Assessment of Management to Mitigate Anthropogenic Effects on Large Whales

United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores     

Application of the Anthropogenic Allee Effect Model to Trophy Hunting as a Conservation Tool

Trophy hunting can provide economic incentives to conserve wild species, but it can also involve risk when rare species are hunted. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) is a conceptual model that seeks to explain how rarity may spread the seeds of further endangerment. The AAE model has increasingly been invoked in the context of trophy hunting, increasing concerns that such hunting may undermine rather than enhance conservation efforts. We question the appropriateness of uncritically applying the AAE model to trophy hunting for 4 reasons. First, the AAE assumes an open‐access resource, which is a poor characterization of most trophy‐hunting programs and obscures the potential for state, communal, or private‐property use rights to generate positive incentives for conservation. Second, study results that show the price of hunting increases as the rarity of the animal increases are insufficient to indicate the presence of AAE. Third, AAE ignores the existence of biological and behavioral factors operating in most trophy‐hunting contexts that tend to regulate the effect of hunting. We argue that site‐specific data, rather than aggregated hunting statistics, are required to demonstrate that patterns of unsustainable exploitation can be well explained by an AAE model. Instead, we suggest that conservation managers seeking to investigate and identify constraints that limit the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, should focus on the critical governance characteristics that shape the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, such as corruption, insecure property rights, and inadequate sharing of benefits with local people. Aplicación del Modelo Antropogénico del Efecto Allee sobre la Caza de Trofeos como una Herramienta de Conservación     

Impacts of Chronic Anthropogenic Noise from Energy‐Sector Activity on Abundance of Songbirds in the Boreal Forest

Abstract: The effects of human activities in forests are often examined in the context of habitat conversion. Changes in habitat structure and composition are also associated with increases in the activity of people with vehicles and equipment, which results in increases in anthropogenic noise. Anthropogenic noise may reduce habitat quality for many species, particularly those that rely on acoustic signals for communication. We compared the density and occupancy rate of forest passerines close to versus far from noise‐generating compressor stations and noiseless well pads in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using distance‐based sampling, we found that areas near noiseless energy facilities had a total passerine density 1.5 times higher than areas near noise‐producing energy sites. The White‐throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis), Yellow‐rumped Warbler (Dendroica coronata), and Red‐eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus) were less dense in noisy areas. We used repeat sampling to estimate occupancy rate for 23 additional species. Seven had lower conditional or unconditional occupancy rates near noise‐generating facilities. One‐third of the species examined showed patterns that supported the hypothesis that abundance is influenced by anthropogenic noise. An additional 4 species responded negatively to edge effects. To mitigate existing noise impacts on birds would require approximately $175 million. The merits of such an effort relative to other reclamation actions are discussed. Nevertheless, given the $100 billion energy‐sector investment planned for the boreal forest in the next 10 years, including noise suppression technology at the outset of construction, makes noise mitigation a cost‐effective best‐management practice that might help conserve high‐quality habitat for boreal birds.     

Modeling the Effects of Anthropogenic Habitat Change on Savanna Snake Invasions into African Rainforest

Abstract:  We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus) , olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus) , and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus) . Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.     

Using Age Structure to Detect Impacts on Threatened Populations: a Case Study with Steller Sea Lions

Abstract:   A delayed response to change is often a characteristic of long-lived species and presents a major challenge to monitoring their status. However, rapid shifts in age structure can occur even while population size remains relatively static. We used time-varying matrix models to study age-structure information as a tool for improving detection of survivorship and fecundity change and status. We applied the methods to Steller sea lions (  Eumetopias jubatus ), a long-lived endangered marine mammal found throughout the North Pacific Rim. Population and newborn counts were supplemented with information on the fraction of the population that was juvenile, obtained by measuring animals in aerial photographs taken during range-wide censuses. By fitting the model to 1976–1998 data, we obtained maximum-likelihood estimates and 95% confidence intervals for juvenile survivorship, adult survivorship, and adult fecundity in the mid-1980s, late 1980s, and 1990s. We used a series of nested models to test whether the data were best fit by a model with one, two, or three temporal changes in demographic rates, and we fit the models to different lengths of data to test the number of years of data needed to detect a demographic change. The declines in the early 1980s were associated with severely low juvenile survivorship, whereas declines in the 1990s were associated with disproportionately low fecundity. We repeated these analyses, fitting only to the count data without the juvenile-fraction information, to determine whether the age-structure information changed the conclusions and/or changed the certainty and speed with which demographic-rate changes could be detected. The juvenile-fraction data substantially improved the degree to which estimates from the model were consistent with field data and significantly improved the speed and certainty with which changes in demographic rates were detected.     

