Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Fishing the line near marine reserves in single and multispecies fisheries.

Throughout the world "fishing the line" is a frequent harvesting tactic in communities where no-take marine reserves are designated. This practice of concentrating fishing effort at the boundary of a marine reserve is predicated upon the principle of spillover, the net export of stock from the marine reserve to the surrounding unprotected waters. We explore the consequences and optimality of fishing the line using a spatially explicit theoretical model. We show that fishing the line: (1) is part of the optimal effort distribution near no-take marine reserves with mobile species regardless of the cooperation level among harvesters; (2) has a significant impact on the spatial patterns of catch per unit effort (CPUE) and fish density both within and outside of the reserve; and (3) can enhance total population size and catch simultaneously under a limited set of conditions for overexploited populations. Additionally, we explore the consequences of basing the spatial distribution of fishing effort for a multispecies fishery upon the optimality of the most mobile species that exhibits the greatest spillover. Our results show that the intensity of effort allocated to fishing the line should instead be based upon more intermediate rates of mobility within the targeted community. We conclude with a comparison between model predictions and empirical findings from a density gradient study of two important game fish in the vicinity of a no-take marine-life refuge on Santa Catalina Island, California (USA). These results reveal the need for empirical studies to account for harvester behavior and suggest that the implications of spatial discontinuities such as fishing the line should be incorporated into marine-reserve design.     

Functional response of sport divers to lobsters with application to fisheries management.

Fishery managers must understand the dynamics of fishers and their prey to successfully predict the outcome of management actions. We measured the impact of a two-day exclusively recreational fishery on Caribbean spiny lobster in the Florida Keys, USA, over large spatial scales (>100 km) and multiple years and used a theoretical, predator-prey functional response approach to identify whether or not sport diver catch rates were density-independent (type I) or density-dependent (type II or III functional response), and if catch rates were saturated (i.e., reached an asymptote) at relatively high lobster densities. We then describe how this predator-prey framework can be applied to fisheries management for spiny lobster and other species. In the lower Keys, divers exhibited a type-I functional response, whereby they removed a constant and relatively high proportion of lobsters (0.74-0.84) across all pre-fishing-season lobster densities. Diver fishing effort increased in a linear manner with lobster prey densities, as would be expected with a type-I functional response, and was an order of magnitude lower in the upper Keys than lower Keys. There were numerous instances in the upper Keys where the density of lobsters actually increased from before to after the fishing season, suggesting some type of "spill-in effect" from surrounding diver-disturbed areas. With the exception of isolated reefs in the upper Keys, the proportion of lobsters removed by divers was density independent (type-I functional response) and never reached saturation at natural lobster densities. Thus, recreational divers have a relatively simple predatory response to spiny lobster, whereby catch rates increase linearly with lobster density such that catch is a reliable indicator of abundance. Although diver predation is extremely high (approximately 80%), diver predation pressure is not expected to increase proportionally with a decline in lobster density (i.e., a depensatory response), which could exacerbate local extinction. Furthermore, management actions that reduce diver effort should have a concomitant and desired reduction in catch. The recreational diver-lobster predator-prey construct in this study provides a useful predictive framework to apply to both recreational and commercial fisheries, and on which to build as management actions are implemented.     

Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery

Abstract: Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation‐corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long‐term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social‐ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies.     

Temperate marine reserves enhance targeted but not untargeted fishes in multiple no-take MPAs.

