Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions?

One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are often comprised of many sub‐models adopted from a wide range of disciplines. A multi‐disciplinary tool kit is presented, from which three decades of IA of global climatic change issues have tapped. A distinction between multi‐ and inter‐disciplinarity is suggested, hinging on the synergistic value added for the latter. Then, a hierarchy of five generations of IAMs are proposed, roughly paralleling the development of IAMs as they incorporated more components of the coupled physical, biological and social scientific disciplines needed to address a “real world” problem like climatic change impacts and policy responses. The need for validation protocols and exploration of predictability limits is also emphasized. The critical importance of making value‐laden assumptions highly transparent in both natural and social scientific components of IAMs is stressed, and it is suggested that incorporating decision‐makers and other citizens into the early design of IAMs can help with this process. The latter could also help IA modelers to offer a large range of value‐containing options via menu driven designs. Examples of specific topics which are often not well understood by potential users of IAMs are briefly surveyed, and it is argued that if the assumptions and values embedded in such topics are not made explicit to users, then IAMs, rather than helping to provide us with refined insights, could well hide value‐laden assumptions or conditions. In particular, issues of induced technological change, timing of carbon abatement, transients, surprises, adaptation, subjective probability assessment and the use of contemporary spatial variations as a substitute for time evolving changes (what I label “ergodic economics”) are given as examples of problematic issues that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent if IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal. A checklist of six practices which might help to increase transparency of IAMs is offered in the conclusions. Incorporation of decision‐makers into all stages of development and use of IAMs is re‐emphasized as one safeguard against misunderstanding or misrepresentation of IAM results by lay audiences.     

Integrated assessment of potential health impact of global environmental change: Prospects and limitations

Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.     

A delphi-style approach for developing an integrated food/non-food system sustainability assessment tool

Sustainability assessment is a complex field and its uptake amongst agricultural producers limited. Furthermore, the scope of current sustainability assessment tools does not extend to systems in which food production is integrated with production of non-food biomass (e.g. agroforestry). Participatory approaches to tool development offer a means to overcome the subjectivity of researcher-led tool design and thus the potential to increase relevance and engagement. In this work we develop a Delphi-style methodology as a means to produce a sustainability assessment tool suitable to assess and feedback on an integrated food/non-food system. Using a widely accepted agricultural sustainability framework and an existing farm sustainability assessment tool as a base, stakeholders were engaged with across six countries and multiple stakeholder groups to identify key indicators to be added to the tool. The methodology developed is described in detail, framed in the setting of this tool development process but providing a novel framework applicable to any situation where indicators must be developed for a complex issue of interest across multiple perspectives and stakeholder groups. Feedback and learning from the experience is provided. It was found that, contrary to some opinion, the inclusion of a face-to-face discussion round as part of the Delphi procedure provides a valuable means for information exchange and a move towards consensus amongst stakeholders. By using a ‘snowball’ approach to the in person discussions, it appears too that the loss of the voices of more socially retiring individuals can be avoided. Final levels of agreement vary substantially across the different areas of sustainability, with indicators in some areas (e.g. environmental integrity) proving much less controversial than others (e.g. social wellbeing). Despite this, the methodology effectively reaches a level of consensus amongst diverse stakeholders sufficient to guide the selection of sustainability indicators with a good level of confidence.     

Development of a New Approach to Cumulative Effects Assessment: A Northern River Ecosystem Example

If sustainable development of Canadian waters is to be achieved, a realistic and manageable framework is required for assessing cumulative effects. The objective of this paper is to describe an approach for aquatic cumulative effects assessment that was developed under the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative. The approach is based on a review of existing monitoring practices in Canada and the presence of existing thresholds for aquatic ecosystem health assessments. It suggests that a sustainable framework is possible for cumulative effects assessment of Canadian waters that would result in integration of national indicators of aquatic health, integration of national initiatives (e.g., water quality index, environmental effects monitoring), and provide an avenue where long-term monitoring programs could be integrated with baseline and follow-up monitoring conducted under the environmental assessment process.     