Bottlenose dolphins and aquaculture: interaction and site fidelity on the north-eastern coast of Sardinia (Italy)

Owing to the worldwide growth of aquaculture over the last years, new habitats have been created through the supplement of nutrients. This addition of nutrients affects the whole marine food web, resulting in predator species such as bottlenose dolphins becoming attracted to these areas. During this 5-year-long study that was carried out along the north-eastern coast of Sardinia (Italy), bottlenose dolphin’s history of exposure to aquaculture perturbations and their effects was documented. The interaction with a fish farm was assessed by studying the site fidelity, group dynamics, and seasonal and yearly occurrence. In all, 1,838 hours were spent in the field. Behavioural observations showed that the predominant activity (89 % of the time) in the fish farm was foraging (predation and depredation). The occurrence of bottlenose dolphins appeared to be related with the seasons and with the fish farm harvesting operations. Thus, the peak dolphin occurrence in the fish farm area throughout Fall coincides with the period in which they spend most of their time foraging. A relatively small community remained resident interacting with the fish farm over a long period of time. Hence, these individuals gained intimate knowledge on how to capitalize on the fish farm industry. This heterogeneity in site fidelity and residence patterns is highly relevant when coastal management initiatives are considered.     

基于FH插值法构建的二元有机磷农药联合作用新模型在等效线图法中的研究

为探讨基于FH插值法构建的二元有机磷混合物联合作用新模型在等效线图法中的应用,选择野生型秀丽隐杆线虫(Caenorhabditis elegans)为受试生物,测定敌敌畏(DDVP)和久效磷(MCP)的单一毒性以及二元联合毒性;依据单个农药作用线虫4 h的急性毒理试验结果,以等效线图法原理绘制30%、50%和70%线虫死亡效应的浓度加和等效线及置信区间(CI);利用二元混合农药联合作用结果,基于FH插值法建立二元有机磷农药混合物联合作用模型;利用等高线与混合物联合作用曲面,绘制30%、50%和70%线虫死亡效应下混合农药的观测等效线。结果表明:DDVP、MCP单一作用线虫4 h的LC30、LC50和LC70及CI分别为35.40(26.85～41.64)、43.55(36.00～50.76)、53.58(45.99～64.95)μmol·L~(-1)和13.15(9.12～16.07)、16.96(13.35～20.55)、21.87(18.11～28.36) mmol·L~(-1); 30%、50%和70%线虫致死效应的观测等效线均在加和等效线置信区间内,表明DDVP与MCP混合农药的联合作用表现为相加作用,与多元统计分析结果一致。上述研究实现了对二元有机磷农药混合物联合作用下任一效应观测等效线的预测,并为全面有效地评价二元混合物联合作用效应提供了新的方法。     

Using social network analysis tools in ecology: Markov process transition models applied to the seasonal trophic network dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay

Ecosystem components interact in complex ways and change over time due to a variety of both internal and external influences (climate change, season cycles, human impacts). Such processes need to be modeled dynamically using appropriate statistical methods for assessing change in network structure. Here we use visualizations and statistical models of network dynamics to understand seasonal changes in the trophic network model described by Baird and Ulanowicz [Baird, D., Ulanowicz, R.E., 1989. Seasonal dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Ecol. Monogr. 501 (59), 329–364] for the Chesapeake Bay (USA). Visualizations of carbon flow networks were created for each season by using a network graphic analysis tool (NETDRAW). The structural relations of the pelagic and benthic compartments (nodes) in each seasonal network were displayed in a two-dimensional space using spring-embedder analyses with nodes color-coded for habitat associations (benthic or pelagic). The most complex network was summer, when pelagic species such as sea nettles, larval fishes, and carnivorous fishes immigrate into Chesapeake Bay and consume prey largely from the plankton and to some extent the benthos. Winter was the simplest of the seasonal networks, and exhibited the highest ascendency, with fewest nodes present and with most of the flows shifting to the benthic bacteria and sediment POC compartments. This shift in system complexity corresponds with a shift from a pelagic- to benthic-dominated system over the seasonal cycle, suggesting that winter is a mostly closed system, relying on internal cycling rather than external input. Network visualization tools are useful in assessing temporal and spatial changes in food web networks, which can be explored for patterns that can be tested using statistical approaches. A simulation-based continuous-time Markov Chain model called SIENA was used to determine the dynamic structural changes in the trophic network across phases of the annual cycle in a statistical as opposed to a visual assessment. There was a significant decrease in outdegree (prey nodes with reduced link density) and an increase in the number of transitive triples (a triad in which i chooses j and h, and j also chooses h, mostly connected via the non-living detritus nodes in position i), suggesting the Chesapeake Bay is a simpler, but structurally more efficient, ecosystem in the winter than in the summer. As in the visual analysis, this shift in system complexity corresponds with a shift from a pelagic to a more benthic-dominated system from summer to winter. Both the SIENA model and the visualization in NETDRAW support the conclusions of Baird and Ulanowicz [Baird, D., Ulanowicz, R.E., 1989. Seasonal dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Ecol. Monogr. 501 (59), 329–364] that there was an increase in the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem's ascendancy in the winter. We explain such reduced complexity in winter as a system response to lowered temperature and decreased solar energy input, which causes a decline in the production of new carbon, forcing nodes to go extinct; this causes a change in the structure of the system, making it simpler and more efficient than in summer. It appears that the seasonal dynamics of the trophic structure of Chesapeake Bay can be modeled effectively using the SIENA statistical model for network change.     