Although many papers report the effects of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs or reserves), scientifically rigorous empirical studies are rare, particularly for temperate reef fishes. We evaluated the responses of fish populations to protection from fishing in reserves by comparing densities and sizes inside and outside of five no-take reserves in southern California, USA. Our results are robust because we compared responses across multiple rocky-reef reserves in two different years and controlled for possible site differences by (a) ensuring that habitat characteristics were the same inside and outside reserves, and (b) sampling species that are not targeted, which would not be expected to have a direct response to fishing. We compared fish density and size and calculated biomass and egg production across all five sites. Fishes targeted by recreational and/or commercial fisheries consistently exhibited increases in mean density (150%), size (30%), biomass (440%), and egg production (730%) inside reserves. Reserve effects were greatest for legal-sized targeted fishes: significantly greater densities were found exclusively inside reserves for targeted species (580%), the largest size classes existed only inside reserves, and mean biomass was 1000% higher. These responses were unlikely to have been caused by habitat differences because there were no significant differences in habitat characteristics between reserve and control locations. Densities of non-targeted species did not differ between reserve and non-reserve locations, further supporting the conclusions that differences in targeted species between reserve and control locations were due to harvesting rather than site-specific effects. Although MPAs cannot replace traditional fisheries management, the concentration of increased biomass and egg production is a unique MPA benefit that serves both reserves and fisheries. Scientifically rigorous studies that include multiple reserves, such as this study, are needed to inform management and policy decisions.     

Science and Society: Marine Reserve Design for the California Channel Islands

Abstract:  We explored the interaction of science and society in attempts to restore impaired marine ecosystems in Channel Islands National Park and National Marine Sanctuary, California. Deteriorating resource conditions triggered a community's desire to change public policy. Channel Islands National Park, one of 40 marine protected areas in the U.S. National Park System, was proclaimed a national monument in 1938 and expanded substantially in 1980 by an act of Congress. Collapse of marine life populations and loss of 80% of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in the park between 1980 and 1998 showed that habitat and water quality protection alone had not secured sustainable ocean ecosystems or fisheries. The failed fishery management strategies and practices prompted formal community and agency requests in 1998 for a network of reserves protected from direct fishing impacts to serve as marine recovery areas. A 2-year attempt to build a community consensus based on science for a reserve network successfully identified recovery goals for fisheries, biodiversity, education, economics, and heritage values. Nevertheless, the community group failed to garner unanimous support for a specific reserve network to achieve those common goals. The group submitted a recommendation, supported by 14 of 16 members, to state and federal authorities in 2001 for action in their respective jurisdictions. California adopted the half of the network in state waters in 2003. This process exposed the socioeconomic factors involved in the design of marine protected areas that can be negotiated successfully among groups of people and factors determined by nature that cannot be negotiated. Understanding the differences among the factors was crucial in reaching consensus and changing public policy.     

Poaching, enforcement, and the efficacy of marine reserves.

Marine reserves are promoted as an effective supplement to traditional fishery management techniques of harvest quotas and effort limitation. However, quantitative fishery models have ignored the impact of noncompliance (poaching). Here we link a model of a harvested fish population to a game-theoretic representation of fisherman behavior to quantify the effect of poaching on fishery yield and the enforcement effort required to maintain any desired level of reserve effectiveness. Although higher fish densities inside reserves will typically entice fishermen to poach, we show that the initial investment in enforcement efforts provides the greatest return on maintaining the benefits of the reserve to the fishery. Furthermore, we find that poaching eliminates the positive effect of fish dispersal on yield that is predicted by traditional models that ignore fisherman behavior. Our results broaden a fundamental insight from previous models of marine reserves, the effective equivalence of the harvest quota and reserve fraction, to the more realistic scenario in which fishermen attempt to maximize their economic payoffs.     

Implications of Urbanization for Artisanal Parrotfish Fisheries in the Western Solomon Islands

Abstract: Increasing migration into urbanized centers in the Solomon Islands poses a great threat to adjacent coral reef fisheries because of negative effects on the fisheries and because it further erodes customary management systems. Parrotfish fisheries are of particular importance because the feeding habits of parrotfish (scrape and excavate coral) are thought to be critical to the resilience of coral reefs and to maintaining coral reef health within marine protected areas. We investigated the ecological impact of localized subsistence and artisanal fishing pressure on parrotfish fisheries in Gizo Town, Western Solomon Islands, by analyzing the density and size distribution of parrotfish with an underwater visual census (UVC), recall diary (i.e., interviews with fishers), and creel surveys to independently assess changes in abundance and catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) over 2 years. We then compared parrotfish data from Gizo Town with equivalent data from sites open to and closed to fishing in Kida and Nusa Hope villages, which have different customary management regimes. Results indicated a gradient of customary management effectiveness. Parrotfish abundance was greater in customary management areas closed to fishing, especially with regard to larger fish sizes, than in areas open to fishing. The decline in parrotfish abundance from 2004 to 2005 in Gizo was roughly the same magnitude as the difference in abundance decline between inside and outside customary management marine reserves. Our results highlight how weak forms of customary management can result in the rapid decline of vulnerable fisheries around urbanized regions, and we present examples in which working customary management systems (Kinda and Nusa Hope) can positively affect the conservation of parrotfish—and reef fisheries in general—in the highly biodiverse Coral Triangle region.     

