Gender impact on first trimester markers in Down syndrome screening

The influence of fetal gender on the level in the first trimester of the serological markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) and on nuchal translucency is described for 2637 singleton pregnancies with normal outcome. Mean log MoM values for pregnancies with female and male fetuses were calculated using regression of log marker values on gestational age expressed as crown rump length and on maternal weight. A pronounced gender impact was found for free βhCG, being 16% higher for female than for male fetuses. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inaccurate estimation of risk in second trimester serum screening for Down syndrome among women who have already had first trimester screening

Problems can arise in prenatal screening for Down syndrome when tests are performed in the first and second trimester and some women who have a negative first trimester test have a second trimester serum test. The second test result does not usually take account of the previous one being negative. Even if it does, it is often inaccurate. Using published data the extent of the error was examined. The age-specific risk of an affected pregnancy in such women will be lower than if no first trimester test had been performed. The distributions of the screening markers in affected and unaffected pregnancies will be different from those in unscreened women. If the appropriate age-specific risk and marker distributions are not used, error will arise. For example, a 35-year-old woman with nuchal translucency (NT), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels at the normal median would have a risk of 1 in 6500. If she then had the Triple Test with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol, and hCG levels of 0.7, 0.7 and 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM), respectively, her risk, ignoring the previous result, would be overestimated (1 in 95 compared with the correct estimate of 1 in 705). If the previous result was included, but the age-specific risk and second trimester marker distributions were not revised, her risk would be underestimated (1 in 820). If the correct age-specific risk and screening marker distributions were used, risk estimates would be accurate, but two tests would be less efficient than integrating all the screening information into a single test. The practice of offering second trimester serum screening to women who have already been screened is best avoided. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agreement between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome in first trimester nuchal translucency screening

The agreement between predicted risks of Down syndrome and observed prevalence was investigated in a population of 11 847 singleton pregnancies screened by first trimester nuchal translucency at a single institution. Twenty-seven cases of Down syndrome were observed; 20 were detected prenatally by nuchal translucency and maternal age screening, three by other means and four postnatally. The screened women were grouped according to their predicted risk of having an affected pregnancy, and this was compared with the observed prevalence. A significant correlation between predicted and observed prevalences was noted, thus demonstrating that risk estimates for Down syndrome based on first trimester nuchal translucency screening are accurate. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The first trimester ‘combined test’ for the detection of Down syndrome pregnancies in 4939 unselected pregnancies

The high detection rate (DR) for Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies which can be achieved by measuring fetal nuchal translucency (NT) early in pregnancy can be improved by combining it with placental hormones [pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (fβ-hCG)] and maternal age (‘combined test’). In this study we wanted to assess the DR using the ‘combined test’ in an unselected population of self-referred pregnant women at a false-positive rate (FPR) of about 5%. NT, PAPP-A, fβ-hCG and maternal age were measured in all women with singleton pregnancies who booked for delivery in our hospital from 1 December 1997 to 31 April 2000 and who were between 10 and 13 completed weeks of gestation [crown–rump length (CRL) 35–70 mm]. The specific DS risk was calculated using the computer program Alpha Version 5aa (Logical Medical Systems, London, UK). A total of 4939 women were tested. Out of 14 DS pregnancies that occurred during this period of time, 12 were detected with the test. A total of 246 women had a false-positive test result in a non-DS pregnancy (FPR 5.0%). This makes the ‘combined test’ by far the best test for the detection of DS pregnancies in a low-risk population. The constant increase in maternal age at the time of delivery can also lead to an improved DR if a simple age-dependant protocol for DS detection is used, but only at the price of a much higher number of amniocenteses and subsequent abortions. The DR for DS can be increased much more markedly using the ‘combined test’ with a FPR that still remains at the level as it was in the early 1970s. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-trimester maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies

Maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels were investigated in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies to determine whether TSH can be used as a marker for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Measurements were conducted on stored serum samples collected from 23 Down syndrome pregnancies and 115 unaffected pregnancies before chorionic villus sampling (CVS), between 9 and 11 completed weeks of pregnancy. The samples were matched for gestational age, maternal age, maternal weight and duration of storage of the serum sample. Maternal TSH concentration was slightly decreased in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 0.84 multiples of the median (MoM). Maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration was slightly elevated in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 1.03 MoM. Both differences were not significant applying matched rank analysis (p=0.50 for TSH and p=0.43 for hCG). The association between TSH and hCG in unaffected pregnancies was also measured. The Spearman correlation coefficient between TSH and hCG was −0.21 which was statistically significant (p=0.02, 95% confidence interval −0.38 to −0.03). However, it was concluded that TSH is not a useful marker for distinguishing Down syndrome-affected pregnancies from normal pregnancies in the first trimester. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin in the first trimester: Implications for down's syndrome screening

