Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.     

Dramatic declines in mussel bed community diversity: response to climate change?

Mussel beds along the wave-exposed coast of the eastern North Pacific Ocean serve as an important habitat, harboring a high diversity of species. A comparison of California mussel bed community diversity in 2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s) revealed large declines (mean loss 58.9%), including some declines >141 species (approximately 80% loss). Concurrent work revealed inconsistent changes in mussel populations (biomass and bed thickness) along the California coast, suggesting that diversity declines may be related to large-scale processes rather than local habitat destruction. Potential factors causing declines in mussel community diversity are discussed, with regional climate change associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate change induced alterations of ecological interactions and biological processes suggested as likely causes. Although extensive literature has predicted the potential effects of climate change on global diversity, this study is one of the few examples of declines attributed to climate change.     

Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?

Using anomalies calculated from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate predictions we developed scenarios of future fire weather, fuel moisture and fire occurrence and used these as the inputs to a fire growth and suppression simulation model for the province of Ontario, Canada. The goal of this study was to combine GCM predictions with the fire growth and suppression model to examine potential changes in area burned in Ontario due to climate change, while accounting for the large fire suppression activities of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Results indicate a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040 and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 scenario; smaller increases were found for the A1b and B1 scenarios. These changes are driven by increased fire weather conducive to large fire growth, and increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack: for the Canadian GCM's business-as-usual (A2) scenario, escaped fire frequency increased by 34% by 2040 and 92% by the end of the 21st century. Incorporating more detail on large fire growth than previous studies, our model predicts higher area burned under climate change than do these previous studies, as large numbers of high-intensity fires overwhelm suppression capacity.     

Exploring local stakeholders’ perceptions of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Ebro delta

This paper analyzes local stakeholders’ perception of the effects of, and vulnerability to, climate change in the case of the Ebro delta (NW Mediterranean Sea). The specific survey carried out amongst relevant local stakeholders showed a high level of concern about the current and future effects of climate change on the physical and socio-economic structures of the Ebro delta. The results of the survey also showed that there is a general agreement on the lack of social and political awareness of the problems that climate change can create in the delta in the near future, as well as a lack of adaptation strategies (only suggested or already being implemented). Finally, the conclusions of the study mainly rely on the different adaptation strategies proposed by previous studies. If any of these strategies is to be developed, there is a clear need for a firm will - from the local, regional and national political authorities and stakeholders - that should allow the development of a new manner of governance that until now it has not been possible to develop in the Ebro delta.     

How hot for how long? The potential role of heat intensity and duration in moderating the beneficial effects of an ecosystem engineer on rocky shores

Studies of the importance of ecosystem engineers have focused on their benefit to biodiversity through ameliorating environmental stress, without understanding the exact benefits gained by associated organisms. On monsoonal tropical shores, species experience strong seasonality in environmental conditions from almost temperate winters to tropical summers when mass mortalities can occur during daytime emersion. The limpet, Cellana grata, associates with an ecosystem engineer, the barnacle Tetraclita japonica, in summer, but not in winter. To understand the benefits of this association, physiological responses (heart rates and osmotic responses) of the limpet either amongst Tetraclita or on open rock surfaces were investigated under three environmental conditions in a laboratory mesocosm: awash (non-stressed), low (30 °C) and high thermal stress (40 °C) of varying durations (3 or 6 h). In general, at 30 °C, limpets showed similar physiological responses under all conditions for both exposure durations. After 6 h at 40 °C, however, all limpets on open rock surfaces died, whereas those associated with barnacles survived. The surviving limpets experienced similar levels of stress as those exposed to 40 °C on open rock surfaces for half the time (3 h), showing that both the level and duration of stress were important. Limpets, therefore, gain benefits from engineering species when conditions are extreme or stress is prolonged. Under low temperatures or for short durations (e.g. winter), associating with barnacles does not provide physiological benefits. Understanding how, and to what extent, associates benefit from ecosystem engineers highlights how close the margin between survival and mortality can be when conditions are extreme.     

