The limits to risk aversion: Part 1. The point of indiscriminate decision

The paper uses utility theory to investigate how much should be spent to avert all costs from an industrial accident apart from direct human harm. These “environmental costs” will include those of evacuation, clean-up and business disruption. Assuming the organisation responsible will need to pay such costs, the difference between its expected utility with and without an environmental protection system constitutes a rational decision variable for whether or not the scheme should be installed. The value of utility is dependent on the coefficient of relative risk aversion, “risk-aversion” for short. A model of an organisation's decision-making process has been developed using the ABCD model, linking the organisation's assets, A, the cost of the protection scheme, B, the cost of consequences, C, and the expected utility difference with and without the scheme, D. Increasing the organisation's risk-aversion parameter will tend to make it less reluctant to invest in a protection system, but can bring about such investment only when the scheme is relatively close to financial break-even. For such borderline schemes, the amount the organisation is prepared to spend on the protection system will rise as the risk-aversion increases. The ratio of this sum to the break-even cost is named the “Limiting Risk Multiplier”, the maximum value of which is governed by the maximum feasible value of risk-aversion. However, the mathematical model shows that increasing the risk-aversion will reduce the clarity of decision making generally. Although the reluctance to invest in a protection scheme may change sign and turn into a positive desire to invest as the risk-aversion increases, the absolute value of this parameter is a continuously decreasing function of risk-aversion, tending asymptotically to zero. As a result, discrimination will gradually diminish, being lost altogether at the “point of indiscriminate decision”. Here the decision maker will be able to distinguish neither advantage in installing the scheme nor disadvantage in installing its inverse. There is a close correspondence between this mathematically predicted state and that of panic, where an individual has become so fearful that his actions become random. The point of indiscriminate decision provides a natural upper bound for the value of risk-aversion. This bounds the Limiting Risk Multiplier in turn, and so sets an objective upper limit on the amount that it is rational to spend on an environmental protection system.     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 2: The permission point and worked examples

Part 2 extends the analysis to show that it is possible to find the “permission point”, the value of (the coefficient of relative) risk-aversion, at which decisions to sanction environmental protection are most likely to be made. The mathematical model describes the process by which the decision maker varies his risk-aversion over a range of feasible values to find the risk-aversion that will give him the greatest desire to invest in the protection system under consideration. If he can find such a risk-aversion before losing discrimination (because the system is too expensive, given its performance), he will adopt it as his “permission point” and decide in favour of the expenditure. The permission point is, of course, bounded above by the point of indiscriminate decision. A maximum Risk Multiplier calculated at the point of indiscriminate decision may be applied to the protection expenditure at monetary break-even to give the maximum, rational outlay on protection. Moreover, it is possible to model how the average UK adult should take decisions on protection to maximise his utility. Different situations will call for different values of risk-aversion, which may explain why economists have come up with differing estimates of this parameter in the past. However, a central, average risk-aversion may be calculated for the average UK adult as 0.85, which is within 4% of the value, 0.82, found from the newly reported method based on a trade-off between income and future free time, and is consistent with several recent economic estimates. Worked examples assess how much an organisation should spend on a protection scheme to prevent accidents with very large environmental consequences.     

J-value analysis of different regulatory limits for workers and the public

The J-value technique allows an objective determination to be made of the resources that should be applied cost effectively to improve heath and safety. This is essential if capabilities are to be employed optimally and risks reduced in a way that reflects their severity. Although other considerations such as good practice and socio-political influences may affect a final decision on the resources to be sanctioned, the incorporation of these additional factors should be made transparent if the decision is no longer to be based on cost effectiveness. The J-value provides an objective criterion by which to judge when “reasonable practicability” has been achieved in committing resources for safety improvement, which is the legal requirement under health and safety law in the UK.Moreover, the J-value methodology also allows other related issues to be addressed objectively. Regulatory bodies apply different limits for workers and the general public, with higher risks being permitted for workers. Although a factor of about 10 has been used in several contexts, no objective rationale has been developed for this particular figure until now. However, it is shown that application of the J-value analysis can provide a justification for a ratio of workers’ risk to public risk of approximately this size if certain reasonable assumptions are made. Thus the paper provides the first quantitative explanation for the different levels of protection demanded by regulators nationally and internationally for workers and public.     