Quality of Cultural Heritage in EIA; twenty years of experience in Norway

The aim of this paper is to clarify and discuss how quality, relevance, attitudes, beliefs and transfer value act as underlying driving forces in the development of the Cultural Heritage theme in EIAs. One purpose is to identify and discuss some conditions that can better environmental assessment in order to increase the significance of EIA in decision-making with regard to Cultural Heritage.The main tools used are different research methods designed for analyses of quality and quality changes, primarily based on the relevant opinions of 160 people occupied with Cultural Heritage in EIA in Norway. The study is based on a review of 40 types of EIAs from 1991 to 2000, an online questionnaire to 319 (160 responded) individuals from 14 different backgrounds, and interviews with three institutions in Sweden and Denmark.The study confirms a steadily increasing quality on EIRs over time, parallel with an improvement of the way in which Cultural Heritage is treated in EIA. This is supported by both the interviews and the qualitative comments regarding the survey. Potential for improvements is shown to be a need for more detailed background material as well as more use of adequate methods.The survey shows the existence of a wide variety of negative views, attitudes and beliefs, but the consequences of this are difficult to evaluate. However, most certainly, negative attitudes and beliefs have not been powerful enough to be detrimental to the quality of Cultural Heritage component, as nothing in the study indicates that negative attitudes and myths are undermining the system of EIA.The study shows the importance of having on-going discussions on quality and quality change over time by people involved in EIA, and how this is a necessary condition for successful implementation and acceptance. Beliefs and negative attitudes can also be a catalyst for developing better practice and advancing new methodology. In addition, new EIA countries must be prepared for several years of development and improvements after implementation. This is important in order to gain acceptance from the bureaucracy, especially from the Cultural Heritage authorities and local population.     

筛选试剂盒法在土壤多氯联苯检测中的应用

用筛选试剂盒法对5个场地土壤样品中的多氯联苯(PCBs)进行了快速筛选检测,并用气相色谱-质谱法对筛选结果进行了验证。结果表明,筛选试剂盒法的筛选结果准确,但是个别样品测试结果偏高,其原因可能是样品中其他含氯有机物的干扰所致。     

Deliberative assessment in complex socioecological systems: recommendations for environmental assessment in drylands

Desertification is a complex process, characterised not only by a damaged ecology but also by conflict over access to scarce resources and trade-offs between the needs of multiple stakeholders at multiple scales. As such, orthodox approaches to environmental assessment in drylands, which rely solely on ecological expertise, are gradually losing legitimacy and greater attention is being given to integrated and participatory assessment approaches, which draw on multiple sources of knowledge in order to accurately describe complex socioecological processes. Moreover, there is growing recognition that successful management of desertification requires a strategy that can accommodate the multiple and often competing needs of contemporary and future stakeholders. In light of these conceptual advances, this paper highlights seven key criteria that dryland environmental assessments must meet: (1) accurately understand complex socioecological system processes, (2) focus on slow variables, (3) integrate multiple scales of analysis, (4) integrate multiple stakeholder perspectives and values, (5) ensure that future generations are fairly represented, (6) ensure that less powerful stakeholders are fairly represented and (7) integrate local and scientific knowledge. The virtues and challenges of deliberative environmental assessments, a novel subset of participatory environmental assessment approaches which places emphasis on social learning, argumentation and critical reflection, are considered in relation to each of these requirements. We argue that deliberative approaches have the potential to achieve accurate, progressive and integrated assessment of dryland environments.     

Carbon footprint: current methods of estimation

Increasing greenhouse gaseous concentration in the atmosphere is perturbing the environment to cause grievous global warming and associated consequences. Following the rule that only measurable is manageable, mensuration of greenhouse gas intensiveness of different products, bodies, and processes is going on worldwide, expressed as their carbon footprints. The methodologies for carbon footprint calculations are still evolving and it is emerging as an important tool for greenhouse gas management. The concept of carbon footprinting has permeated and is being commercialized in all the areas of life and economy, but there is little coherence in definitions and calculations of carbon footprints among the studies. There are disagreements in the selection of gases, and the order of emissions to be covered in footprint calculations. Standards of greenhouse gas accounting are the common resources used in footprint calculations, although there is no mandatory provision of footprint verification. Carbon footprinting is intended to be a tool to guide the relevant emission cuts and verifications, its standardization at international level are therefore necessary. Present review describes the prevailing carbon footprinting methods and raises the related issues.     

Documenting measurement sensitivity and bias of field-measured parameters in water quality monitoring programs

Measurement sensitivity and bias quality control metrics are commonly reported for water-quality parameters measured in the laboratory. Less commonly recognized is that they should also be reported for field-measured parameters. Periodic evaluation helps document data quality and can help serve as early warning if there are problems with methods or techniques that could negatively affect ability to interpret threshold values and trends over time. This study focuses on traditional assessment of bias and introduces a new method for estimating measurement sensitivity of water-quality parameters measured monthly in the field. Alternative measurement sensitivity is a new data quality indicator used to demonstrate how quantifying sensitivity at the measurement level can improve understanding the uncertainty affecting each reported data value. That, in turn, can help interpret the meaning of results from many separate data points measured in the field. In this 30-month study, pH and specific conductance consistently met, and dissolved oxygen did not always meet NPS and USGS quality control standards for bias. Evaluation of dissolved oxygen bias and sensitivity during the study provided impetus to improve calibration techniques that resulted in data that later met quality goals.     

