Integrated modeling of flood flows and tidal hydrodynamics over a coastal floodplain

The interactions of physical processes between estuaries and upstream river floodplains are of great importance to the fish habitats and ecosystems in coastal regions. Traditionally, a hydraulic analysis of floodplains has used one- or two-dimensional models. While this approach may be sufficient for planning the engineering design for flood protection, it is inadequate when floodwaters inundate the floodplain in a complex manner. Similarly, typical estuarine and coastal modeling studies do not consider the effect of upstream river floodplains because of the technical challenge of modeling wetting and drying processes in floodplains and higher bottom elevations in the upstream river domain. While various multi-scale model frameworks have been proposed for modeling the coastal oceans, estuaries, and rivers with a combination of different models, this paper presents a modeling approach for simulating the hydrodynamics in the estuary and river floodplains, which provides a smooth transition between the two regimes using an unstructured-grid, coastal ocean model. This approach was applied to the Skagit River estuary and its upstream river floodplain of Puget Sound along the northwest coast of North America. The model was calibrated with observed data for water levels and velocities under low-flow and high-flood conditions. This study successfully demonstrated that a three-dimensional estuarine and coastal ocean model with an unstructured-grid framework and wetting-drying capability can be extended much further upstream to simulate the inundation processes and the dynamic interactions between the estuarine and river floodplain regimes.     

Composite likelihood approach to the regression analysis of spatial multivariate ordinal data and spatial compositional data with exact zero values

In many environmental and ecological studies, it is of interest to model compositional data. One approach is to consider positive random vectors that are subject to a unit-sum constraint. In landscape ecological studies, it is common that compositional data are also sampled in space with some elements of the composition absent at certain sampling sites. In this paper, we first propose a practical spatial multivariate ordered probit model for multivariate ordinal data, where the response variables can be viewed as the discretized non-negative compositions without the unit-sum constraint. We then propose a novel two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The first stage models the spatial dependence and the presence of exact zero values, and the second stage models all the non-zero compositional data. A maximum composite likelihood approach is developed for parameter estimation and inference in both the spatial multivariate ordered probit model and the two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The standard errors of the parameter estimates are computed by an estimate of the Godambe information matrix. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and methods. A land cover data example in landscape ecology further illustrates that accounting for spatial dependence can improve the accuracy in the prediction of presence/absence of different land covers as well as the magnitude of land cover compositions.     

Bridging the gap between ecophysiological and genetic knowledge to assess the adaptive potential of European beech

In this study we aimed to combine knowledge of the ecophysiology and genetics of European beech to assess the potential of this species to adapt to environmental change. Therefore, we performed field and experimental studies on the genetic and ecophysiological functioning of beech. This information was integrated through a coupled genetic–ecophysiological model for individual trees that was parameterized with information derived from our own studies or from the literature. Using the model, we evaluated the adaptive response of beech stands in two ways: firstly, through sensitivity analyses (of initial genetic diversity, pollen dispersal distance, heritability of selected phenotypic traits, and forest management, representing disturbances) and secondly, through the evaluation of the responses of phenotypic traits and their genetic diversity to four management regimes applied to 10 study plots distributed over Western Europe. The model results indicate that the interval between recruitment events strongly affects the rate of adaptive response, because selection is most severe during the early stages of forest development. Forest management regimes largely determine recruitment intervals and thereby the potential for adaptive responses. Forest management regimes also determine the number of mother trees that contribute to the next generation and thereby the genetic variation that is maintained. Consequently, undisturbed forests maintain the largest amount of genetic variation, as recruitment intervals approach the longevity of trees and many mother trees contribute to the next generation. However, undisturbed forests have the slowest adaptive response, for the same reasons.Gene flow through pollen dispersal may compensate for the loss in genetic diversity brought about by selection. The sensitivity analysis showed that the total genetic diversity of a 2 ha stand is not affected by gene flow if the pollen distance distribution is varied from highly left-skewed to almost flat. However, a stand with a prevailing short-distance gene flow has a more pronounced spatial genetic structure than stands with equal short- and long-distance gene flows. The build-up of a spatial genetic structure is also strongly determined by the recruitment interval. Overall, the modelling results indicate that European beech has high adaptive potential to environmental change if recruitment intervals are short and many mother trees contribute to the next generation.The findings have two implications for modelling studies on the impacts of climate change on forests. Firstly: it cannot be taken for granted that parameter values remain constant over a time horizon of even a few generations – this is particularly important for threshold values subject to strong selection, like budburst, frost hardiness, drought tolerance, as used in species area models. Secondly: forest management should be taken into account in future assessments, as management affects the rate of adaptive response and thereby the response on trees and forests to environmental change, and because few forests are unmanaged. We conclude that a coupled ecophysiological and quantitative genetic tree model is a useful tool for such studies.     