The effect of the exposure time on the value of a manSievert averted

The basis of the manSievert as a unit for collective radiation dose is discussed and previous recommendations are considered for how much should be spent to avert a collective dose of 1 manSv. New calculations are given using the J-value method. It is shown that the value to be assigned to averting a manSievert depends on the duration of averted exposure as well as on the net discount rate and the loan rate thought to be appropriate. Different figures will result depending on whether the exposed group consists of workers or the general public. The variation with dose duration is so large that it is not possible to recommend a single figure for the value of a manSievert. Instead, tables are given at two conservative, loan and net discount rates for the value of a manSievert as a function of exposure time. The base data for the J-value method need to be updated annually, and this means that the values given in the tables will increase over time as people live longer and become richer.     

Investigation on removal of p-nitrophenol using a hybridized photo-thermal activated persulfate process: Central composite design modeling

The aim of this work is the study of p-nitrophenol (PNP) removal, as a nitroaromatic compound, using a hybridized photo-thermally activated potassium persulfate (KPS) in a fully recycled batch reactor. Response surface method was used for modeling the process. Reaction temperature, KPS initial dosage and initial pH of the solution were selected as variables, besides PNP degradation efficiency was selected as the response. ANOVA analysis reveals that a second order polynomial model with F-value of 41.7, p-value of 0.0001 and regression coefficient of 0.95 is able to predict the response. Based on the model, the process optimum conditions were introduced as initial pH of 4.5, [KPS]₀ = 1452 mg/L and T = 66 °C. Also experiments showed that using thermolysis and photolysis of the persulfate simultaneously, the role of thermolysis is not considerable. A pseudo first order kinetic model was established to describe the degradation reaction. Operational cost, as a vital industrial criterion, was estimated so that the condition of initial pH of 4.5, [KPS]₀ = 1452 mg/L and T = 25 °C showed the highest cost effective case. Under the preferred mild condition, the process will reach to 84% and 89% of degradation and mineralization efficiencies, after 60 and 120 min, respectively.     

Thermal research on the uncontrolled behavior of styrene bulk polymerization

Thermal runaway can occur during the styrene bulk polymerization process because of easily formed local hotspots resulting from the high viscosity of reactants and the difficulty of heat dissipation. To obtain the thermal hazard characteristics, the polymerization behavior of styrene was investigated using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) at a scanning rate of β = 2 °C/min. Experimental results showed that the exothermic peaks obtained for heat initiation were different from those obtained when initiator was added. The exothermic peak changed from one to two after the initiator was added. The exothermic onset temperature (T₀) was also reduced. Phi-tech II was utilized to study the bulk polymerization of styrene in an adiabatic environment. The adiabatic temperature rise (ΔT_ad), starting temperature of uncontrolled polymerization (T_star), maximum temperature (T_end), and heat of polymerization (ΔH) under different conditions were acquired. When the dose of the additive was increased, the starting temperature of uncontrolled polymerization (T_star) decreased and the adiabatic temperature rise (ΔT_ad) increased gradually. Severity grading was performed based on the severity evaluation criteria of runaway reaction. The results can help designers decide whether it is necessary to take certain measures to reduce risk.     

Thermal hazard analysis of triacetone triperoxide (TATP) by DSC and GC/MS

Thermal degradation of triacetone triperoxide (TATP) was studied using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). TATP, a potential explosive material, is powerful organic peroxide (OP) that can be synthesized by available chemicals, such as acetone and hydrogen peroxide in the laboratory or industries. The thermokinetic parameters, such as exothermic onset temperature (T₀) and heat of decomposition (ΔH_d), were determined by DSC tests. The gas products from thermal degradation of TATP were identified using GC/MS technique.In this study, H₂O₂ was mixed with propanone (acetone) and H₂SO₄ catalysis that produced TATP. The T₀ of TATP was determined to be 40 °C and E_a was calculated to be 65 kJ/mol. A thermal decomposition peak of H₂O₂ was analyzed by DSC and two thermal decomposition peaks of H₂O₂/propanone were determined. Therefore, H₂O₂/propanone mixture was applied to mix acid that was discovered a thermal decomposition peak (as TATP) in this study. According to risk assessment and analysis methodologies, risk assessment of TATP for the environmental and human safety issue was evaluated as 2-level of hazard probability rating (P) and 6-level of severity of consequences ratings (S). Therefore, the result of risk assessment is 12-point and was evaluated as “Undesirable” that should be enforced the effect of control method to reduce the risk.     

