forests, whereas dissolved organic N dominated the streams in coniferous forests. Concentrations of inorganic phosphate were typically much lower (mean 12 mg P/L) than dissolved organic phosphate (mean 84 mg P/L). The frequencies of chemical concentrations in streams in small, forested watersheds showed more streams with higher NO₃^? concentrations than the streams used in national monitoring programs of larger, mostly forested watersheds. At a local scale, no trend in nitrate concentration with stream order or basin size was consistent across studies.     

GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water resources is becoming an increasingly important issue in the southeastern U.S. The potential impacts of future precipitation and runoff estimated by a transient global climate model (HADCM2) on competing water resources in the Southeast has been conducted. Issues of agricultural management, irrigation water withdrawals, and water quality were studied over three time periods: 1974–1993, 2020–2039, and 2080–2099 in five water basins identified previously as exhibiting water-related problems. These basins, which encompass the boundary between Alabama and Mississippi, cover four important agricultural counties in Mississippi. Irrigation water requirements generated by crop growth models for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were coupled with monthly runoff for the impacted basins estimated by the SWAT water balance model. The results of the study reveal that in the next 20–40 years water availability in the southern portions of the study area will decline as much as 10 percent during times when water requirements for agricultural production are crucial. Maintaining or expanding existing crop yields under future climate regimes may require additional irrigation water and increase competition among other uses such as domestic, industrial, recreational, and ecosystem quality.