Marine reserves reduce risk of climate-driven phase shift by reinstating size- and habitat-specific trophic interactions

Spatial closures in the marine environment are widely accepted as effective conservation and fisheries management tools. Given increasing human-derived stressors acting on marine ecosystems, the need for such effective action is urgently clear. Here we explore mechanisms underlying the utility of marine reserves to reinstate trophic dynamics and to increase resilience of kelp beds against climate-driven phase shift to sea urchin barrens on the rapidly warming Tasmanian east coast. Tethering and tagging experiments were used to examine size- and shelter-specific survival of the range-extending sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) translocated to reefs inside and outside no-take Tasmanian marine reserves. Results show that survival rates of C. rodgersii exposed on flat reef substratum by tethering were approximately seven times (small urchins 10.1 times; large urchins 6.1 times) lower on protected reef within marine reserve boundaries (high abundance of large predatory-capable lobsters) compared to fished reef (large predatory lobsters absent). When able to seek crevice shelter, tag-resighting models estimated that mortality rates of C. rodgersii were lower overall but remained 3.3 times (small urchins 2.1 times; large urchins 6.4 times) higher in the presence of large lobsters inside marine reserves, with higher survival of small urchins owing to greater access to crevices relative to large urchins. Indeed, shelter was 6.3 times and 3.1 times more important to survival of small and large urchins, respectively, on reserved relative to fished reef. Experimental results corroborate with surveys throughout the range extension region, showing greater occurrence of overgrazing on high-relief rocky habitats where shelter for C. rodgersii is readily available. This shows that ecosystem impacts mediated by range extension of such habitat-modifying organisms will be heterogeneous in space, and that marine systems with a more natural complement of large and thus functional predators, as achievable within no-take reserves, will minimize local risk of phase shifts by reinstating size and habitat-specific predator-prey dynamics eroded by fishing. Importantly, our findings also highlight the crucial need to account for the influence of size dynamics and habitat complexity on rates of key predator-prey interactions when managing expectations of ecosystem-level responses within marine reserve boundaries.     

Comanagement Practices Enhance Fisheries in Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Fishing activities worldwide have dramatically affected marine fish stocks and ecosystems. Marine protected areas (MPAs) with no-take zones may enhance fisheries, but empirical evidence of this is scant. We conducted a 4-year survey of fish catches around and within an MPA that was previously fully closed to fishing and then partially reopened under regulated comanaged fishing. In collaboration with the fishers and the MPA authority, we set the fishing effort and selected the gear to limit fishing impact on key fish predators, juvenile fish stage, and benthic communities and habitats. Within an adaptive comanagement framework, fishers agreed to reduce fishing effort if symptoms of overfishing were detected. We analyzed the temporal trends of catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of the whole species assemblages and CPUE of the four most valuable and frequent species observed inside the opened buffer zone and outside the MPA investigated. After the comanaged opening, CPUE first declined and then stabilized at levels more than twice that of catches obtained outside the MPA. Our results suggest that working closely with fishers can result in greater fisheries catches. Partial protection of coastal areas together with adaptive comanagement involving fishers, scientists, and managers can effectively achieve conservation and fishery management goals and benefit fishing communities and alleviate overfishing.     

When are no-take zones an economically optimal fishery management strategy?