Analytical modelling of hydrocarbon pool fires: Conservative evaluation of flame temperature and thermal power

As well known, risk is a combination of probability and consequences of an accident. In analyzing the consequence of accidental hydrocarbon fires and the potential for domino effects, the evaluation of the flame extent and temperature are of the utmost importance. Since the primary effects of pool fires are connected to thermal radiation and issues of interplant/tank spacing employees’ safety zones, firewall specifications are to be addressed on the basis of a proper consequence analysis. By means of real scale experimental tests it was verified that both the thermal power and the flame temperature, T_f, increase as the pool area increases, up to reach maximum values in connection with a “critical pool dimension”. Dealing with pool areas higher than the critical one, experimental results, performed by different researchers at different scales, show a decrease of T_f. An in-depth analysis of the different concurring phenomena connected to a pool fire development allowed identifying the limiting step controlling the flame temperature. In fact, the trend of T_f is mainly determined by the increasing difficulty of oxygen diffusion within the internal bulk of gaseous hydrocarbons. In this article, we propose a novel pool fire modelling approach based on the simplified physical phenomena occurring in a circular turbulent diffusion fire and suitable to provide a theoretical insight into the above-mentioned experimental trends and to obtain the maximum values of the flame temperature and of the thermal power.The geometry of the pool is dictated by the surroundings (i.e., diking) and the analytical models here presented were successfully applied to the common situation of circular pools.However, it must be remarked that the developed model, matching fairly well experimental data for different hydrocarbons, can be applied in modelling similar scenarios characterized by different geometric or environmental conditions (e.g. road and rail tunnel fires).     

The trade-offs embodied in J-value safety analysis

The paper presents a new derivation of the J-value method for assessing health and safety expenditure that highlights the fact that two trade-offs are involved. The trade-off between safety spend and the resulting improvement in life expectancy rests on a prior trade between free-time fraction and income, made at a societal level. It is suggested that each trade is a specific instance of a more general exchange between expected free-time and income, and that the terms of the trade-off are similar, so that the percentage increase in life expectancy has the same value as a similar percentage increase in total expected free-time. The theoretical framework suggests that the average person values all his time equally, but perceives that he has sold his expected working time to an employer, so that, while he will still place a value on it, he does not see that value as coming to him, but rather going to his employer in exchange for the compensation he is being paid. Thus he values the extra years of life expectancy he obtains from a health and safety measure solely in terms of the extra years of free-time he expects to gain. The value of the exponent in the life-quality index has been shown to be equal to both the modulus of the elasticity of expected future free-time with respect to income and the modulus of the elasticity of life expectancy with respect to income. The indifference curves on the planes of income versus life expectancy and income versus discounted life expectancy have been shown to be the loci of J = 1. The actuarial basis for the calculation of working time fraction to the end of life has been explained, and data on the share of wages in Gross Domestic Product have been discussed. Based on recent statistics from the UK economy, the average person would be prepared to forego about 5½% of his income to the end of life in order to increase his life expectancy or discounted life expectancy by 1%, and would require his lifetime income to be increased by 5½% to compensate him for a loss of 1% in his life expectancy, discounted or otherwise. A small degree of asymmetry will, however, occur for larger percentage changes in life expectancy, with the average person requiring somewhat more compensation for a loss of life expectancy than he is prepared to pay for a gain.     

Safe direct synthesis of H2O2 within the explosion limit of H2 enabled by low-temperature stable bcc-PdCu alloy membrane

Pd based membrane provides an inherently safer way to handle flammable mixture of hydrogen and oxygen, as it could selectively isolate hydrogen from other gases. However, due to their susceptibility to hydrogen embrittlement, pure Pd membranes are not suitable for processes at low temperature. To solve this problem, body-centered cubic (bcc)-PdCu alloy membranes were prepared by the combination of electroplating and electroless plating. The hydrogen permeation rate (J_H2), N₂ leak rate (J_N2) and H₂/N₂ selectivity (α_H2/N2) remained stable through 200 h continuous operation in H₂ at 298 K and ΔP_H2 = 100 kPa. The excellent low-temperature tolerance of bcc-PdCu membranes rendered them ideal materials for the capture and activation of hydrogen during the direct hydrogen peroxide synthesis from hydrogen and oxygen. The reaction could be performed safely within the explosive limit of hydrogen/oxygen by feeding the gases separately from the opposite sides of the membrane with no direct contact. 60 mmol m⁻² h⁻¹ formation rate, 40% H₂O₂ selectivity, and a nearly 100% hydrogen conversion was reached at 298 K, 500 kPa.     