Mapping opportunities and challenges for rewilding in Europe

Farmland abandonment takes place across the world due to socio‐economic and ecological drivers. In Europe agricultural and environmental policies aim to prevent abandonment and halt ecological succession. Ecological rewilding has been recently proposed as an alternative strategy. We developed a framework to assess opportunities for rewilding across different dimensions of wilderness in Europe. We mapped artificial light, human accessibility based on transport infrastructure, proportion of harvested primary productivity (i.e., ecosystem productivity appropriated by humans through agriculture or forestry), and deviation from potential natural vegetation in areas projected to be abandoned by 2040. At the continental level, the levels of artificial light were low and the deviation from potential natural vegetation was high in areas of abandonment. The relative importance of wilderness metrics differed regionally and was strongly connected to local environmental and socio‐economic contexts. Large areas of projected abandonment were often located in or around Natura 2000 sites. Based on these results, we argue that management should be tailored to restore the aspects of wilderness that are lacking in each region. There are many remaining challenges regarding biodiversity in Europe, but megafauna species are already recovering. To further potentiate large‐scale rewilding, Natura 2000 management would need to incorporate rewilding approaches. Our framework can be applied to assessing rewilding opportunities and challenges in other world regions, and our results could guide redirection of subsidies to manage social‐ecological systems.     

Ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of contaminant in wetland

For the typical case of a pulsed contaminant emission into a free surface wetland flow, a theoretical analysis is presented in this paper for the decay of the depth-averaged concentration under the combined action of ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion. Based on a first-order reaction model extensively employed in related ecological risk assessment and environmental hydraulic design, the effect of ecological degradation is separated from the hydraulic effect via an exponential transformation for the general formulation for contaminant transport. The speed profile of a fully developed steady flow through the wetland is obtained. A hydraulic dispersion model for the depth-averaged concentration is devised as an extension of Taylor’s classical analysis on dispersion, and corresponding hydraulic dispersivity is obtained by Aris’s method of moments. Analytical solution of depth-averaged concentration is rigorously derived and characterized. For typical pollutant constituents in wastewater emission, the evolution of contaminant cloud in the wetland flow is illustrated by critical length and duration of influenced region with contaminant concentration beyond given environmental standard level, with essential implications for ecological risk assessment and environmental management.     

Toward a Management Framework for Networks of Protected Areas in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species’ ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate‐change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub‐Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub‐Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate‐change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously.     

Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe

To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large‐scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red‐list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional‐odds linear mixed‐effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red‐list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad‐leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad‐leaved forests to dense conifer‐dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad‐leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas.     