城市空气质量综合评价的可拓方法

可拓方法是从定性和定量两个角度去处理现实世界中矛盾问题的一种新方法 ,它能较完整地反映事物的综合质量水平。本文介绍了可拓评价方法的基本原理 ,并探讨了该方法在城市空气质量综合评价中的应用 ,结果表明是合理可行的     

Comparison of weight assignment procedures in evaluation of environmental impacts

Environmental impact evaluation is an essential component in environmental impact assessment (EIA) study for any developmental project, wherein importance assignment to various parameters depends on human judgement/experts opinion, which involves a high order of subjectivity. In order to minimise bias and subjectivity in evaluation of impacts, and hence in decision making, three different methods, viz. Battelle environmental evaluation system (BEES), importance scale matrix (ISM), and a combination of both, are considered in the present study. A case study for a development project (setting up a new industry) in an industrial belt situated in a region, which is rich in biological resources with good agricultural productivity and having high potential for further industrial development, is presented. The results of the other two methods are compared with the widely used method of BEES. Both methods are found comparable to the BEES method. However, it is observed that the ISM approach provides a better tool for reducing bias and subjectivity occurring in human judgement.     

Uncertainty in integrated assessment: A social scientific perspective

In the context of integrated assessment, the authors address the issue of uncertainty and subjectivity in modelling. In relating bias to different perspectives, the authors introduce the methodology of multiple model routes, which are reflections of different perceptions of reality and various policy preferences. As heuristic they use three perspectives, which are distinguished in cultural theory. The article describes case-studies on the population and health controversy in order to illustrate the possibilities of their approach. The article concludes with discussing the lessons learned by applying this methodology.     

Tailoring a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning

This study attempts to develop a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning in Gorgan Township area, Iran. Applying three suitability layers of environmental risk (soil erosion, flood risk, fire risk, and land susceptibility), urbanization potential, and integrated surface (environmental risk plus urbanization potential layers), a non-path-dependent Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model was configured to execute three scenarios of polycentric urban growth allocation. Specifically, the modeling approach improved the traditional functionality of the CA-MC model from a prediction algorithm into an innovative land allocation tool. Besides, due to its flexibility, the non-path-dependent model was able to explicitly include different characteristics of the landscape structure ranging from physical land attributes to landscape functions and processes (natural hazards). Accordingly, three polycentric urban growth allocation efforts were undertaken and compared in terms of connectivity and compactness of the resultant patterns and consumption of other land resources. Based on results, the polycentric allocation procedure based on integrated suitability layer produced a more manageable pattern of urban landscape, while the growth option based on environmental risk layer was more successful for protecting farmlands against excessive urbanization. This study suggests that polycentric urban land-use planning under the strategy of rural land development programs is an available option for designing an urban landscape with lower exposure to natural hazards and more economic benefits to rural residents. Finally, the non-path-dependent modeling is a recommended approach, when highly flexible and interactive decision-support systems as well as trend-breaking scenarios are desired.     

Incorporating cleaner production analysis into environmental impact assessment in china

An environmental impact assessment (EIA) system was established in 1979 in China. Although EIA was designed as a tool for pollution prevention, in practice it has been based on end-of-pipe (EOP) treatment control since it was first introduced. This approach has ensured an overwhelming focus by enterprises on the use of EOP treatment, rather than pollution prevention, to meet environmental standards, and it has produced a low rate of operation for EOP facilities. The low operation rate for EOP facilities can be traced to the traditional EIA system: it leads project proponents to develop large EOP treatment facilities, but once the main production lines are put into operation, proponents rarely have sufficient funds to operate the treatment facilities. This paper analyzes problems that exist in the EIA system in China, and it describes the Cleaner Production Index and Evaluation System, which is being proposed by environmental authorities in China to evaluate EIA projects based on cleaner production criteria. The paper also suggests how cleaner production analysis can be integrated into the EIA system to improve it.     

