Agricultural adaptation of climate change in China.

This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

全球季风动力学与气候变化

本文结合现代季风和古季风研究成果对全球季风进行了一个全面回顾,并引入了一个全球季风的新定义,该定义考虑了三维分布、终极成因,强调了季节性气压梯度变化对季风环流的影响,并同时使用了环流与降水来描述季风强度。我们在从构造到季节内的宽广时间尺度上来考察全球季风气候变化。全球季风的性质包括全球不均一性、区域差异性、季节性、准周期性、不规则性、不稳定性和穿时性。对全球季风动力学来说,太阳辐射、地球轨道参数、下垫面性质和海-陆-气相互作用十分重要。本文还讨论了季风变率在不同时间尺度上的主要驱动因子以及多时间尺度之间的动力学关系。自然过程与人类活动影响对我们理解未来全球季风行为都非常重要。     

气候变化的历史责任与碳排放限额分配

对主要国家、九大区域及附件Ｉ国家与非附件Ｉ国家两大集团的二氧化碳历史累积排放量进行了估算,对目前主要的碳排放限额分配方法与原则进行了评述,指出人均原则是应坚持的分配原则。针对以当年还是以1990年为人口基年以及考虑历史责任与否提出了4种人均碳排放限额分配模式,并用其计算了全球九大区域以及中国的2050年碳排放限额。结果表明,考虑历史责任与否对碳排放限额分配结果的影响相当大,而且只有采用考虑历史责任并以1990年为人口基年这一人均分配模式,中国2050年的碳排放限额才可能高于其预测排放量     

Desertification,and climate change: the case for greater convergence

Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.     

Long-term,consistent scenarios of emissions,deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH₃ emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO₂ emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.     

Bamboo in climate change and rural livelihoods

Climate change negotiations, assessments, and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines have all but bypassed bamboo. Disallowing stands of tree-like bamboos as forests disparages their function in the carbon (C) cycle, and disregards pillars of smallholder livelihoods. Exposing bamboo not as a panacea, but as an overlooked option for C conservation, sequestration, and adaptation, we screen details of distribution, morphology, growth, physiology, and impacts for pertinence to climate change. Additional to 40 million hectares of existing bamboo forests, many potential host countries for C projects harbor suitable sites. Definitions, methods and default values, such as the root/shoot- ratio, biomass conversion factors, allometric equations and sampling variables need adjusting. Rapid maturation, persistent rhizomes, a rich palette of species, and wind-firmness may mitigate risk. Bamboos can accommodate agro-and urban forestry, and reign in unsustainable shifting cultivation. Distribution functions of bamboo biomass stocks and growths do not deviate drastically from those of trees. If anything, bamboo stocks are slightly lower, and growths slightly higher, with medians of 87 t*ha⁻¹ and 10.5 t*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, respectively. However, bamboo’s outstanding socio-economic effects might well determine its future in mitigation and adaptation. Early, continuous yields, selective harvesting on even small parcels of land, low capital and high labor intensity, virtually 100% conversion efficiency to about 1,500 products, and, typically, 75% of economic returns benefiting rural people are advantageous attributes. Regional studies on suitability, silviculture, yields, economics, risk, and C assessment would strengthen bamboo’s function as ‘the poor man’s timber’ and promote its niche as the smallholder’s C sink.     

能源与气候变化挑战——荷兰皇家壳牌集团的探索

能源挑战 我们知道,为了避免气候变化带来最恶劣的影响,人类必须在2050年以前实现全球二氧化碳排放量减半.然而,应对气候变化的措施必须同时兼顾人口增长、经济发展和能源需求迅猛增长等因素.从2000年到2050年,随着全球人口从70亿增长到90亿,加上非经合组织国家的经济持续高速发展,全球能源需求可能会翻一番. 我们面临着前所未有的能源和气候变化挑战.即使全球采取强有力的措施来提高能效,我们预计到2050年以前,全球还是会出现一个巨大的能源缺口,其规模大概相当于2000年全球能源行业的总产量.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.