Discussions on the use of marine reserves (no-take zones) and, more generally, spatial management of fisheries are, for the most part, devoid of analyses that consider the ecological and economic effects simultaneously. To fill this gap, we develop a two-patch ecological-economic model to investigate the effects of spatial management on fishery profits. Because the fishery effects of spatial management depend critically on the nature of the ecological connectivity, our model includes both juvenile and adult movement, with density dependence in settlement differentiating the two types of dispersal. Rather than imposing a reserve on our system and measuring its effect on profits, we ask: "When does setting catch levels to maximize system-wide profits imply that a reserve should be created?" Closing areas to fishing is an economically optimal solution when the value derived from spillover from the reserve outweighs the value of fishing in the patch. The condition, while simple to state in summary form, is complex to interpret because it depends on the settlement success of the dispersing organisms, the nature of the costs of the fishing, the economic and ecological heterogeneity of the system, the discount rate, and growth characteristics of the fish population. The condition is more likely to be satisfied when the closed area is a net exporter of biomass and has higher costs of fishing, and for fish populations with density-independent settlement ("adult movement") than with density-dependent settlement ("larval dispersal"). Rather surprisingly, there are circumstances whereby closing low biological productivity areas, and even sometimes low cost areas to fish, can result in greater fishing profits than when both areas are open to fishing.     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

Incorporation of Recreational Fishing Effort into Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Theoretical models of marine protected areas (MPAs) that explore benefits to fisheries or biodiversity conservation often assume a dynamic pool of fishing effort. For instance, effort is homogenously distributed over areas from which subsets of reserves are chosen. I tested this and other model assumptions with a case study of the multiple-use Jervis Bay Marine Park. Prior to zoning of the park I conducted 166 surveys of the park's recreational fisheries, plotting the location of 16,009 anglers. I converted these plots into diagrams of fishing effort and analyzed correlates between fishing and habitat and the effect of two reserve designs—the draft and final zoning plans of the park—on the 15 fisheries observed. Fisheries were strongly correlated with particular habitats and had negatively skewed and often bimodal spatial distribution. The second mode of intensely fished habitat could be 6 SD greater than the fishery's mean allocation of effort by area. In the draft-zoning plan, sanctuary zone (no-take) area and potential subduction of fishing effort were similar. In the final plan, which was altered in response to public comment, the area of sanctuary zone increased, and the impact on fishing effort decreased. In only one case was a fishery's most intensely targeted location closed to fishing. Because of the discriminating manner with which fishers target habitats, if simple percentage targets are used for planning, sanctuary location can be adjusted to avoid existing fishing effort. According to modeled outcomes, the implication of this may be diminished reserve effectiveness. To address this, reserve area should be implicitly linked to subducted fishing effort when promoting or modeling MPAs.     

What are we protecting? Fisher behavior and the unintended consequences of spatial closures as a fishery management tool

Spatial closures like marine protected areas (MPAs) are prominent tools for ecosystem-based management in fisheries. However, the adaptive behavior of fishermen, the apex predator in the ecosystem, to MPAs may upset the balance of fishing impacts across species. While ecosystem-based management (EBM) emphasizes the protection of all species in the environment, the weakest stock often dominates management attention. We use data before and after the implementation of large spatial closures in a North Pacific trawl fishery to show how closures designed for red king crab protection spurred dramatic increases in Pacific halibut bycatch due to both direct displacement effects and indirect effects from adaptations in fishermen's targeting behavior. We identify aspects of the ecological and economic context of the fishery that contributed to these surprising behaviors, noting that many multispecies fisheries are likely to share these features. Our results highlight the need either to anticipate the behavioral adaptations of fishermen across multiple species in reserve design, a form of implementation error, or to design management systems that are robust to these adaptations. Failure to do so may yield patterns of fishing effort and mortality that undermine the broader objectives of multispecies management and potentially alter ecosystems in profound ways.     