Setting boundaries of participation in environmental impact assessment

Public participation processes are touted as an effective way to increase the capacity and legitimacy of environmental assessment and the regulatory process that rely on them. Recent changes to the Canadian environmental assessment process narrowed the criteria for who can participate in environmental assessments from any who were interested to those who were most directly affected. This article examines the potential consequences of this change by exploring other areas of Canadian regulatory law where a similar directed affected test has been applied. This new standard risks institutionalizing the long-understood representational bias confronted by more diffuse interest like environmental protection. Restricting participation to the “directly affected” is far too narrow a test for processes like environmental assessment that are designed to determine the public interest.     

An integrated environmental and health performance quantification model for pre-occupancy phase of buildings in China

To comprehensively pre-evaluate the damages to both the environment and human health due to construction activities in China, this paper presents an integrated building environmental and health performance (EHP) assessment model based on the Building Environmental Performance Analysis System (BEPAS) and the Building Health Impact Analysis System (BHIAS) models and offers a new inventory data estimation method. The new model follows the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework and the inventory analysis step involves bill of quantity (BOQ) data collection, consumption data formation, and environmental profile transformation. The consumption data are derived from engineering drawings and quotas to conduct the assessment before construction for pre-evaluation. The new model classifies building impacts into three safeguard areas: ecosystems, natural resources and human health. Thus, this model considers environmental impacts as well as damage to human wellbeing. The monetization approach, distance-to-target method and panel method are considered as optional weighting approaches. Finally, nine residential buildings of different structural types are taken as case studies to test the operability of the integrated model through application. The results indicate that the new model can effectively pre-evaluate building EHP and the structure type significantly affects the performance of residential buildings.     

New approaches for assessment of occupational exposure to metals using on-site measurements

Traditional assessment of occupational exposure to metals typically involves static or personal aerosol sampling on a membrane filter followed by a laboratory determination of the metal content on the filter sample. These techniques give results with high accuracy and low detection limits. However, they all have a drawback in that, since the samples have to be analysed in a laboratory, the results will usually be obtained days or weeks after the sampling took place. Today there is available a new generation of portable electronic micro-balances and instruments for metal analysis based on X-ray fluorescence. These instruments will make on-site measurements of metal exposure possible, which opens the way for new approaches for assessment of occupational exposure to metals. In combination with high-flow pumps, short-term sampling is possible, which allows monitoring of the exposure variation during a work shift as well as the exposure during individual work tasks of short duration. Screening measurements and emission measurements are other examples of monitoring that are facilitated using on-site determinations. Measure control monitoring can effectively be performed using on-site measurements and is an effective tool in the assessment of workplace improvements. On-site determinations can also form an effective and pedagogic tool showing workers how to perform specific tasks and demonstrating the effectiveness of different measures intended to improve their work environment. Other examples are the assessment of skin exposure using aerosol deposition on pads and screening of contamination using bulk samples.     

Life cycle assessment as an analytical tool in strategic environmental assessment. Lessons learned from a case study on municipal energy planning in Sweden

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is explored as an analytical tool in strategic environmental assessment (SEA), illustrated by case where a previously developed SEA process was applied to municipal energy planning in Sweden. The process integrated decision-making tools for scenario planning, public participation and environmental assessment. This article describes the use of LCA for environmental assessment in this context, with focus on methodology and practical experiences. While LCA provides a systematic framework for the environmental assessment and a wider systems perspective than what is required in SEA, LCA cannot address all aspects of environmental impact required, and therefore needs to be complemented by other tools. The integration of LCA with tools for public participation and scenario planning posed certain methodological challenges, but provided an innovative approach to designing the scope of the environmental assessment and defining and assessing alternatives.     

Linking Hydrogeological and Ecological Tools for an Integrated River Catchment Assessment

Ecological (biological and hydrochemical assessment) and hydrogeological (vulnerability and pollution risk mapping) tools have been combined to assess the ecological quality and hydrogeological vulnerability of an agricultural river basin. In addition, the applicability of the recently developed vulnerability assessment approach (COP method) in the particular environmental conditions was tested by comparing its results with hydroecological assessment tools (i.e., pollution metrics). Five sampling sites were selected and sampled for benthic macroinvertebrates and physicochemical variables during summer and spring. Overall, sites ranged from moderate to poor ecological quality. The results illustrated that 26% of the study area was of moderate pollution risk, while 65% was classified as of low and very low risk zones. However, the higher elevation zones where calcareous rock formations are encountered presented moderate to high pollution risk that was accredited by the ecological quality assessment. Pollution metrics facilitated from hydrochemical analysis indicated a significant association with groundwater vulnerability, thus validating vulnerability and risk estimations. This study indicated that the particular groundwater pollution risk mapping methodology and the water quality assessment indices can be well combined to provide an integrated evaluation tool at a catchment scale.