Land‐use trade‐offs between tree biodiversity and crop production in the Atlantic Forest

Trade‐offs in ecosystem services (ES) have received increasing attention because provisioning services often come at the expense of biodiversity loss. When land‐use patterns are not maximally efficient relative to productivity, provisioning services, such as crop production, can often be increased without losing biodiversity. The Atlantic Forest (AF) encompasses dense, mixed, and seasonal forests and has high levels of endemism and anthropogenic threat. We examined trade‐offs between biodiversity and crop production in the AF to provide insights into land‐use management decisions. We developed a biodiversity metric that combines information on tree species richness, evolutionary distinctiveness, and rarity at the local level. We examined the extent to which the nature of ES trade‐offs differ among the 3 forest types. We assessed how annual deforestation rates and land management practices affect biodiversity and agricultural revenues. Finally, we tested whether it is possible to achieve the same total regional revenue without reducing biodiversity by improving local management practices. The 3 forest types had similar patterns in ES trade‐offs, although within mixed forest patterns differed. Biodiversity appeared to be more sensitive to land‐use change than crop revenues. Certain crops yielded up to 10 times higher values in some sites. Enhanced crop productivity may increase revenues without reducing biodiversity. Our results showed that to enhance human well‐being without further conversion of AF, maximizing crop productivity is needed . Increasing efficiency of management outcomes by maintaining higher biodiversity and increasing provisioning services depends on knowledge of forest type, the comparative advantage of planting crops in the best places, and preserving species in a balanced manner across forests.     

Management von schadstoffbelasteten Feinsedimenten in Bundeswasserstraßen

The Federal Institute of Hydrology has developed operating strategies in order to deal with dredged material within the scope of the Waterways and Shipping Administration. Sediments will be assessed based on certain quality parameters. The potential environmental impact at the source and relocation areas has to be evaluated in respect to ecological and economical issues. A coordinated sediment management plan for the Rhine River was commissioned. The most important contaminated sedimentation areas were identified, and special sedimentation areas were classified based on ecological impact or even risk. Proposals for economical and ecological strategies are discussed. Further developments for operational instructions dealing with sediments and dredged material in federal waterways are still being processed. The objectives of the river basin commissions as well as those of the stakeholders have to be met in an appropriate manner. In the framework of the analysis and impact of climate change on both sediment quantity and quality for optimizing sediment management, one or more dimensional hydraulic models will be applied. This will help gain a better insight into the understanding of contaminant transport in freshwater bodies.     

Using historical spy satellite photographs and recent remote sensing data to identify high-conservation-value forests

High-conservation-value forests (HCVFs) are critically important for biodiversity and ecosystem service provisioning, but they face many threats. Where systematic HCVF inventories are missing, such as in parts of Eastern Europe, these forests remain largely unacknowledged and therefore often unprotected. We devised a novel, transferable approach for detecting HCVFs based on integrating historical spy satellite images, contemporary remote sensing data (Landsat), and information on current potential anthropogenic pressures (e.g., road infrastructure, population density, demand for fire wood, terrain). We applied the method to the Romanian Carpathians, for which we mapped forest continuity (1955–2019), canopy structural complexity, and anthropogenic pressures. We identified 738,000 ha of HCVF. More than half of this area was identified as susceptible to current anthropogenic pressures and lacked formal protection. By providing a framework for broad-scale HCVF monitoring, our approach facilitates integration of HCVF into forest conservation and management. This is urgently needed to achieve the goals of the European Union's Biodiversity Strategy to maintain valuable forest ecosystems.     

Natural resource management in national parks: a management assessment of a Natura 2000 wetlands site in Kotychi-Strofylia,southern Greece

In Europe, the establishment of the Natura 2000 network is one of the main actions that has been undertaken to contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity. However, the management system of sites included in the network is under question. The aim of this study was to assess the natural resource management applied to the National Park of the wetlands Kotychi-Strofylia, southern Greece, an important site belonging to the European ecological network Natura 2000, and the Ramsar convention. The methodological approach applied follows the general framework of International Unit for Nature Conservation/World Committee for Protected Areas (IUCN/WCPA) for the evaluation of protected areas, and it was based on field monitoring data with a view of providing information in achieving the stated management objectives. Two levels of indicators were used: the first concerned the evaluation of the management process and the second the evaluation of the management outputs and outcomes. The assessment of the natural resources management in the National Park showed that the management of the area is oriented towards biodiversity conservation and lies within the scope of the habitat directive and the ecological network Natura 2000. The framework applied and the methodological approach followed in this study appear to provide a useful basis for designing and conducting management evaluation. The indicators used at local scale can be integrated at regional- and national-scale projects of management evaluation, and, at the same time, the evaluation results can help local managers to improve management by taking the appropriate management measures. The analytical hierarchical conceptual flow suggested seems to be considered as an essential tool for evaluating natural resource management.     

