Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

The role of the individual administrator in famine relief: Three case studies

A series of hypotheses on the role of the individual administrator in famine relief are proposed and three are examined with respect to case studies of famines in India (1896 and 1906–1907), Uganda (1908) and Lombok (1940). While the evidence is not conclusive, the focus upon the role of the individual administrator offers additional insights into the compexities of official response to famines.     

Impact of a commercial destocking relief intervention in Moyale district, southern Ethiopia

A commercial destocking intervention was piloted in southern Ethiopia during the drought of early 2006. The intervention led to the purchase of an estimated 20,000 cattle valued at USD 1.01 million. On average, destocked households received USD 186 from the sale of cattle--approximately 5,405 households were involved. In terms of aid investment, the approximate cost-benefit ratio was 41:1. During the drought, income from destocking accounted for 54.2 per cent of household income (n = 114 households), and was used to buy food, care for livestock, meet various domestic expenses, support relatives, and either pay off debts or augment savings. Seventy-nine per cent of the income derived from destocking was used to buy local goods or services. Expenditure on livestock care amounted to 36.5 per cent of local spending, and included the private transportation of livestock to better grazing areas. The buoyant livestock export trade was considered to be an important driver of commercial destocking, demonstrating a positive link between livestock and meat exports, and pastoral vulnerability during drought.     

Operational value of anthropometric surveillance in famine early warning and relief: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in 'Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88' (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost-effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.     

Archetypes of famine and response

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations—watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks—that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.     

The underutilization of street markets as a source of food security indicators in famine early warning systems: a case study of Ethiopia

Famine Early Warning Systems (EWS) are reliant on data aggregated from multiple sources. Consequently, they are often insensitive to localized changes in food security status, leading to delayed response or interventions. While price and infrastructural data are often gathered, this case study suggests that local street markets and vendor knowledge are underutilized. Few efforts have been made to monitor systematically the street markets as an indicator of local stressors. Findings from Ethiopia show that knowledge generated by expanding food security indicators in this sector can be used in combination with EWS to facilitate earlier intervention in, or to monitor more effectively, on-going humanitarian crises. Indicators developed from this study are accurate, cost effective, and sensitive to local climatic and food stressors.     

Composite indicators for famine early warning systems

Traditional famine early warning systems use a host of indicators to predict food crisis situations, from rainfall and increased rate of marketing of household durables to the behavior of birds and animals. Although many of these indicators are valid in general, limited understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the distress signals makes food crisis prediction a highly subjective exercise. In order to make the system more effective and credible, we need to identify a limited number of 'composite' indicators, which naturally summarize most relevant food-related information contained in the specific predictors of food crisis. Considering the chronology of the food production and consumption chain, three composite indicators specific to three different stages of the chain have been identified. The satellite data based Normalized Deviation of Vegetative Index (NDVI), prices of major food grains, and malnutrition rates are found to be correlated not only with the quality and quantity of inputs of this process but also with the final outcome. Both NDVI and price data are widely used as important predictors of food crisis by famine warning systems. What we have demonstrated is that improved sensitivity of the indicators is likely to be due to their inherent capability of summarizing information from various specific measures. Child malnutrition rates also summarize inputs and outputs of the food consumption process very effectively, and therefore should be able to predict community level food crisis in an efficient manner. The empirical results confirm this conjecture by showing that malnutrition rates can predict food crisis probability three months into the future with a high degree of specificity. The use of 'composite' indicators not only simplifies the problem of aggregation, but is also likely to yield forecasts that are highly specific and sensitive.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

我国旱灾形势和减轻旱灾风险的主要对策

论述了干旱对我国经济社会影响。从干旱时空分布格局分析了我国面l临的旱灾风险形势,干旱灾害对我国造成的主要危害,以及干旱灾害的主要原因,在此基础上,从宏观战略角度,提出了减轻旱灾风险的主要对策。     

Structural Adjustment and Drought in Zambia

While drought is not uncommon in Zambia, the country is now facing the worst drought in history. The monetary and social costs will be enormous. Although it is too early to measure the economic and social costs of the drought on Zambia, it is obvious that the impact is catastrophic on a country whose economy is under pressure. The drought will affect the structural adjustment programme (SAP) unveiled by the new government which has embraced the market economy. The country has imported, and will continue to import, large quantities of maize and other foodstuffs, a situation likely to strain the balance of payments. Earlier targets with regard to export earnings, reductions in the budget deficit, and GDP growth as contained in the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) are no longer attainable due to the effects of the drought.     

干旱指标及其在新疆阿勒泰地区干旱监测分析中的应用

干旱是限制新疆阿勒泰地区农牧业生产可持续发展最主要的自然灾害之一,研究适合该区的干旱指标,是进行有效干旱监测的基础。采用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961-2008年4-10月月平均气温、降水量资料,首先通过Thomthwaite方法计算潜在蒸发量确定K干旱指数,然后对R指数、Z指数、K指数3种干旱指标进行了分析,结果表明,在监测诊断干旱轻重程度上,K指数能较客观地反映出干旱程度,R指数和Z指数监测干旱程度较轻。在此基础上,基于K指数建立的阿勒泰地区干旱监测评价的强度指数和面积指数,对该地区近48年来干旱的变化进行了分析,表明该地区干旱灾害主要集中在春夏季节,春夏连旱几率较高,强度较大;该地区干旱灾害具有阶段性特征,近年来干旱发生的频次有增多的趋势,其中秋季干旱相对较为明显。     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.