Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling.

The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Comparison between the Chinese EIA Guidelines for Air Dispersion Modelling and the Advanced Air Dispersion Model ADMS

1 INTRODUCTION According to the Environmental Protection Law of P.R. China, and the Environmental Protection Management Method on Construction Projects the Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) (HJ/T 2.1~2. 3-93) have defined how environmental impact assessment should be carried out for construction projects, in terms of the general principle, methodology, contents and requirements. Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment on the Atmosphe…     

A particle-tracking method for simulating the dispersion of non-conservative radionuclides in coastal waters.

A particle-tracking method has been used to simulate the dispersion of non-conservative radionuclides in the sea. Three dimensional turbulent diffusion and the interactions between water, suspended matter and bottom sediments are simulated using a stochastic method. Kinetic transfer coefficients, as in finite difference models, are used to describe the transfers between the liquid and solid phases. Deposition of suspended matter and erosion of sediment are also included in the model. The method has been applied to simulate the dispersion of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu in the English Channel and the results have been compared with those of a finite difference model. The results from both techniques are, in general, in good agreement.     

Three-dimensional modelling of the tide-induced dispersion of radionuclides in the sea

A three–dimensional marine dispersion model for radionuclieds has been developed. The model solves the three–dimensional hydrodynamic equations and, simultaneously, the three–dimensional advective–diffusive dispersion equations. Thus the tide–induced dispersion of radionuclides is obtained. The equations are solved using a finite difference explicit scheme using a time step of a few seconds with appropriate boundary conditions. As an example the model has been applied to study the dispersion of ¹³⁷Cs in the Irish Sea which is released from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at Sellafield. Tidal amplitudes and current profiles obtained with the model have been compared with observations in the Irish Sea: both sets of data are in good agreement. Observed and computed ¹³⁷Cs distributions in waters have also been compared. The model gives a good representation of the dispersion of this radionuclide in the Irish Sea.     

Comparison between the predictions of a Gaussian plume model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model for annual average calculations of long-range dispersion of radionuclides

This study attempts to validate the applicability of a simple Gaussian dispersion model for predicting long-range dispersion of continuous releases from an industrial site, by comparison with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office model NAME has been used to predict annual average concentrations of radionuclides over Western Europe, resulting from discharges from the British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) site at Sellafield, UK. The results are compared here to calculations performed using a conventional Gaussian type of dispersion model, PLUME. The results of the Gaussian model were compared at 14 locations within Western Europe at long range (up to 1700 km). The differences in predictions between the models were explained readily by differences in the way dispersion and deposition processes are represented in the two models. However, differences are generally small compared to the expected precision of the models. The implementation of environmental processes in NAME is more complete and realistic than in PLUME, and as such the results from this model may be considered more realistic. However, given that PLUME is much simpler to use, and appears to over-estimate, rather than under-estimate, environmental concentrations, its use for radiological assessments appears appropriate.     

An assessment of the environmental effects of energy systems, with emphasis on oil

This paper describes the approach of the VESE project undertaken by ENEA to assess the environmental and socioeconomic effects of various energy systems, and it refers to the fundamental choices adopted for the development of the project, to the work plan and to the analytical methods employed. This paper also reports the findings of an oil system case study concerning the Italian province of Piacenza: a set of oil-fired electric power plants, together with industrial and civil installations burning oil products. Fuel consumption and air pollution emissions were characterized through a field survey. The emission inventory of sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulate matter were estimated with reference to area and point sources. A multisource dispersion model (DIMULA) was developed, which took into account certain meteorological peculiarities of the area (e.g., calm weather and/or fog). The model, first applied to the dispersion of sulfur oxides, has given encouraging results. A study of comparative forced expiratory volumes in elementary school children has been chosen to determine the air pollution health effects in the Piacenza province. Plant and animal resources in the province of Piacenza were identified through a field investigation. Published data on crop damage by air pollutants are discussed and statistically analyzed. A dose-response relationship was obtained for the yield loss of alfalfa caused by SO₂.     