An optimization approach for sustainable release of e-flows for lake restoration and preservation: Model development and a case study of Baiyangdian Lake, China

In this paper, we describe the development of a model for the sustainable release of e-flows from the regional water resource infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs, rivers with available water) for lake restoration and preservation, and use the model in a case study of Baiyangdian Lake, China. First, we define the sustainable environmental flows (e-flows), with an emphasis on the ecological importance of temporal variation in factors such as water level (depth). By analyzing historical data on the suitable range of water levels in the lake, we evaluated fluctuations using canonical correspondence analysis and frequency distribution analysis. The temporal variations required by the ecosystem of the lake were also assessed. Based on this approach, we developed an optimization model for sustainable release of e-flows. We used the adaptive genetic algorithm approach to solve the model and determine the required release of e-flows. Scenario analysis then provided a range of potential management strategies for the e-flows. The optimal results are helpful to the lake managers to establish sustainable e-flow release schemes for the lake restoration and preservation.     

Beyond Kyoto: Forest Management in a Time of Rapid Climate Change

Abstract: Policies to reduce global warming by offering credits for carbon sequestration have neglected the effects of forest management on biodiversity. I review properties of forest ecosystems and management options for enhancing the resistance and resilience of forests to climate change. Although forests, as a class, have proved resilient to past changes in climate, today's fragmented and degraded forests are more vulnerable. Adaptation of species to climate change can occur through phenotypic plasticity, evolution, or migration to suitable sites, with the latter probably the most common response in the past. Among the land-use and management practices likely to maintain forest biodiversity and ecological functions during climate change are (1) representing forest types across environmental gradients in reserves; (2) protecting climatic refugia at multiple scales; (3) protecting primary forests; (4) avoiding fragmentation and providing connectivity, especially parallel to climatic gradients; (5) providing buffer zones for adjustment of reserve boundaries; (6) practicing low-intensity forestry and preventing conversion of natural forests to plantations; ( 7) maintaining natural fire regimes; (8) maintaining diverse gene pools; and (9) identifying and protecting functional groups and keystone species. Good forest management in a time of rapidly changing climate differs little from good forest management under more static conditions, but there is increased emphasis on protecting climatic refugia and providing connectivity.     

A Biophysical Toolbox for assessment and management of land and water resources in rural catchments in Northern Thailand

With rapid intensification of agricultural catchments in Northern Thailand a suite of environmental issues has surfaced. The Integrated Water Resources Assessment and Management (IWRAM) project was instigated in response to these issues. The project developed a Decision Support System (DSS) for the exploration of biophysical and socio-economic impacts of water resource use options. The IWRAM-DSS is comprised of a ‘Biophysical Toolbox’ that can be implemented alone and an ‘Integrated Toolbox’ that links socio-economic models with the Biophysical Toolbox to explore economic trade-offs and impacts of various scenarios. The Biophysical Toolbox is comprised of three modules—the CATCHCROP crop model, a hydrologic module based upon the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model, and a Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) approach modified to suit conditions in Northern Thailand. This paper describes the Biophysical Toolbox and runs forest conversion, land management, and climate scenarios to demonstrate the potential of this tool in exploring the environmental effects of land and water management options.     

