Risk management and integrated assessment

Integrated Assessment (IA) is the pursuit of a research program generated by the limitations of traditional forms of risk management. This claim can be justified by the following argument. Over the last decades, analysts and practitioners have brought to maturity a large array of tools for risk management. Most of them rely on combining judgments of utility with judgments of probability. This is the approach of the Rational Actor Paradigm (RAP). With many environmental problems, however, RAP‐based tools have run into considerable practical and theoretical difficulties. In response to these difficulties, a series of alternative approaches to practical risk management and to the theoretical understanding of risk have been elaborated. They try to embed the rational choices of individual actors studied by RAP into a broader framework of social rationality. This task can be approached by distinguishing situations where an actor holds unambiguous judgments of preference and probability from situations characterized by ambivalent judgments. RAP can handle the former, but not the latter. Problems whose management requires a combination of widely differing scientific disciplines are especially likely to involve ambivalent judgments of probability. The study of such problems constitutes the research program of integrated assessment. It involves three main tasks: developing IA models which can represent ambivalent expectations and evaluations, developing IA models which use such representations to study non‐marginal changes of social systems, and developing procedures of participatory IA which enable researchers to engage in an iterative exchange with various stakeholders. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.     

Reduction and avoidance of lubricant mist demands an integrated assessment approach

A case study to identify major factors for lubricant mist exposure covered 15 metal machining sites. The investigation included milling, turning, drilling and grinding applications. Systematic analysis considered all relevant data concerning the machine tool, the lubricant and the suction plant. The efficiency of the implemented maintenance program at the installed filter systems was checked by concentration measurements immediately before and after service. All performed measurements of lubricant aerosol and vapor loads upstream and downstream of the installed filter systems were carried out according to VDI 2066 and BIA 3110, respectively. The selection criteria for the sites to be investigated, the systematic nature of the data acquisition and the procedure of the analysis are demonstrated in detail by performing comparisons between selected applications using emulsions and those employing straight oil for lubrication. The results of the study identify recirculation of ventilated air as the major source of workplace exposure to airborne lubricant emissions. More than 60% of the demisters investigated emit air at total lubricant loads (aerosols and vapor) above the limit of 20 mg m-3 at any time of operation; which also means immediately after service. A common reason for exceeded aerosol loads in recirculated air is e.g. the fact that the type of filter system applied is often not suitable for the separation problem. Loads of lubricant vapor are usually higher at the processes which use water emulsions as lubricant. In a quarter of the cases the limits were exceeded solely due to high vapor loads even immediately after service. The exposure can be reduced by replacing the lubricant, installation of a vapor separation plant or avoiding air recirculation. Maintenance time of the demisting system and aerosol separation efficiency of state-of-the-art demisting systems can be expanded by implementation of enhanced preliminary filter stages. This study confirms that appropriate service measures lower both aerosol emissions and lubricant vapor concentrations due to the reduction of exposed oil-wetted surfaces. The performed measurements show no significant relationship between loads of airborne lubricants and the type of machining process. Therefore, investigations at a much more detailed level have to be performed. However, the individual assessment of any workplace due to the complex situation remains essential.     

Uncertainty in integrated assessment: A social scientific perspective

In the context of integrated assessment, the authors address the issue of uncertainty and subjectivity in modelling. In relating bias to different perspectives, the authors introduce the methodology of multiple model routes, which are reflections of different perceptions of reality and various policy preferences. As heuristic they use three perspectives, which are distinguished in cultural theory. The article describes case-studies on the population and health controversy in order to illustrate the possibilities of their approach. The article concludes with discussing the lessons learned by applying this methodology.     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR. Analyzing fire effects has to date presented a major challenge to integrated risk assessments, due to a limited understanding of the type and magnitude of changes wrought by wildfire to ecological and other nonmarket values. This work advances wildfire effects analysis, recognizing knowledge uncertainty and appropriately managing it through the use of an expert systems approach. Specifically, this work entailed consultation with 10 fire and fuels program management officials from federal agencies with fire management responsibilities in order to define quantitative resource response relationships as a function of fire intensity. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool, using the state of Oregon as a case study.     

Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term.     

Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

Water quality assessment using integrated modeling and monitoring in Narva Bay, Gulf of Finland

A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model was used for the assessment of water quality in Narva Bay during one biologically active season. Narva Bay is located in the south-eastern Gulf of Finland. Narva River with a catchment’s area covering part of Russia and Estonia discharges water and nutrients to Narva Bay. The ecological model includes phytoplankton carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, chlorophyll a, zooplankton, detritus carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, inorganic nitrogen, inorganic phosphorus and dissolved oxygen as state variables. Both the hydrodynamic and ecosystem models were validated using a limited number of measurements. The hydrodynamic model validation included comparison of time series of currents and temperature and salinity profiles. The ecological model results were compared with the monitoring data of phytoplankton biomass, total nitrogen and phosphorus and dissolved oxygen. The comparison of hydrodynamic parameters, phytoplankton biomass, surface layer total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen and near-bottom layer total nitrogen was reasonable. Time series of spatially mean values and standard deviations of selected parameters were calculated for the whole Narva Bay. Combining model results and monitoring data, the characteristic concentrations of phytoplankton biomass, total nitrogen and phosphorus and near-bottom dissolved oxygen were estimated. Phytoplankton biomass and total phosphorus showed seasonal variations, of 0.6–1.1 and 0.022–0.032 mg/l, respectively, during spring bloom, 0.1–0.3 and 0.015–0.025 mg/l in summer and 0.2–0.6 and 0.017–0.035 mg/l during autumn bloom. Total nitrogen and near-bottom oxygen concentrations were rather steady, being 0.25–0.35 and 2–6 mg/l, respectively. The total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations show that according to the classification of Estonian coastal waters, Narva Bay water belongs to a good water quality class.     

An integrated assessment modeling framework for assessing primary and secondary impacts from carbon dioxide stabilization scenarios

As the nations of the world negotiate future controls on greenhouse gas emissions, a critical environmental policy issue becomes understanding the multiple environmental consequences of these controls. Here we describe an integrated assessment model for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of large-scale environmental initiatives and apply this model to climate change mitigation. Our analysis shows that reductions in global warming will be accompanied by reductions in ozone depletion, acid rain and mercury emissions, and desulfurization waste generation. We also conclude that the largest collateral benefits from reducing global climate change may be in the developing world. This result is critical since it is the developing nations who ultimately control the long-term success of any climate stabilization strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Environmental impact assessment of a mixed tropical hardwood integrated pulp and paper mill— a case study

An overview of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for a mixed tropical hardwood integrated pulp and paper mill in Sabah, Malaysia, is presented. The EIA before the mill construction included, among other things, a detailed baseline study and also environmental impact predictions based on certain mill design and pollution abatement measures. Subsequent to mill construction (during the operational stage), data were gathered to determine the quality of the ambient air as well as the effluent and the receiving bay water quality. These post-construction monitoring results were then compared with the earlier impact predictions, and showed, in general, a good correspondence.     

Determining the global significance of local and regional mitigation strategies: Setting the scene with global integrated assessment models

Because of the importance and complexity of the processes involved in the response of land cover and land use to changing environmental conditions, other approaches are required to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation options. One such approach is provided by the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE 2. This article presents the structure and some of the underlying assumptions of IMAGE 2, which illustrates the importance of feedback processes in evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options with respect to land use. Although models such as IMAGE 2 are unsuitable for local and national mitigation evaluations, they can be used to define the regional and global constraints of the smaller scale assessments.     

Scientist–stakeholder collaboration in integrated assessment of climate change: lessons from a case study of Northwest Canada

Research on the climate change issue has generally focused on uncertainties in climate projections and calculation of mitigation costs. Most integrated assessment (IA) efforts have been directed at the mitigation component. The problem of climate change, however, is really about the potential effects on ecosystems, resources, and societies that depend on them. As illustrated by experiences from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, a case study from Northwest Canada, these effects will be unique to each region and country. Many of these will be indirect, including region specific thresholds, vulnerabilities and adaptations which may not be included in sectoral analyses. Science can define some of the “What if” aspects of climate change, but the regional “So what” and “What should be done” questions are largely unanswered and subject to intense debate in various political fora. IA needs to recognize the multiobjective and multistakeholder aspects of vulnerabilities, risks, and potential responses to climate change. IA could provide a more holistic analysis of the regional impacts dimension of climate change by including both modeling and non‐modeling approaches, and incorporating institutional and stakeholder issues that do not readily lend themselves to economic analyses.