How important are uncertainty and dynamics for environmental and climate policy? Some analytics

We introduce ten papers on sustainable resource dynamics. In addition, we provide analytical results on the effect of stochastic damages on optimal economic growth, the effects of habits and loss aversion on the cost-benefit discount rate, and the effect of a carbon budget and carbon capture and storage (CCS) on optimal investment in technical change.     

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Governing trade-offs in ecosystem services and disservices to achieve human–wildlife coexistence

Sustaining wildlife populations, which provide both ecosystem services and disservices, represents a worldwide conservation challenge. The ecosystem services and Ostrom's social–ecological systems frameworks have been adopted across natural and social sciences to characterize benefits from nature. Despite their generalizability, individually they do not include explicit tools for addressing the sustainable management of many wildlife populations. For instance, Ostrom's framework does not specifically address competing perspectives on wildlife, whereas the ecosystem services framework provides a limited representation of the social and governance context wherein such competing perspectives are embedded. We developed a unified social–ecological framework of ecosystem disservices and services (SEEDS) that advances both frameworks by explicitly acknowledging the importance of competing wildlife perspectives embedded in the social and governance contexts. The SEEDS framework emulates the hierarchical structure of Ostrom's social–ecological systems, but adds subsystems reflecting heterogeneous stakeholder views and experiences of wildlife-based services and disservices. To facilitate operationalizing SEEDS and further broader analyses across human–wildlife systems, we devised a list of variables to describe SEEDS subsystems, such as types and level of services and disservices, cost and benefit sharing, and social participation of stakeholders. Steps to implement SEEDS involve engaging local communities and stakeholders to define the subsystems, analyze interactions and outcomes, and identify leverage points and actions to remedy unwanted outcomes. These steps connect SEEDS with other existing approaches in social–ecological research and can guide analyses across systems or within individual systems to provide new insights and management options for sustainable human–wildlife coexistence.     

How can government environmental enforcement and corporate environmental responsibility consensus reduce environmental emergencies?

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Environmental emergencies have become a severe challenge to human society due to their great harmfulness, which seriously restrict the sustainable...     

Is ISO 14001 a gateway to more advanced voluntary action? The case of green supply chain management

Using Japanese facility-level data, we estimate the effects of ISO 14001 certification on the promotion of more advanced practices, namely green supply chain management (GSCM). Our results show that ISO 14001 promotes GSCM practices. Facilities with environmental management systems (EMS) certified to ISO 14001 are 40% more likely to assess their suppliers' environmental performance and 50% more likely to require that their suppliers undertake specific environmental practices. Further, government programs that encourage voluntary EMS adoption indirectly promote GSCM practices. These programs increase the probabilities that facilities will assess their suppliers' environmental performance and require suppliers to undertake specific environmental practices by 7% and 8%, respectively. Combined, these findings suggest that there may be significant but previously unnoticed spillover effects of ISO 14001 and government promotion of voluntary action.     

How do larvae attach to a solid in a laminar flow?

A hydrodynamic model explaining the mechanism of contact of marine larvae in vertical flows is presented. Two hydrodynamic factors—flow vorticity and larval self-propulsion—are the key components in the mathematical model. It is shown that flow vorticity causes a larva to rotate and change the direction of self-thrust, thus leading to its migration across the mean flow. The latter motion is of an oscillatory nature. Contact will be enabled only for sufficiently large amplitudes of oscillations. Simple expressions for the probability of initial contact are obtained for two-dimensional Couette and Poiseuille flows. The three-dimensional motion of a larva in a tube is studied using the Monte-Carlo simulations. It is shown that contact probability depends mainly on the ratio of the characteristic flow velocity and the larva’s swimming speed. The theoretical results compare favorably with available experimental data. Possible applications of the method and results presented here to the classical problem of larval attachment to bodies of general geometry are briefly discussed in the concluding section.     

Mortality and predation in ecosystem models: is it important how these are expressed?