Ecology of Pacific Yew (Taxus brevifolia) in Western Oregon and Washington

Taxus brevifolia , a subcanopy tree or shrub in forests of the Pacific Northwest, has been harvested intensively in recent years. With management concerns as an impetus, we examined the distribution and population dynamics of Taxus based on data from the mountains of western Oregon and Washington. Surveys of natural forests, long-term studies of forest recovery following logging, and census data on marked trees in forest stands support the hypothesis that Taxus is a widespread but predominantly late-successional species. Sensitive to fire and slow to recover from disturbance on many sites, Taxus attains maximal basal area and adult stem density in old forests. Colonization of Taxus is often slow in potentially suitable habitats. Conservation of Taxus at the landscape level may require large, unmanaged reserves and maintenance of patches of old forest within managed forests. Long rotations (centuries) between harvest events will enhance the long-term viability of the species. Practices designed to accelerate the development of old-growth forest structure will not benefit Taxus and other species requiring long disturbance-free intervals for recovery.     

Predicting the Range of Chinese Mitten Crabs in Europe

Abstract:  Ecological niche modeling provides a means for predicting the potential future distribution of a nonindigenous species based on environmental characteristics of the species' native range. We applied this method to the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) , a catadromous crustacean with a long history of invasion in Europe. We used genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction to predict the potential European distribution of mitten crab based on its distribution in 42 locations in its native Asia. The climatic variables, air temperature, number of days, amount of precipitation, and wetness index, contributed significantly to predictions of native distribution limits. Although the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model was developed for the native range, the species' extensive distribution in Europe ( n = 434) allowed independent validation of the predictions. Application of the model to Europe was successful, with 84% of occurrences in regions predicted to be suitable by >80% of the models and <4% of occurrences in areas predicted suitable by <50% of the models (mainly along the northern range). At the watershed scale, areas with established mitten crab populations had significantly higher habitat matching than sites that were not invaded. The independent validation of the Asian-based model by the European distribution revealed that predictions were highly accurate. The model also identified large areas of Europe, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, as vulnerable to future invasion. These predictions can be used to develop strategies to control the spread of mitten crab by preventing introductions into vulnerable areas.     

Expanding marine protected areas to include degraded coral reefs

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly applied solution to coral reef degradation, yet coral reefs continue to decline worldwide. We argue that expanding the range of MPAs to include degraded reefs (DR‐MPA) could help reverse this trend. This approach requires new ecological criteria for MPA design, siting, and management. Rather than focusing solely on preserving healthy reefs, our approach focuses on the potential for biodiversity recovery and renewal of ecosystem services. The new criteria would help identify sites with the highest potential for recovery and the greatest resistance to future threats (e.g., increased temperature and acidification) and sites that contribute to MPA connectivity. The DR‐MPA approach is a compliment rather than a substitute for traditional MPA design approaches. We believe that the DR‐MPA approach can enhance the natural, or restoration‐assisted, recovery of DRs and their ecosystem services; increase total reef area available for protection; promote more resilient and better‐connected MPA networks; and improve conditions for human communities dependent on MPA ecosystem services.     

Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe

Background

This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.

Results

Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75–100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <?40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=?above-average) or low (=?below-average) correlation coefficients.

Conclusions

LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

     

A combined ecosystem and value chain modeling approach for evaluating societal cost and benefit of fishing

We describe a combined ecological and economic approach aimed at giving more equal emphasis to both disciplines, while being integrated so that design, analysis, data entry and storage, and result capabilities are developed with emphasis on deriving a user-friendly, easily accessible tool. We have thus developed the approach as an integrated module of the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim scientific software; the world's most widely applied ecological modeling tool. We link the trophic ecosystem model to a value-chain approach where we explicitly and in considerable detail keep track of the flow (amounts, revenue, and costs) of fish products from sea through to the end consumer. We also describe the social aspects of the fish production and trade, by evaluating employment and income diagnostics. This is done with emphasis on distribution income while accounting for social aspects of the fishing sector. From a management perspective, one of the interesting aspects of the approach we introduce here, is that it opens for direct evaluation of what impact management interventions, e.g., quota settings, effort regulation, or area closures, may have on the ecosystem, the economy and the social setting, as well as on food availability for the consumer.