Evaluating the Effects of Anthropogenic Stressors on Source‐Sink Dynamics in Pond‐Breeding Amphibians

Although interwetland dispersal is thought to play an important role in regional persistence of pond‐breeding amphibians, few researchers have modeled amphibian metapopulation or source‐sink dynamics. Results of recent modeling studies suggest anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution, can negatively affect density and population viability of amphibians breeding in isolated wetlands. Presumably population declines also result in reduced dispersal to surrounding (often uncontaminated) habitats, potentially affecting dynamics of nearby populations. We used our data on the effects of mercury (Hg) on the American toad ( Bufo americanus) as a case study in modeling the effects of anthropogenic stressors on landscape‐scale amphibian dynamics. We created a structured metapopulation model to investigate regional dynamics of American toads and to evaluate the degree to which detrimental effects of Hg contamination on individual populations can disrupt interpopulation dynamics. Dispersal from typical American toad populations supported nearby populations that would otherwise have been extirpated over long time scales. Through support of such sink populations, dispersal between wetland‐associated subpopulations substantially increased overall productivity of wetland networks, but this effect declined with increasing interwetland distance and decreasing wetland size. Contamination with Hg substantially reduced productivity of wetland‐associated subpopulations and impaired the ability of populations to support nearby sinks within relevant spatial scales. Our results add to the understanding of regional dynamics of pond‐breeding amphibians, the wide‐reaching negative effects of environmental contaminants, and the potential for restoration or remediation of degraded habitats. Evaluación de los Efectos de Estresantes Antropogénicos sobre la Dinámica Fuente‐Vertedero en Anfibios que se Reproducen en Charcas     

稀土的生物效应与农用稀土的累积影响

综述稀土元素的环境行为、累积影响、生物富集和生物效应,从动植物对稀土元素的生物富集及其产生的负面效应,探讨了农业应用稀土在土壤中累积后对生态环境可能产生的影响     

Effects of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation on the Behavior and Demography of Gray-Tailed Voles

We monitored the short term behavioral and demographic responses of gray-tailed voles (Microtus canicaudus) to the reduction and fragmentation of their habitat. Our objectives were (1) to test whether animals perished or moved into remaining fragments after 70% of their habitat was removed; and (2) to test the null hypothesis that the social structure and demography of animals would not differ between habitats consisting of one large continuous fragment (625 m²), a mosaic of 25 small fragments (each 25 m²) separated by 4 m of bare ground, and control, unmanipulated habitats (1850 m²). We conducted the experiment in 12, 0.2-ha enclosures planted with alfalfa with four replicates for each of two manipulated treatments and a control. A 70% reduction in habitat did not adversely affect adult survival, reproductive rate, juvenile recruitment, or population size. However, an influx of unrelated females into habitat fragments resulted in decreased juvenile recruitment in those fragments. Voles from cleared habitat moved into the remaining habitat and did not measurably affect the resident population. Similarly, the demography of voles did not differ significantly among the large-fragment, small-fragment, and control enclosures. Peak density estimates based on the amount of habitat in each enclosure were 545 animals per hectare in control, 1056 in large-fragment, and 2880 in small-fragment enclosures. Reduced movement of animals among the small fragments was the most obvious effect of habitat fragmentation. Six percent of females and 15% of males moved among small fragments within a week compared to approximately 60% moving comparable distances in large-fragment and control enclosures. Rates of juvenile dispersal and sexual maturation declined throughout the summer on all treatments, were associated with season and density, and were only marginally associated with habitat loss and fragmentation. We conclude that at the time of habitat removal and fragmentation, populations were small enough to accommodate a 70% reduction in habitat and still continue to increase in numbers. The social system of gray-tailed voles was sufficiently flexible to accommodate an influx of animals to withstand densities> 1000 voles per ha. The behavioral and demographic features of gray-tailed voles are similar to those reported for other small mammals, thus confirming the use of voles for ecological model systems in habitat fragmentation studies.     