Research on the critical temperature of thermal decomposition for large cartridge emulsion explosives

Emulsion explosives are one type of main industrial explosives. The emergence of the large cartridge emulsion explosives has brought new security incidents. The differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and the accelerating rate calorimeter (ARC) were selected for the preliminary investigation of the thermal stability of emulsion explosives. The results showed that the initial thermal decomposition temperatures were in the range of 232–239 °C in nitrogen atmosphere (220–232 °C in oxygen atmosphere) in DSC measurements and 216 °C in ARC measurements. The slow cook-off experiments were carried out to investigate the critical temperature of the thermal decomposition (T_c) of the large cartridge emulsion explosives. The results indicated that the larger the diameter of the emulsion explosives, the smaller the T_c is. For the large cartridge emulsion explosives with diameter of 70 mm, the T_c was 170 °C at the heating rate of 3 °C h⁻¹. It is a dangerous temperature for the production of the large cartridge emulsion explosives and it should cause our attention.     

Computing the limits of risk aversion

Utility theory can be used to model the decision process involved in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of systems that protect against a risk to assets. A key variable in the model is the coefficient of relative risk aversion (or simply “risk-aversion”) which reflects the decision maker's reluctance to invest in such safety systems. This reluctance to invest is the scaled difference in expected utility before and after installing the safety system and has a minimum at some given value of risk-aversion known as the “permission point”, and it has been argued that decisions to sanction safety systems would be made at this point. As the cost of implementing a safety system increases, this difference in utility will diminish. At some point, the “point of indiscriminate decision”, the decision maker will not be able to discern any benefit from installing the safety system. This point is used to calculate the maximum reasonable cost of a proposed safety system. The value of the utility difference at which the decision maker is unable to discern any difference is called the “discrimination limit”.By considering the full range of accident probabilities, costs of the safety system and potential loss of assets, an average risk-aversion can be calculated from the model. This paper presents the numerical and computational techniques employed in performing these calculations. Two independent approaches to the calculations have been taken, the first of which is the derivative-based secant method, an extension of the referred derivative method employed in previous papers. The second is the Golden Bisection Method, based on a Golden Section Search algorithm, which was found to be more robust but less efficient than the secant method. The average risk-aversion is a function of several key parameters: the organisation's assets, the probability and maximum cost of an incident, and the discrimination limit. An analysis of the sensitivity of the results to changes in these parameters is presented. An average risk-aversion of 0.8–1.0 is found for a wide range of parameters appropriate to individuals or small companies, while an average risk-aversion of 0.1 is found for large corporations. This reproduces the view that large corporations will be risk neutral until faced with risks that pose a threat to their viability.     

Experimental determination of dust cloud combustion parameters of α-AlH3 powder in its charged and fully discharged states for H2 storage applications

This study discusses results of an experimental program for determination of dust cloud combustion parameters of charged and fully discharged states of metastable alane (aluminum hydride, α-AlH₃ polymorph) powder in air. The measured characterization parameters include: maximum deflagration pressure rise (ΔP_MAX), maximum rate of pressure rise (dP/dt)_MAX, minimum ignition temperature (T_C), minimum explosible concentration (MEC), and minimum ignition energy (MIE). These measured values are used for calculating the associated explosion severity (ES) index, and volume-normalized maximum rate of pressure rise (K_St). The experimental results show values of MEC and T_C of fully discharged alane to be greater than those of the charged alane but measured MIE values are about the same. Moreover, the results show higher reactivity of fully discharged alane dust cloud in air compared to its charged state. For example, ES and K_St of discharged alane dust cloud in air are about 300% and 35% greater, respectively, than ES and K_St of charged alane dust. The higher air reactivity of fully-discharged (primarily Al powder) dust cloud compared to its charged state can be attributed to the higher surface energy (J/m²) of Al compared to that of α-AlH₃. These experimental insights have safety implications in postulated risk scenarios involving light-duty vehicles powered by PEM fuel cells. The core insights and critical data provided by this contribution are useful for supporting development and promulgation of hydrogen safety standards and augmenting property databases of hydrogen storage materials.     

SVM application in hazard assessment: Self-heating for sulfurized rust

In order to assess the oxidation self-heating hazard of sulfurized rust, for particular ambient conditions in crude oil tanks, the support vector machine (SVM) technique is applied to predict the maximum temperature (T_max) of oxidation self-heating process. Five governing parameters are selected, i.e. the water content, mass of sulfurized rust, operating temperature, air flow rate and oxygen concentration in the respiratory/safety valve. The efficiency and validity of the SVM predictions are investigated in the case of two sets of data: more than 85 experiments performed in academic lab (China) and almost 17 additional results collected from existing literature. Two main steps are also discussed: the training process (on selected subsets of data) and prediction process (for the remaining subsets of data). It can be concluded that for both datasets the maximum temperature (T_max) values calculated by SVM technique were in good accordance with the experimental results, with relative errors smaller than 15% except for a few cases.The SVM technique seems therefore to be relevant and very helpful for complex implicit processes such as chemical reactions, as it is the case of the oxidation of sulfurized rust in oil tanks. Furthermore, such predictive methods can be continuously be improved through additional experiments feedback (larger databases) and can then be of crucial help for monitoring and early warning of hazardous reactions.     