On the sensitivity of a marine dispersion model to parameters describing the transfers of radionuclides between the liquid and solid phases

The sensitivity of a marine dispersion model for non-conservative radionuclides, previously developed and validated for the English Channel, to parameters describing the exchanges between the liquid and solid phases (suspended matter and bottom sediments) has been studied using a Monte Carlo method. A probability distribution is assigned to each parameter. They are sampled to obtain a set of model parameters and a model run is carried out. This process is repeated to obtain a distribution of model outputs. Partial correlation coefficients are calculated to assess the relative influence of each parameter on model output. Errors are also assigned to model results. Three situations are studied: an instantaneous release of radionuclides, a continuous release and the case of a contaminated sediment behaving as a long-term source of radionuclides. Calculations have also been carried out for two radionuclides with different geochemical behaviour: (137)Cs and (239,240)Pu. The results indicate that all parameters are relevant, depending on the phase we are interested in obtaining the result and on the source term (instantaneous, continuous or due to sediments). However, parameters that are, in general, more influential are kinetic rates, mixing depth in the sediment and mean radius of suspended and sediment particles. This suggests that including several particle sizes in future radionuclide dispersion models could lead to an improvement in model results. Differences have also been found with respect to the relevance of some parameters depending on the geochemical behaviour of the radionuclide.     

“三生”视角下的城市空间功能变化及调控路径——以长沙市为例

认知快速城镇化背景下城市空间生产、生活和生态功能的变化规律既是人文-经济地理学研究的重要内容，也是城市国土空间开发及其格局优化的内在依据。以长沙都市区为实证区，以遥感影像、城市土地利用调查数据等为主要数据源，选取2000、2009、2016年为研究时间节点，基于土地主体功能的差异构建“三生”功能评价体系，采用空间自相关、冷热点分析和样带分析等方法，探究长沙市“三生”功能的变化特征并提出调控路径。结果表明：（1）长沙都市区整体的生产、生活功能持续强化，但生态功能有所减弱；（2）长沙都市区内部“三生”功能强弱亦发生变化，不同功能空间重组，“三生” 功能的均衡性提高；（3）长沙都市区“三生”综合功能水平持续提升，高水平区域逐渐向城市中心集聚，呈现单核集聚→单核集聚-多核分散→网络均衡化的城市功能空间结构发展模式，但“三生”功能空间单元变化模式各异；（4）应从“三生”功能用地结构的“质”与“量”两方面对长沙都市区空间格局进行综合调控。     

Radioecology in the vicinity of prospected uranium mining sites in a subarctic environment

A radioecological investigation has been carried out in two uranium-rich areas in northern Sweden. Aquatic, terrestrial and atmospheric samples have been analysed, mainly for radionuclides in the uranium series. In one of the areas, about ten times higher concentrations of uranium, thorium and radium were found in lichen close to the mineralization, due to aerial dispersion. In the aquatic system, no signs of enhanced levels were observed. For the short-lived radon daughters in air, there was no correlation between concentrations and distance from mineralization, as a result of the high natural background.     

Modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) including a plutonium scavenging model as well as an advection-diffusion model has been developed for modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean. Calculated 239, 240Pu water profile concentrations and 239, 240Pu inventories in water and sediment of the Pacific Ocean have showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. The presence of local fallout plutonium in central North Pacific waters has been confirmed. The observed 240Pu/239Pu mass ratios confirm that plutonium originating from local fallout from nuclear weapons tests carried out at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls is more rapidly removed from surface waters to deeper waters than plutonium originating from global fallout. The developed OGCM can be used for modelling the dispersion of other non-conservative tracers in the ocean as well.     

A modelling study on 137Cs and 239,240Pu behaviour in the Alborán Sea, western Mediterranean

A model for simulating the dispersion processes of 137Cs and 239,240Pu in the Alborán Sea is described. The model consists of two hydrodynamic models: a 2D depth-averaged model and a two-layer model which provide tidal and geostrophic currents, respectively; a sediment transport model which provides suspended particle concentrations and sedimentation rates over the domain; and the radionuclide dispersion model including interactions of dissolved radionuclides with suspended particles and bed sediments. These processes are formulated using kinetic transfer coefficients. The hydrodynamic and sediment models are run and validated in advance, and their results are then used to simulate the dispersion of 137Cs and 239,240Pu, which are introduced from atmospheric fallout. Radionuclide concentrations in the water column and distributions in bed sediments have been compared with measurements in the sea. Both set of data are, in general, in agreement. The model has also been applied to calculate radionuclide fluxes through the Strait of Gibraltar. These computed fluxes have been compared with previous estimations as well.     