Marine reserves,fisheries ban,and 20 years of positive change in a coral reef ecosystem

By 2004, Belize was exhibiting classic fishing down of the food web. Groupers (Serranidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) were scarce and fisheries turned to parrotfishes (Scarinae), leading to a 41% decline in their biomass. Several policies were enacted in 2009–2010, including a moratorium on fishing parrotfish and a new marine park with no-take areas. Using a 20-year time series on reef fish and benthos, we evaluated the impact of these policies approximately 10 years after their implementation. Establishment of the Southwater Caye Marine Reserve led to a recovery of snapper at 2 out of 3 sites, but there was no evidence of recovery outside the reserve. Snapper populations in an older reserve continued to increase, implying that at least 9 years is required for their recovery. Despite concerns over the feasibility of banning parrotfish harvest once it has become a dominant fin fishery, parrotfishes returned and exceeded biomass levels prior to the fishery. The majority of these changes involved an increase in parrotfish density; species composition and adult body size generally exhibited little change. Recovery occurred equally well in reserves and areas open to other forms of fishing, implying strong compliance. Temporal trends in parrotfish grazing intensity were strongly negatively associated with the cover of macroalgae, which by 2018 had fallen to the lowest levels observed since measurements began in 1998. Coral populations remained resilient and continued to exhibit periods of net recovery after disturbance. We found that a moratorium on parrotfish harvesting is feasible and appears to help constrain macroalgae, which can otherwise impede coral resilience.     

Edge-Core Effects and the Effectiveness of Traditional Reserves in Conservation: Eurasian Badgers in Doñana National Park

Abstract: High rates of human-mediated mortality on animals are frequently reported inside protected areas, especially near their borders, so the overall effect of reserves on animal conservation is not usually known. To determine the effect of a traditional reserve (Doñana National Park, southwestern Spain) on the Eurasian badger (   Meles meles ), a medium sized carnivore, we studied mortality causes and rates, with the aid of radiotelemetry, in two populations inside the reserve, one closer to the border than the other. Human-related mortality ( poaching and road kills) was by far the most common cause of mortality (85% of deaths recorded). The average annual mortality rate due to poaching was high (0.48 ± 0.08) for the population close to the border of the park, whereas none of the radiomarked badgers in the core of the reserve died during the study period. A logistic model that included distance from the border of the park, sampling effort, and the local area (i.e., edge and core populations) indicated that the difference between both sites was due to the effect of distance from the border on survival probability. On a regional scale, badger density at the core of the park was 3.16 times higher than outside. Overall, the effect of the reserve was positive, but edge effects reduced reserve effectiveness by 36%. Edge effects in close proximity of the border were strong, reducing badger density even below the expected density outside the reserve. Edge effects should be considered carefully when reserves are implemented because they can greatly reduce reserve effectiveness and influence the viability of the populations inside. Enlargement of reserves and control of human activities that promote edge effects, both inside and outside the reserve, are the two management actions that can most effectively mitigate edge effects.     

Commercial fisheries under price uncertainty

The deterministic models applied in economics of fisheries are extended to comprise price uncertainty and risk aversion among the fishing units. It is proved that in the open-access fishery both the total fishing effort and the number of fishing units are reduced as the variance of the price increases; that the total fishing effort may be smaller in the open-access fishery than in the optimal fishery at a high variance; that only a fixed producer price system can create a first-best optimum, and that a tax on revenue is more efficient than both fishing unit quotas or tax on catch.     

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.     

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long‐term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range‐restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state‐space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries‐independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20–30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small‐scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive‐management, to confirm population‐level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.     

Estimating the elasticity of substitution between restricted and unrestricted inputs in a regulated fishery: A probit approach

Catch, effort, vessel, and skipper characteristic data for a sample of boats involved in the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery in the 1983/1984 season are used to estimate a fishing effort production function nested in a Cobb-Douglas fishery production function. The initial effort function is translog but tests suggest that the CES form cannot be rejected. The vessel's choice of fishing ground is modeled by a probit equation, the output from which is included in the OLS estimation of the production function. The elasticity of substitution between the inputs which are restricted by regulation and the other inputs is of particular interest as it determines whether input restriction is an efficient form of regulation for the fishery. The results suggest a value significantly less than unity.