Thermal hazard evaluation for iso-octanol nitration with mixed acid

2-Ethylhexyl nitrate (2-EHN), an important additive to diesel fuel, is produced from the nitration of iso-octanol with HNO₃–H₂SO₄ mixed acid. In this study, the differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), accelerating rate calorimeter (ARC) and reaction calorimeter were used to analyze the thermal stability of 2-EHN and the thermal hazard of iso-octanol nitration. Four samples with different ratios of 2-EHN to mixed acid were tested using DSC. The results indicated that more mixed acid could catalyze the decomposition of 2-EHN. Three samples were tested using ARC and the results showed that sample 4 contained the lowest onset temperatures, T_D8 and T_D24. This shows that there is a higher probability of triggering the decomposition of the product 2-EHN from the iso-octanol nitration process. This conclusion was verified using RC1e tests at different temperatures. The RC1e experiments also indicated that the overall heat generation of these reactions was considerably large despite the high yields of the nitration process at 45 °C and 55 °C. This heat generation makes these semi-batch processes difficult to control, especially on a pilot or plant scale. Based on the maximum temperature of the synthesis reaction (MTSR) corrected by the yield, the only acceptable semi-batch process is the nitration reaction at 10 °C.     

Environmental and eco-costs life cycle assessment of an acrylonitrile process by capacity enlargement in Mexico

Life cycle assessment and marginal prevention costs (eco-costs method) for an acrylonitrile plant were carried out estimating the environmental impact and the eco-costs, due to the increment in the production capacity. This study compares the old plant's operative performance (old design) at 50,000 ton/year where the by-products were incinerated, with the current operation at 60,000 ton/year where those by-products in the waste stream will be treated to take advantage of its substance content, to generate profitable products. In addition, the effect of a wastewater flow rate with cyanide was evaluated on the biological wastewater treatment process.The redesign showed a high reduction percentage in eleven of eighteen midpoint impact categories. The reduction of 36% in the global impacts in the redesign was obtained when these ones were calculated based on the impacts of the year of 2005. The CO₂ emissions equivalents (CO₂eq) had a reduction of 46% (from 6.55 to 3.50 kg CO₂eq/kg of acrylonitrile). The total of marginal prevention costs (eco-costs) are 1.28 USD/kg for acrylonitrile old design and the 0.735 USD/kg for acrylonitrile redesign, i.e. 42.5% lower than the old design. This means that 94.5% are costs for pollution and the use of energy and 5.4% by depletions of material resources.This study proved that the redesign is environmentally most favorable and economically affordable method.Eco-costs method should be incorporated as part of the financial indicators of a project, but with the respective adaptation to the environmental and economic conditions of a region.     

A comparison of motorcycle instructor candidate selection practices in the United States

Introduction: An essential aspect of motorcycle rider education is how the instructor selection process impacts student learning, sometimes referred to as the human element, as it is a significant factor influencing curriculum success. Student and program achievements are partially contingent on instructors who understand the curriculum and facilitate student learning during instruction. Previous research on motorcycle rider education has emphasized a need for the examination of instructor selection and development, stating that quality education is reliant on instructors who are competent and qualified. Method: By applying an exploratory study method, state and military Motorcycle Safety Education Program Managers and Instructor Trainers were examined and compared through telephonic interviews to develop a greater understanding of instructor candidate selection criteria and vetting processes. Results: The results suggest that changes in instructor candidate selection systems may improve decisions about a candidate's job and organizational fit. Conclusions: Study conclusions indicate that use of multiple and thorough assessments to determine a candidate’s motivation, social disposition, and emotional intelligence before preparation courses may better identify candidates and align potential job and organization fit within the discipline. Practical Application: Applications of the findings would include a standardized selection process with improved interviews and pre-course auditing, and candidate expectation management before the selection to attend preparation or certification courses. The efforts potentially decrease long-term costs and deficiencies when candidates have an inconsistent job or organizational fit, departing from organizations after short periods or by not providing consistent quality instruction to students. The study recommendations, when implemented, can improve most educational disciplines where instructors are selected for technical instructional positions where students risk injury or harm.