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.     

Using radiotracer techniques for coastal hydrodynamic model evaluation

A three-dimensional (3D) water circulation and contaminant transport model of Manila Bay has been developed with the aim of better understanding the formation and movement of harmful algal blooms. Radiotracer techniques were used to evaluate the model by recording the dispersion of a tracer at depths of 2 and 15 m near the injection point. The selected tracer was 99mTc eluted from a molybdenum/technetium medical generator. The rationale for the choice of the tracer and the location of the injection is discussed. At 2 m the transport was dominated by the prevailing winds, and at 15 m by tidally induced currents. The development of the hydrodynamic model and its experimental evaluation were iterative processes. The experimental study confirmed the need for full 3D modelling of Manila Bay; quantified the impact of the prevailing wind field on contaminant dispersion near the injection point; and allowed the calculation of transverse dispersivity to guide the selection of parameter values used in the overall model.     

TRMM 3B42卫星降水数据在赣江流域径流模拟中的应用

以赣江流域为研究区,基于观测降水和TRMM准实时数据(3B42RTV6、3B42RTV7)和分析数据(3B42V6、3B42V7),驱动VIC水文模型,开展卫星降水产品在赣江流域的水文模拟,评估TRMM降水产品在水文模拟中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)在赣江流域,3B42V7估算的降水与实测降水的对比结果最好,3B42RTV6的估算精度最低,3B42RTV7较3B42RTV6在赣江流域的降水估算精度提升非常明显;(2)在径流模拟方面,3B42V6和3B42V7在日尺度上尽管对洪峰的模拟有所偏差,但模拟结果仍能反映径流变化特征,在月尺度上模拟结果精度较高,纳什系数均在0.9以上,并且二者在4、5月的径流模拟结果较好,7、8月的模拟结果较差,而3B42RTV6对径流的模拟能力较差,日径流量和月径流量均呈现明显低估,3B42RTV7对径流的模拟结果比3B42RTV6有明显改善,可以满足实时水文预报的需求。     

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System for dose assessment in the early stage of accidental releases to the atmosphere

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) is being developed in the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology since 1994. BERS is based on numerical weather forecast meteorological information and a numerical long-range dispersion model accounting for the transport, dispersion, chemical and radioactive transformations of pollutants. In the present paper, the further development of this system for a mixture of radioactive gaseous and aerosol pollutants is described. The basic module for the BERS, the numerical dispersion model EMAP, is upgraded with a “dose calculation block”. Two scenarios for hypothetical accidental atmospheric releases from two NPPs, one in Western, and the other in Eastern Europe, are numerically simulated. The effective doses from external irradiation, from air submersion and ground shinning, effective dose from inhalation and absorbed dose by thyroid gland formed by 37 different radionuclides, significant for the early stage of a nuclear accident, are calculated as dose fields for both case studies and discussed.     

山区县域生态系统安全因子遥感和GIS分析--以重庆市忠县为例

数据的高效获取和信息的实时提取,长期以来一直是困扰区域生态安全研究领域和地学过程研究领域的瓶颈和难题。在对案例研究区——重庆忠县地区TM卫星遥感数据进行波谱信息特征分析的基础上,通过人机交互目视判读解译和模型模拟自动信息提取等多种有效技术和方法,实现用遥感影像数据对山区县域生态环境系统安全因子体系中的3个主要因子：土地覆被、水土流失强度、植被盖度等进行数据提取,并用GIS技术对这些指标因子数据进行空间分析。这在一定程度上解决了中尺度山区县域生态环境系统安全评价指标因子数据提取与地学分析的技术和方法难题。通过GIS空间分析,揭示出忠县部分生态安全因子的时空分异特征,为山区县域生态环境退化评价和生态恢复研究提供了一种新的方法尝试。     

The elementary chorological structure of a species population as exemplified by voles

The results of 25-year monitoring have been used to develop a local approach to analysis of the spatiotemporal population dynamics of rodents. The main processes of the formation of the rodent population structure in a heterogeneous environment have been considered on the basis of experimental quantitative estimates obtained under natural conditions. The possibility of real-time identification of elementary chorological units of a species population has been substantiated. It has been found that complete cycles of vital activity of a model rodent species are usually no longer than 18 months. The strategy of the regional population functioning in species with short individual life cycles is considered at a new angle.