The effects of the form of the grazing and mortality terms used in plankton models are well known. The same cannot be said for ecosystem models. As ecosystem models become more popular more needs to be known about the effects of model formulation on model behaviour and performance. The impact of the form of the grazing response function and mortality terms used in a biogeochemical ecosystem model are considered here. We show that in the large and inter-linked webs used in ecosystem models, model behaviour is far more sensitive to the form of the grazing term than to that of the mortality terms that close the modelled food web.When using biogeochemical ecosystem models in shallow marine ecosystems, the most dynamic and sophisticated functional responses describing grazing require more parameters and validation than the simpler Holling disk equation, but usually still lead to the same general conclusions about the system state and the effects of changes in forcing functions. Thus, the use of more complex functional responses is not necessarily warranted in many cases. Similarly, the extra effort and data required to explicitly represent the top predators (sharks, mammals and birds) is not necessary if they are not the focus of the study. A quadratic mortality term applied to intermediate predators (such as piscivores) is sufficient to achieve plausible model behaviour. It should be noted, however, that some degree of sophistication is required in the grazing and mortality terms. Use of simple linear functional responses and mortality terms is unsuitable for models used to consider a range of nutrient loading or harvesting scenarios.     

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?: Detecting elevational shifts using response curve shapes

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either “move, adapt or die”. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.     

How stable are personalities? A multivariate view of behavioural variation over long and short timescales in the sheepshead swordtail,Xiphophorus birchmanni

Many studies have revealed repeatable (among-individual) variance in behavioural traits consistent with variation in animal personality; however, these studies are often conducted using data collected over single sampling periods, most commonly with short time intervals between observations. Consequently, it is not clear whether population-level patterns of behavioural variation are stable across longer timescales and/or multiple sampling periods or whether individuals maintain consistent ranking of behaviours (and/or personality) over their lifetimes. Here, we address these questions in a captive-bred population of a tropical freshwater poeciliid fish, Xiphophorus birchmanni. Using a multivariate approach, we estimate the among-individual variance-covariance matrix (I), for a set of behavioural traits repeatedly assayed in two different experimental contexts (open-field trials, emergence and exploration trials) over long-term (56 days between observations) and short-term (4-day observation interval) time periods. In both long- and short-term data sets, we find that traits are repeatable and the correlation structure of I is consistent with a latent axis of variation in boldness. While there are some qualitative differences in the way individual traits contribute to boldness and a tendency towards higher repeatabilities in the short-term study, overall, we find that population-level patterns of among-individual behavioural (co)variance to be broadly similar over both time frames. At the individual level, we find evidence that short-term studies can be informative for an individual’s behavioural phenotype over longer (e.g. lifetime) periods. However, statistical support is somewhat mixed and, at least for some observed behaviours, relative rankings of individual performance change significantly between data sets.     

How is activity distributed among and within tasks in Temnothorax ants?

How social insect colonies behave results from the actions of their workers. Individual variation among workers in their response to various tasks is necessary for the division of labor within colonies. A worker may be active in only a subset of tasks (specialist), perform all tasks (elite), or exhibit no particular pattern of task activity (idiosyncratic). Here we examine how worker activity is distributed among and within tasks in ants of the genus Temnothorax. We found that workers exhibited elitism within a situation, i.e., in particular sets of tasks, such as those associated with emigrations, nest building, or foraging. However, there was weak specialization for working in a particular situation. A few workers exhibited elitism across all situations, i.e., high performance in all tasks in all situations. Within any particular task, the distribution of activity among workers was skewed, with few ants performing most of the work and most ants performing very little of the work. We further found that workers persisted in their task preference over days, with the same individuals performing most of the work day after day. Interestingly, colonies were robust to the removal of these highly active workers; they were replaced by other individuals that were previously less active. This replacement was not short-lived; when the removed individuals were returned to the colony, not all of them resumed their prior high activity levels, and not all the workers that replaced them reduced their activity. Thus, even though some workers specialize in tasks within a particular situation and are persistent in performing them, task allocation in a colony is plastic and colonies can withstand removal of highly active individuals.     

Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.