化工装置火灾、爆炸、毒物扩散危险快速辨识方法

化工装置火灾、爆炸、毒物扩散的危险辨识是进一步进行定量化风险评估等安全分析的基础,笔者提出考虑该3种破坏效应显著的11种事故模式,以化工装置的介质性质、操作条件等参数作为基本事件对各种事故模式进行事故树分析;从而得到各基本参数对不同事故模式发生的影响并以其为依据建立了一种基于危险分析调查表和事故模式-字符串映射表的问卷式快速危险辨识体系;最后采用VB6.0作为开发平台,对该辨识系统进行了软件化实施。     

危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理研究

为了分析危险化学品泄漏事故演化机理,简化其定量风险分析过程,先假设容器失效导致的初始事件为危险化学品泄漏事件,再根据危险化学品物质特性分类和中间演化事件场景,构建了常见的各类危险化学品发生泄漏初始事件后的通用事件树,并根据已有的研究成果,对事件树中各种中间演化事件概率进行取值研究。研究结果表明,通用事件树能很好地揭示基于物质特性和中间事件场景的泄漏事故演化规律,应用含中间演化事件概率的通用事件树能计算出各种事故后果发生的频率,对危险化学品事故的快速定量风险分析有十分重要的参考意义。     

聚乙烯醇罐区火灾爆炸事故树分析

通过现场的调研与事故树分析相结合的手段对某厂聚乙烯醇车间聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的危险因素进行了识别与分析.以该罐区可能发生的火灾爆炸事故作为顶上事件,对可能引发顶上事件的21个基本事件及一个条件事件构建事故树,利用最小割集、最小径集及结构重要性计算手段进行事故风险程度分析,从而确定醋酸乙烯暴聚是聚合罐区的首要危险源,而促发醋酸乙烯暴聚的物料长时间停留、气相氧含量过高、温度控制失效、阻聚剂含量不足等四个基本事件是导致聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的最危险因素.本文对以上聚合罐区发生火灾爆炸事故的风险因素进行详细定性分析,并在此基础上有针对性的提出了相应的安全预防控制措施.同时,该聚合罐区的事故树分析结论也可以为同类别化工单位罐区的日常运行、设计改造、维护保养等工作提供理论依据.     

用FTA预防进塔作业作亡事故

对我公司的１９８９～１９９２年发生在进塔入罐检修作业中的四起死亡事故，应用ＦＴＡ找出事故发生原因及其逻辑关系，编制出共性的有向树图（事故树图），演绎出发生此类事故的基本事件途径和避免事故发生的最佳基本事件途径，并提出了六条综合预防对策。     

易燃易爆化学品泄漏火灾爆炸事故树分析

文章采用事故树分析法（FTA）对易燃易爆化学品泄漏火灾爆炸事故的原因进行了全面分析,通过建立事故树并对事故树进行分析,求事故树的最小割集、最小径集及各基本事件的结构重要度,定性探讨了火灾爆炸事故的发生发展模式,并根据分析提出了相应的对策措施。     

FTA -AHP 方法研究及应用

事故树方法由于故障率数据的缺失无法准确确定各基本事件对顶上事件的影响度,工程应用中难以确定安全措施重点与优先顺序。将FTA-AHP结合起来,先用事故树做定性分析,得到最小割集和最小径集,画出等效事故树,然后以事故类型作为目标层,最小割集或最小径集作为准则层,各基本事件作为指标层因素,引入专家打分法构建判断矩阵,获得指标层因素（基本事件）对目标层（事故）的影响顺序,从而得到基本事件对顶上事件影响程度与顺序。将该方法应用于分析发生频率高的建筑工程高处坠落事故,研究结果表明,利用FTA-AHP方法所获得的分析结果更加符合工程实际,高处坠落事故防范重点明确,拟采取的安全措施优先顺序合理,有利于指导制定科学合理的防范高处坠落事故的安全措施。     

基于事故树理论的非金属矿山爆破事故致因分析

采用安全系统工程方法,以陕西省某大理石矿为例,对非金属矿山爆破事故进行了事故树分析,并绘制出爆破事故树分析图,直观地表现了各可能导致顶上事件发生的基本事件及其逻辑关系,通过对FTA的定性分析,得出了最小割集和结构重要度,并提出了相应的安全对策.     

木制品粉尘爆炸事故概率分析与对策研究

近年来,粉尘爆炸事故多发,本文基于事故树分析法,借助FreeFTA软件编制木制品粉尘爆炸事故树,对事故发生的概率进行定性与定量分析,计算得出基本事件发生的关键重要度排序,结果表明,充足氧气、电气设备不防爆、清扫方式不正确、未及时清扫、设备未接地、私接乱拉电线、开关设备短接、电线短路、危险区明火作业9个基本事件的关键重要度较大,应在木制品企业安全管理中进行重点防范。     

聚丙烯车间12m3釜聚合岗危险分析及安全措施

聚合岗位是石油化工厂聚丙烯车间重要且非常危险的岗位,一旦发生意外事故,将会导致人员的重大伤亡和巨大的经济损失。笔者依据聚丙烯车间生产现状,详细地介绍了12m3 釜聚合岗位工艺流程,用“系统安全”的理论和方法对其主要物质、生产工艺、操作过程的危险性进行了辨识,且绘制了主要危险点分布图;通过危险源辨识可知,聚合釜具有的超温、超压特点是该岗位众多危险源中最为严重的潜在危险,应用“事故树法”对聚合釜超温、超压爆炸事故进行了危险分析,找出其爆炸潜在的危险因素有2 4种,该事故树的最小割集共有6 6个,表明聚合釜爆炸可能性是很大的。依据分析结果,针对聚合釜爆炸可能性最大的危险因素,提出了安全对策与措施,以避免或减少爆炸事故的发生     