微囊藻毒素与孔雀石绿对唐鱼游泳行为的影响

鱼类行为能准确地反映环境变化,并且随着污染物浓度的变化而发生改变.采用人工饲养的方法,以对环境毒素敏感的唐鱼(Tanichthys albonubes)作为指示生物,检测了其行为对水体中微囊藻毒素和孔雀石绿的反应.结果表明,唐鱼对0.2μg·L-1的微囊藻毒素即有明显的行为反应,摆尾频率和游泳速度均在30min后显著下降;0.5μg·L-1微囊藻毒素处理下,摆尾频率和游泳速度均在15min后显著下降.0.5mg·L-1孔雀石绿处理下,游泳速度在30min后显著下降,而摆尾频率则无显著性变化.初步推断,以对毒素敏感的唐鱼行为作为标记,用以监测水环境安全是可行的.     

Lag Effects in the Impacts of Mass Coral Bleaching on Coral Reef Fish, Fisheries, and Ecosystems

Abstract:  Recent episodes of coral bleaching have led to wide-scale loss of reef corals and raised concerns over the effectiveness of existing conservation and management efforts. The 1998 bleaching event was most severe in the western Indian Ocean, where coral declined by up to 90% in some locations. Using fisheries-independent data, we assessed the long-term impacts of this event on fishery target species in the Seychelles, the overall size structure of the fish assemblage, and the effectiveness of two marine protected areas (MPAs) in protecting fish communities. The biomass of fished species above the size retained in fish traps changed little between 1994 and 2005, indicating no current effect on fishery yields. Biomass remained higher in MPAs, indicating they were effective in protecting fish stocks. Nevertheless, the size structure of the fish communities, as described with size-spectra analysis, changed in both fished areas and MPAs, with a decline in smaller fish (<30 cm) and an increase in larger fish (>45 cm). We believe this represents a time-lag response to a reduction in reef structural complexity brought about because fishes are being lost through natural mortality and fishing, and are not being replaced by juveniles. This effect is expected to be greater in terms of fisheries productivity and, because congruent patterns are observed for herbivores, suggests that MPAs do not offer coral reefs long-term resilience to bleaching events. Corallivores and planktivores declined strikingly in abundance, particularly in MPAs, and this decline was associated with a similar pattern of decline in their preferred corals. We suggest that climate-mediated disturbances, such as coral bleaching, be at the fore of conservation planning for coral reefs.     

Effects of Motorized Tourboats on the Behavior of Nonbreeding American Flamingos in Yucatan, Mexico

We assessed the effect of motorized tourboats on the behavior of nonbreeding American flamingos (  Phoenicopterus ruber ruber) in the Celestún Estuary, a Special Biosphere Reserve in Yucatán, Mexico, from November 1994 through February 1995. We measured these effects by comparing activity budgets between flocks of flamingos disturbed and undisturbed by tourboats. Disturbance reduced feeding time from 40% before disturbance to 24% after, a 40% loss. Boat disturbance increased alert behavior by 400%. Tourboats averaged 13 per day and caused a disturbance 75% of the time or 3.3 hours per day. Potential loss of feeding time for individuals was estimated at 13% but is likely much higher on days with excessive numbers of tourboats. Flamingos returned to normal feeding rates (40%) within 20 minutes after disturbance. Most tourists (52%) were from Mexico, followed by Germany (14%), and 88% of Mexican visitors were willing to pay an entrance fee to the Celestún Reserve. Conservation efforts should focus on education of tourboat operators to reduce disturbance to flamingos, education of tourists through a visitor's center and brochures produced in Spanish and English, and expanded involvement of local people.     