The aim of this study was to determine the maternal population, pregnancy, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free β subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (FβhCG) parameters in a large series of women attending prenatal clinics before 15 weeks' gestation and to assess the practical problems of population screening for Down's syndrome in the first trimester using these markers. Serum samples were collected from 8600 women attending prenatal clinic booking visits. Maternal serum AFP and FβhCG medians were calculated for each day of gestation (49–104 days), using both dates and ultrasound estimates of gestation. The effects of maternal weight, twin pregnancies, and threatened abortion on AFP and FβhCG levels were analysed. The median age of the population was 27.1 years and the median weight 62.1 kg. Twenty-six per cent of samples were collected before 70 days and 50 per cent before 78 days' gestation. Eighty-nine per cent of all samples had gestational estimates by dates, 60 per cent by ultrasound and 52 per cent by both dates and ultrasound. The AFP median was 5 kU/1 at 49 days, 5.9 kU/1 at 70 days, and 17.9 kU/1 at 100 days. The peak median FβhCG level was 66.4 ng/ml at 64 days, falling to 20.6 ng/ml at 100 days' gestation. Both AFP and FβhCG levels showed log Gaussian distributions but the standard deviation for AFP was 20 per cent greater than that found in the second trimester. AFP and FβhCG levels showed an inverse relationship with maternal weight and were increased in twin pregnancies (1.68 and 1.97 multiples of the median, respectively). AFP and FβhCG can be readily measured in a large screening population in the first trimester. Down's syndrome screening protocols based on these markers could be refined by the use of gestations in individual days but AFP is likely to be a less effective marker and detection rates are likely to be lower than in the second trimester. To realize the potential of first-trimester screening, more women should be encouraged to attend the prenatal clinic in early pregnancy and ultrasound dating should be carried out for all pregnancies at this stage.     

Compromise ultrasound dating policy in maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

Routine ultrasound biometry is the method of choice for gestational dating when screening for Down syndrome. However, it is costly and an alternative policy is to restrict ultrasound to women most likely to have menstrual dating errors. This was evaluated by statistical modelling with parameters from 14 274 women screened between January 1997 and July 2001 using free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free β-hCG), α-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated estriol (uE₃). A total of 12 711 (89%) women had both ultrasound and menstrual gestations, but in 4101 (29%) women either the last menstrual period (LMP) was uncertain or a pill-withdrawal period, or there were irregular or abnormal length cycles. The LMP was not entered in the test request form for a further 1404 (9.8%) women. Routine ultrasound dating yielded a predicted detection rate higher than for menstrual dating by 3.9–7.1%, depending on the marker combination and cut-off. The false-positive rate was reduced by 0.2–1.1%. Selectively scanning the 39% with unreliable dates increased detection by 2.6–4.6%, and reduced the false-positive rate by 0.04–0.6%. Some centres only use the ultrasound estimate of gestation when it differs from the menstrual estimate by more than 7 days. Such a rule reduces the gain in detection rate to 2.5–4.6% for routine ultrasound and 1.7–3.1% with the compromise policy; the false-positive rate reductions are 0.06–0.6% and 0.0–0.3%, respectively. We conclude that if routine ultrasound is not financially and practically feasible, the compromise policy yields a clinically important improvement in screening performance compared to menstrual dating. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-trimester alpha-fetoprotein screening for Down syndrome

Screening for Down syndrome and other chromosomal aneuploidies by biochemical parameters in maternal serum is well established for the second trimester. With screening as late as 16 weeks of gestation, the option of chorionic villus sampling (CVS) unfortunately is lost. In our study population, the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) concentration was determined in 2471 women in the first trimester immediately prior to CVS. Although in this sample MSAFP tended to be lower in Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies than in pregnancies with a chromosomally normal fetus, at this early gestational age neither a fixed cut-off level of 0·5 multiples of the normal median (MOM) nor one of 0·6 MOM was suitable for identifying pregnancies at higher risk for DS. This also applied to trisomy 18, although on average MSAFP in trisomy 18 pregnancies was lower than in normal and DS pregnancies.