装载机试车伤人事故树分析

本文通过应用事故树分析法（FTA）对装载机试车伤人事故进行分析,采用布尔代数化简法求出系统的最小径集,给出了事故树中基本事件的结构重要度分析结果。通过对系统的事故树分析,探讨了防止装载机试车伤人事故发生的主要途径,并提出了相应的预防和改进措施。     

Dynamic accident modeling for high-sulfur natural gas gathering station

Dynamic accident modeling for a gas gathering station is implemented to prevent high-sulfur natural gas leakage and develop equipment inspection strategy. The progress of abnormal event occurring in the gas gathering station is modeled by the combination of fault tree and event sequence diagram, based on accident causal chain theory, i.e. the progress is depicted as sequential failure of safety barriers, then, the occurrence probability of the consequence of abnormal event is predicted. Consequences of abnormal events are divided into accidents and accident precursors which include incidents, near misses and so on. The Bayesian theory updates failure probability of safety barrier when a new observation (i.e. accident precursors or accidents data) arrives. Bayesian network then correspondingly updates failure probabilities of basic events of the safety barriers with the ability of abductive reasoning. Consequence occurrence probability is also updated. The results show that occurrence probability trend of different consequences and failure probability trend of safety barriers and basic events of the safety barriers can be obtained using this method. In addition, the critical basic events which play an important role in accidents occurrence are also identified. All of these provide useful information for the maintenance and inspection of the gas gathering station.     

模糊概率事件的故障树分析

许多职业事故的基本致因事件多属于模糊事件,其概率很难确定。本文以煤矿典型危害——内因火灾为例,探讨了模糊概率下的故障树分析问题。煤矿内因火灾故障树虽具有确定的结构形式,其基本致因事件的概率却无法统计。经过长期的生产实践,煤矿中一大批防火专家可以用自然语言较准确地描述基本事件发生的可能性,这就为故障树分析提供了有效信息。文中以模糊数学为基础,引入Delphi方法,征集并整理了25位专家对龙凤矿内因火灾致因的意见,确定了基本事件的模糊概率及其临界重要度排序,提出了行之有效的防治内因火灾措施。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas

Since the late 80s the application of quantitative risk assessment to the issue of land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards emerged as a topic to be addressed within the safety assessment of chemical and process plants. However, in the case of industrial clusters or complex industrial areas specific methodologies are needed to deal with high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. In the present study, innovative methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino and NaTech scenarios are presented. In recent years a set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability in these accident scenarios. In the present study, the application of these models to case-studies was analyzed. The results of the improved models obtained for NaTech quantitative assessment were compared to previous results in the literature. A specific innovative approach was developed to multi-level quantitative assessment of domino scenarios, and its potential was analyzed. The results were examined also evidencing the role and the progress with respect to the pioneering work started on these topics by Franco Foraboschi.     

A conceptual offshore oil and gas process accident model

The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss an accident prevention model for offshore oil and gas processing environments. The accidents that are considered in this work relate specifically to hydrocarbon release scenarios and any escalating events that follow. Using reported industry data, the elements to prevent an accident scenario are identified and placed within a conceptual model to depict the accident progression. The proposed accident model elements are represented as safety barriers designed to prevent the accident scenario from developing. The accident model is intended to be a tool for highlighting vulnerabilities of oil and gas processing operations and to provide guidance on how to minimize their hazards. These vulnerabilities are discussed by applying the 1988 Piper Alpha and the 2005 BP Texas City disaster scenarios to the model.     

电动轮自卸车事故分析与监控系统研究

电动轮自卸车是集发动机、发电机、电动机、液压系统、电控系统于一体的大型运输车辆,发生安全事故会造成重大损失。笔者对造成事故的人为因素和设备因素进行了研究,并用故障树对电动轮起火事故作了较详细的分析,确定了造成事故的重要因素。在此基础上设计了基于CAN总线的安全监控系统。该系统以单片计算机为核心,采用模块化结构,组成控制器局域网络,进行分布式控制。监控系统由硬件系统和软件系统两部分构成。对发电机、电动机、发动机进行技术状态监测的同时监测驾驶员的疲劳状态和违章操作情况,可以减少由人为因素和设备因素造成的安全生产事故。对大型工矿设备的安全技术保障有一定的借鉴作用。     

Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials

To simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events leading to loss of containment are normally described using generic hypotheses. For example, the following hypothesis is applied to the loss of containment from a storage tank: instantaneous release of the complete inventory, continuous release of the complete inventory in 10 min, and continuous release from a hole with a diameter of 10 mm. Once the initiating events have been specified, the corresponding event trees must be drawn to establish the sequences from each initiating event to the diverse final outcomes or accident scenarios, which will depend on the properties of the released material or on other specific factors. In this paper we propose, in a systematic way, a set of short generic event trees for the main loss of containment scenarios involving different types of hazardous materials. Even though most of them have been taken from the literature (BEVI Reference Manual), we have modified some of them, added the corresponding intermediate probabilities (immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc.) obtained from a literature review and expert judgment, and associated the use of each event tree to the hazardous properties of the material (flammability, volatility and toxicity) and to its category according to EC labeling directives.     

基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型

为提高危化品爆炸事故电力应急预警的准确性,建立基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型.基于危化品爆炸事故电力应急典型情景分析,建立综合考虑突发事件、承灾载体和应急管理等风险因素的贝叶斯网络结构.应用概率刻画风险因素信息的不确定性及其相互影响,定量分析事件后果.结合一般条件和典型情景等的应用实例,分析评价方法...     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.