视黄酸和多溴联苯醚联合暴露对斑马鱼运动行为的影响

水环境中的多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)污染会对水生生物神经系统产生影响,而视黄酸(retinoic acid, RA)对机体的神经系统和肢体发育具有重要作用。本文研究了四溴联苯醚(BDE-47)或十溴联苯醚(BDE-209)单独暴露以及RA联合BDE-47或BDE-209暴露对斑马鱼运动行为的影响。研究表明在稳定光照、黑暗和光暗交替刺激3种不同环境条件下,5μmol·L~(-1)BDE-47和3μmol·L~(-1)BDE-209单独暴露均导致斑马鱼运动速度显著降低。当2 nmol·L~(-1)RA联合相同剂量的BDE-47或BDE-209暴露时,可使仔鱼在稳定光照和黑暗下的自由运动速度相对单独暴露时显著升高,在光暗刺激下的运动速度也比单独暴露时于一定程度上有所缓解。因此,视黄酸的存在可以对因BDE-47和BDE-209暴露引起的斑马鱼运动行为异常起到恢复作用,这种恢复作用的机制可能是通过中枢神经系统或感官系统发挥作用。     

Effects of Combined Exposure to Formaldehyde and PM2.5 on the Brain of Balb/c Mice Asthma Model

Epidemiological studies have shown that there is a link between asthma and brain damage,but toxicological studies have not fully confirmed yet,especially the effects of asthma on the brain. In this study,at first,we explore the effects of asthma on the brain through the establishment of an allergic asthma model. Then PM_(2.5),a typical outdoor air pollutant and formaldehyde,a typical indoor air pollutant were selected to be closer to the true environment and find whether there is any synergism between them. In this study,an ovalbumin( OVA)-sensitized mice asthma model was established. 30 male Balb/c mice were randomly divided into 5 groups:( 1) saline control group,( 2) OVA-sensitized group,( 3) OVA-combined with formaldehyde exposure group,( 4) OVA-combined with PM_(2.5) exposure group,( 5) Combination of OVA,formaldehyde and PM_(2.5) exposure group. The mice were inhaled with formaldehyde or/and instilled with PM_(2.5) from day 1 to 18. The mice asthma model was developed by OVA sensitization and challenge. The mice were sensitized with OVA+Al( OH)3( 5 mg OVA and 175 mg Al( OH)3 in 30 m L saline each time) or saline( 30 m L saline each time) by intraperitoneal injection on day 1,7 and 14.This was then followed by an aerosol challenge in 1% OVA( 30 min·d~(-1)) from day 19 to 25( 7 times) using an ultrasonic nebulizer. On the 26 th day,the organ coefficient of mice brain was counted,then the contents of oxidative stress of mice brain were measured,including reactive oxygen species( ROS),glutathione( GSH) and malondialdehyde( MDA),and the concentrations of NF-κB and interleukin-1β( IL-1β) were detected by using ELISA kits.Detection of interleukin-6( IL-6) was made with immunohistochemical method. Histological assay for brain was also conducted. In our results,all the OVA treated groups showed a significant increase of ROS and a significant decrease of GSH contents when compared with the control group. Except OVA-sensitized group,other OVA treated groups also showed a significant increase of MDA contents when compared with the control group,and MDA contents of OVA-sensitized group showed significant change when compared to the combined exposure group. In ROS and GSH,combined exposure showed some joint effect compared with single exposure. When OVA was applied in combination with formaldehyde and PM_(2.5),NF-κB was activated. And all the OVA treated groups showed increased levels of IL-1β and IL-6 compared with the control group. And the combined exposure showed an aggravated effect when compared with OVA-sensitized group. Histopathological observation of the hippocampus in mice brain clearly showed the difference of eosin( EO) stained neurons in the combined exposure group compared with the control group and OVA-sensitized group. The pyramidal neurons of the mice with allergic asthma exposed to formaldehyde and/or PM_(2.5) had been reduced in number,the cells were swollen and the dendrites had disappeared. Allergic asthma can cause damage to the brain through oxidative stress. Exposure to formaldehyde and PM_(2.5) will increase the damage caused by allergic asthma to the brain,which may be mediated by oxidative stress and NF-κB activation.This promotes the release of the inflammatory factors,resulting in increased inflammation.     

南亚热带森林3层次物种多度之广义泊松分布模型

生物群落中物种多度分布(species abundance distribution)呈典型的倒J形,即其中存在许多稀有种、少量常见种.物种多度分布模型研究有助于解决森林生态恢复中的物种配置等实际问题.本研究考察了一种过分散(over-dispersion,或称超分布,即方差大于均值)的离散型分布,即具有λ和α两个参数...